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Da webster guy

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  1. I think we were one McD/Frasier 13 seconds blunder away from winning it all two years ago with basically the same squad. You're forgetting Milano/Poyer/Hyde who are all elite players at their positions, and maybe Tre too. These guys are All Pro level when 100% WR's don't win championships, it's QB's and to a lesser extent coaching/gameplanning.
  2. You mean the rookie OC whose offense scored the second most ppg in the league last year? Yeah he's no good.
  3. You don't have to defend yourself to anyone, this is a great thread idea. I will probably lurk and not offer too much but I have a friend who digs into college as deep as anyone and has had some very big years. One thing I've heard from the ultra experienced gamblers is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early. Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened. This new world of legalized online betting has created a ton of casual bettors who generally don’t consider odds or the point spread too strongly. They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet. Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog. One more technique to use if you know which side you like (Bills): decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price. If it doesn’t, don’t bet. Here's another thought: Opening line in the morning: Bills – 6 (-110) Fins+6 (-110) Line in the evening: Bills-9 (-110) Fins +9 (-110) This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Bills in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual. A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money (or sharps) think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value. If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Bills are available anywhere else at -6. Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves (as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks) lines move at different speeds in different books. We've seen some pretty big discrepancies just between draft kings, caesars, fan duel etc Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception and of course sometimes line movement is orchestrated by sportsbooks to entice people to bet on a specific side of the bet because they're too heavily imbalanced. Last thought: If you and someone you trust completely disagree on a bet but are both going to bet it anyway, leave the sportsbooks out of it and just bet each other then whip out the venmo at the end of the game and square up. No sense letting the fat cats take 10% for doing nothing. Also if you don't think Damar Hamlin isn't winning comeback player of the year you're insane. The dude was clinically dead and a year later he's out there hammering ball carriers. Sure Tua had a concussion or two, but for god's sake man our boy came back from the afterlife to win back his starting job. Bet your grandma's pension on that one and take her to Hawaii when you cash out......
  4. Obviously people who clicked on the link. Like you and me.
  5. Agreed. Roger is definitely a weenie and more of a lawyer pawn than an innovative leader but we're stuck with this guy for awhile longer so might as well embrace it.
  6. I think Basham was our most disruptive pass rusher over the last three or four games. You talk like he's a bust, I don't agree at all. Look at his snap counts and production, he's still developing. Also, drafting heavy for Dline the past few years was obviously the right play considering we couldn't put much pressure on Burrow even with their sub par Oline. Our two best Dlinemen are Von and Daquon, then Ed and the rest. We know Von has a lot of miles on him, but rolling the dice for a superbowl run made perfect sense. He won us the KC game with that last minute sack about 2 seconds before Mahomes was gonna find Kelce for the win. This is why we have training camp, the best guys will rise to the top. Our challenge is we have an injury prone DE, Phillips is great inside but also hurt a lot, gotta deal with Ed's 5th year now, on top of Tremaine's situation. Itll work out, we'll be back.
  7. Top 5 NFL offense averaging over 30pts a week for 3 years now. Laid a 10 pt egg at home vs Bengals, is everyone now saying that the primary reason was our receivers weren't skilled enough to get separation? Because from my perspective our guards and tackles were the ones who weren't skilled enough to stop the Bengals average Dline in pass pro AND run game, and our Dline sorely missed DaQuon and an impactful edge rusher. That and our QB had some issues seeing the underneath stuff. Our receivers are just as good as either team that played in the Superbowl. They each had one stud in Kelce and AJ but that's about it. The Bengals have the best trio of pass catchers in the league and they got held to 20 by a mediocre KC defense because they couldn't win the trench battle. Its all about the big boy play. Keep adding to the trenches, get big nasty agile athletes in there. The fact that we've been doing that with limited success in recent years is all the more reason to keep at it until we get it right.
  8. Yeah I've said this before but the two guys that had the best training camp as pass catchers were Crowder and Morris at TE/Hback. Crowder was limited with that injury but when he was cleared to practice the dude looked like the #1 WR that he was in the past. Honestly Morris with another year can be a huge weapon too if you notice he can fly and catch. I think a lot of the concern about targets isn't that we need another guy, we just need our guys to be healthy and ready to go, and we need Dorsey to get real serious with Josh in the offseason and study the film which will help Josh look to other guys like Shakir, Cook (our only big play YAC guy who never gets thrown to for some reason) etc. We score an average of 30 points a game for 3 years now, and even though we sucked vs Cinci with a lame 10pt effort, I don't think the film will show it was from WR's not getting separation. It's going to be trench players AGAIN being the weak link on both sides of the ball, and a rookie OC who probably was in over his head trying to live up to Daboll's gamecalling success.
  9. I agree but I would ride with Dorsey another year. We scored second highest points in the NFL, he was a rookie coach, give him 1 offseason and year 2 to upgrade his system.
  10. Dude you're misremembering. It took Shady about one day to fall in love with his teammates and the Buffalo experience. There isnt one player, coach, post or interview that says otherwise.
  11. Its just like stock pickers or gamblers: in reality you have no clue, but you think you do because in many cases in the past you've been correct, which emboldens you to think you know better. A lot of those chumps were saying how Brady in playoff mode is gonna crush Dallas and how the Chargers were gonna whip the Jags. No clue. just flippin coins.
  12. And our Oline was opening holes. Thats always the first thing I watch early on, how are we handling them upfront, because it usually tells you who has the better chance. If Cook/Motor are slashing them for 7 yds a carry it generally means we're enroute to a 35 point game, which is good because they'll score a bunch on us too. Vegas spread is 5 pts, seems a little generous to me but overall I'm glad we finally face off again to settle the score. In other news, our home crowd needs a tune up. Tons of people making zero noise when Fins were snapping the ball but then being loud after we score. Cmon people lets not act like Miami fans.
  13. We need to rush with four and get to Joe. There are lots of moving parts to a gameplan but none of it will work unless we get hurries and pressures w four because Joe and his 3 WR's will kill us on most blitzes. Thankfully the Cinci Oline is beat up and not great because our pass rush isn't either.
  14. Seems like Lamar is really a standup guy though, and I don't think he gets enough credit for his character and desire to win. He got paid 23M bucks this year to play like a dozen games, its not like making $2M a game is being drastically underpaid. Yes he wanted a new deal, and he'll get it either in Balt or somewhere else (they won't franchise him, he'd sit and everyone loses) but I don't believe his sprain is healed enough for him to move around out there. They say it was a 4-6 weeker and he's at 4. He wouldn't fold up his tent and go home with all the guys that he loves wanting him to play, (and make another $46,500 per player if they advance, which is 10% of some players salaries) I believe the guy, he just cant be a good qb if he can't move well and he's still too injured to pull this off.
  15. The funny thing is there is a pretty likely chance Cinci Bills will play in 2 weeks, they should have just waited for the rematch and all would be well.
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