About the #1 Seed

[BillsFan619]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Ok just looked at the Ravens schedule again.  

 

So long as Pittsburgh keeps trying (week 17) there are 4 legit potential losses minimum in there.  Of course they get the Rams in Baltimore.

 

Minnesota, 2 v Pittsburgh, Green Bay, 2 v Cleveland.

 

 

 

I feel a bit better.  

 

The Chargers and Titans have the easier schedules.  But will need to match us the rest of the way so....   

Don’t overlook the Bengals either. They could be a tough out for the Ravens as well.

[Hebert19]

11 hours ago, Ross Murdock said:

Doesn't matter. (The Ravens are a lock at this point).The Bills have NO RUNNING Game!! You can't win consistently in crunch time, and especially in the playoffs with NO RUNNING GAME. The league now knows this. Most of the Bills running backs numbers are inflated as they have been running the ball late in blowouts against BAD teams. Name a Super Bowl winning team that had NO RUNIING GAME? None. McBean has been great, but their blind spot regarding the running game will cost the Bills a championship this season.   

Ravens a lock?   

 

They have:

 

Browns 

Steelers x2

Rams

Packers

Bengals x2

Bears

Vikings

 

They could lose any of those games.  Id guess they lose at least 2 division games plus rams and packers. 

[qwksilver]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Ok just looked at the Ravens schedule again.  

 

So long as Pittsburgh keeps trying (week 17) there are 4 legit potential losses minimum in there.  Of course they get the Rams in Baltimore.

 

Minnesota, 2 v Pittsburgh, Green Bay, 2 v Cleveland.

 

 

 

I feel a bit better.  

 

The Chargers and Titans have the easier schedules.  But will need to match us the rest of the way so....   

Plus let's not forget the Ravens needed a 66 yard field goal to beat Detroit and they blocked another field goal VS Colts. Every week can be a game of inches. They could easily be 3-3. 

 

I think 13-4 could get the # 1 seed depending on tie breakers but as someone stated we've only played 6 games, long way to go....

Edited October 19, 2021 by qwksilver

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Ok just looked at the Ravens schedule again.  

 

So long as Pittsburgh keeps trying (week 17) there are 4 legit potential losses minimum in there.  Of course they get the Rams in Baltimore.

 

Minnesota, 2 v Pittsburgh, Green Bay, 2 v Cleveland.

 

 

 

I feel a bit better.  

 

The Chargers and Titans have the easier schedules.  But will need to match us the rest of the way so....   

 

I mean the Ravens can't keep pulling wins out of rabbit hats all year long the way they have...they are due for a few losses. When you need a 4th and 19 miracle conversion and the longest FG in NFL history at the buzzer to beat the Lions they have the ability to lose to anyone, just like the Titans do after losing to the Jets.

[FilthyBeast]

I think after last night it's crystal clear this team needs to have the #1 seed and home field throughout to have a chance to get the SB this year.

 

Yes good teams lose to other good teams on the road, but given the Bills flaws it's hard to see them overcoming them on the road in the playoffs, particularly their lack of physicality in the trenches which was also the reason they ultimately lost in KC last year in the AFCCG.

 

With that said, still going to be a tough path to get there even with a favorable schedule the rest of the way trying to leapfrog a handful of other 4-2 or better teams in conference right now.

[Greg S]

10 hours ago, Ross Murdock said:

Because of Allen, who's NOT a running back. If they don't find a consistent running game, the season is a mirage. The Bills RB's have been piling up yards late in games because the Bills have had big leads against bad teams. I don't count garbage time yards in the 4th quarter. Your numbers are meaningless. The Bills RB's are a huge albatross on this team.. Period.     

 

A large percentage of the Ravens rushing yards comes from Jackson. 

[Freddie's Dead]

At this point, we should be happy to make the playoffs.  We weren't out-schemed or out-coached last night.  We were out-physicaled in the trenches, like we were against the Squeelers, and that is not something that generally improves as the season goes on.  Unfortunately, when we are out-physicaled, JA17 has to be perfect.  The missed TD to Diggs and the failure to get the FD at the end of the game were all that was required for us to lose the game.  All this First Seed and MVP talk needs to stop, and we need to focus on winning the next game. 

[Boatdrinks]

It’s even more important than it used to be, as the 2 seed was also awarded a first round bye in the past. An extra game matters at that point in the season.

51 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

At this point, we should be happy to make the playoffs.  We weren't out-schemed or out-coached last night.  We were out-physicaled in the trenches, like we were against the Squeelers, and that is not something that generally improves as the season goes on.  Unfortunately, when we are out-physicaled, JA17 has to be perfect.  The missed TD to Diggs and the failure to get the FD at the end of the game were all that was required for us to lose the game.  All this First Seed and MVP talk needs to stop, and we need to focus on winning the next game. 

Fwiw, I don’t think the Bills have been talking about MVPs or the 1 seed. I’m sure they were focused on winning the game, but simply got beat at the point of attack. I’ll agree, I don’t think they will improve much in that regard throughout the season. They’re built to outscore teams with the passing game and to play with a lead. When that fails, the games become a toss up. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

This team is like undefeated in their history at home in the playoffs and hasn’t won a road playoff game in like 30 years. It’s absolutely matters 

[YoloinOhio]

12 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yes.  It will help.  

 

But its just not THE most important thing.  You telling me a team like Tennessee couldn't come into Highmark and do that in January?

 

 

Health and getting hot at the right time is.

 

See Tampa (3 road wins) and KC (injuries to oline) last year.  

 

It’s more about the bye week for me given how early our bye is. But I predicted Baltimore to get the #1 seed before the season,  so I wasn’t really expecting it. 

[YattaOkasan]

4 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm at the point where I'd just do away with kickoffs period. Place the ball at the 25 and go from there.

 

I'm getting there with punt returns as well. Not quite, but could be convinced. Not sure how to handle that one, but a play with only penalties is anything but exciting.

4th and 15 from your own 35?  Keeps punts relevant to high octane offenses.  Also odds of converting 4th and 15 are better than onside kick and ultimately more exciting.

Edited October 19, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[Utah John]

12 hours ago, DapperCam said:

The Ravens needed a record breaking FG to beat the Lions, and a super flukey fumble to beat the Chiefs. AND a last minute TD/2 point conversion along with a missed 47 yard FG to beat the Colts.

 

Things have really broken their way in close games, I wouldn’t say they are a lock at all.

That's all true.  And, the FG against the Lions came when the officials let the Ravens not be penalized for delay of game - the clock ran out at least 1.5 seconds before their previous snap,

 

And their miracle comeback against the Colts came after all the Colts' CBs were hurt.  (Note, the Ravens took full advantage of that, and the Bills didn't.)

 

The Ravens are a good team but will lose games in their division.  

[BigDingus]

I find it comforting (and amusing), that we Bills fans are even talking about the 1 seed & a first round bye in the first place! 🤣

 

Remember when we all nearly died of pure joy watching some ginger from another team secure the Bills a lowly wildcard appearance?! 

[May Day 10]

The Bills came a couple yards away from having a track to waltz to the #1 seed.   Now, they'll have to work at it.  Maybe that isn't a bad thing in the big picture.

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

With only 6 games in so far there's not much separation.

 

The true competitors for that #1 seed will become clearer after 11-12 games.

 

Right now the Bengals and Bills have the same record, so standings are a little misleading.

[YoloinOhio]

19 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

The Bills came a couple yards away from having a track to waltz to the #1 seed.   Now, they'll have to work at it.  Maybe that isn't a bad thing in the big picture.

 

 

I had to keep myself from kind of, sort of wishing for a loss last night (I know I know) because I was a bit worried that if they cruised again to another win, they would get complacent (players, not coaches) and not be focused on continuous improvement during the bye week. It wasn’t so much hoping they would lose to the Titans specifically (I hate them)  but knowing they would certainly lose again at some point and this time in the schedule would be the ideal spot to do that. 
 

the season is long and it ebbs and flows. In losses there are hard lessons that can be applied toward what is hopefully an undefeated post season. Don’t need an undefeated regular season. This is what makes the nfl so much different from college mindset. 

 

Edited October 19, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yes.  It will help.  

 

But its just not THE most important thing.  You telling me a team like Tennessee couldn't come into Highmark and do that in January?

 

 

Health and getting hot at the right time is.

 

See Tampa (3 road wins) and KC (injuries to oline) last year.  

 

It's criminal TB had to play in Washington last season lol I wonder if they ever change that 

[dave mcbride]

16 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yes.  It will help.  

 

But its just not THE most important thing.  You telling me a team like Tennessee couldn't come into Highmark and do that in January?

 

 

Health and getting hot at the right time is.

 

See Tampa (3 road wins) and KC (injuries to oline) last year.  

 

Getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs is massively helpful. Just ask the Patriots.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I can’t see the 1 seed happening now. I think, if you told me we were going to manhandle the Chiefs, we better be 6-0. The Steelers loss was inexcusable and last night hurts a lot after we already had that slip up. I’d say at this point get back to work on being a lot more physically up front and hang on to win the division. Hope you can somehow get 2 home playoff games again but I can’t see the 1 being an option with 2 conference losses already. I’d be surprised if we still end up ahead of KC because it’s only a matter of time before they click. Last night really sucks.

[machine gun kelly]

The bye is one part, but home field is the critical part.  To me it does matter and playing backups is not a bye in week 18.  
 

Going into week 18 pretty much #1 is a lock we can still sit or a pitch count with the banged up guys.

 

For me this is a bunch of my TBD friends POed we lost and didn’t measure up to our expectations.  It doesn’t mean we won’t rebound.

[wagne591]

19 hours ago, Ross Murdock said:

Doesn't matter. (The Ravens are a lock at this point).The Bills have NO RUNNING Game!! You can't win consistently in crunch time, and especially in the playoffs with NO RUNNING GAME. The league now knows this. Most of the Bills running backs numbers are inflated as they have been running the ball late in blowouts against BAD teams. Name a Super Bowl winning team that had NO RUNIING GAME? None. McBean has been great, but their blind spot regarding the running game will cost the Bills a championship this season.   

The Ravens are no lock...have you seen their schedule they still have to play everyone in their division twice (Ciny, Browns, Pitt) that could be two maybe three losses there they have the Rams and Packers so to say they are a lock is crazy.  The Bills are more of a lock then they are.  Remember last year we had the same record at this point so I am not worried.  

[Reks Ryan]

12 hours ago, Gordio said:

The Bills really don't try to run it.  Our Rbs our fine.  The schedule really opens up now.  I said all along I will be happy with 1-1 result on the KC/Tenn game, those are road Monday night games.  Even the Bills super bowl teams rarely won those type of games when they were played at night when they rolled into arrowhead or three rivers.  We will have our division wrapped up by Thanksgiving.  Seeding not sure, the good thing is Baltimore and KC division, those teams should beat each other up.  Tenn has got it a bit easier.  That division is almost as bad as ours.  

After the Pittsburgh game, i would have agreed to accept a 4 - 2 record at this point, figuring a split on the 2 night games.  But once the Bills started destroying the weak teams I expected them to beat KC and the Titans.   The Bills are really good team, an uncharacteristically bad defensive game plan cost them yesterday.  Good point on the Bills Super bowl teams, that lost some tough road night games.  

 

Tenessee's division is really bad and the last 6 games of their schedule are easy.    Between Titans, Ravens, Chargers, and Chiefs, at least one of those teams will end the season with only3 or  4 losses.  That means the Bills can only lose 1 more more to have a clear shot at #1 seed. 

[Zerovoltz]

The Bills schedule is still fairly light compared to other contenders....the 1 seed will take care of itself for you guys if you take care of your business.

 

The reason why that Titans loss sucks is because it has the potential to negate your win VS KC and accentuate your loss VS PITT.

 

If KC wins next week VS TENN, then it really brings about the possibility that in a 3 way tie of TENN, KC and BUFF, the head to head win over the Chiefs you have, is thrown out...then it goes to other tie breakers like conference record, common opponentes and all that.  KC wins vs TENN and upcoming PITT and so on (too early to say what all factors in if it even matters)  

 

It's not a big deal now....because as I said, the Bills have a much easier path going forward than most.  Certainly KC still has some tough games on the schedule.  The lost to TENN just puts a wrench in the works in the end if it comes to it, that you wouldn't have had to worry about if you won this game.  

[SCBills]

14 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:

I just don't want to see the Titans in the playoffs. They are just a bad match-up for the Bills. 

We played poorly and the Titans played very well.  Game still came down to the wire.  
 

We’re not losing to them 3x in a row. 

[Motor26]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

The Bills schedule is still fairly light compared to other contenders....the 1 seed will take care of itself for you guys if you take care of your business.

 

The reason why that Titans loss sucks is because it has the potential to negate your win VS KC and accentuate your loss VS PITT.

 

If KC wins next week VS TENN, then it really brings about the possibility that in a 3 way tie of TENN, KC and BUFF, the head to head win over the Chiefs you have, is thrown out...then it goes to other tie breakers like conference record, common opponentes and all that.  KC wins vs TENN and upcoming PITT and so on (too early to say what all factors in if it even matters)  

 

It's not a big deal now....because as I said, the Bills have a much easier path going forward than most.  Certainly KC still has some tough games on the schedule.  The lost to TENN just puts a wrench in the works in the end if it comes to it, that you wouldn't have had to worry about if you won this game.  

Yes, they may have just beat the Bills, but the Titans lost to the Jets. The Bills will still control their own destiny to the 1 seed because of how easy the schedule is. Just need to take care of business.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

20 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Ravens are now the favorites for the one seed but it's early.  Tough loss but this team always bounces back.  I'm hoping we can string a lot of wins in a row now with an easy schedule using this as fuel.

Afc is pretty wide open this year with the chiefs stumbling a bit early thanks to us and then us losing to the titans 🤣 

35 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

Yes, they may have just beat the Bills, but the Titans lost to the Jets. The Bills will still control their own destiny to the 1 seed because of how easy the schedule is. Just need to take care of business.

Titans are a good team they lost to the jets missing Julio and aj brown...lots of injuries now though 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Getting the #1 seed and getting to face the weakest playoff team, the #7 seed is nice.  But to me the big deal is getting that extra bye week.  The Bills made the SB 4 years in a row, 3 of those years they had the opening bye.  IMO that was a big reason for it.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I can’t see the 1 seed happening now. I think, if you told me we were going to manhandle the Chiefs, we better be 6-0. The Steelers loss was inexcusable and last night hurts a lot after we already had that slip up. I’d say at this point get back to work on being a lot more physically up front and hang on to win the division. Hope you can somehow get 2 home playoff games again but I can’t see the 1 being an option with 2 conference losses already. I’d be surprised if we still end up ahead of KC because it’s only a matter of time before they click. Last night really sucks.

 

Hang on to win the division?  Come on bro.  I get the loss hurts but you are way too melodramatic sometimes.

[Greg S]

Two games of interest this bye week. Chiefs at Titans and Bengals at Ravens. Go Chiefs and Bengals.

[Johnnycage46]

28 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Two games of interest this bye week. Chiefs at Titans and Bengals at Ravens. Go Chiefs and Bengals.

Exactly.  With these outcomes, the tiebreaker we have over the Chiefs still helps us and the one we do NOT have over the Titans gets reduced.  And if the Ravens lose giving them their 2nd loss that only helps.  We should be favored in all but maybe 1 game the rest of the season (obviously we were favored this past Monday but still lol...) so we should be able to stack a bunch of W's and still keep the 1 seed in play as the year goes along.

[Greg S]

14 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

Exactly.  With these outcomes, the tiebreaker we have over the Chiefs still helps us and the one we do NOT have over the Titans gets reduced.  And if the Ravens lose giving them their 2nd loss that only helps.  We should be favored in all but maybe 1 game the rest of the season (obviously we were favored this past Monday but still lol...) so we should be able to stack a bunch of W's and still keep the 1 seed in play as the year goes along.

 

Correct me if I am wrong but if KC beats TEN then we leapfrog over them. We are 4-2 they will be 4-3. Obviously we have to win our extra game when they are on their bye week but the Bills would be ahead of TEN.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Hang on to win the division?  Come on bro.  I get the loss hurts but you are way too melodramatic sometimes.

Nah I’m not trying to say the division is in serious jeopardy or anything. But I’m saying, nothing is a given. I’m not assuming all of these wins here. The Patriots are playing good teams very tough and they should only get better. Win the division and see where we are at

[NoHuddleKelly12]

We really could’ve used the bye last year in dealing with our WR corps injuries…now that only the top seeds in both conferences even get one anymore, yes it is a big deal imho. 

[hjnick]

On 10/18/2021 at 11:37 PM, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know are the refs going to call bull#### foul that’s going to take away a kick off return for a touchdown I don’t even care if it was a legit call refs don’t call all of them

Also, there was holding on the Titans on Henry’s first long run… of course the zebras kept the flag in their pocket for that one… 🙄

[jkeerie]

The number 1 seed is important for the bye but, if the Bills are good enough to not only get to but win a SB, they should be able to do it from anywhere.  We beat KC in KC.  We lost to TEN in TEN but were one yard away from winning that game and were hurt by self-inflicted wounds.  After the bye, I want to see the Bills come out swinging with a stout D and better Red Zone production.  If we see that, we will be on the winning side the rest of the way.

[FilthyBeast]

Here's something to also consider regarding the #1 seed. Even if the Bills get it, there's a high probability they could face the Titans again either as the #4 seed or wildcard in the divisional round

 

Same deal with a team like KC or PIT who could make the playoffs as a wildcard and low seed that upsets someone in the first round.

 

But at the end of the day homefield matters and it's the only path I see the Bills getting to a SB because they aren't going to win on the road in the playoffs IMO and McD is 0-3 in road playoff games for a reason.

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Here's something to also consider regarding the #1 seed. Even if the Bills get it, there's a high probability they could face the Titans again either as the #4 seed or wildcard in the divisional round

 

Same deal with a team like KC or PIT who could make the playoffs as a wildcard and low seed that upsets someone in the first round.

 

But at the end of the day homefield matters and it's the only path I see the Bills getting to a SB because they aren't going to win on the road in the playoffs IMO and McD is 0-3 in road playoff games for a reason.

I’m rooting for I wanna another shot at that team

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Nihilarian]

To the OP....go back in time and ask KC if home field meant anything...

 

Back in the 90's Marty S was so upset that the road to the SB went thru Buffalo that he wanted the AFC Championship game played at a neutral site. He didn't get his way 😄

 

That #1 seed with homefield is everything IMO...extra week off to rest and get healthy. Opposing teams hate playing in Buffalo in front of all those crazed Bills fans. 

 

Miami

@Jacksonville

@ Jets

Colts

@ Saints

Patriots

@ Bucs

Panthers

@Patriots

Falcons

Jets

 

The Ravens have yet to play Cleveland, Cincy, Pitt 2x each...plus GB and LA Rams

 

[Greg S]

18 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Getting the #1 seed and getting to face the weakest playoff team, the #7 seed is nice.  But to me the big deal is getting that extra bye week.  The Bills made the SB 4 years in a row, 3 of those years they had the opening bye.  IMO that was a big reason for it.

 

If they get the #1 seed they would be off WC weekend and it would be 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6, 4 vs 5. Also that #7 seed could be the Chiefs if the Chargers win the division. But getting the bye is huge. Extra week to get healthy and a potential 2 games in OP