2021 Expectations for the Front 7

[Mango]

Thinking about this today. The Bills defense was relatively mediocre last season as a whole. Given the continued investment in this years and past years drafts, what are the expectations for the front 7 this season? Is there a line for pass/fail based on draft and salary cost? 
 

We have invested: 

 

3x 1st round picks in Edmunds, Oliver, Groot. 

2x 2nd round picks in Basham and Epenesa

A major extension to Milano. 

3rd highest paid DL in the league for 2021 (source: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/)

[Warcodered]

 

[WMDman]

top 7ish in sacks is my hope and expectation 

[LeGOATski]

Top 5 D overall, by whatever metric you want to use.

Top 10 in sacks.

 

I expect them to bend a bit in the run game and that's fine. It's kind of part of their philosophy. And with Star back, they have some philosophical wiggle room there, if you know what I mean.

 

But I definitely expect them to break the quarterback.

 

I also expect the backend to cash in. I want to see Edmunds post his best INT count. Tre and the safeties too.

[Rc2catch]

The only number I really care for is a top 10 defense. I hope for an improved pass rush, but not if we can never stop the run. Hate to see a great pass rush and focus on stopping the run and then have the back end not play well. Just need solid production from all levels and to be consistent, the offense should do the rest. 

[Warcodered]

 

[FilthyBeast]

I don't care where this defense ranks overall in terms of YPG and total defense.

 

The key metrics are PPG, pressure rate, sacks, turnovers, etc. It's also a make or break year for Edmunds and can't use the age excuse anymore entering his 4th season.

[US Egg]

Bills expect a lot from their front four, given their low blitz rate.

 

Doubt they change that, but front 'D' play should be improved.

[BaaadThingsMan]

In order to achieve their team goals this year, the defensive front 7 will need to dominate at times and make the plays that need to be made in the tight games and situations which will inevitably define their season. 

[Warcodered]

15 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

Bills expect a lot from their front four, given their low blitz rate.

 

Doubt they change that, but front 'D' play should be improved.

You got to be able to win without the Blitz or else really good teams/QBs will make you pay.

[papazoid]

mediocre.....i'd say smack dab in the midlle....around #15th

[ALLEN1QB]

Bring in Rex Ryan and they will be #1

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

Thinking about this today. The Bills defense was relatively mediocre last season as a whole. Given the continued investment in this years and past years drafts, what are the expectations for the front 7 this season? Is there a line for pass/fail based on draft and salary cost? 
 

We have invested: 

 

3x 1st round picks in Edmunds, Oliver, Groot. 

2x 2nd round picks in Basham and Epenesa

A major extension to Milano. 

3rd highest paid DL in the league for 2021 (source: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/)

 

I will admit, I personally have high expectations for not only the front 7 but also the defense as a whole this year.  If our front 7 plays up to its potential, the combination of its depth, youth, veteran experience and a talented secondary gives us the potential to be special on defense this season.

 

I am expecting a big season from Edmunds, especially having size upfront again and him being healthy.  I think Oliver has his best season yet, and I expect a breakout season from AJE as well.  

 

We may not have a league leading type sack player this year, but I think that will be more about being so deep and rotating players a lot.  But I do think we can be one of the leaders in sacks as a team this season.  

[Virgil]

3 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

You sonofa…..  I only read the thread title and came in here to post that video.  
 

I tip my cap to you 

[John from Riverside]

I am just glad they went the draft pick route......when Addison and Hughes are no longer with the team (which will be soon if not this year) the amount of money going to D line drops considerabley

[Putin]

3 hours ago, WMDman said:

top 7ish in sacks is my hope and expectation 

If we can get to 45+ sacks that would be a good improvement IMO 

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

mediocre.....i'd say smack dab in the midlle....around #15th

Go back to New England **************************

Edited August 16, 2021 by Putin

[Mark Long Beach]

I'm hopeful for a top 5 defense this year.  But it all depends on how well our youth does. As they go, our entire defense goes. Last year, our defense was broken because we had to blitz more than almost every other team.   Our defense is designed to NOT blitz and must generate pressure from front 4.  That's fundamentally why our whole defense struggled so much despite a fantastic secondary.   We have a lot of promising young players.  If they pan out, our defense will be very, very good.

[RiotAct]

 Expectation:  Top 10 overall ranked defense (preferably top 1)

[TFBillsfan]

Hopefully they are an all around improved unit this year. Particularly with stopping the run and improved tackling. Honestly, I’ll be surprised if our pass rush improves this year. I’m not counting on the two rookies or AJ to have an immediate impact. If having Star back helps then we really need Oliver and Edmunds to be disrupters and impact players on D. Otherwise I expect our D to be like last year. Overall, I hope we stay healthy. 

[Mango]

My general thought is, the defense will live and die by the front 7. (Crazy I know) But we have depth issues at DB and have invested a poop ton into DL and LB. the secondary depth will continue to get worked if we don’t start hitting on those draft picks and FA$$$ in a very big way very soon. 

[berg1029]

The DL was admittedly bad last year.  Thus, my hope is to see improvement.  We have a bunch of younger players that should be ready to make significant contributions this year plus the return of everyone's favorite space eater (⭐)

[wppete]

Groot 15 sacks. Epenesa 11 sacks. Oliver 10 sacks.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

It's strange that we've invested so much more draft capital in our d-line compared to our secondary, yet our db's have outplayed them.

 

Tre is our only 1st rounder (and a late one at #26)

 

Micah was another team's 5th round pick 

 

Poyer was formerly the Eagles' 7th round pick 

 

Taron was a 4th, Neal a 5th, Hamlin a 6th, Jackson a 7th

 

Levi Wallace was undrafted 

 

Also, our top 4 DL make twice what our top 4 DB's make total.

 

There are no more excuses for mediocrity. Our D-line held us back last year and they need to play up to their ability this year for us to win a championship.

Edited August 17, 2021 by Allen2Diggs

[No_Matter_What]

13 hours ago, Mango said:

Thinking about this today. The Bills defense was relatively mediocre last season as a whole. Given the continued investment in this years and past years drafts, what are the expectations for the front 7 this season? Is there a line for pass/fail based on draft and salary cost? 
 

We have invested: 

 

3x 1st round picks in Edmunds, Oliver, Groot. 

2x 2nd round picks in Basham and Epenesa

A major extension to Milano. 

3rd highest paid DL in the league for 2021 (source: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/)

Did you mean DL or front 7? I'd say it is better to compare front 7s due to teams playing 3-4. If you look at the chart you posted Denver has only §15M invested in DLine, since Chubb and Miller count as linebackers.

 

So if you compare front 7s, it looks like this:

 

1. Bears 80M

2. Cards 78M

3. Bills 72M

4. Chiefs 70M

5, Raiders 67M

 

League average 56M.

Edited August 17, 2021 by No_Matter_What

[eball]

I get why fans are worried about the D.  I mean, Edmunds has no instincts, Milano is always hurt, Star is useless, Hughes is old, Addison sucks, Oliver is a bust, there’s no legitimate 2nd CB, Poyer/Hyde are due to break down, and if anyone gets hurt there’s crap behind them.  Also, you can’t expect rookies like Groot to make a real impact.  It’s a miracle if they don’t finish last in D.

 

Have a nice day.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Don’t forget, Star and Butler were also first-round picks by the Pre-Bills.

[LABILLBACKER]

Bring on the NASCAR. Rush them all.....

[FilthyBeast]

On 8/16/2021 at 8:29 PM, wppete said:

Groot 15 sacks. Epenesa 11 sacks. Oliver 10 sacks.

 

If we get even half of that from these three players we are probably a top 3 defense and winning the SB this year.

[TheBeaneBandit]

On 8/17/2021 at 4:51 AM, No_Matter_What said:

Did you mean DL or front 7? I'd say it is better to compare front 7s due to teams playing 3-4. If you look at the chart you posted Denver has only §15M invested in DLine, since Chubb and Miller count as linebackers.

 

So if you compare front 7s, it looks like this:

 

1. Bears 80M

2. Cards 78M

3. Bills 72M

4. Chiefs 70M

5, Raiders 67M

 

League average 56M.

On a lighter note....by next year that number should drop to about 50M after the Hughes and Addison contracts are gone. The youth movement couldn't of come at a better time!!! I believe next draft may focus on team speed: CB,WR, etc....

[BuffaloBill]

On 8/17/2021 at 7:33 AM, eball said:

I get why fans are worried about the D.  I mean, Edmunds has no instincts, Milano is always hurt, Star is useless, Hughes is old, Addison sucks, Oliver is a bust, there’s no legitimate 2nd CB, Poyer/Hyde are due to break down, and if anyone gets hurt there’s crap behind them.  Also, you can’t expect rookies like Groot to make a real impact.  It’s a miracle if they don’t finish last in D.

 

Have a nice day.

 

 

 

Did you have a rough night last night?

 

[TBBills Fan]

like others have said.  Top 10.  I want the D to be a strength not a liability.  If that happens the sky is the limit

 

 

on a semi related note, I had a dream and in that dream I was watching on the TV news about an Edmunds extension...for 119 million.  WTF  Ive had dejavu before but the only way that happens is if he has a monster year.

[ColoradoBills]

4 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

On a lighter note....by next year that number should drop to about 50M after the Hughes and Addison contracts are gone. The youth movement couldn't of come at a better time!!! I believe next draft may focus on team speed: CB,WR, etc....

 

Almost makes you think there was some sort of plan or something.

[TheBeaneBandit]

23 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Almost makes you think there was some sort of plan or something.

It's true, they consulted me beforehand lol!!!

[freddyjj]

On 8/17/2021 at 4:51 AM, No_Matter_What said:

Did you mean DL or front 7? I'd say it is better to compare front 7s due to teams playing 3-4. If you look at the chart you posted Denver has only §15M invested in DLine, since Chubb and Miller count as linebackers.

 

So if you compare front 7s, it looks like this:

 

1. Bears 80M

2. Cards 78M

3. Bills 72M

4. Chiefs 70M

5, Raiders 67M

 

League average 56M.

Bills outlay will drop precipitously next year, if, as expected, Jerry and Addison walk away.  Like $20mm right there.  And Star will not be far behind,  

[Rubes]

Expectations?

 

I expect we'll all come to realize just how important Star is to the defensive front.

 

Plus, we'll be playing a lot more unproven QBs this year than last year, so I do expect an improvement overall just from that.

 

[BigAl2526]

I expect significant improvement this year over last season.  Probably the biggest reason for that is Star Lotulelei's return to the team combined with increased effectiveness of Harrison Phillips.  I think having either of those two guys on the line will prevent offensive lines from doubling the 3 tech guys next to them.  That will give Oliver and Zimmer (I think Vernon Butler may be gone) more opportunity to make plays in the running game and be disruptive in the passing game.  Buffalo also has several flex players they can insert inside on passing downs, players they didn't have a year ago: Rousseau, Basham and Efe Obada.  They could probably even stick Daryll Johnson inside.  On the outside, the quality of their depth is much improved over last season.  Since the Bills employ a heavy rotation on the defensive line, this should make a huge difference. 

 

Obviously, the starters at LB are the same (I'm assuming a base D with 2 linebackers.  The difference is Buffalo now knows how to use  AJ Klein if he subs for Milano.  Andre Smith appears to be a quality multi position backup, and Joe Giles-Harris is quality competition.  Dodson is a good athlete who is continuing to develop his tools.  Klein is 30, but the rest of the linebackers who will make this squad are all young or in their prime.  It's not going to be nearly the difference we could see on the defensive line, but I expect to see steadier play at linebacker with less drop off when Milano or Edmunds are out.

[In Summary]

Are expectations different than predictions?  My expectation (for the Bills) is that the run defense improves to the point where they are not inviting teams to run when games are close or the opponent is chewing clock.  My prediction is that this will happen.