Do the Bills have "their guy" picked out?

[TC in St. Louis]

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

[Big Turk]

At 30 they don't really have a "guy" because there are too many scenarios in play ahead of them. Best they can do is maybe see a player they really wanted slip into the 20s and then move up to get him.

[TC in St. Louis]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

At 30 they don't really have a "guy" because there are too many scenarios in play ahead of them. Best they can do is maybe see a player they really wanted slip into the 20s and then move up to get him.

I agree that it's a strange draft, but I do think they've targeted a player.  They've spent the offseason on this.  

[thenorthremembers]

I think the Allen situation was different, they knew they had to get a QB so it grossly limited the number of people they could zero in on.  Now they have their franchise QB they just have to get players to make the team better, not necessarily pick for need.

 

That said, at #30 they probably have to limit their expectations of who will be there.  I love Travis Etienne, but I dont think he gets there.   They most likely have to look at guys like Eric Stokes, Jayson Oweh, Terrance Marshall Jr., Kadarius Toney, Christian Baramore, and Gregory Rousseau.

 

The 49ers trade, especially if they really went up for Mac Jones has made everything a lot more fluid.

[CaptnCoke11]

I’d imagine they have about 10 guys on their radar at that point.  If one isn’t there I’m sure he’d love to trade back and get another 3rd 

[Don Otreply]

I suspect it is more a they have “guys” they are targeting at different points during the draft subject to what has transpired as their pick approaches.  Not discounting moving up or down, but imo this is a more likely their general thought process.

[BuffaloRebound]

I hope not.  You’d probably have to be targeting a 2nd round guy on your board to be reasonably sure you’d get him at 30.  
I bet Beane has 3-4 guys he’d trade up for if they fall to a certain draft position, a couple he’d be happy with at 30 and then a trade down scenario if the he doesn’t trade up or like who’s available at 30.  

[H2o]

Being at 30 is not like being in the top 10. There are always surprises, in many instances trades, and an occasional wtf type of pick. I'm sure they have a board and they'll stick to that board. Names will be crossed off of the list when they are selected. However that board stands when they get on the clock will be how they make their selection. 

[LabattBlue]

20 minutes ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

Keep in mind that unless the Bills moved to #1 overall, there was no guarantee the Bills were going to get "their guy in Allen".  There were six selections that could have really messed with the plan.

[Purplebulldog]

20 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I think the Allen situation was different, they knew they had to get a QB so it grossly limited the number of people they could zero in on.  Now they have their franchise QB they just have to get players to make the team better, not necessarily pick for need.

 

That said, at #30 they probably have to limit their expectations of who will be there.  I love Travis Etienne, but I dont think he gets there.   They most likely have to look at guys like Eric Stokes, Jayson Oweh, Terrance Marshall Jr., Kadarius Toney, Christian Baramore, and Gregory Rousseau.

 

The 49ers trade, especially if they really went up for Mac Jones has made everything a lot more fluid.

I live in bama run for the hills on Baramore. "Dareusitis"

[Frat-Train]

Vontae Mack...

 

No matter what.

[TheBeaneBandit]

20 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I’d imagine they have about 10 guys on their radar at that point.  If one isn’t there I’m sure he’d love to trade back and get another 3rd 

I was thinking a handful to maybe 10. Right on right on.

[mjt328]

18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

At 30 they don't really have a "guy" because there are too many scenarios in play ahead of them. Best they can do is maybe see a player they really wanted slip into the 20s and then move up to get him.

 

What he said.

 

Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind.  I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players.

 

My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers.  As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back.

 

Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night.  What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead?  Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want.  Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

 

[glazeduck]

7 minutes ago, BTB said:

Keep in mind that unless the Bills moved to #1 overall, there was no guarantee the Bills were going to get "their guy in Allen".  There were six selections that could have really messed with the plan.

Exactly. And even if they had the #1, Darnold may have been the true "their guy", only the people in the war room and a scant few other will ever know for sure, and the way that's played out, absolutely no one will be saying otherwise anytime soon. 

 

I'm sure they have a guy that they'd LOVE to have, but sitting at 30, there's dream wants and there's realistic wants. So no, there's not *one* guy that they've targeted that they'll go all in for, even if they tell you that's what happened afterwards. They'll have their board, they'll have needs and wants and value pretty clearly defined, and they'll have to take it from there. There's simply far too many variables to hone in on one guy at 30...

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

 

What he said.

 

Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind.  I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players.

 

My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers.  As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back.

Yeah, I think the closest we could be to this sort of thing is my fever dream of Pitts falling to the early teens. Beane & co. will have also scouted out and had speculative conversations with just about every team above us (within realistic reach) about what it would take to move up -- as every team will have. So yeah, in the case that a Pitts, Paye, maybe a waddle start to slide, it's not unrealistic to think we could go get them, but under no circumstances are they honed in at one guy. The Jets at 2 aren't even honed in on one guy! 🤣

 

 

2 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night.  What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead?  Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want.  Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

 

Not to be pedantic about it, but Allen wasn't even Beane's only DRAFT pick that night...

[Greg S]

Matt Parrino on Twitter: "Alabama LB Dylan Moses says that he's talked to the #Bills quite a bit, three or four times." / Twitter

[Baba Booey]

Kyle Pitts is that guy!!! Just no chance of getting him. He would take the offense to the next level. 

[Jauronimo]

Beane definitely has his man identified at #30 and will get him.  He also has a perfect bracket right now...

[H2o]

6 minutes ago, Baba Booey said:

Kyle Pitts is that guy!!! Just no chance of getting him. He would take the offense to the next level. 

Kyle Pitts is "that guy" for many of these teams who will never have a shot at selecting him. 

[Tommy Callahan]

High ceiling physical freaks tends to be what Brandon looks for.

 

 

[JimmyNoodles]

Hopefully the Bills will be drafting late for years to come.  At this end of the draft, Mr. Beane just has to stay patient.  You're rewarded with guys that fall right into your lap.  Happens every year.  It will happen this year too.   

[Victory Formation]

I don’t think we really have the ammunition to move around too much.. I think that Beane did a great job at patching up holes on the roster and I think at this point he goes BPA.

[John from Riverside]

Not at 30......I bet they have a "group of guys"

[dje85]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

 I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that. 

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

 

I don't believe we got every guy we wanted in each round. It's just not realistic. In the early first in the Allen draft I believe we did but the later rounds I'm sure we had a few guys in mind and after one or two of the potential guys get taken that's when we made our move to make sure we got one of our handful of guys that we felt was value at that point.  

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

I think that’s exactly wrong.  This FO is too smart and has done too well overall to make the horrific mistake of falling in love with any single player.

 

They were aggressive acquiring players to fill cornerstone positions, but it was about that and not having to have a specific player.  We don’t even know if Allen was their #1 QB that year.  And we will likely never know.  I’ll tell you this though, in that draft it would have been very unlikely to have unanimous agreement in ranking QB prospects.  They’ve done very well and probably got a little lucky too.  Don’t overthink it. 

[Rochesterfan]

I don’t for a second believe the Bills target “1” guy.  They put together a board and have groups of guys that they identified.  It is not 1 guy from prior to the draft until their pick.  That is a Raider pick drafting the fastest WR even if he has a lower round grade.

 

The Bills may move up if they identify that the last guy in a particular band/group is available and within striking distance - if they believe the drop off is significant, but they did not target that player from the beginning.

 

For Example: @GunnerBill believes there are about 17-18 true 1st round players (I believe - I am not presuming to speak for him).  If the Bills identify it similarly and we get to pick 25 or so and 1 (or 2) of those guys are left - then the Bills may try to make a trade to get that specific guy because the drop off to the next group is significant, but they were not targeting that player - that was how the board fell.

 

That is my feeling on how the draft works.  Almost no one would ever target 1 guy and be all in on that unless you are sitting at #1.

[maddenboy]

8 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

The Bills may move up if they identify that the last guy in a particular band/group is available and within striking distance - if they believe the drop off is significant, but they did not target that player from the beginning.

 

For Example: @GunnerBill believes there are about 17-18 true 1st round players (I believe - I am not presuming to speak for him).  If the Bills identify it similarly and we get to pick 25 or so and 1 (or 2) of those guys are left - then the Bills may try to make a trade to get that specific guy because the drop off to the next group is significant, but they were not targeting that player - that was how the board fell.

i think this is how it works for McBeane.

 

They dont think "we are gonna get mr. X no matter what."  They think "these are the 3-5 guys we need.  We damn sure better get one of them, no matter what."

 

I think the only way they move down from 30 is if more than one is there.

 

I do NOT think they are gonna sit at 30 and hope a quality player falls to them.  They arent interested in "a quality player."  They are interested in players they think will be true NFL players, and who can contribute THIS year. 

 

The discussion in the TBD draft thread v1 about JOK sounds about right.  IF they think he will be on the field enuf to justify the pick, that's somebody I could see them moving up for.  A potentially special player.

[IgotBILLStopay]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

Dawkins, Knox, Zay Jones and Cody Ford  - yes I think they had their guy picked out. But not Josh Allen - since the highest slot the Bills could hope for was 5th and Cleveland could have picked Allen. Dorsey kept the Mayfield pick  very close to his chest. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I agree that it's a strange draft, but I do think they've targeted a player.  They've spent the offseason on this.  

I hope not. I hope they have picked 10 or 15 guys, because there is no telling who they will be able to pick.

 

They just need to follow their draft board. Pick the guy with the best value who has the potential to help the team.

[IgotBILLStopay]

I dont think they have their guy picked out at all - I am sure they have mid-first round rated guys and a couple should be left at 30 - and they will likely pick  the best out of those.

 

That being said, if they have a guy rated say a top 15 pick and he slides to, say, 23 or more, Beane might go up and get him. As of now it appears at least one of Phillips, Rousseau and Paye will be available at 24.

Edited March 29, 2021 by IgotBILLStopay

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Frat-Train said:

Vontae Mack...

 

No matter what.

I approve this message.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Matt Parrino on Twitter: "Alabama LB Dylan Moses says that he's talked to the #Bills quite a bit, three or four times." / Twitter

👀👀

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Dawkins, Knox, Zay Jones and Cody Ford  - yes I think they had their guy picked out. But not Josh Allen - since the highest slot the Bills could hope for was 5th and Cleveland could have picked Allen. Dorsey kept the Mayfield pick  very close to his chest. 

 

He did although Beane said in a recent interview that about a week before the draft the Bills were 99% sure Cleveland were taking Baker. It only really leaked as a media rumour in the final 3 or 4 hours but it feels as though teams were on it a bit sooner.

 

Edit: on the top bit I think they were just surprised Cody was there. Their assumption was he'd be gone in round 1 when he was still there early day 2 he was sticking out on their board and at a position of need. Zay was a definite individual target, I think Knox was more there was a decent little tight end group that year and there was a rush on them and he was kind of the last one there. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

I don’t for a second believe the Bills target “1” guy.  They put together a board and have groups of guys that they identified.  It is not 1 guy from prior to the draft until their pick.  That is a Raider pick drafting the fastest WR even if he has a lower round grade.

 

The Bills may move up if they identify that the last guy in a particular band/group is available and within striking distance - if they believe the drop off is significant, but they did not target that player from the beginning.

 

For Example: @GunnerBill believes there are about 17-18 true 1st round players (I believe - I am not presuming to speak for him).  If the Bills identify it similarly and we get to pick 25 or so and 1 (or 2) of those guys are left - then the Bills may try to make a trade to get that specific guy because the drop off to the next group is significant, but they were not targeting that player - that was how the board fell.

 

That is my feeling on how the draft works.  Almost no one would ever target 1 guy and be all in on that unless you are sitting at #1.

That is why picks are BPA at positions of need the vast majority of the time, and why a strict very BPA is a rare bird, it’s need driven, and every teams idea of BPA differs by that teams current personnel situation.

[maddenboy]

Something just occurred to me, reading the thread about using more 12 personnel.

 

The linked article talks about Pats*** adding 2 TEs.  Then it assumed (for argument) that Miami is going to take TE Pitts at #6.

 

Since winning the division is the surest path to the playoffs, I wonder if McBeane will draft based on who NE drafts (QB Zack Jones maybe), and who Fish draft (Pitts maybe), before deciding what position or what player is needed.  (JESTS are irrelevant)

 

If Fish take Pitts, we really need to be able to cover TEs.  Maybe more than pass rush, since throws to TEs are usually quick reads.  OTOH, if Fish take OL or WR, then CB2 might be more of a priority, and especially one who is great at Zone (which if probably the only type of CB we are interested in, anyway).

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

I have no idea who their guy might be, but there will be a guy at 30 who the Bills believe should have gone at 15, and they'll be thrilled to get him. 

[RyanC883]

I think, being at 30, we have two lists: (1) first list, players we would trade-up for, this is the "our guy" sort of list: say if a LB, or CB we have a very high grade on, or Pitts falls to a certain range.  (2) players we want at 30, and if none are there, we try to trade down to acquire more picks.  

Edited March 29, 2021 by RyanC883

[prissythecat]

4 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

[WhoTom]

1 minute ago, prissythecat said:

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

 

I was just about to post that too. Beane never said Josh was "Their Guy," even when explicitly asked.

[LabattBlue]

6 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

I'm said this all along.  Not only this, but people act like Beane is a mind reader and knew Josh would still be there at 7.  I'd love to know what the plan was if Josh went in the top 5 along with Baker and Darnold.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

4 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

Do the Bills have "their guy" picked out?