Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?

[Jay_Fixit]

11 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

True, as long as the DL, OL and TE are BPA.

 

Who the Bills really need, and it’s quite simple, is BPA.

[Royale with Cheese]

Usually I'm guy that if you're picking in the top 15.  If there's someone you really want, go get him. 

 

But picking at 30...how much of a difference is that guy from a mid 2nd rounder as far as grades?  I would be open to us trading back and getting more trades unless there's someone you absolutely love sitting at 30.

[Jay_Fixit]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Usually I'm guy that if you're picking in the top 15.  If there's someone you really want, go get him. 

 

But picking at 30...how much of a difference is that guy from a mid 2nd rounder as far as grades?  I would be open to us trading back and getting more trades unless there's someone you absolutely love sitting at 30.

Ya, you’ve always been like this in the GM meetings you’ve attended.

[gonzo1105]

Once you pay your QB, which the Bills are likely to do, you need more draft picks for cheap young depth. Can't give up picks when your paying a QB 30-40 million.

[Royale with Cheese]

11 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Ya, you’ve always been like this in the GM meetings you’ve attended.

 

You don't know who I am.  I might be the most powerful man you've ever spoken to.

[billsfan89]

I would love to see a small trade back. trading back from 30 to 37ish and picking up a 3rd for a 5th swap along with a 6th seems like a good accrual of draft picks. Getting that extra pick allows you more flexibility in moving around in the mid rounds or just allows you to draft an extra player while swapping a 3rd for a 5th gets you better position to get more impact players for a team that will likely have depth and holes to fill come the draft. Moving up big time to get a prime pass rusher isn't a terrible idea but that is putting all or most of your draft capital and possibly future capital on the line for one player (that isn't a QB) which is a risky move. 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, Tipster19 said:

Another great aspect in a COVID affected draft. Use a mulligan type philosophy this year to stack next year’s draft. That would only come from a confident and secured GM which we have in Beane. A lot to like and think about here.

Playing around, here's one version (I only do 4 rounds):

Traded back with Cin to get 38 and their 2022 R2

38. K Toney WR Florida

61. Aaron Robinson CB UCF

93. Q. Meinerz C WI-Whitewater

 

Two R2 picks in 2022 could move them up to the 10-12 range. I've done some where I've gotten 2 R2 picks or an R2 and R3, and still drafted some decent players that would fill some needs.  Now, in the real world ...

 

[TheFunPolice]

The only thing better than 1 gigantic angry man in the early/mid rounds of the draft?

 

TWO gigantic angry men in round 2-4 of the draft!

 

Trade back, pick up an extra 2nd from a team that has 2 and get the largest, most talented, most angry men you can find in round 2. then BPA for the rest of the draft. 

 

With an extra 350+ pound DT in the late rounds as a flyer.  

 

 

[Redneck]

Hard to see a pass rusher the level we need at 30 or even below.  If we stay at 30, i really like Najee Harris from 'Bama.

[Freddie's Dead]

My ROT is to ALWAYS trade back (unless you need to jump to 7 to pick Josh Allen).  You trade up to get a generational talent, like Sammy Wat...er, John McCar...er, JP Los...er, TJumptomakeacatch Gra...er, Cody For....er, Khalil Mack!! (yeah, that was the ticket, freakin' Whaley)

[27yanks]

Trade out of the 1st, get a second/third. Would love to see the FO even trade back further by giving up next year 1 for another 2/3 this year and stockpile draft picks for the furture holes. Hit on cap will be lowered (rookie contracts), and we could possibly load the OL/DL for the next 2-3 yrs. Yeah I know pipe dream, but there are takers out there.

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by 27yanks
grammar

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Usually I'm guy that if you're picking in the top 15.  If there's someone you really want, go get him. 

 

But picking at 30...how much of a difference is that guy from a mid 2nd rounder as far as grades?  I would be open to us trading back and getting more trades unless there's someone you absolutely love sitting at 30.

Exactly right.  If there is no one worth drafting when your pick is up then find someone who wants to move up the board to select no one good and move back in the draft.  But if there is someone you love on the board then you should always move up to get them and its generally impolite for teams to deny your trade request.  The only thing we cannot afford to do is stand pat and select a guy with the 30th pick unless that guy is someone we really like. 

 

In conclusion always trade back unless you should trade up and never stay in your slot unless its a good idea.

[colin]

well, we need one quality starter (judged by the end of the season/playoffs) at OG or DE/DT or LB in this draft.  we also need quality production at 2 or 3 of those positions (assuming we get a starter), as well as CB, RB, and TE.  im thinking we can get a solid and nasty guard early, TE and RB between rounds 2 and 5, and fill in the rest as we go.  so based on that, i say you trade up if you think you have a shot at another rueben brown or something at OG, or a human missile at OLB (or MLB and we move edmunds, whatever).  a real cover corner or pass rusher IMO will just not likely be there at the end of the first, unless he's a bit of a project, so OG i think is the target.

 

now, if there are like 3 who will be there for our 2nd pick that we like, then totally trade down, maybe get a 2nd and a 3rd, and use that plus our 2nd to go OG, OLB, and one of TE,RB,CB, or DL.

 

 

[Victory Formation]

Trading back is a good idea but not too far. I would trade back to #33–#41 but I would not go back further than that. I like the talent available in the first 40-50 picks but beyond that I question whether or not we’d get an impact player there. 

[stinky finger]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If the right player slides to #24 or #25 I could see a small move up, if the board falls another way at #30 and there is interest in the pick I could see a small move back. Both are on the table IMO.

 

This is where I’m at. 

 

Not a monumental jump up, but if there’s “that guy” you really want 4-5 picks away - do it. 

[Bob in STL]

We need help at DL/Edge, LB, 2nd CB, OG, TE,  and probably RT and RB.  
 

I think they address DE and several positions in free agency.  This will dictate how they draft.  If we can retain a few of our guys, and also sign some free agent help, then it will depend on what positions still neeed to be addressed at draft time as to how he handle it.  
 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

46 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Exactly right.  If there is no one worth drafting when your pick is up then find someone who wants to move up the board to select no one good and move back in the draft.  But if there is someone you love on the board then you should always move up to get them and its generally impolite for teams to deny your trade request.  The only thing we cannot afford to do is stand pat and select a guy with the 30th pick unless that guy is someone we really like. 

 

In conclusion always trade back unless you should trade up and never stay in your slot unless its a good idea.

 

Finally someone has cracked the code.

[In Summary]

Hold or trade back.  Only trade up for a QB IMO.  Beane reaches and ends up with Cody Ford and Edmunds.  Also, you have to decide whether you're going to cut down the number of rookies you bring in BEFORE they ever step on your practice field with your coaches and get evaluated in your system OR you bring in a full compliment of rookies to evaluate (again) on your field with your coaches in your system with your players etc. and do a proper Bills evaluation for a month or so before making cuts.  To many holes to get cute trading up.  Get these guys into camp and look at them then.

[teef]

i don't like this pressure.  the bills should just give the picks away.

[mjt328]

No way to tell until the draft is happening, and we get a better idea of where prospects are going.

 

Good GMs utilize all of the tools in their belt, and don't push themselves into a corner with a "single philosophy" on roster construction.  Sometimes trading up is the best move.  Sometimes trading down is better.  Sometimes you stay put.

 

I recall when Marv Levy was hired as GM, and he spoke about good teams only building through the draft.  He was very reluctant to participate in Free Agency or retain guys with expiring contracts (but ironically still managed to overpay tremendously for average players).  Buddy Nix pretty much refused to consider a trade up in the draft, and we always seemed to be 1-2 picks away from getting that true difference maker.

 

 

 

[In Summary]

19 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

We need help at DL/Edge, LB, 2nd CB, OG, TE,  and probably RT and RB.  
 

I think they address DE and several positions in free agency.  This will dictate how they draft.  If we can retain a few of our guys, and also sign some free agent help, then it will depend on what positions still neeed to be addressed at draft time as to how he handle it.  
 

 

Every year I remind myself we'll never get all the pieces we need.  I think with the 1-tech DT figured out, the Bills get a more effective Oliver and Edmunds so with one position fixed, you upgrade two others.  Maybe Star is still the guy, but a big DT is a need to me.  In much the same way, if the Bills can't get a new RB and TE, a solid OL player could boost the running game with the players we have.  Odd for a such a talented team to have so many perceived needs.   

[BillsShredder83]

7 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

I don't want to as that kill our salary cap. 

Mack wouldve put us over the top this year IMO.  Hed make that defense look alot better!  I doubt theyd take just a 1 for him though

[Albany,n.y.]

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Albany,n.y.

[TheBeaneBandit]

45 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Every year I remind myself we'll never get all the pieces we need.  I think with the 1-tech DT figured out, the Bills get a more effective Oliver and Edmunds so with one position fixed, you upgrade two others.  Maybe Star is still the guy, but a big DT is a need to me.  In much the same way, if the Bills can't get a new RB and TE, a solid OL player could boost the running game with the players we have.  Odd for a such a talented team to have so many perceived needs.   

Totally agree. If we are gonna spend big on one guy I would target Tomlinson from the Giants. 

[TPS]

53 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

Sammy Watkins says hello...

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, TPS said:

Sammy Watkins says hello...

 

Zay Jones says Goodbye..

Cody Ford is being very quiet and tying to hide in the corner...

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

Hey, I see what you did there...well played, good sir, well played...😉

[HappyDays]

If I had to guess the player this regime will fall in love with is Owusu-Koramoah. He fills Milano's spot and also does the role they were hoping to fill with Kyle Dugger last year. I could see us trading up for him if he falls to 20.

[thurst44]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

Edmunds was likely considered the BPA at the time. Many mocks had him Top 10. I picked him occasionally in Fanspeak mocks with our 12 when he dropped, and even traded up a couple times--knowing all the while we were drafting a QB. Oliver was expected by some to go top 3. Epenesa was easily BPA as he was more often than not well within the 1st round in mocks. Ford was expected to go in the first by many. Just b/c the pick fills a need does not mean he's not BPA. You could argue just about anything fills a need. OK, if we drafted QB or WR, it would be hard to argue that it was a need pick. but we have two great safeties and solid back-ups, but people could still in retrospect call safety a need pick if we moved on from Hyde after his contract ended.

[Tipster19]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If I had to guess the player this regime will fall in love with is Owusu-Koramoah. He fills Milano's spot and also does the role they were hoping to fill with Kyle Dugger last year. I could see us trading up for him if he falls to 20.

Well this may be accurate I think that good LBs have been found in later rds, like from the 3rd-5th rds. Now a LB like Devin White is a absolute monster and I would love for the Bills to find a LB like him regardless of what rd. 

[MrSarcasm]

Yes.

5 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

JP Losman...

[Estro]

Trade back. Unless you are targeting a QB it is a bad play to move up.  It's like taking insurance in blackjack.....sometimes it works out and you win l, but its never the right move. 

 

I really hope they do trade back from #30 to the mid/late 40s and pick up an additional mid 3rd round pick.......or even a 4th and a future 2nd, like the Colts have often done under Chris Ballard.

 

I think with all the disruptions to scouting and the entire college evaluation process this year there are going to be more finds in the mid rounds.

[Reader]

To echo a few others, if there has been less opportunity to really know prospects due to COVID it seems like the more chances we have, AKA trading down, the better since everyone will be at a disadvantage (compared to other years) of nailing their first couple of picks.

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If the right player slides to #24 or #25 I could see a small move up, if the board falls another way at #30 and there is interest in the pick I could see a small move back. Both are on the table IMO.

 

 

Yup.

 

If it were me we'd trade back every time and amass picks. But it's not me.

 

Small ones are what he does outside of the year they accumulated draft capital in advance for the move up for a QB.

 

And a large move up would make even less sense this year when we can't bring in many FAs due to cap problems. We've got to make each of those early picks count this year.

[Thurman#1]

28 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It's a good strategy if you are sound at drafting in what is a gigantic crap shoot after round 1(even round 1 is a crap shoot)..... and Beane hasn't exactly demonstrated his greatness on draft day.

 

After round 1, the majority of these draft picks turn into JAG starters, back ups or not even in the league. 

 

 

 

You can kid yourself ... yet again ... if you like, but nearly all of that is nonsense. It's not a crap shoot after round one. If it were, teams would trade 2nd rounders for 7th rounders straight up, they'd all be the same. Just pure dumbosity. 2nd rounders are more valuable than 3rds simply because you're more likely to get a better player, and 3rds are more valuable than 4ths ... this isn't rocket science, but the whole idea of a crapshoot is stupid and always has been.

 

The rest is nonsense too, for many reasons. First, teams need starters even if they're not stars, and they need backups,, and they will need them a lot more this year with limited cap to bring in FAs. Second, it's not that unusual to find truly excellent players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

Third, Beane has proven an absolutely excellent GM. Brilliant. This team has been built to a top four team, and damn fast.

 

And fourth, Beane has been very good on draft day. Fair enough that he hasn't been excellent at least so far, but he also hasn't had time to run up a final tally on most of his draft picks. The one class that's getting close to their potential enough to get a good view of them: Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson in the 4th and Wyatt Teller in the 5th, looks like he got solid value everywhere and some terrific bargains as well, starting right from Allen at #7.

 

Giving up early picks in a big tradeup for any reason other than a try at a franchise QB has been proven again and again to be an awful strategy. The Massey and Thaler study of overconfidence vs. market efficiency and the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective study are only two of a multitude that all say the same thing. Don't give away big assets in a tradeup unless a need for a franchise QB forces it. It's a move for saps and soon to be ex-GMs.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Tipster19]

Would trading out for a proven veteran be the best strategy due to the uncertainty of  the lack of scouting, no combine etc etc due to COVID? Not saying the Bills should, just asking if they should.

[Southern_Bills]

Unless Pitts or someone like that slides your not trading up. I do however think they could stay at 30 and trade it away at the last second according on what's there.

 

Good chance you could get an additional pick and still get Najee Harris, Wyatt Teller or someone of that assortment. 

[GreggTX]

Normally I'd prefer that Beane trade the high picks for a proven game changer since Allen is the only solid value he's gotten in the top 2 rounds, but this year our cap situation demands that we get solid day 1 starters in those rounds. Depending on other moves in FA or trade, I would expect us to stay put and take a CB or Edge Rusher or OT. I'll be disappointed if we go for a LB or RB or TE in the 1st round unless there is a generational talent available there, but we'd have to trade way up for that.

[Dkollidas]

My question is who is trading up this year? I wonder if Covid doesn’t severely limit the movement in the draft, and most teams just kind of stand pat. Unless a QB like Trey Lance or Mac Jones are there and someone wants to really go after it, I don’t know how much movement there will be at all.

 

of course I could be totally wrong and we could see tons of trades. 

[Norcalbillsfan]

Really depends on Milano and possibly watt. If the bills get neither and don't get a plug and play LB in FA I think you have to go after the ND LB if he slides, or if collins from Tulsa get to us. But I would not be surprised at all if our rd 1 and 2 picks are LBs. Because after edmunds play this year can/ will beane pay edmunds a massive contract? cuz someone else will. Might be in this same situation again, forced to go LB instead building somewhere else.