I take with a grain of salt but this interested me: Bills Trenches rankings from ESPN

[Hapless Bills Fan]

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

When the metrics don’t seem to match the results, it makes it hard to believe it actually means anything 

[Solomon Grundy]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

When the metrics don’t seem to match the results, it makes it hard to believe it actually means anything 

What does any of this convoluted pff %/win rate even mean? I vote for grain of salt.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What does any of this convoluted pff %/win rate even mean? I vote for grain of salt.

🧂 🧂 🧂 🧂 

[Success]

I feel like this is one where "eye test" matters a bit. Also, it's hard to put context around some of the stats.  I don't know how much stock we can put on the running stats when we hardly run - or the passing stats when all we really do is pass.

 

Interesting #'s, though.  I'd be surprised (as I'm sure many would) if the focus of the offseason isn't the trenches.  I doubt we see any big moves or high draft picks on skill positions, or the secondary on D.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

 

Stats.  one needs more than a graphic to see what they actually mean.  just saying

 

[TPS]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

I remember reading about the pass blocking/D Rush somewhere, and I believe it was based on a specific time (e.g. 2 seconds?) engaged with the primary blocker.

 

[DCOrange]

21 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What does any of this convoluted pff %/win rate even mean? I vote for grain of salt.

These numbers are actually from ESPN. They break it down here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings. This link also gives you the top 10 list for individual players at each of these metrics as well as the team rankings.

Quote

 

Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.

In run stop win rate, a defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he's in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backwards; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within three yards of the line of scrimmage. If a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss, and vice versa.

 

 

More details at the following two links if you want more than just a summary of what the metrics mean:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29813062/introducing-new-nfl-run-blocking-run-stopping-stats-how-run-block-win-rate-run-stop-win-rate-work

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by DCOrange

[TheFunPolice]

31 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES 

 

Yes!

 

Slaton

[thenorthremembers]

33 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES 

The Bills dont have a problem with the BIG portion, at least on the O-Line.  Its the nasty part they lack.

[colin]

given how ineffective we were at rushing the passer when it mattered and how we didn't have a ton of sacks, i think we can consider this pass rush win rate as goofy.

 

also, if 4 of 5 linemen hold their blocks all day, but one guy get's beat immediately off the snap, inside, it's a blow up play and possibly a fumble, but the stats would say 80% win rate.

 

what these stats tell me more than anything is that on OL, our tackles are solid, and our interior line is weak, and we knew that watching the team.

 

on the DL side, our guys have enough skill and moves to cause some trouble for OLs, but clearly not enough to impact the game without blitzing.  i think our depth of JAGs pad our stats, our like 6th through 8th lineman all have some pass rush ability, but them beating a block after 2 seconds of hand fighting and not making a play isn't making a difference.  which is why you pay such a massive premium for a real pass rusher vs a guy who is pretty good.

[Nextmanup]

Data like this is highly subjective.

 

They suggest we have a team pass blocking win rate of 64%.

 

If 9 other people computed that for the season, you would get 9 other percentages.

 

My "win" may not be your "win".  And a lot of these are shade of gray stuff in the middle.

 

 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

“Stats are for losers”

- Josh Allen

[GunnerBill]

2nd in the NFL in pass rush win does feel the one of those stats that doesn't meet the eye test. Though I will say that my eyes tell me both Ed and Jerry win a lot of rushes that don't result in production. Conversely Mario Addison wins rarely but when he does he generally makes a play. I think finishing his rushes consistently is a real area for development for Oliver. I feel like there were sacks there for him this year that he failed to seal the deal on.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

When the metrics don’t seem to match the results, it makes it hard to believe it actually means anything 

 

I don't understand why folks are saying this. The stats seem to reflect the results-- a team that pass blocked well, run blocked poorly, and had a guy on defense (Hughes) that got consistent pressure.  Re Hughes, you would hope the high pressure rate translates into more sacks--I guess that is the only surprising aspect of the stats, to me. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

These numbers are actually from ESPN. They break it down here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings. This link also gives you the top 10 list for individual players at each of these metrics as well as the team rankings.

 

More details at the following two links if you want more than just a summary of what the metrics mean:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24892208/creating-better-nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-stats-analytics-explainer-faq-how-work

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29813062/introducing-new-nfl-run-blocking-run-stopping-stats-how-run-block-win-rate-run-stop-win-rate-work

 

This is fantastic, @DCOrange.  Thanks for giving a source for context

[DCOrange]

15 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

I don't understand why folks are saying this. The stats seem to reflect the results-- a team that pass blocked well, run blocked poorly, and had a guy on defense (Hughes) that got consistent pressure.  Re Hughes, you would hope the high pressure rate translates into more sacks--I guess that is the only surprising aspect of the stats, to me. 

 

Re: Hughes and the pass rush, it does make me wonder if it might be helpful to know the percentage of plays where 2 or more defenders beat their blocker. Based on Hughes' win rate and our lack of actual pressures this year, it makes me wonder if it basically just boiled down to Hughes beating his man, the QB being able to climb the pocket or side-step Hughes and then the QB is totally fine because everyone else is successfully blocked.

 

Also, if I remember right, teams tended to get the ball out quickly against us before our line really even had a chance to get home.

[BuffaloRebound]

If Hughes could grab and hold on, he’d be a double digit sack guy every year.  
 

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Stats like these are the reason I want the Bills to acquire some BIG NASTIES 

Build a bully?

[Not at the table Karlos]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

2nd in the NFL in pass rush win does feel the one of those stats that doesn't meet the eye test. Though I will say that my eyes tell me both Ed and Jerry win a lot of rushes that don't result in production. Conversely Mario Addison wins rarely but when he does he generally makes a play. I think finishing his rushes consistently is a real area for development for Oliver. I feel like there were sacks there for him this year that he failed to seal the deal on.

I was coming here to say this. We have a lot of trouble finishing. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Is this where it’s appropriate to say, “just win baby!” 😜

[cba fan]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

I believe win rate is looking at each lineman win rate vs first guy blocking him. So if Hughes beats his guy and then is blocked by a running back he won that plays win rate.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Didn’t someone once say don’t confuse effort with results. If you beat your man but don’t get a sack, you didn’t win

[reddogblitz]

How many points do we get for that?

[DCOrange]

THIS one is from PFF

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

That's great!

[machine gun kelly]

Seems to state what most know.  We were fine in pass pro, and terrible in the rush by our line.  Defense couldn’t get home.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

I don't understand why folks are saying this. The stats seem to reflect the results-- a team that pass blocked well, run blocked poorly, and had a guy on defense (Hughes) that got consistent pressure.  Re Hughes, you would hope the high pressure rate translates into more sacks--I guess that is the only surprising aspect of the stats, to me. 

 

 

Yup.

 

It's deliberately related to whether (pass) blocks are won within 2.5 seconds or not. You can win or lose and it might not mean a sack, or everyone could win but if they're rushing six a guy could be unblocked and get a sack.

 

It's a stat with a specific context. It's interesting, and it lines up reasonably well with what I saw.

 

11 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Didn’t someone once say don’t confuse effort with results. If you beat your man but don’t get a sack, you didn’t win

 

 

Yes you did. You didn't get a sack, but you may well have done a terrific job. If you beat your guy but the QB gets it out in under two seconds to a guy running a slant that's not the pass rusher's fault.

 

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

THIS one is from PFF

 

 

 

 

This one is a bit misleading as it's a raw number, not a measure of efficiency.

 

If you get 250 pressures, that can have a totally different meaning if you faced 300 passes or 700 passes.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Re: Hughes and the pass rush, it does make me wonder if it might be helpful to know the percentage of plays where 2 or more defenders beat their blocker. Based on Hughes' win rate and our lack of actual pressures this year, it makes me wonder if it basically just boiled down to Hughes beating his man, the QB being able to climb the pocket or side-step Hughes and then the QB is totally fine because everyone else is successfully blocked.

 

Also, if I remember right, teams tended to get the ball out quickly against us before our line really even had a chance to get home.

 

 

Yes, this looks like it precisely.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

33 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.

 

It's deliberately related to whether (pass) blocks are won within 2.5 seconds or not. You can win or lose and it might not mean a sack, or everyone could win but if they're rushing six a guy could be unblocked and get a sack.

 

It's a stat with a specific context. It's interesting, and it lines up reasonably well with what I saw.

 

 

 

Yes you did. You didn't get a sack, but you may well have done a terrific job. If you beat your guy but the QB gets it out in under two seconds to a guy running a slant that's not the pass rusher's fault.

 

 

 

This one is a bit misleading as it's a raw number, not a measure of efficiency.

 

If you get 250 pressures, that can have a totally different meaning if you faced 300 passes or 700 passes.

It's not misleading at all. Bills just had to blitz more than normal this year. They improved a lot as the year went on. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, this looks like it precisely.

 

And Ed too. Ed and Jerry are responsible for a high % of those wins. Neither of them are great finishers. Bit late to change that for Jerry now but the Bills have to work on it with Ed. I feel like sometimes he is so fast out of his stance and underneath the guard that he struggles to slow himself down and kind of overshoots the passer (runs right by him). That is something they can work on and correct. 

[JGMcD2]

19 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Didn’t someone once say don’t confuse effort with results. If you beat your man but don’t get a sack, you didn’t win

Then you’re very rarely going to “win.” 
 

Being focused on the outcome as the measure of success can be tricky. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by JGMcD2

[appoo]

The bills put more pressure on Lamar Jackson than the Bucs put on Patrick Mahomes, for reference. In terms of pressures.

 

The Bills definitely got a lot of pressure on opposing QBs in a lot of games this season, and Jerry Hughes had a very good year in beating his lineman within 2 seconds (pass rush win).

 

The problem is that while the Bills had effective pass rush, it was only effective when they blitzed. When they chose not to

blitz, they’d get torched. Part of that was because they were forced to play Ed Oliver at 1T so often. Part of that was because they didn’t have a consistent pas rusher opposite Hughes.

 

The NFL, when you have good teams against each other, is a matchup and game plan league. Hence the Chiefs getting blown out by the Bucs, the Bills getting blown out by the Chiefs, but if the Bills and Bucs played, likely would have been a pretty good game 

[MJS]

I'm sick of pressures. I want guys who can finish.

[WideNine]

On 2/11/2021 at 8:28 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

 

As far as the pass-pro win rate, I think cover 1 summed it up well, that as a unit our group generally excels.

 

But when facing teams with an impact NT AND 3-tech they get exposed badly because our center can't help Mongo (who already is weak in pass-pro) double the 3-tech.

 

Would be tough to double Jones with him in the B gap any ways. Mongo's initial kick step has to take into account Jones' speed and power outside which sets him up for the inside moves sans help.

 

It all goes to hell pretty fast against those teams.

 

Against the Rams with Donald we did a good job of doubling him and moving the pocket, but they are a 3-4 team and I think we scheme protections for those a bit better, though Donald still made some plays.

 

Our run block win rate is not surprising watching the breakdowns that are out there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by WideNine

[Mango]

On 2/11/2021 at 11:28 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

graphic put out by BuffaloFanatics (I believe, from PFF):

 

Interesting to me that even though we had so few sacks and QB hits, we are rated so high on "win rate"

Anyone know how they calculate "win rate"? 

Obviously run D is a problem: I'd like to see breakdown by parts of the season (1st 3rd, middle 3rd, last 3rd)

 

The thing that interests me is that a 64% pass block win rate (however that is calculated) AKA we let the rusher through 1 out of 3 passing plays? is 4th in the NFL! and supported #3 team passing attack for yards, #4 for QB completions.

 

But a 69% run block win rate is 4th WORST in the NFL and supported only a bottom-tier YPC, even worse if you take out Allen's scrambles (yeah yeah gotta subtract the other team's QB yards too, but I don't think any of the teams that are below us for rush YPA had dual-threat QBs)

 

Not just against KC, but we play a lot of off coverage. Or at the very least not very much press at all. If I had to guess, we have a decent win rate at the line, but give to much cushion for completions before we can get there. 
 

DL is a major need, run stop proves that. But we still have major issues with DB depth. Tre, Poyer, and to a lesser extent Hyde, are carrying that unit on their backs.