That's No Moon Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Giant Meteor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 KC, the bye week is a pipe dream thanks to the AZ loss. But the division is a goal this team needs to take and right now Miami stands in the way of that. A win against the Steelers (a tall order but doable) and a Fins loss would set this team up to win the division easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 KC for sure. Have to worry about the division before anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LewPort71 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 K C all the way. Those of us old enough to remember the decade of losses to Miami in the 1970s would be very reluctant to cheer for Miami for any reason Unless of course the Dolphins are playing the Cheatriots.   1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: KC, absolutely. I've conceded the #1 slot to KC. It's almost impossible to catch them given that they have head-to-head vs. Buffalo. Not necessarily. If you do the playoff machine there are two ways that we can get the number 1 seed. The first is we finish 13-3 with the Steelers but hold a head to head tiebreaker against them and the Chiefs finish 12-4 which is not very likely. However, the second way seems a little more attainable. If there is a 3 way tie at 13-3 between us, the Chiefs and the Steelers then we get the number 1 seed because tie breakers are different on 3 ways ties than they are with two teams. Even with the Chiefs having head to head over us, a 3 way tie at 13-3 gives us the number 1 seed.  We should actually root for the Dolphins to win this game because it's clear of the two teams the Chiefs are the better team over the Dolphins. The Dolphins remaining games are Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills. I feel like the Dolphins will lose at least two of those last three games. If they steal one from the Chiefs, it wouldn't be to big a deal. The Chiefs however have the Saints, Falcons and Chargers after the Dolphins game. Brees should be back for that game against them which could give the Chiefs a loss. So, 13-3 for them is a lot more likely. Especially considering the almost lost to the Raiders a couple weeks ago and had a game with the Broncos last week. Rooting for the Dolphins might be better for this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Take this with a grain of salt im only 75% sure this is correct lol I think they use the wildcard tiebreaking rules to determine home field for division winners...so the head to head is not applicable since all three teams didn't play eachother and you'd drop down to conference win percentage...if we won out we'd have two conference losses and kc would have 3 so that would eliminate them leaving only pitt and we have the head to head over pitt  Just plugging things into the NY Times Playoff simulator.  Right now the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the Conference. That grows to 7% if the Bills beat the Steelers and the Fins beat the Chiefs.  The Bills then have an 18% of winning the Conference if they beat the Broncos and the Saints beat the Chiefs. But that grows to 100% if the Steelers lose one more to either the Browns or the Colts, and the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs finish in a 13-3 tie.   3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Kansas City holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over us.  Which means even if we win-out, they would need to lose at least three games for us to pass them for the #1 seed.  Their upcoming games are Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta and San Diego. I have a very tough time seeing them lose two of those games, much less three.  Miami is still a big threat. They are only 1-game back, have a similarly difficult schedule left as we do, and of course play us in Week 17.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Arkady Renko said: Â Might have a decent shot if there is a three-way tie with Pittsburgh? Â I ran it thru the playoff thing and we do win but requires lots of dogs beating both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Motorin' said:  Just plugging things into the NY Times Playoff simulator.  Right now the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the Conference. That grows to 7% if the Bills beat the Steelers and the Fins beat the Chiefs.  The Bills then have an 18% of winning the Conference if they beat the Broncos and the Saints beat the Chiefs. But that grows to 100% if the Steelers lose one more to either the Browns or the Colts, and the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs finish in a 13-3 tie.   Yea I screwed up with knowing how many conference wins the teams would likely have in a three way tie in my last post but we would be the 1 seed at a three way 13-3 tie. Chiefs get bounced on the win percentage against common opponents tiebreaker so it comes down to us and the steelers and we have h2h Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win?  KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1.  This is assuming a Bills win this weekend.  I want KC to win.  If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal. Definitely KC. We're not going to get the #1 seed. Having the Dolphins lose however puts us closer to the AFCE crown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Take this with a grain of salt im only 75% sure this is correct lol I think they use the wildcard tiebreaking rules to determine home field for division winners...so the head to head is not applicable since all three teams didn't play eachother and you'd drop down to conference win percentage...if we won out we'd have two conference losses and kc would have 3 so that would eliminate them leaving only pitt and we have the head to head over pitt How can you toss out the head to head in the first sentence and use it in the second sentence?  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedboy7 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 A tie would be cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: How can you toss out the head to head in the first sentence and use it in the second sentence?  Head to head does not apply in a three team scenario if the three teams haven't all played eachother...so the first use of the tiebreaker rules is to eliminate one and make it a two team tie and you restart from the top of the tiebreaker rules...they don't do a great job explaining it on the website but ill try to track down the relevant quotes 🤣 its honestly a little silly that we lost to kc but are undefeated against common opponents with kc and can eliminate them but that is the way it is lol if kc had played pitt it would be a different story...a kc win over pit wouldve had them at 2-0 against us two and couldve eliminated us both in one tiebreaker rule. If pitt beat kc we'd all be 1-1 head to head and the same thing described before of kc getting eliminated on common opponents would happen...and by eliminate i mean eliminate from the #1 seed of course lol Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said: Kansas City. All day and twice on Sunday.  I don't think the NFLPA would allow them to play more than one game in a day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Gugny said:  I don't think the NFLPA would allow them to play more than one game in a day. Theyd let it happen to the Steelers though 🤣 3 games in 11 days is pretty ridiculous but I won't complain if it gets us a win Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) I think our best scenario(outside of getting the 1 or 2 seed) is we go into a week 17 game with Miami thats meaningless for us but the dolphins need a win to make the playoffs and then we get a rematch with Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Idk if we could hold the 3 seed playing backups against Miami though so maybe thats impossible.   If you could somehow guarantee me the bills beat the steelers maybe a Miami win over kc would be a good thing Edited December 8, 2020 by Generic_Bills_Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 56 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said: Not necessarily. If you do the playoff machine there are two ways that we can get the number 1 seed. The first is we finish 13-3 with the Steelers but hold a head to head tiebreaker against them and the Chiefs finish 12-4 which is not very likely. However, the second way seems a little more attainable. If there is a 3 way tie at 13-3 between us, the Chiefs and the Steelers then we get the number 1 seed because tie breakers are different on 3 ways ties than they are with two teams. Even with the Chiefs having head to head over us, a 3 way tie at 13-3 gives us the number 1 seed.  We should actually root for the Dolphins to win this game because it's clear of the two teams the Chiefs are the better team over the Dolphins. The Dolphins remaining games are Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills. I feel like the Dolphins will lose at least two of those last three games. If they steal one from the Chiefs, it wouldn't be to big a deal. The Chiefs however have the Saints, Falcons and Chargers after the Dolphins game. Brees should be back for that game against them which could give the Chiefs a loss. So, 13-3 for them is a lot more likely. Especially considering the almost lost to the Raiders a couple weeks ago and had a game with the Broncos last week. Rooting for the Dolphins might be better for this week I believe that KC is going to destroy Miami. Miami feasts on turnovers and STs. KC has great STs and doesn't turn the ball over. They're first in the league in fewest turnovers given up. KC is also smelling a bye now; so they're going to go for the kill. They are a LOT better than Miami. KC will also win their final two home games with ease.  Edited December 8, 2020 by dave mcbride 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 It would feel really good to win the division and put New England's dominance behind us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I believe that KC is going to destroy Miami. Miami feasts on turnovers and STs. KC has great STs and doesn't turn the ball over. They're first in the league in fewest turnovers given up. KC is also smelling a bye now; so they're going to go for the kill. They are a LOT better than Miami. KC will also win their final two home games with ease.  Definitely the smartest bet lol Miami is very middle of the pack on all the football analytics sites for the folks that care about that stuff...im not sure where these 'Miami is the best thing since sliced bread' posters were coming from 🤣 they just had a pretty big soft spot in their schedule and they finish with 4 tough ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win?  KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1.  This is assuming a Bills win this weekend.  I want KC to win.  If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal.  I want KC in a stomp. Bills aren't catching KC in the standings. No how, no way.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 56 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: How can you toss out the head to head in the first sentence and use it in the second sentence?   Division Seeding uses the Wildcard Tie Breaking procedures.  Three or More Clubs (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Strength of victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 ^^^^^^^^  I believe that’s how we got in a few seasons ago, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2zipper Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Yeah Kansas City. The way to get a so-called playoff by is by clinching the division early so people can sit during week 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020  I really just Can’t root for the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 KC all the way. Winning the division is job one. A Miami loss makes that easier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Joshin' Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Is this serious? KC is the only answer. Win the division. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win?  KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1.  This is assuming a Bills win this weekend.  I want KC to win.  If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal. We want to go into Week 17 with the division wrapped up and a chance to possibly improve our seeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 If you're rooting for MIA you have problems that people on this board can't help you with. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win?  KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1.  This is assuming a Bills win this weekend.  I want KC to win.  If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal. Great question. I want Miami to win. That gives us a shot at the bye. We are ahead in the Div race and play em week 17. Sry to be in the minority here - but I am not scared of Miami.  Maybe I hv problems lol.  Played the playoff predictor - a few games have to fall our way - but Miami besting KC and us beating Pittsburgh gives us decent odds at a bye (basically aiming for KC and Pitt to lose one more game each in the last 3 they play to give us a 3 way tie) Edited December 9, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: I believe that KC is going to destroy Miami. Miami feasts on turnovers and STs. KC has great STs and doesn't turn the ball over. They're first in the league in fewest turnovers given up. KC is also smelling a bye now; so they're going to go for the kill. They are a LOT better than Miami. KC will also win their final two home games with ease.  I'm not denying the Chiefs are better. I also think the Chiefs kill the Dolphins but you never know in this league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Returntoglory Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 oh and don’t forget to root for the Jets to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Playoff Predictor: If the Bills win out, KC win puts our chances of a bye at 3% and a Dolphins win puts it at 39%. Those are not impossible odds people - remember KC still has to play Saints and Steelers still have to face Browns.  Please please root for Miami to beat KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klos63 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Probably KC, but I generally root for teams in front of us to lose and don't care if teams behind us win. But the division is tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheektowaga Chad Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I would root for KC but if they lose there are positives too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said: So who do we want to win?  KC to provide more wiggle room in the AFCE or Miami to provide the Bills with a slim chance to get #1.  This is assuming a Bills win this weekend.  I want KC to win.  If we were 10-2, yes for sure Mia but getting the East is the first goal.  KC no question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Chefs please, scalp the fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msw2112 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I get the idea of the OP, but the odds of us catching KC and overcoming the tie breaker to get the #1 seed are very slim, particularly given that they won the head-to-head. The smarter money is to root for KC to win and maintain or increase the Bills' lead over Miami and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
par73 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 KC. I want Miami gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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