Which Bills Starter is most likely to regress in 2020?

[BisonMan]

This team has done a lot this off-season to improve across of the weak areas, both offense and defense. I think the team is much better on paper than they were in 2019. I’m having trouble identifying a spot that’s weaker now than last year.

 

So, an open question. Is there a starter that’s on the team now that you think is the most likely to regress in 2020? Of course, this is not accounting for injuries that might occur.

 

My first thought was Trent Murphy but I think his game is pretty stable, if not spectacular, and not likely to regress. So, my pick is Jerry Hughes. He’s getting older and at some point, his speed will fall off. This could be that year for him.

 

What players are you concerned about having a fall-off in performance from 2020?

[whatdrought]

Quinton Spain jumps to mind. 
 

Brown and Beasley, one of them will likely regress due to Diggs getting targets.

[ganesh]

One of the two safeties 

[Steve Billieve]

I almost don't want to say it, but Devin's rookie year was so good . . . regression to the mean . . .

 

[unbillievable]

Gore.

He went to the Jets.

[Dkollidas]

Hughes. I wonder if he might be ready to start falling off the cliff. He didn’t get sacks last year, but he was still getting pressure. I wonder if that takes a noticeable step down this year. Nice thing is we have depth, but we don’t really have anyone who does what Hughes does (Speed off the edge).

[NoSaint]

42 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Quinton Spain jumps to mind. 
 

Brown and Beasley, one of them will likely regress due to Diggs getting targets.

I’ll say brown on offense.

 

not because of statistics or less targets- just  doesn’t have that highly consistent past before last year. He didn’t string together constant months on end yet alone seasons. 
 

not using it as a knock but if forced to choose and guy for a guy that might go back to their average- he was a bit above that mark last year. 
 

Dawkins should be motivated but might be a guy that suffers being out of the building. 

[Hebert19]

44 minutes ago, ganesh said:

One of the two safeties 

This.   I think poyer extension was a bad idea.  He will be benched this year. 

11 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

Hughes. I wonder if he might be ready to start falling off the cliff. He didn’t get sacks last year, but he was still getting pressure. I wonder if that takes a noticeable step down this year. Nice thing is we have depth, but we don’t really have anyone who does what Hughes does (Speed off the edge).

I think opposite.  He excels with help

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Easily Cole Beasley or John Brown. Until proven otherwise I don't see Josh Allen being a top passer attempts and yards wise. I don't see 3 WR's topping 50 receptions. Not sure which one drops off the face of the earth. My guess is John Brown, but possibly both drop. I believe Brown goes from 70+ catches and 1000+ yards all the way down to something like 40-50 catches and 500-600 yards. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[CaptnCoke11]

59 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Quinton Spain jumps to mind. 
 

Brown and Beasley, one of them will likely regress due to Diggs getting targets.

I wouldn’t call that regressing.. more of only so many targets to go around 

[jwhit34]

Star Lotuleilei

[Putin]

Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson !!!

[Augie]

I don’t like to look for the possible negatives. My wife would divorce me. It’s no fun living like that.  

 

BUT, if I had to guess, Brown will get fewer targets, hence less production. That could mean a very good thing for the Bills if Diggs is having a good year. There’s the positive spin on a player regressing. Someone else shining! 

 

 

.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Augie

[BisonMan]

42 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Easily Cole Beasley or John Brown. Until proven otherwise I don't see Josh Allen being a top passer attempts and yards wise. I don't see 3 WR's topping 50 receptions. Not sure which one drops off the face of the earth. My guess is John Brown, but possibly both drop. I believe Brown goes from 70+ catches and 1000+ yards all the way down to something like 40-50 catches and 500-600 yards. 

I assume they’ll get less targets/yards with Diggs on the team. However, I don’t consider this as them regressing in terms of their play. They may even be playing better and still rack up lower stats. Knox might also contribute to less production from these two, especially Beasley. That’s probably a good thing.

[billrooter]

1 hour ago, BisonMan said:

This team has done a lot this off-season to improve across of the weak areas, both offense and defense. I think the team is much better on paper than they were in 2019. I’m having trouble identifying a spot that’s weaker now than last year.

 

So, an open question. Is there a starter that’s on the team now that you think is the most likely to regress in 2020? Of course, this is not accounting for injuries that might occur.

 

My first thought was Trent Murphy but I think his game is pretty stable, if not spectacular, and not likely to regress. So, my pick is Jerry Hughes. He’s getting older and at some point, his speed will fall off. This could be that year for him.

 

What players are you concerned about having a fall-off in performance from 2020?

Hughes makes sense but with the improved line I could see his sacks rising and I don't foresee Murphy making the team.

[njbuff]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

Hughes. I wonder if he might be ready to start falling off the cliff. He didn’t get sacks last year, but he was still getting pressure. I wonder if that takes a noticeable step down this year. Nice thing is we have depth, but we don’t really have anyone who does what Hughes does (Speed off the edge).

 

Hughes is coming off a 3-sack playoff game. He is 32 and still has gas in the tank.

 

And with the support around him, Hughes could have a very good send off season (as he is a FA after 2020).

[Bubba Gump]

I could see Singletary regressing some if Zack Moss plays to his potential. Not to mention Gore was pretty invisible the 2nd half of last season, so that meant more work for Devin as well.

 

Patrick DiMarco may not do much (not that he has lately) if he even makes the team.

[Like A Mofo]

John Brown for sure.

 

I can see Diggs taking a nice chunk away from his 2019 numbers. But it dosen't mean John Brown is any less of a player then he was in 2019.

[TwistofFate]

Regress is such a strong word but as much as I hate to say it, Tre White.  I think he's really going to be challenged this year.  He has made a real name for himself, is a marked man, and we will face some top tier offenses this year.  I think we will see a drop off from him, maybe not major, but "uncharacteristic."

[Bob in STL]

Ed Oliver is off to a bad start.  

[Milanos Milano]

Hughes 

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

I almost don't want to say it, but Devin's rookie year was so good . . . regression to the mean . . .

 

I think Devin is gonna be even better because the OL will return intact.

 

My pick is John Brown.....because he isnt going to get the amount of passes thrown his way with a true number 1 on the field.  If Brown can make the most out of his catches he could be our Peerless Price

[whatdrought]

8 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I wouldn’t call that regressing.. more of only so many targets to go around 

You don’t consider less production regression? 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Foster.

*
???

Oh, 'starter'.  Not 'argument starter'.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[HOUSE]

Steve Hauscka or Tyler Kroft, you pick

[aristocrat]

Brown comes to mind first. Hope it’s not Norman 

[Kirby Jackson]

Good topic @BisonMan and some good answers so far too. I’m going to go Brown I think. Was last year a “coming out party” or a result of circumstance? I still think that he will be productive but more in the 700 yards and 5 TD range. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

I am a little worried about Milano. Matt has started to show a little bit of injuries here and there. Couple that with his size and every game/year is more punishment,  am keeping my eye on him. He didn’t play great last year while dealing with the hammie. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

1. Beasley - his snaps are going to be reduced with Diggs and Davis and other WRs are getting reps with Allen.

2. Murphy - With Addison taking over Lawson’s snaps and Epenesa / Jefferson taking over Murphy’s snaps - but I thought Murphy improved as the season went on - so there is still a chance the veteran beats out the newbies. Murphy is still our #1 trade candidate.

 

[bmur66]

I don’t get the lack of appreciation for Murphy. I really thought he was playing well last year and improved as the year went along. He became the player they hoped he would be when they signed him. It may have taken longer to recover from his injury than was hoped for but he did it.

[Mr. WEO]

Likely Singletary.  They just drafted a guy with a much tougher running style to use near the goal line as well (where Daboll would not use Singletary).  Plus Moss is a better receiver.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Augie said:

I don’t like to look for the possible negatives. My wife would divorce me. It’s no fun living like that.  

 

BUT, if I had to guess, Brown will get fewer targets, hence less production. That could mean a very good thing for the Bills if Diggs is having a good year. There’s the positive spin on a player regressing. Someone else shining! 

 

 

Maybe for you. I find relentless optimism the least fun thing in the world. People who smile too much really grind my gears. 

46 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Good topic @BisonMan and some good answers so far too. I’m going to go Brown I think. Was last year a “coming out party” or a result of circumstance? I still think that he will be productive but more in the 700 yards and 5 TD range. 

 

Yea, this is my answer too. 

[Buffalo Boy]

8 hours ago, Like A Mofo said:

John Brown for sure.

 

I can see Diggs taking a nice chunk away from his 2019 numbers. But it dosen't mean John Brown is any less of a player then he was in 2019.

    I think it depends on what you define “ regression “ as. I think Brown could even be more dangerous with Diggs around. Maybe fewer yards and receptions but more TDs as he becomes the more open option, especially in the Redzone.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Ed Oliver is off to a bad start.  

 

Not much room for regression.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

35 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

1. Beasley - his snaps are going to be reduced with Diggs and Davis and other WRs are getting reps with Allen.

2. Murphy - With Addison taking over Lawson’s snaps and Epenesa / Jefferson taking over Murphy’s snaps - but I thought Murphy improved as the season went on - so there is still a chance the veteran beats out the newbies. Murphy is still our #1 trade candidate.

 

See I don’t see Beasley losing any reps. Those other receivers playing will be on the outside. I suppose that they could slide Diggs inside but I don’t see that at the expense of Beasley. It may be with Beasley in a 4 wide set. 

[DCOrange]

11 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

I almost don't want to say it, but Devin's rookie year was so good . . . regression to the mean . . .

 

This was my thought as well. 
 

In terms of raw numbers, the obvious choice is John Brown. Coming off a career year and he’s not the #1 option anymore.

 

But in terms of actual play quality, Singletary was ridiculously good on a still small-ish sample size. 

[Big Gun]

Why does anyone have to regress?

[Milanos Milano]

In a way, I don’t see much regression. I’m expecting this team to be better than the Super Bowl 25 Bills. 

If this team had a Bruce Smith, we would be elite. 

[Don Otreply]

11 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Quinton Spain jumps to mind. 
 

Brown and Beasley, one of them will likely regress due to Diggs getting targets.

I always think of regressing as losing talent due to age or just getting lazy, I don’t see not being targeted as much due to Diggs getting more targets as regression on Brown or Beasleys part, that to me is a redistribution of resources more than anything, and that is likely to change from game to game, or even within a game. Just a thought... 

 

Go Bills!!!

Edited May 24, 2020 by Don Otreply

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

You don’t consider less production regression? 

I think it’s easy to argue a player could improve and see less production. 
 

the Op didn’t specifically say stats or quality of play. The two items don’t always go hand in hand.