offsides#76FredSmerlas Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Would you pull this trade off if you were the Bills GM? John Brown for AJ Green AJ Green is not happy in Cincy and wants a new deal. He is a perennial pro bowler, (7 pro bowls). AJ Green has only played 4 full seasons out of 9. He probably would play 2 more years tops. Personally I think for the short term he would be amazing on the other side of Diggs, almost like what James Lofton was for Andre Reed. He is great with the intermediate and deep ball and has a knack for the end zone. John Brown's value has never been higher. He is coming off a great year with Buffalo and has 2 years remaining on his contract. He lacks size but is a very good route runner and came through in the clutch many times for us last year. John Brown has only played 2 full seasons out of 6. AJ Green (will be 32yrs old when the season begins) John Brown (will be 30yrs old when the season begins) 6'4 5'11 9 seasons 6 seasons 75 catches per season avg 48 catches per season avg 1,113 yards per season avg 715 yards per season avg 8 td's per season avg 5 td's per season avg 7 pro bowls 0 pro bowls 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 No 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemac2001 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 John brown and josh Allen seemed to be on the same page so I say no way to this he was the only WR getting any separation last year and IDK if aj can bring that to the table 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I’m tearing up a little. An AJ Green thread. I missed you!!!! 2 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Can we trade Brian Dabolll for CeeLo Green, instead? 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) You're looking at statistics the wrong way. You shouldn't look at them over the player's entire career. You should be looking at them in a statistically relevant sample size, or in this case, the most recent years, and not just over a one year period which could give you anomalies. A good sample size is the last three years. In that case you'd end up with the following: That said why would you trade a younger player, for an older, more injured player who is less productive? Especially when the younger player just had his best career as a pro? Player Current Age GMS/YR Rec/YR Yrds/YR TD/YR Green 30 9 43 570 4 Brown 29 13 45 690 4 Edited April 28, 2020 by thenorthremembers 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 You clearly haven't seen John Brown's touchdown dance. 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 No. John Brown should be a monster this year with the opposing teams #2 on him, and knock on wood... he’s durable. Id rather have a big play guy we can count on opposite Diggs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: You're looking at statistics the wrong way. You shouldn't look at them over the player's entire career. You should be looking at them in a statistically relevant sample size, or in this case, the most recent years, and not just over a one year period which could give you anomalies. A good sample size is the last three years. In that case you'd end up with the following: That said why would you trade a younger player, for an older, more injured player who is less productive? Especially when the younger player just had his best career as a pro? Player Current Age GMS/YR Rec/YR Yrds/YR TD/YR Green 30 9 43 570 4 Brown 29 13 45 690 4 If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade. Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically. If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player. If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal. Edited April 28, 2020 by Billl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 They don’t want to trade AJ Green. Enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClovisBillsFan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 How about no! Chemistry a true #1 on other side. Not to mention $ and impact on signing key core players in future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Maybe if they throw in a second. But even then, I don’t see a need. Diggs and Brown are a sexy compliment to me because the both are 3 level threats whose speed has to be accounted for. You can’t play single high against them on the outside. We wanted that to happen with Foster and Brown on the outside, but Foster laid an egg. We know we’re getting it with Brown and Diggs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I would not do that trade, primarily because of Green’s injury issues recently. That, and Brown seems to be trending up the last two seasons. Peak AJ Green is a better player for sure. But I don’t think peak AJ exists anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjv001 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Absolutely not. Especially this season where continuity is at a premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanForever19 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) Josh himself said last season that he wouldn't trade Smoke for anything. So no. https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/11/bills-josh-allen-wouldnt-trade-john-brown-for-anything-he-is-an-all-time-teammate.html Edited April 28, 2020 by BillsFanForever19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Billl said: If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade. Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically. If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player. If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal. the statistics on whether he returns to full strength or plays in all of those games where he is not helping you at all is 0 divided by zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClovisBillsFan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Continuity is king. One of the reasons the Bills are viewed as on the rise. Limited coaching and key position turnover. A known entity brought in with Diggs, vs rookie WR while very talented may take some additional development time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Huff Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Which brings me to my next point, don’t smoke crack.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, Billl said: If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade. Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically. If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player. If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal. The best decisions are made by taking the scenario that has fewer "what ifs." For me its a no brainer to keep Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Please stop! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: The best decisions are made by taking the scenario that has fewer "what ifs." For me its a no brainer to keep Brown. Brown is easily replaceable. AJ Green’s upside is not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 46 minutes ago, Mark80 said: You clearly haven't seen John Brown's touchdown dance. It NEVER gets old! 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 There's no indication that either team wants to trade these players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Billl said: Brown is easily replaceable. AJ Green’s upside is not. Completely disagree with you. A.J. Green hasnt been a top player at his position in going on five seasons. His production since then has been easily replaced on his own team by Tyler Boyd. John Brown's 2019 season is arguably the best season a Bills wideout has had since Stevie Johnson in 2010. That said, I'd say Brown's importance to Buffalo eclipses what Green has meant to Cincinnati. A.J. Green's upside hasn't been in play for close to five years now. No way you trade a known resource, for a player thats 30 years old, and has played nine games in two years just because he is tall and used to be good. If you want to go that route Demaryius Thomas is a free agent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 No....Smoke has chemistry with Josh. Now is not the time to disrupt that. Besides the age and injury factor is too big to ignore. Stick with this very good trio and hope Davis / Hodgins develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 What, no! Why! This is dumb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsShredder83 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Brown was pretty much our offensive mvp even over JA17 last year imho! Noooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Can we stop trying to make A.J. Green happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Gugny said: Can we trade Brian Dabolll for CeeLo Green, instead? Ha, now, ain't that some s***? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I gather somebody's Madden game broke from overuse during quarantine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 A lot of good arguments - but nobody brought in money on this one yet. AJ green is on a franchise tag of about 18 million - Browns base salary is 7. We'd have to eat 3.2 million of bonus on JB's deal so we'd then essentially be dedicating 21 million of cap to AJ green for 1 year. If you want to keep him after that year the tag goes up 20% so it becomes a 2 year deal for like 40 million or more. U also lose the asset of JB's contract in year 3. Sub 10 million cap hit for a starting WR on a non-rookie deal is a real nice deal. Year 3 also has like nothing guaranteed so if you decide to roll with Davis, you are free to do so with little in the way of cap effect. He also has some trade value with a dollar value that low. With Green you likely let him walk, not necessarily by choice, and possibly get a comp pick in 2022. This doesn't factor in the fact that AJ has not played football since basically October 2018 (he had 1 catch in december, but none in the 3 games in novemeber)... To me - it isn't worth the risk of re-injury, nor is it worth the financial risk after making the Diggs trade. I'd consider this case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hjnick Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, dneveu said: A lot of good arguments - but nobody brought in money on this one yet. AJ green is on a franchise tag of about 18 million - Browns base salary is 7. We'd have to eat 3.2 million of bonus on JB's deal so we'd then essentially be dedicating 21 million of cap to AJ green for 1 year. If you want to keep him after that year the tag goes up 20% so it becomes a 2 year deal for like 40 million or more. U also lose the asset of JB's contract in year 3. Sub 10 million cap hit for a starting WR on a non-rookie deal is a real nice deal. Year 3 also has like nothing guaranteed so if you decide to roll with Davis, you are free to do so with little in the way of cap effect. He also has some trade value with a dollar value that low. With Green you likely let him walk, not necessarily by choice, and possibly get a comp pick in 2022. This doesn't factor in the fact that AJ has not played football since basically October 2018 (he had 1 catch in december, but none in the 3 games in novemeber)... To me - it isn't worth the risk of re-injury, nor is it worth the financial risk after making the Diggs trade. I'd consider this case closed. Yeah, what he said... 1) Too old 2) Too hurt 3) Too $$$ Other than that, Green's a catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Gugny said: Can we trade Brian Dabolll for CeeLo Green, instead? ____ you and ____ that too. ? (That's literally the only CeeLo Green song I know.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Offside#76FredSmerlas said: Would you pull this trade off if you were the Bills GM? John Brown for AJ Green Well I think we know your answer. AJ Green is about ready for the glue factory. He is half unable to play and half unwilling to play. Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, hjnick said: Yeah, what he said... 1) Too old 2) Too hurt 3) Too $$$ Other than that, Green's a catch! Why not Dez Bryant? he hasn't played since 2017 and would cost like 5% of AJ green and its not guaranteed. Not that i think buffalo needs another WR at this point. Top 4 is pretty much set with depth who can fill in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I never understood the "trade him while he has value" argument. It's like trading in a car that still runs well "because it has value." If it has value, then keep it! And in this case, we'd be trading in a car that runs well for an older model that's been in the shop a lot lately and doesn't run as well. Sure, the older one was a better model at one time, but I'll take a reliable Chevy over a sputtering Cadillac any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceman_16 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Yeah....no!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 No. You know Diggs will want the ball. Brown is a good teammate and will pay his role as a #2. Green is not used to being a #2. Besides, Brown and Josh already click, We might not have enough footballs to go around if you add Green.: Diggs - Brown or AJ Green - Beasley - The TE - Singletary/Moss - 4th Wideout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Notwithstanding the many knee jerk reactions, this is actually an interesting proposition. Not sure what I would do. I doubt either are in the league 3 years from now. It really comes down to who I think is going to do the most this year. Not sure who that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Digg? Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 This hypothetical is clearly coming from 20 years of no playoffs, always looking ahead to the next draft, what guy can we trade to get draft picks, if we just get this one guy the team will be amazing...For some people it takes longer to shake that feeling than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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