The Frankish Reich Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 From the Wall Street Journal (paywall): https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-patriots-have-a-tom-brady-problem-11575905620?cx_testId=30&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s It is behind a paywall, but (for Pats fans) this is probably the most incisive and troubling analysis I've seen. I'm sure gamblers have gotten rich on betting against "Brady is in decline" takes, but this time I think it's real. A couple short clips: Quote On the season, Brady is averaging his fewest yards per pass attempt since 2002, when most of his teammates were in elementary school and passing across the league was far less efficient. Over the last 10 games, he has a 78.9 passer rating, which ranks 25th out of 27 qualified passers. His yards per attempt, in that span, are dead last among those 27 quarterbacks. And this makes a lot of sense to me: Quote Brady, in large part, has stayed unimaginably healthy not due to a diet regimen of coconut chips, but because of how he styled his game. He throws short passes and gets rid of the ball quickly to stymie the incoming pass rush, which happens to compensate for the diminishments that come with age—decreased arm strength and durability. But the same trends that prompt him to avoid hits are also integral to his problems: Brady has thrown away more passes than any quarterback in the NFL this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'm just glad they decide to go to the end with Brady rather than going with Jimmy G. 15 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The league has a New England patriots problem..... 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Clearly it's not Tom's fault, it is the Refs' fault. Just ask any Patriots fan, the zebras are totally against them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 This is just horrible horrible news 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 We already know he has been declining since at least mid last year by pretty much every analytic/statistic there is. Nobody is scared of him or their offense anymore. He is a game manager now. A very good one, but one nonetheless. That being said, they are still a very good team but the D and ST are what is carrying them now, not the offense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 This just means the refs will help the Pats cheat even more, yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'll believe it when I see it. I will see it when we beat the Patriots a**es in FoxBoro 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewin Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: I'm just glad they decide to go to the end with Brady rather than going with Jimmy G. It's so great that Brady's insecurity and ego forced their hand to get rid of a ready-made successor. What a douche 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 You just hate to see it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: From the Wall Street Journal (paywall): https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-patriots-have-a-tom-brady-problem-11575905620?cx_testId=30&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s It is behind a paywall, but (for Pats fans) this is probably the most incisive and troubling analysis I've seen. I'm sure gamblers have gotten rich on betting against "Brady is in decline" takes, but this time I think it's real. A couple short clips: And this makes a lot of sense to me: Couldnt agree more and is the reason why we have the strong possibility of winning the last three. I know the Steelers are hot now, but that first year QB has not faced our defense or anything like it. we have to get open and he has to get rid of the ball fast. I can’t wait to get an early Xmas present beating the Pats in NE, and the Jets (do I need to say more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I am glad a downfall appears to be on the horizon, but I'm seeing terrible offensive personnel as the biggest issue. Gronk is gone, the oline is really banged up and a below avg group of wrs. Sure, Brady is 42 and on the decline, but if he still had a Gronk type TE, a healthy oline, and even our WRs, they beat the Chiefs and probably the Texans. Ravens still smoke em. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTbills Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dopey said: I am glad a downfall appears to be on the horizon, but I'm seeing terrible offensive personnel as the biggest issue. Gronk is gone, the oline is really banged up and a below avg group of wrs. Sure, Brady is 42 and on the decline, but if he still had a Gronk type TE, a healthy oline, and even our WRs, they beat the Chiefs and probably the Texans. Ravens still smoke em. I agree. Brady isn't as great as he used to be, but the bigger issue is his lack of weapons this year. But still. They are 10-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, CLTbills said: I agree. Brady isn't as great as he used to be, but the bigger issue is his lack of weapons this year. But still. They are 10-3. I agree that the lack of weapons is an issue, but no qb I've seen this year has had fewer weapons to work with than Carson Wentz last night - in the second half, he was down to two roster-churn-level WRs plus 3 TEs. Then he went down to one WR when one of them got hurt. Yet he was still slinging and pushing the ball down the field with accuracy. The one caveat is that the Giants' defense is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, CLTbills said: I agree. Brady isn't as great as he used to be, but the bigger issue is his lack of weapons this year. But still. They are 10-3. I will say this regarding them being 10-3 - they have beaten a lot of the same teams that the "can't beat anyone" bills have beaten. Against mediocre to good teams they're something like 4-3. Just now, dave mcbride said: I agree that the lack of weapons is an issue, but no qb I've seen this year has had fewer weapons to work with than Carson Wentz last night - in the second half, he was down to two roster-churn-level WRs plus 3 TEs. Then he went down to one WR when one of them got hurt. Yet he was still slinging and pushing the ball down the field with accuracy. The one caveat is that the Giants' defense is terrible. Who dresses 3 WRs for a game...? Is this the Airforce offense? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 50 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'll believe it when I see it. I will see it when we beat the Patriots a**es in FoxBoro Can you imagine the absolute dejection which would be upon Brady's face at that point? It would be glorious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I agree that the lack of weapons is an issue, but no qb I've seen this year has had fewer weapons to work with than Carson Wentz last night - in the second half, he was down to two roster-churn-level WRs plus 3 TEs. Then he went down to one WR when one of them got hurt. Yet he was still slinging and pushing the ball down the field with accuracy. The one caveat is that the Giants' defense is terrible. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Romo was making any excuse possible for Brady. It’s his receivers. He doesn’t have the high-caliber talent around him. He basically needs to be surrounded by a dream team now to be effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'll believe it when I see it. I will see it when we beat the Patriots a**es in FoxBoro What do you mean? The Pats didn’t beat the Bills because of Brady. In fact Beady almost cost them the game. The Pats are winning with block punts and opportunistic offense after a team turns the ball over. The days of 80 yard back breaking drives by Brady are over. I wouldn’t even worry giving him the all back at the end of the game. He can’t do it anymore. Edited December 11, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 He is having an almost identical statistical season to his 2003, wanna guess how that season ended? It's not over until he retires or moves to another division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The only person likely shocked by any of this is Tom Brady. That arm is out of ammunition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klos63 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Brady has to throw the ball away more now. Despite how great a shape he keeps himself, a 42 year old can't take the hits that a younger player can. Keep putting pressure up the middle on him and you can beat him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket94 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'll believe it when I see it. I will see it when we beat the Patriots a**es in FoxBoro If the Bills beat them at Foxboro, we may be able to change the conversation. We are getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry Jabber Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Ever since that 56-10 beating the Bills took at home in 2007 by the Patriots, I've been wanting to see the Bills get a blowout victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Hopefully that will finally come to fruition in a couple of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellyToTasker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jerry Jabber said: Ever since that 56-10 beating the Bills took at home in 2007 by the Patriots, I've been wanting to see the Bills get a blowout victory against the Patriots in Foxboro. Hopefully that will finally come to fruition in a couple of weeks. You’ve been patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 At what point is it not worth it? I would think a guy like Belichick would get a lot more value out of a young, athletic, and impressionable QB with a rookie wage scale salary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry Jabber Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, KellyToTasker said: You’ve been patient. I think this is my last chance to see it happen while Brady is still the Patriots starting QB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Quint Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Can anyone post a GIF of Carlton Banks from Fresh Prince dancing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: I'm just glad they decide to go to the end with Brady rather than going with Jimmy G. This would have been Jimmy G's 6th year on the bench, with a likely 7th coming next year. 1 hour ago, stevewin said: It's so great that Brady's insecurity and ego forced their hand to get rid of a ready-made successor. What a douche Since they drafted Jimmy G, NE has appeared in 4 SBs and won 2. 2 of those appearances the last 2 seasons since they traded him away. As stated above, unless Brady (whos is still running a top 10 scoring and passing offense on a 10-3 team) retires this off season, Garappolo would be siting indefinitely on the bench. What would be the point of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsrul120 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: This would have been Jimmy G's 6th year on the bench, with a likely 7th coming next year. Since they drafted Jimmy G, NE has appeared in 4 SBs and won 2. 2 of those appearances the last 2 seasons since they traded him away. As stated above, unless Brady (whos is still running a top 10 scoring and passing offense on a 10-3 team) retires this off season, Garappolo would be siting indefinitely on the bench. What would be the point of that? Patriots are scoring 18.75 per game over their last 4. There offense if clearly trending down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 (edited) It’s about time, everyone else has for 20 years. Edited December 10, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, stevewin said: It's so great that Brady's insecurity and ego forced their hand to get rid of a ready-made successor. What a douche Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 For most of the year he's been missing Gronk, his left tackle, and now his center. They have no speed on the outside. And his arm may be in decline as well. Mike Lombardi's take Yes, quarterback Tom Brady does not look like himself. Yes, he is throwing the lowest yards per attempt (6.6) since the 2002 season, and yes, the offense is struggling to do anything effectively. When a team cannot make plays down the field in the passing game, it becomes harder and harder to score, especially later in the season. Yes, it’s easy to say that they lack explosive players, but the issues run much deeper than that. The lack of big plays and points (88 overall for a 17.6 average) over the last five weeks is not a result of Brady’s age. Their struggles on offense are a result of losing extremely talented players, injuries to critical players, not having adequate replacements, and being too young at certain positions. Plus, their opponents have a better understanding of how to attack the Patriots. Obviously, the most significant loss, as well as the hardest to replace, is former tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk’s presence on the field helped in two areas that are currently slowing down the offense: The first is how they handle blitz pressure and the second is the strong side run game. Gronk was not the same in 2018 as he was during the 2014-16 seasons. He was still a force in the run game, sealing the end of the line and handling defensive linemen, but his speed, quickness, and explosiveness down the field in the passing game were not the same. Yet, even as his overall skills were declining, he was still a matchup nightmare. Whenever a team thought about sending pressure, they still had to rationalize dealing with someone who could cover Gronk one-on-one, and so many coordinators thought twice before sending pressure as a result. Gronk isolated away from the offensive formation, apart from the three-receiver set, alone with a smaller defensive back, or a slow linebacker, and Brady could throw the ball before the blitz. Now, with only Julian Edelman on the field as a significant threat, Brady does not have a security blanket to help offset pressure. And in the NFL, once you cannot handle pressure effectively, more pressure comes. Brady’s inability to handle pressure is similar to what occurs in the NBA when a low post player gets doubled as soon as the ball enters the post. The post player recognizes the double, then fires the ball to the open player standing near the three-point line. When that player is a reliable, consistent shooter, the doubles become less and less common. They still occur, just with less frequency. When that player is not a great shooter, or able to knock down the three, then teams double harder, more quickly and more often. Brady sees more blitzes than ever before because the offense lacks the players to make teams suffer when blitzing. Once a team proves they cannot handle something, they should expect more of that something to come their way. The run game, which last year was the strength of the Patriots, has become a weakness. Without Gronk, there is no tight end on the roster who can control the end of the line, or who can get movement off the ball against bigger defensive ends. The edge never gets sealed, which means the back never has a clear path to the strong side. Losing fullback James Develin also hinders the run game, in part because the Pats’ best runner, Sony Michel, is a “point of entry” back. That means he needs a lead blocker to clear out the hole and get him into the point of entry without having to shuffle or stutter. And while losing Gronk hurts, losing David Andrews, their starting center, is a killer. Andrews was the rock of the line; he made everyone around him better. His replacement, Ted Karras, was injured during the loss to the Texans, and journeyman James Ferentz started against the Chiefs. Ferentz is too small to handle big tackles. On Sunday, the Chiefs put their best lineman, Chris Jones over him, and all hell broke loose on Brady. No wonder Jones was so confident during the game when he was trash-talking Brady. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: This would have been Jimmy G's 6th year on the bench, with a likely 7th coming next year. Since they drafted Jimmy G, NE has appeared in 4 SBs and won 2. 2 of those appearances the last 2 seasons since they traded him away. As stated above, unless Brady (whos is still running a top 10 scoring and passing offense on a 10-3 team) retires this off season, Garappolo would be siting indefinitely on the bench. What would be the point of that? They would have had to move on 2-3 years ago. Yes Brady still had a few good years left but that's always the tough decision. 49ers had to make it with Montana when Young was waiting. Green Bay had to make it with Favre when Rodgers was waiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, billsrul120 said: Patriots are scoring 18.75 per game over their last 4. There offense if clearly trending down. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Gronk's retiring was a huge blow to their offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, I am the egg man said: Gronk's retiring was a huge blow to their offense. True but he missed 11 games and had only 6 total TDs and 72 catches combined in 2016 and 2018--two SB winning seasons. The problem is their O-line has gotten much worse over the year. Brady is getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Captain_Quint said: Can anyone post a GIF of Carlton Banks from Fresh Prince dancing? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 hours ago, dave mcbride said: I agree that the lack of weapons is an issue, but no qb I've seen this year has had fewer weapons to work with than Carson Wentz last night - in the second half, he was down to two roster-churn-level WRs plus 3 TEs. Then he went down to one WR when one of them got hurt. Yet he was still slinging and pushing the ball down the field with accuracy. The one caveat is that the Giants' defense is terrible. Soo many of the throws Wentz made last night were screens 1 yard behind the LoS. Philly runs more screens than any NFL team I saw maybe 3-5 balls all night travel over 15 - 20 yards Wentz was good but he threw over a dozen screens , the bills probably don't even have a dozen screens all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: True but he missed 11 games and had only 6 total TDs and 72 catches combined in 2016 and 2018--two SB winning seasons. The problem is their O-line has gotten much worse over the year. Brady is getting pounded. Be it 1 game a season or 16, when Gronkowski was on the field defenses were perplexed. Greatest TE ever.....so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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