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Shaq Lawson Option decision week. What do you do?


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1:  Pick it up?

2:  Let him play and then re-up him if it warrants it?

3:  Let him play and then say good luck with your career?

4:  Cut him/try to trade?

 

He's been a mixed bag but seemed to start to gel last year.  I still believe he's worth it and it's only 24.

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they will have to pay him 9 mil, right? that is what hughes is paid. There are some guys who make more than 9 mil on this list over whom I prefer Shaq. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/defensive-end/ some guys are much better. bills know him better than anyone. he is 24. if they think he has the health and character, then you do it. a breakout year and he will be well north of 9 mil.

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Pick it up. He's not a Hall of Famer, but he's a solid starter, he's healthy, and he brings some years of familiarity with the personnel and the game plan. That stuff isn't sexy, but it's really critical to maintaining a consistent team, and you would have to sign a bona fide stud to compensate for all that. Why risk a change at this point? 

Edited by skibum
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I don't think there is any way they pick up the option. I just don't think they love him as a player, and I as I said yesterday on the board somewhere, I don't think they want to tie up funds to guys who don't truly fit their vision. I like Shaq and I think there is still some upside there. But you really can't justify giving him 11-14 million on a 1 year deal. Picking up the option on Shaq and extending Jerry is going to tie up 25-30 million in cap for 2020. I think they use those funds and try to acquire a different group of defensive ends. I'd rather sign Clowney and give him 30 million up front than sign those two guys. 

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5 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...think the option is $10.2 million......

Exactly, you can do better in free agency with $10.2 million than Shaq.  Don't overvalue him just because he's home grown.

Edited by Woodman19
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You can't pick it up and pay him $10.5-11m. So you only pick it up if you are planning to extend him and if I am his agent my starting point for the extension is "I want more guaranteed than the 5th year option gives me." So you have to guarantee him minimum of $12m which over 4 years if $3m a year before you start on the unguaranteed element. That to me is already getting up there in terms of his value.

 

I like Shaq but I struggle to make an argument for retaining him on that basis. At the $2m a year he is making now, having him on the roster is a no brainer. At double that price it starts to look a luxury.

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https://frontofficenfl.com/2017/03/27/nfl-rookie-contracts-explained-fifth-year-option/

 

This is one of the better explanations I have seen.  The option for Shaq is the average of the 3rd to 25th highest players at his position.  It is only guaranteed in case of injury before March of next year (the start of the league year).  If he is on the roster for the start of the league year, its fully guaranteed.

 

When a team exercises the option, it becomes guaranteed for injury only. If the player is on the team’s roster at the start of the League Year in his option season, his salary becomes fully guaranteed for skill, cap and injury.

 

If they don't exercise it, they really don't want him because there is very little risk of exercising it.

 

 

Edited by JoeF
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11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Pick it up.  Solid in run defense, getting better on pass rush.  One more year will allow a definitive decision.

This is where I’m at. They have so much cap space next year and Hughes in a contract season. I’m picking up Shaq’s option because it raises the floor at the position. He’s already solid and is an ascending player. 

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I’m guessing his signing, or not, will have more to do with his relationship to The Process and whether management believe he’s all in. This is something that fans will never know. He’s certainly not performed so far to first round status but it might be the coaches (who didn’t pick him) see him on an upward trajectory.

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3 minutes ago, JoeF said:

https://frontofficenfl.com/2017/03/27/nfl-rookie-contracts-explained-fifth-year-option/

 

This is one of the better explanations I have heard.  The option for Shaq is the average of the 3rd to 25th highest players at his position.  It is only guaranteed in case of injury before March of next year (the start of the league year).  If he is on the roster for the start of the league year, its fully guaranteed.

 

When a team exercises the option, it becomes guaranteed for injury only. If the player is on the team’s roster at the start of the League Year in his option season, his salary becomes fully guaranteed for skill, cap and injury.

 

Exactly correct.  It’s what makes me think picking up his option is a possibility.  Just to cover our butt since Hughes is due to be a FA and to make sure the DE cupboard isn’t totally bare.  It can be rescinded anytime before the next league year starts as long as he’s healthy.  I’ve advocated for that recently, but the more I think about it the more I lean toward passing.  The reason is what many here have said: he’s easily replaceable. 

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What am I missing - why WOULDN'T he be extended (option picked up)? If there is no downside - he can always be released prior to his fifth year with no money lost - but there is upside, if he does put it all together this year and have a breakout year, we retain his rights for another year, to play, sign to a longer contract, or trade.

Edited by bourbonboy
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10 sacks in 3 years.  Gotta do more than set the edge in a defense where we rarely blitz.  I guess I'd pick it up since we're probably not going to be on the hook for the deal if he doesn't pick up his play.  

 

Kind of a gamble if he suffers an injury and can't pass a physical - but i like gambling so I'm in.  

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This really shouldn’t be a question.. Beane absolutely is picking up the option or extending him long term unless like someone else said they really don’t like him. He’s improved every year, and he is young enough that maybe he hasn’t peaked yet. Either way it’s zero risk really to keep him around. I’m in the crowd of sign him up for a team friendly 3-5 years extension while his value is low, just in case with the added talent on defense and offense he produces at a higher level which can skyrocket his price next year. 

Beane says he’ll use the money to lock up the current talent on the roster this is the first real kinda test along with jerry what they do. Beane seems to have a knack for getting players/agents to sign contracts which gives buffalo a lot of flexibility to get out of those deals with little penalty so I would not be against signing Lawson 3-5 years longer the way Beane structures contracts 

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I'm torn on this DE situation.  I feel the Bills either keep Lawson or extend Hughes.  Losing both at the same time is quite a predicament.  If all goes well this season, the Bills won't have a high draft pick next year.  The early mocks have 4 or so receivers with 1st Rd grades.  My guess is Bills want to draft a WR1 next year.  This would leave DE as mid 2nd pick maybe worse.  I'm leaning towards extending Hughes.  He's better at getting to the QB.

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1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

2

 

i don’t think he’s earned that 5th year money yet but I think he could earn a long term deal this year. If he doesn’t, take the comp pick and move on. 

Agreed.

 

It appeared as though he finally learned under this coaching group that the fact you were a first rounder means exactly jack-s**t. If he can continue with that mindset, then he is a piece worth keeping.

 

During the Rex years he saw a ‘leadership’ group that provided no leadership and he appeared to have followed suit. 

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1 hour ago, Seoulful Soul said:

1:  Pick it up?

2:  Let him play and then re-up him if it warrants it?

3:  Let him play and then say good luck with your career?

4:  Cut him/try to trade?

 

He's been a mixed bag but seemed to start to gel last year.  I still believe he's worth it and it's only 24.

 

It's a good question.  For others like me who had to look it up, it's $14.4M.  We can afford it.

 

Obviously the money-smart thing to do would be to try to sign him to a longer contract for less money.

 

If Beane wants to sell the idea of "pay for performance", he pretty much can't option him - he hasn't played like a $14M man.

On the other hand, he may be quietly shopping him to a team who would like him tied up for 2 years (recall we said we wouldn't have traded for Benjamin if the Panthers hadn't optioned him), so if the Bills did option him I wouldn't get all excited about it.

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$10m guaranteed only for injury is not a big price to pay to keep a guys rights for another year if he has the potential to be a 7-8 sack guy this year.  They gave Trent Murphy $10m in guarantees.  Not exercising his 5th year option would be pretty damning and I’m not sure how they don’t bring somebody else in this year if that’s Beane’s opinion of him.  

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He's had some big hits.  He's super motivated.  Oliver will create more opportunities for him.  Our defense was number 2 in the league with Shaq in the lineup.  Keep him.  His first year was a wash because of the injury.  Nobody got a lot of sacks on this team, but he had some big hits.  Keep him.

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We've had countless threads about this over the course of the last year. Even the last week or two.

 

I would not pick up his option. It would be easy to replace his production.

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8 minutes ago, Lurker said:

They have the cap space for this season, so why not.   

 

Next year he's gone and DE will probably be a round one priority like 3-T was this year...

The 5th year option is in 2020. He is signed through this year. That said, we have the cap space next year too. I just don’t think this regime operates that way. I don’t think it’s an easy decision for them because he hasn’t played up to that salary, yet. Paying it just to not have that hole to fill and not have to answer the tough questions is taking the easy way out. Not really their m.o. 

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