John Wawrow: "better chance of the Bills moving up for a player than moving back"

[thenorthremembers]

I wouldn't be against it but I also don't see where it happens right now.  Assuming Murray goes first, the Bills don't really have the ammo to move up to 2.  The Jets aren't trading with us.  Assuming Bosa and Allen go 2 and 3, who are you moving up to 4 to grab?

 

Ed Oliver is much more in the mold of the Defensive Tackles McDermott and Beane have drafted.   It will depend on how the draft plays out but I think Oliver will be there at 9 and I also feel like he is the target.  McDermott had a comment this past week about how he feels like you can do more with interior rush than edge rush.  Coincidentally interior rush is also the thing that messes with Brady the most.  With is why I think Oliver is the target.

[MrEpsYtown]

6 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

You would trade next year’s first to move up for an interior lineman?  Really?  Has that ever happened in the history of the league?  I don’t know about this.  I’d much rather trade down and pick up extra picks on day 2.  Too many needs.  They still have to build a modern offense.  An interior lineman just doesn’t seem like enough value.

 

I like the idea of the trade down and trade back up scenario as well.  But I just think Bosa is an elite talent, and Williams as well, but I'd strongly prefer Bosa because he's an edge player. Honestly, if I can do it without giving up 2020's number 1 I would do it in a heartbeat, but that doesn't seem possible. I was also thinking about the possibility of moving up to 5-6, maybe getting a discount from Mr. Gettleman and getting up to two from there, but I digress. It's going to come down to how motivated a team like SF or Tampa or whomever are to move down. If they are super motivated to move down, then perhaps they take less. 

[Chandler#81]

Whether jw is merely opining or not, I’ve been of the mindset the Bills will connive to have 2-1st round picks for a while now -maybe a 2nd 2nd rounder, while keeping our 3rd. I don’t see any team helping us move up from 9 as it will cost 2nds or 3rds. Too high a price. But getting back in later in the 1st is where I believe Beane is targeting. By ALL accounts, this Draft will be more impactful in the coming years than the norm. To @BADOLBILZ point, the plethora of FAs signed were necessary bandaids that must be dealt with in short order. Of course 10 picks won’t make the roster, but 6-7 may through prudence and fortune.

 

We have no idea how the Bills Board is shaping up, but our interior lines need new stalwarts for the long haul.

[FitzShowUsYourTitz]

13 hours ago, familykwi said:

Never heard of John Wawrow.  I hope he lacks creditability because we need to stop surrendering assets.

 

Never heard of John Wawrow!!   Best you not post again til you learn a thing or two or 10,000.  

 

I could very easily see this given Beans’s penchant for wheeling and dealing.   Plus we just added a ton of FA’s and have 10 pics.  Cant bring 99 guys to camp. 

[BringBackFergy]

6 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

Nah, I realize nothing is certain.  Pull up that thread though and read the derision, the disdain etc. Now look at those same people here falling over themselves to jump on the bandwagon.

#mvp

[Coach Tuesday]

43 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I like the idea of the trade down and trade back up scenario as well.  But I just think Bosa is an elite talent, and Williams as well, but I'd strongly prefer Bosa because he's an edge player. Honestly, if I can do it without giving up 2020's number 1 I would do it in a heartbeat, but that doesn't seem possible. I was also thinking about the possibility of moving up to 5-6, maybe getting a discount from Mr. Gettleman and getting up to two from there, but I digress. It's going to come down to how motivated a team like SF or Tampa or whomever are to move down. If they are super motivated to move down, then perhaps they take less. 

 

Bosa I sort of get - if you think he's a generational passrusher.  Even then, though, I don't think I'd pull the trigger.  Let's say he's as good as his brother - would you trade two #1 picks and a 2nd and change for San Diego's Bosa?  I wouldn't...  And I sure wouldn't trade all of that to move up a few spots for an interior lineman.  Again, BEST CASE scenario is the pick pans out and you owe $100+ million to an interior lineman in 4-5 years, and you still don't necessarily have a real offense... 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

12 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Quinnen Williams is a name to watch 

Yesssssssss I am glad to hear you say that! Do it do it

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, john wawrow said:

 

libel!

 

i’m a music snob.

 

beer? Blue and Guinness 

 

jw

I have news for you Mr. Wawwrowrrwworow.  Obsessing over bands that dress up as giant eyeballs and who can't carry a tune to the dumpster doesn't make you a music snob.  It's just weird.

 

That said, thanks for the football update.  Can you clarify as to whether the trade up is for the pipsqueak from UMass since he is on 92% of the mock drafts published on this board?

[Kmart128]

Not surprised after free agency. Before free agency I would have said no chance. We have to many holes to fill and the more picks the better. But we added a ton of players and don't see any glaring holes in this team. Sure I see positions we can improve at by adding elite level players but we have serviceable starters at each position. And only way to add elite talent and improve at a position is to trade up. 

[Mrbojanglezs]

12 hours ago, NY Nole said:

I know he comes to the board from time to time and I respect that - but IF he has any “source” on this it is simply a plant to get other teams thinking - the days of the Bills leaking anything are over. I wouldn’t put any stock in this.

 

I agree with this. Beane is playing 4D chess.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Whether jw is merely opining or not, I’ve been of the mindset the Bills will connive to have 2-1st round picks for a while now -maybe a 2nd 2nd rounder, while keeping our 3rd. I don’t see any team helping us move up from 9 as it will cost 2nds or 3rds. Too high a price. But getting back in later in the 1st is where I believe Beane is targeting. By ALL accounts, this Draft will be more impactful in the coming years than the norm. To @BADOLBILZ point, the plethora of FAs signed were necessary bandaids that must be dealt with in short order. Of course 10 picks won’t make the roster, but 6-7 may through prudence and fortune.

 

We have no idea how the Bills Board is shaping up, but our interior lines need new stalwarts for the long haul.

 

Thank you for saving me all that typing....and doing it better than I would have. They will have some guy they love (a la Edmunds) and I think they go get him after we pick at 9. Just my guess.....

 

 

 

.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Augie

[fansince88]

6 hours ago, john wawrow said:

 

i’m not at all surprised how much this has taken off and been to some degree twisted to satisfy some folks’ narratives and hopes.

 

the significance of my initial tweet is, in reality, more of a tidbit and not five-alarm fire that came up during a recent conversation.

 

again, as i’ve posted here an on the tweeter: 

 

i dont know what chance of a trade will happen. simply, a trade up is more likely (odds? dunno) than down in first round.

 

jw

Dont you wish you had some way to communicate with this John Wawrow guy (if that is his real name) and find out what he was really trying to say? So mysterious!! 

[Billsrhody]

12 minutes ago, Kmart128 said:

Not surprised after free agency. Before free agency I would have said no chance. We have to many holes to fill and the more picks the better. But we added a ton of players and don't see any glaring holes in this team. Sure I see positions we can improve at by adding elite level players but we have serviceable starters at each position. And only way to add elite talent and improve at a position is to trade up. 

 

The only way to add elite talent is to trade up? That’s a head scratcher. We’re almost as likely to stumble on an elite player at 9 as we are at 3. The draft is never a sure bet and every year some of the best players drafted come outside of the first 5 picks.

[eball]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I absolutely believe Ed Oliver is their guy. And if they have to move up a few spots to get him they will. 

 

I flipped by the Sirius XM NFL channel yesterday and thought I heard that Oliver apparently killed it at his pro day, including the interviews.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

14 hours ago, john wawrow said:

Not saying it's going to happen or not. And certainly don't have any idea of who the Bills might target to move up.

What I'm simply suggesting is Beane is more comfortable in going after a player he's targeting, than moving too far back and hoping a player he wants is still there.

And that very much applies to this year's draft.

Again, he could be very happy at staying at 9 and not moving based on his board and where the drop-off of talent begins.

 

This part is merely gut, as it wasn't discussed.

As someone noted, the Bills have 10 picks, and it would make sense to use some of those assets to work from a position of strength and landing better players or players the Bills have higher on their board.

 

They did that twice last year.

 

jw

 

 

 

 

John:  I always appreciate your work.  Thanks for the tip.  I'd love your opinion on the following:

1.  Who, in your opinion, would interest the Bills to trade up?

2.  In a scenario when we are trading up for a second first round pick, who would see as being potential targets assuming we went DL with the first?

 

Thanks!

 

[Kmart128]

14 minutes ago, Billsrhody said:

 

The only way to add elite talent is to trade up? That’s a head scratcher. We’re almost as likely to stumble on an elite player at 9 as we are at 3. The draft is never a sure bet and every year some of the best players drafted come outside of the first 5 picks.

 

Well sure you can but the elite level prospects are always above 9. I'm just saying we don't need all the draft picks we accumulated and could use them to trade up and have our choice of the litter.

[akm0404]

Stay put and make the pick at 9, and trade to make either a second pick mid to late day 1 or very early day 2. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Please no except on day 3. They will not draft 10 guys. They will package some late round picks to move up a round late.

Please don't waste a day 2 pick to move up a few spots. They have holes at OT, DT, OLB, and TE and you can throw in RB and DB as well. They need those first four in the first two days.

[BillyWhiteShows]

10 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

It'd be cool if you could explain WHY he has a higher bust potential than the other prospects.

 

Eddie is too small and a little short to play DT in the NFL.  He needs some work with technique.  Can not really rush the passer that great.

 

He was great in college because he’s a very good athlete.  I don’t think that will get as much in the NFL

[Augie]

33 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I flipped by the Sirius XM NFL channel yesterday and thought I heard that Oliver apparently killed it at his pro day, including the interviews.

 

Glad to hear the interviews went well (I think....but maybe not if goes before 9). The short shuttle stuff is just CRAZY. He would have been 3rd among RB’s at the combine? For a 280+lb DL? I don’t watch combine/pro day stuff much, but I’d like to see that (especially if we can get Rich Eisen superimposed, because that makes me laugh!). 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

16 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Methinks better chance of moving down in round one (from 9) and better chance of moving up in rounds two through seven, even moving back up into end of round one after the initial move down. 

I agree with you.  This draft has a lot of talent in rounds 2 and 3 that matches up with the long term needs of the team.  In first round , one of the elite d-linemen will be available at pick 9.  McD and Beane will not pass on this value.

[Jpsredemption]

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I dont agree with jp much.....but I do here

 

It costs too much to move up in the top 10 unless its for a QB.......I have NO problem moving back up into the 1st round because that will cost a lot less and 10 draft picks is a lot

It’s a unique day when we see eye to eye. I’m an advocate of premium picks - rounds 1 through 3. However we darn well know if you are moving up within the top 10 you are sacrificing premium picks whether it be this year or next. Analytics suggests taking as making cracks at the draft - taking into account the aforementioned premium picks - as possible. This regime, if they make this move, will prove again they are of the anti-analytics movement when it comes to the draft. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, familykwi said:

Never heard of John Wawrow.  I hope he lacks creditability because we need to stop surrendering assets.

 

Wawrow is an AP reporter who covers the Bills.  He is normally very reliable and will not put out anything that is not double-verified (per AP journalism standards) even when he knows the same rumors as the other guys.  Posts here sometimes - reasonably thick skin and level head under his snark.

 

That said, it should be noted that he isn't saying what the Bills will or won't do, just giving his take on probabilities.  You can have an 80% probability of making a left turn and a 20% probability of making a right turn based on what's known of your route patterns, and still turn right at the next corner.

 

 

[CNYfan]

14 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Gotta be honest if it’s a third and nine to go 2-3 spots and get devin white sign me up.  

 

If the Bills were to move up I get the sense it would be because Sean will fall in love with this guy, Devin White, and pound the table to go get him.

38 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Please no except on day 3. They will not draft 10 guys. They will package some late round picks to move up a round late.

Please don't waste a day 2 pick to move up a few spots. They have holes at OT, DT, OLB, and TE and you can throw in RB and DB as well. They need those first four in the first two days.

 

Either 4 on Day 1 and 2; or if only three, two in round 1, or two in round two

[mikemac2001]

9 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Wouldn’t having the draft in January make the offseason seem even longer ? Anyway, I don’t remember the draft not being in April. 

 

It use to be about ten days earlier but it’s also been pushed to May a few times 

 

And no April is fine just prefer it in the first couple weeks not the last week

[BillsBlue]

16 hours ago, Logic said:

Verrrrry interesting. In one of the comments below, someone asks him if thats just opinion or if he's actually heard anything. He replies that he doesn't really HAVE draft opinions. Take that for what you will...

i'm a ok with us trading up in the first and second round to grab 2 blue chip players we really want we are at the point where we can add 2 starters and be over the hump imo

[noacls]

1 hour ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Eddie is too small and a little short to play DT in the NFL.  He needs some work with technique.  Can not really rush the passer that great.

 

He was great in college because he’s a very good athlete.  I don’t think that will get as much in the NFL

Umm, he is an inch taller than Kyle Williams

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, john wawrow said:

 

That warrow guy's  a dope.

 

jw

 

FIFY

[Kaenon]

18 hours ago, Logic said:

Verrrrry interesting. In one of the comments below, someone asks him if thats just opinion or if he's actually heard anything. He replies that he doesn't really HAVE draft opinions. Take that for what you will...

It's got to be Oliver.

 

I said it before in another thread, we need to move up to get him. Somehow, he fell out of favor within the media outlets in lieu of other prospects, but I don't think that's the case for teams.

 

Oliver is too dominant to fall out of the top 5.

[mannc]

20 minutes ago, Kaenon said:

It's got to be Oliver.

 

I said it before in another thread, we need to move up to get him. Somehow, he fell out of favor within the media outlets in lieu of other prospects, but I don't think that's the case for teams.

 

Oliver is too dominant to fall out of the top 5.

Bookmark this:  The Bills will not be trading up from 9 to draft Ed Oliver.  And Oliver has not been “dominant” since he left high school. 3 sacks in the All-America Conference (or whatever minor league Houston plays in) is NOT dominance.

Edited March 30, 2019 by mannc

[TPS]

15 hours ago, Logic said:

Meh. They literally let a picture of their QB board from last year get onto Twitter. Ben Albright knew for like 4 months that the Bills were all in on Allen. They're not infallible.

Hmmm...so they somehow let a pic get posted on Twitter showing Allen #1--Did the picture get posted before or after they drafted Allen?  Obvious answer.

 

Albright I'm sure was told that the Bills contacted Denver about a trade, as everyone knew the Bills wanted to move up to grab a QB. And he probably heard or was fed they liked Allen, as he got info on Peterman the year before (Beane wasn't there).  He also had the Browns taking Darnold.  And guess who was pushing the Paradis to the Bills rumor? 

 

So, I'm not saying they're infallible, but this regime runs a much tighter ship than any in recent memory. I have one minor contact to the Bills, and last year he said they had things absolutely shut down compared to how things were in the past.  

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, TPS said:

Hmmm...so they somehow let a pic get posted on Twitter showing Allen #1--Did the picture get posted before or after they drafted Allen?  Obvious answer.

 

Albright I'm sure was told that the Bills contacted Denver about a trade, as everyone knew the Bills wanted to move up to grab a QB. And he probably heard or was fed they liked Allen, as he got info on Peterman the year before (Beane wasn't there).  He also had the Browns taking Darnold.  And guess who was pushing the Paradis to the Bills rumor? 

 

So, I'm not saying they're infallible, but this regime runs a much tighter ship than any in recent memory. I have one minor contact to the Bills, and last year he said they had things absolutely shut down compared to how things were in the past.  

In the case of the Allen leak, it was an intern that took a picture of the white board on which they had written their QB rankings. Said intern then put the photo on Twitter for the world to see, and he did it BEFORE the draft.

The best laid plans of mice and men...

[Delete This Account]

3 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

John:  I always appreciate your work.  Thanks for the tip.  I'd love your opinion on the following:

1.  Who, in your opinion, would interest the Bills to trade up?

2.  In a scenario when we are trading up for a second first round pick, who would see as being potential targets assuming we went DL with the first?

 

Thanks!

 

 

I didn’t talk names.

But I will note that moving up for D help rather moving back for O help prompted the comment.

 

jw

[TPS]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

In the case of the Allen leak, it was an intern that took a picture of the white board on which they had written their QB rankings. Said intern then put the photo on Twitter for the world to see, and he did it BEFORE the draft.

The best laid plans of mice and men...

Thanks. Would you have a link to a story?  I'd love to read more about it.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

I didn’t talk names.

But I will note that moving up for D help rather moving back for O help prompted the comment.

 

jw

 

Zesty tidbit.

[Reed83HOF]

14 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

I didn’t talk names.

But I will note that moving up for D help rather moving back for O help prompted the comment.

 

jw

 

[TPS]

11 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

I didn’t talk names.

But I will note that moving up for D help rather moving back for O help prompted the comment.

 

jw

The reason this does make a lot of sense (and I'm warming up to it) is they need a young, elite stud on the D-line going forward, and they feel this is the last time they will be in the top 10 for a long time.  Getting to 5 or 6 is doable.

Thanks for posting because the Board needed something substantive to distract us for awhile....

[White Linen]

18 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

I didn’t talk names.

But I will note that moving up for D help rather moving back for O help prompted the comment.

 

jw

 

You're not saying that because of probability and past actions because you rarely give opinions on the draft.  I'd be right because I solve riddles.  

[billykay]

19 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Methinks better chance of moving down in round one (from 9) and better chance of moving up in rounds two through seven, even moving back up into end of round one after the initial move down. 

We're thinking alike.

[Logic]

25 minutes ago, TPS said:

Thanks. Would you have a link to a story?  I'd love to read more about it.