John Wawrow: "better chance of the Bills moving up for a player than moving back"

[Nextmanup]

Unfortunately, Wawrow is probably right.

 

These guys are more apt to trade UP than DOWN.

 

[papazoid]

I could see TB at #5 moving down......that's about it.....not sure who or why the bills would go after at that spot

 

I think Buf will stay at #9 only if Hockenson is still there. otherwise trade down, no more than 5 spots....so many viable options there.

 

to me, Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler vs the 5th/6th best D-lineman will only become a solid starter

[PIZ]

2 minutes ago, papazoid said:

I could see TB at #5 moving down......that's about it.....not sure who or why the bills would go after at that spot

 

I think Buf will stay at #9 only if Hockenson is still there. otherwise trade down, no more than 5 spots....so many viable options there.

 

to me, Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler vs the 5th/6th best D-lineman will only become a solid starter

 

I agree with you.  Trade up with Tampa Bay or no trade up at all.  They already have the history with TB.  I think they would only trade up for Josh Allen or Nick Bosa.

 

 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

I think this makes sense just because we are running out of roster spots already and we have 7 picks on Day 3. Not everyone is making this roster.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

I think this makes sense just because we are running out of roster spots already and we have 7 picks on Day 3. Not everyone is making this roster.

 

I think those day 3 picks are more likely to be used as capital to move around the board on day 2 when I do expect the Bills to go up and down a fair bit to pick of specific targets.  My gut says that in round one they likely stay where they are but that is not certain.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think those day 3 picks are more likely to be used as capital to move around the board on day 2 when I do expect the Bills to go up and down a fair bit to pick of specific targets.  My gut says that in round one they likely stay where they are but that is not certain.

 

There will be movement for sure.

[DtownB2]

 

On 3/29/2019 at 4:16 PM, Reed83HOF said:

Yup. I just have a hunch it's Oliver. The other's will cost a bit more to move up from; for Oliver you need to go to maybe 6 or 7. McD was right there all in Oliver's drill yesterday & he has unreal athleticism, which is what they talk about with both Allen & Edmunds. 

 

Oliver could very well be there at 9, my guess is they trade up try and grab one of the elite TE's. If numerous QBs are taken round 1 then Fant could possibly drop to late first round/early second. Oliver and Fant would be two great additions.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

I could see TB at #5 moving down......that's about it.....not sure who or why the bills would go after at that spot

 

I think Buf will stay at #9 only if Hockenson is still there. otherwise trade down, no more than 5 spots....so many viable options there.

 

to me, Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler vs the 5th/6th best D-lineman will only become a solid starter

 

If Raiders go Devin White at #4 that might mean Quinnen Williams is there at #5

[Reed83HOF]

39 minutes ago, DtownB2 said:

 

 

Oliver could very well be there at 9, my guess is they trade up try and grab one of the elite TE's. If numerous QBs are taken round 1 then Fant could possibly drop to late first round/early second. Oliver and Fant would be two great additions.

 

Lots of reports about Oliver going at pick 8 to either Detroit or a team who trades with the Lions to snag him. Also, there seems to be a lot of chatter that teams on there early boards have Oliver rated higher than most analysts and they see him as one of the top talents in the draft. If we really swing for the fences and try to move to number 2, I would be shocked and stunned... 

[PIZ]

I really think Brian Burns or Montez Sweat could be the pick if they stay at 9.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Through his trade ups, it seems like Beane has created/used his surplus draft capital for the current year, not the future. It will be interesting to me to see if/when he trades up because he doesn't have all the additional picks this year so either that philosophy will change or we will get a clearer picture of what Beane values.  Given that we have a qb now, I think it's more likely we stand at 9 and take the best player for us. I also don't see us trading down because we need more talent now that we have filled the potholes in the roster  with some cold patch.

[Chuck Wagon]

17 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

If Raiders go Devin White at #4 that might mean Quinnen Williams is there at #5

 

 

Yep.  The Raiders, as always, are the wild card.  If they go someone like Haskins or White, it'll mean one of Bosa / Allen / Williams is available at 5.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Lots of reports about Oliver going at pick 8 to either Detroit or a team who trades with the Lions to snag him. Also, there seems to be a lot of chatter that teams on there early boards have Oliver rated higher than most analysts and they see him as one of the top talents in the draft. If we really swing for the fences and try to move to number 2, I would be shocked and stunned... 

 

I suspect teams do and I can certainly see him going earlier. I'm just not sure where. He is in play as high as 49ers at the 2nd pick for me. I have him as the #2 player on my board.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

I could see TB at #5 moving down......that's about it.....not sure who or why the bills would go after at that spot

 

I think Buf will stay at #9 only if Hockenson is still there. otherwise trade down, no more than 5 spots....so many viable options there.

 

to me, Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler vs the 5th/6th best D-lineman will only become a solid starter

Rumors tend to suggest 49ers & Jests are looking to move move down. You could possibly throw the Giants in there if they really are going to ride on Eli (dumb move imo)

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I suspect teams do and I can certainly see him going earlier. I'm just not sure where. He is in play as high as 49ers at the 2nd pick for me. I have him as the #2 player on my board.

 

I have seen that ATL is a team that may move up for him as that fills a big need for them. As I chew on this (Oliver & jw saying a move up is more likely than a trade down) our 2 options are to either:

 

1.) move way up for Bosa/Williams (my completely uneducated and fan-based guess)

2.) move up high enough to prevent us getting leap frogged for Oliver. If this is truly who we are targeting, we will have to give up some picks to get him. As the teams below us have to know that we would run to the podium with the card

 

Our FOs due diligence will be understanding what conditions will be required to move up to any spot, just like last year we presumably had a deal to swap with Denver if their guy wasn't there; I suspect we will have to do the same here. If a team is looking to trade down, we have to guard against it. if we truly feel that strong about the player. Oliver is the only one I could see sliding a bit that makes sense for this. 

[SouthNYfan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think those day 3 picks are more likely to be used as capital to move around the board on day 2 when I do expect the Bills to go up and down a fair bit to pick of specific targets.  My gut says that in round one they likely stay where they are but that is not certain.

 

Could also be used for a package if picks next year.

Say a team really wants Buffalo's 3rd, so they give them next year's third to swap with the bills and get their 4th this year (just using an example, not exact value approximation)

[Logic]

I keep hearing Beane talk about the "premium positions" in round 1.

One would tend to think edge rusher would trump 3T, but it certainly depends on how the board falls. They're not going to forego their #1 ranked 3T to take their #4 ranked edge rusher, for instance.

Is it April yet?

[N.Y. Orangeman]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

I keep hearing Beane talk about the "premium positions" in round 1.

One would tend to think edge rusher would trump 3T, but it certainly depends on how the board falls. They're not going to forego their #1 ranked 3T to take their #4 ranked edge rusher, for instance.

Is it April yet?

I agree.  I believe they'd love to be able to take and end over a tackle.  Personally,  I'd love to take Simmonds in the 2nd if he falls.

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

I agree.  I believe they'd love to be able to take and end over a tackle.  Personally,  I'd love to take Simmonds in the 2nd if he falls.

Yeah. Based on the prospects at both positions this year, I feel more confident that they can get a quality DT in rounds 2-3 than an edge rusher. There seems to be a pretty big dropoff after the "big 4" edge guys. There seems to be much LESS of a dropoff from the 1st to the 2nd tier of DTs. Maybe that's just my perception.

Either way, I think all the rumors we've heard about the Bills' interest in Clowney, Clark, and Ogbah, not to mention their being one of the final four suitors for Mack last year, lead me to believe that edge rusher is their number 1 desire at this point. It makes sense, too. They've already addressed the other three "premium positions" with Allen, Dawkins, and White. Edge Rusher is the last "fundamental building block" left on the old shopping list.

[BuffAlone]

21 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

I agree.  I believe they'd love to be able to take and end over a tackle.  Personally,  I'd love to take Simmonds in the 2nd if he falls.

Simmons in the 2nd would be great. But he'll likely be out the year with his ACL injury. Not sure we have the luxury of red shirting a player with the depth of our roster needing addressed. 

[Punching Bag]

18 minutes ago, Logic said:

Either way, I think all the rumors we've heard about the Bills' interest in Clowney, Clark, and Ogbah, not to mention their being one of the final four suitors for Mack last year, lead me to believe that edge rusher is their number 1 desire at this point. It makes sense, too. They've already addressed the other three "premium positions" with Allen, Dawkins, and White. Edge Rusher is the last "fundamental building block" left on the old shopping list.

 

I think the rumors are just the Bills doing due diligence to see who is available at right cost just like that Pittsburgh WR. I cannot remember his name but the Bills did not have a lot of interest once they heard his contract demands.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I keep hearing Beane talk about the "premium positions" in round 1.

One would tend to think edge rusher would trump 3T, but it certainly depends on how the board falls. They're not going to forego their #1 ranked 3T to take their #4 ranked edge rusher, for instance.

Is it April yet?

It sir is INDEED April!

[formerlyofCtown]

16 hours ago, Logic said:

Yeah. Based on the prospects at both positions this year, I feel more confident that they can get a quality DT in rounds 2-3 than an edge rusher. There seems to be a pretty big dropoff after the "big 4" edge guys. There seems to be much LESS of a dropoff from the 1st to the 2nd tier of DTs. Maybe that's just my perception.

Either way, I think all the rumors we've heard about the Bills' interest in Clowney, Clark, and Ogbah, not to mention their being one of the final four suitors for Mack last year, lead me to believe that edge rusher is their number 1 desire at this point. It makes sense, too. They've already addressed the other three "premium positions" with Allen, Dawkins, and White. Edge Rusher is the last "fundamental building block" left on the old shopping list.

We have a top flight edge rusher.  The best way to get pressure is up the middle.  They will take BPA which will likely be a DT but could be a DE.

Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, Star And Kwan Short are not DEs. This is what our D runs on.

Edited April 2, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Mickey]

On 3/29/2019 at 4:37 PM, familykwi said:

Trading for Bennett was completely different.  That roster did not have numerous holes.  We've filled some, but not all holes in FA.  I did blow a gasket at the "high end talent" Watkins trade.  I'm also not in love with the trades up for both Allen and Johnson last year.  Neither has proven their worth yet.  They may, and we'll never know what we would truly look like if we stayed put, but there are many metrics that indicate the price of trading up outweighs the act.  Many of the teams who consistently move up are bottom dwellers.  Many who move down are regularly competitive.

 

I've also noticed that many of the people who buy medicine are the sickest people and that many of the consistently healthy people buy the least amount of medicine. Therefore, ergo, buying medicine makes you sick. Q.E.D.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/30/2019 at 1:51 PM, john wawrow said:

 

i’m not at all surprised how much this has taken off and been to some degree twisted to satisfy some folks’ narratives and hopes.

 

the significance of my initial tweet is, in reality, more of a tidbit and not five-alarm fire that came up during a recent conversation.

 

again, as i’ve posted here an on the tweeter: 

 

i dont know what chance of a trade will happen. simply, a trade up is more likely (odds? dunno) than down in first round.

 

jw

 

 

 

That's how your original comment read to me.

 

Thanks much. For a tidbit, it's tasty.

[TPS]

18 hours ago, Logic said:

I keep hearing Beane talk about the "premium positions" in round 1.

One would tend to think edge rusher would trump 3T, but it certainly depends on how the board falls. They're not going to forego their #1 ranked 3T to take their #4 ranked edge rusher, for instance.

Is it April yet?

In a recent interview, McD talked about getting  pressure on the QB and mentioned he thought outside (DE) pressure was easier to counter than inside (DT). 

I think it was his PC from the nfl meetings?

[FearLess Price]

On 3/31/2019 at 11:25 AM, JaCrispy said:

I don’t know, man...that’s still a steep price to pay for a non QB that hasn’t proven they can play in the NFL yet...I guess I’m a little more conservative on the subject, as we’ve been trading up an awful lot the passed few years...I don’t think we are at the point in our team development where we are 1 player away.

 

 

I can agree we are not one player away. This regime trades up n down every year tho,I see them trading up if they see value. Beane is aggressive i like that. ER is a premium position and position of need.

1 minute ago, TPS said:

In a recent interview, McD talked about getting  pressure on the QB and mentioned he thought outside (DE) pressure was easier to counter than inside (DT). 

I think it was his PC from the nfl meetings?

 

Wow. We still need an er but maybe derm likes dts better

[mannc]

22 hours ago, papazoid said:

I could see TB at #5 moving down......that's about it.....not sure who or why the bills would go after at that spot

 

I think Buf will stay at #9 only if Hockenson is still there. otherwise trade down, no more than 5 spots....so many viable options there.

 

to me, Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler vs the 5th/6th best D-lineman will only become a solid starter

I could see SF trading down.  Are they really going to spend another high first round pick on the d-line, even if it’s Bosa???  It’s almost like Detroit drafting WRs during the Millen era.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

 

I've also noticed that many of the people who buy medicine are the sickest people and that many of the consistently healthy people buy the least amount of medicine. Therefore, ergo, buying medicine makes you sick. Q.E.D.

 

 

There are a ton of studies like Massey and Thaler, Brian Burke, Gertz, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, and many others on the draft and they all say much the same thing. I don't think you'll find as many reputable articles telling you that buying medicine makes you sick, much less so much of a consensus.

 

 

 

[Kaenon]

On 3/30/2019 at 10:47 AM, mannc said:

Bookmark this:  The Bills will not be trading up from 9 to draft Ed Oliver.  And Oliver has not been “dominant” since he left high school. 3 sacks in the All-America Conference (or whatever minor league Houston plays in) is NOT dominance.

I lived in Houston the last three years and watched him, he was pretty darn good

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, Kaenon said:

I lived in Houston the last three years and watched him, he was pretty darn good

I’m resigned to him being the Bills’ pick but I’ll be very unhappy if we trade up for the privilege.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

It sir is INDEED April!

 

Happy national "Joe in Winslow" appreciation month!

 

 

[Mickey]

56 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There are a ton of studies like Massey and Thaler, Brian Burke, Gertz, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, and many others on the draft and they all say much the same thing. I don't think you'll find as many reputable articles telling you that buying medicine makes you sick, much less so much of a consensus.

 

 

 

 

Studies that verify self fulfilling prophecies are not worth much no matter how often they are repeated. Good teams already have their aces at key positions and so can afford to trade down sacrificing quality for quantity. Struggling teams do not have those positions filled and the players that can fill them are more likely found at the top of the draft. What do these studies say about trade ups that landed teams players like Mahomes and Geoff? 

[Cripple Creek]

8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Happy national "Joe in Winslow" appreciation month!

 

 

An entire month?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

An entire month?

 

Why not?

 

[billsredneck1]

on the premise of beane trading up, i wouldn't say he wouldn't, but i doubt he will in this draft unless someone incredible falls close to us....round one

 

after the first round, i can see it and actually think trading those late rounders is a must.

 

however, i think the ace in the hole will be possibly moving shaq in a deal.  he got the 1st pick in the 3rd for tyrod, so i could see him moved to help us maybe, back into the first

or for a pick.

[Logic]

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We have a top flight edge rusher.  The best way to get pressure is up the middle.  They will take BPA which will likely be a DT but could be a DE.

Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, Star And Kwan Short are not DEs. This is what our D runs on.

Two things:

 

1) Jerry Hughes is on the wrong side of 30 and his contract is up after this year. 

2) Regardless of Jerry Hughes' production and regardless of whether or not he re-signs, the Bills were one of the 6 worst teams in the league last year in terms of sacking the quarterback.

I fully agree that the defense needs a quality starting 3T to operate at optimum strength. Still, I maintain that if you cornered Beane and McDermott and forced them to pick the position of greater importance, they'd still tell you "edge rusher". Just a guess. Either way, the Bills need one (and possibly two) of them.

3T, Edge, doesn't matter. Pick a quality defensive lineman and I'll be happy.

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

Two things:

 

1) Jerry Hughes is on the wrong side of 30 and his contract is up after this year. 

2) Regardless of Jerry Hughes' production and regardless of whether or not he re-signs, the Bills were one of the 6 worst teams in the league last year in terms of sacking the quarterback.

I fully agree that the defense needs a quality starting 3T to operate at optimum strength. Still, I maintain that if you cornered Beane and McDermott and forced them to pick the position of greater importance, they'd still tell you "edge rusher". Just a guess. Either way, the Bills need one (and possibly two) of them.

3T, Edge, doesn't matter. Pick a quality defensive lineman and I'll be happy.

The only other point I will make is that when you collapse the pocket up the middle, pressures start turning into sacks.

[Rockinon]

On 3/30/2019 at 12:51 AM, john wawrow said:

 

i’m not at all surprised how much this has taken off and been to some degree twisted to satisfy some folks’ narratives and hopes.

 

the significance of my initial tweet is, in reality, more of a tidbit and not five-alarm fire that came up during a recent conversation.

 

again, as i’ve posted here an on the tweeter: 

 

i dont know what chance of a trade will happen. simply, a trade up is more likely (odds? dunno) than down in first round.

 

jw

C'mon, John. You are enjoying the 5 alarm fires you're seeing here after your twitter post.....at least a little bit.  It's OK. You can admit it. I Know I would.

[Chandler#81]

This is quite the puzzle. At face value, take jw at his word that something’s abrewin’ @OBD for a 1st Round trade up, if a partner can be found. It’s the likely cost that astonishes me, to make it happen. 

 

Forget about the 7 picks from Rd. 4 on. They aren’t in play in this high stakes scenario. The Jets paid their 1st and both 2nd Rounders to do this last year for Darnold. It cost us 2 -3rds & 22 to move up to 16 for Edmunds.

 

Given the major holes at DT, OL, EDGE, RB & TE still glaring on the roster, I just can’t wrap my head around forfeiting our lone 2nd & 3rd in -by all accounts- a very rich draft for these positions. To say NOTHING of next years 1st!

 

By now, even our most casual fans can rattle off the likely top 8 -9 players. So WHO is so otherworldly in the top 6, that Beane Must Have for the team which will remove 2 other likely starters from contention? Who, by God, WHO??

 

yes, I’m day drinking..