Is Jerry Hughes worth a swap of ones with Tampa Bay?

[njbuff]

The Bucs had 22 sacks last season.

 

I know the Bills didn't light it up either.

 

But without getting into Symantecs, is this doable or not?

 

Thoughts?

[mileena]

I'd do it in a heartbeat. Hughes is worthless to us.

[K-9]

This has been predicted. Not sure it’s gonna be Hughes though.

[Estro]

Moving up from #12 to #7 is worth 300 points on the infamous draft value trade chart.  That 300 point value is equivalent to pick #60 in the draft, so a late 2nd rounder.  That might be what I'd consider a fair value for Hughes, a good player.  If he's not in the Bills long term plans, which after the signing of Trent Murphy, could be a possibility, I'd be okay with this trade.  Another way to inch up in the draft without having to touch a draft pick. 

 

Keep in mind, Jerry Hughes cap hit for '18 is $10.4M, and by trading him pre June 1st we'd incur a $5.8M dead cap hit.  So we'd save $4.6M against the cap in '18.........which might be enough cap space to wiggle in 1 more FA like Preston Brown or E.J. Gaines.

 

I think what I like the most about this scenario, though is getting up to #7 without having to touch any of our draft pick ammo, which we have a lot of.  That means the Bills could ship #7 & #22 to the Colts for picks #3 and their 4th rounder, #103.  That would leave the Bills with both of their 2nd rounders & both 3rd rounders (not to mention 2 4th rounders if we pulled off the trade I mentioned above) so they could start building this roster with some quality rooks.

 

Yea.......I guess I've talked myself into it....I really like the idea of shipping Hughes to the Bucs to move up from #12 to #7.  ? is would the Bucs make such a move?

 

It's fun to think about.

You know something we don't or are you just draft fantasizin'?

Edited March 16, 2018 by Estro

[Ol Dirty B]

I'm in the minority who like Hughes... but If I was told Tampa would do it, and that we could parlay Tampa's pick into the top 3... I'd do it. 

 

As Estro pointed out, with the chart, Hughes for a late 2nd... That's great value given the way trades work in the NFL when it comes to players. I feel like players always get undervalued and I've been impressed with how Beane has done with the two trades so far this off season. So if he can make it work, I wouldn't be one to criticize it. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

The Bucs had 22 sacks last season.

 

I know the Bills didn't light it up either.

 

But without getting into Symantecs, is this doable or not?

 

Thoughts?

 

Think of yourself as the GM of the Bucs and Gm Beane offered you Jerry Hughes along with a lesser draft pick, is a 29 year old, costing 10.4M to my team, who only had 44 tackles and 4 sacks last season and is going on 4 years removed from a double digit sack season worth it? The answer will always be .... no.... imo. 

[cba fan]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

The Bucs had 22 sacks last season.

 

I know the Bills didn't light it up either.

 

But without getting into Symantecs, is this doable or not?

 

Thoughts?

Maybe but only if it is #22 for #7........lol

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Rather trade Lawson, Hughes can at least get sacks in spot duty.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

I think we'd have to sweeten the deal a little, but if Tampa's willing to do it then heck yes.  If this happens fans have to keep in mind that within the last year we lost Watkins, Darby, Dareus, Glenn, Wood, Tyrod, and possibly Hughes along with Incognito.  We're in the rebuilding process despite last years playoff birth and we should be prepared for a sub par season next year. 

[8-8 Forever?]

getting rid of his contact alone makes it worthwhile

[Domdab99]

what good does trading up to 7 do us? And you know how many pressures on QB Hughes had last year? We need him. 

Edited March 16, 2018 by Domdab99

[Kelly the Dog]

Hughes is easily the most underrated player on the team. He's easily the only guy who plays 100% every play, including the great Kyle. He's equally good against the run and pass. He is the only player that goes sideline to sideline. He sometimes rushes the passer and then makes the tackle 8 yards downfield on a WR. He's the only player who consistently tries to both make the sack or tackle AND cause a turnover without sacrificing the tackle. There is not a player on either side of the ball that tries harder than Hughes from snap to whistle. It's not even close.

[GreggTX]

I can't help but laugh at the posts saying Hughes is no good. He is the best DL on our roster and it's not even close. I just hope Beane and McD are smarter than that. Still, if it's the only way to get one of the top 4 QB's, then I guess I could live with being dead last in sacks or close to it for another year. I also think having Murphy on the other end of the DL will help him a lot. Other teams won't be able to focus as much attention on him.

27 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Hughes is easily the most underrated player on the team. He's easily the only guy who plays 100% every play, including the great Kyle. He's equally good against the run and pass. He is the only player that goes sideline to sideline. He sometimes rushes the passer and then makes the tackle 8 yards downfield on a WR. He's the only player who consistently tries to both make the sack or tackle AND cause a turnover without sacrificing the tackle. There is not a player on either side of the ball that tries harder than Hughes from snap to whistle. It's not even close.

Good points. He's been really good vs the run as well. Lots of hustle.

Edited March 16, 2018 by GreggTX

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I think we'd have to sweeten the deal a little, but if Tampa's willing to do it then heck yes.  If this happens fans have to keep in mind that within the last year we lost Watkins, Darby, Dareus, Glenn, Wood, Tyrod, and possibly Hughes along with Incognito.  We're in the rebuilding process despite last years playoff birth and we should be prepared for a sub par season next year. 

We also replaced those folks with  Micah Hyde, Poyer,  Kelvin Benjamin who are quality starters in the NFL.  Not to speak of the draft capital this team has assembled.   If AJ can play at the level of Tyrod then there will be not much difference between last years team vs this year. 

 

Do remember from your list, our team DID make the playoff,  without  Watkins, Darby, and Dareus.

[JimKellyTryouts]

No, it's absolutely pointless to move up yet still stay behind the Broncos and Jets, who will more than likely be looking for a QB like us. 

[nucci]

3 hours ago, mileena said:

I'd do it in a heartbeat. Hughes is worthless to us.

How?

[mannc]

Despite an off-year, Hughes is still a borderline elite edge rusher, and those don’t grow on trees.  OTH, he’s getting old and he was not a Mc Beane guy. I’d be fine with it.  

[Thurman#1]

30 minutes ago, JimKellyTryouts said:

No, it's absolutely pointless to move up yet still stay behind the Broncos and Jets, who will more than likely be looking for a QB like us. 

 

 

Good point that it's strategically less valuable because we don't move ahead of any direct competitors.

 

But it would not be absolutely pointless. It would probably make our compensation package more desireable for the team we want to trade with.

 

Still, saying that, I think it's unlikely. Hughes will turn 30 in August. He'll probably have another 2 to 3 good years. And he's our only real pass rush threat right now other than Murphy if he turns out well. That's not what we want to be trading away unless we absolutely had to. He's a good player, he fits the scheme and we would only save $1.5 mill against the cap this year and next year is his last contract year so we wouldn't save a lot there either. He's worth what we pay him.

 

I seriously doubt it.

[BillnutinHouston]

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

what good does trading up to 7 do us? And you know how many pressures on QB Hughes had last year? We need him. 

 

As Estro has said, you do this with the intention of packaging that pick with #22 to get to #3.

[Wayne Cubed]

I get the idea of moving up one more time to be in a better position to get into the top 5 but I think this is a bit of a trade happy idea. You don't trade away a piece and create another hole without being able to replace it. The Bills traded Glenn because they have Dawkins to replace him. The Bills traded away Taylor because they are going to draft his replacement with the first pick.

 

Both the FA market and the draft are not rich with DE talent like Hughes. Also, a DE combo of Lawson and Murphy, who is coming of an ACL tear, is less than desirable and is going to scare no team. The Bills have no idea what they'll get from Murphy and we know Lawson doesn't give the Bills much in terms of QB pressure.

[cage]

1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Hughes is easily the most underrated player on the team. He's easily the only guy who plays 100% every play, including the great Kyle. He's equally good against the run and pass. He is the only player that goes sideline to sideline. He sometimes rushes the passer and then makes the tackle 8 yards downfield on a WR. He's the only player who consistently tries to both make the sack or tackle AND cause a turnover without sacrificing the tackle. There is not a player on either side of the ball that tries harder than Hughes from snap to whistle. It's not even close.

 

Anyone who follows Joe Buscaglia's weekly film study articles see that Hughes was the highest ranked player all year long.  Our best player.  Maddening when people just look at the top line tackle and sack numbers and then dismissively declare we should dump him.

 

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/2017-buffalo-bills-all-22-in-review-defensive-ends

 

[Bing Bong]

I love Hughes, but don't even see that as remotely possible. Would take a trade like that in a heartbeat

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Make it Lawson and you have a deal

[Estro]

1 hour ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

As Estro has said, you do this with the intention of packaging that pick with #22 to get to #3.

Precisely.  #22 and #7 is actually a little more valuable than the 3rd pick, so maybe the Colts give you their 4th or 5th back.

 

The point being the Bills wouldn't have to touch any picks next year, or any of their multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks this yr.  That's 4 picks in rounds 2 and 3 to find quality starters on CHEAP 4 yr rookie deals.  This is how smart teams build rosters.

Edited March 16, 2018 by Estro

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Rather trade Lawson, Hughes can at least get sacks in spot duty.

 

 

This is where I’m at as well. The Bills pass rush is not good either. You can’t trade the one guy that has proven he can consistently rush the passer. Trade Shaq instead

[jr1]

I don't see anyone wanting  Hughes' salary and him being a flag magnet

[Magox]

You guys have gone mad.  Hughes may not be getting the sacks but he is still getting lots of pressures and is a terror against the run.

 

Our pass rush has been terrible and reading him makes it worse.  

 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

5 hours ago, mileena said:

I'd do it in a heartbeat. Hughes is worthless to us.

??‍♂️

[NastyNateSoldiers]

5 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bucs had 22 sacks last season.

 

I know the Bills didn't light it up either.

 

But without getting into Symantecs, is this doable or not?

 

Thoughts?

Might be Shaq and a 3rd instead. 

5 hours ago, Estro said:

Moving up from #12 to #7 is worth 300 points on the infamous draft value trade chart.  That 300 point value is equivalent to pick #60 in the draft, so a late 2nd rounder.  That might be what I'd consider a fair value for Hughes, a good player.  If he's not in the Bills long term plans, which after the signing of Trent Murphy, could be a possibility, I'd be okay with this trade.  Another way to inch up in the draft without having to touch a draft pick. 

 

Keep in mind, Jerry Hughes cap hit for '18 is $10.4M, and by trading him pre June 1st we'd incur a $5.8M dead cap hit.  So we'd save $4.6M against the cap in '18.........which might be enough cap space to wiggle in 1 more FA like Preston Brown or E.J. Gaines.

 

I think what I like the most about this scenario, though is getting up to #7 without having to touch any of our draft pick ammo, which we have a lot of.  That means the Bills could ship #7 & #22 to the Colts for picks #3 and their 4th rounder, #103.  That would leave the Bills with both of their 2nd rounders & both 3rd rounders (not to mention 2 4th rounders if we pulled off the trade I mentioned above) so they could start building this roster with some quality rooks.

 

Yea.......I guess I've talked myself into it....I really like the idea of shipping Hughes to the Bucs to move up from #12 to #7.  ? is would the Bucs make such a move?

 

It's fun to think about.

You know something we don't or are you just draft fantasizin'?

I like this plan but i can see the Bills just staying put at #7 in this case. There's a good chance one of the top 4QBs makes it to 7 . 

 

#1Browns- Darnold 

#2 Giants- Barkley 

#3 Colts- Chubb 

#4 Browns- Fitzpatrick 

#5 Broncos- Allen 

#6 Jets- Rosen

#7 Bills- Baker

 

If this happens that would be great because we keep the majority of our pks and still land my top QB Baker.

[nucci]

42 minutes ago, jr1 said:

I don't see anyone wanting  Hughes' salary and him being a flag magnet

Please list his penalties that show this

[Green Lightning]

Why all the Hughes hate? He played with garbage on the line last year. The guy's going to have a great rebound season. He's the only pure pass-rusher we have,  hopefully Trent can pick up some of the slack. Stay the course we need him.

[blacklabel]

Hughes and Lawson aren't going anywhere. McBeane want as much DE depth as possible. Vic Carucci reported earlier this week that the recent DE signings by Buffalo have no implications on 55 & 90, both players are firmly in their plans for 2018. 

[billsfan89]

5 hours ago, Estro said:

Precisely.  #22 and #7 is actually a little more valuable than the 3rd pick, so maybe the Colts give you their 4th or 5th back.

 

The point being the Bills wouldn't have to touch any picks next year, or any of their multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks this yr.  That's 4 picks in rounds 2 and 3 to find quality starters on CHEAP 4 yr rookie deals.  This is how smart teams build rosters.

 

QB's throw the draft value chart overboard. Even if the Bills traded Lawson or Hughes with Tampa to slide up to pick 7 it will take way more than 7 and 22 to get up to number 3 or 2. RGIII cost the Skins a 2nd rounder plus 2 future firsts to go from 6 to 2. That's way out of line with the draft value chart. Goff cost the Rams pick 15, 2 second round picks, a third-round pick, and a 1st and 3rd in the draft the year after. Wentz cost the Eagles pick 13, a 3rd and 4th round pick, the year after 1st rounder and the year after 2nd rounder. 

 

Trading up isn't about matching up points on a chart when it comes to QB's. QB is the most valuable position in the sport and if you want to trade up to get one it is going to cost you more because you aren't bidding against a draft value chart you are bidding against what other teams are offering. And if Rosen goes 1st overall and Barkley goes 2nd you bet the Colts are going to get a ton of teams like Denver, The Jets, and Arizona offering big packages of picks to try and land that spot. The Bills can offer more in this draft than any other those teams and offer the same future picks. The Bills are in a good position to get their QB but it won't be cheap. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

These stats are kinda confusing... https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

 

Looks like they ran at him less than the other side, and ran more effectively to the other side as well.  He also seems to still generate pressure whether they were sacks or not.

[BillsFan130]

I don’t think so personally.

 

Hes turning 30 or 31?

 

He is regressing in terms of getting pressure on the QB.

 

Has a descent size cap hit.

 

And is a head case.

 

If I was Tampa I wouldn’t do it

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, billsfan11 said:

I don’t think so personally.

 

Hes turning 30 or 31?

 

He is regressing in terms of getting pressure on the QB.

 

Has a descent size cap hit.

 

And is a head case.

 

If I was Tampa I wouldn’t do it

 

Yeah - I think we brought in a bunch of young guys to hopefully take the next step.  I think he'll still be a starter though.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is where I’m at as well. The Bills pass rush is not good either. You can’t trade the one guy that has proven he can consistently rush the passer. Trade Shaq instead

 

If they can get second round value for Shaq........you absolutely gotta'.

 

Overcoming that first step and turning into someone worth committing to that fifth year option next offseason and/or extending seems highly unlikely from 2 years of tape.

 

Run stopping 4-3 DE market is usually PURDY CHEAP in FA.

 

He could actually improve and only be worth a 6th or 7th rounder in trade next season because of the contract status.........at least he may still have some original draft day shine left on him at the moment.    I don't think TB would bite but let's hope so.

[buffaloboyinATL]

9 hours ago, cba fan said:

Maybe but only if it is #22 for #7........lol

Now THAT would be genius.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

Hughes and Lawson aren't going anywhere. McBeane want as much DE depth as possible. Vic Carucci reported earlier this week that the recent DE signings by Buffalo have no implications on 55 & 90, both players are firmly in their plans for 2018. 

 

There is no benefit whatsoever to them implying they may want to move on from them.     That vote of confidence is equal to the vote of confidence for TT.   Could be,  but there is reason to believe otherwise.   Shaq was reportedly in McD doghouse at some point last season and failed to be available down the stretch.

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Yeah - I think we brought in a bunch of young guys to hopefully take the next step.  I think he'll still be a starter though.

I agree. Like he’s still a descent player. I just don’t think he has much value so it would probably just be better if the Bills kept him