Draft night I can see this coming

[The Firebaugh Kid]

And Diggs

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

In my opinion, that would be a bad pick.  Go find video of Franklin falling twice running routes against air at the combine and watch him struggle through the “gauntlet” drill.  He is also only 175lbs.  Now, I acknowledge that doesn’t erase what he accomplished last year, but combined that would leave him off my list of options for round 1.  Maybe at 60, I’d take him.

I hope you’re right, but I think you’re underestimating how much they will miss their rotational guys (Floyd, Phillips, Settle, and I think I’m forgetting someone.)

Floyd gets replaced in the second round. He was good but faded and was non existent after Halloween.  Settle is terrible. Phillips was a nonfactor. They will find another DT body at some point - draft or scrap heap. Can't be much worse than Settle and Phillips were

[Mr. WEO]

yes, every other GM covets Beane's day 3 picks.....moving up to #4!!!

[Matt_In_NH]

It will involve next years one..........plus some other big capital

[blacklabel]

At most I would assume they'd do a very small move, like how they leapfrogged Dallas last year for Kincaid. So maybe they jump from 28 to 26, maybe 24, somewhere in that range. But there's no way they're climbing into the top ten. 

 

Got a lot of spots to fill this season so it's a good year to have eleven picks.  I might be wrong but I believe it's the largest number of picks they've had in the entire McBeane Era. 

[wppete]

Would love that to happen but it's unlikely. I can see Beane trading up 5-7 spots to go after Brian Thomas Jr. if he falls in the 20s. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

i could see pennix there at 28 and seattle calling us to trade for 28. give us this years second, third, and next years 1st and a conditional.... i'd bite in a heartbeat.

 

doe anyone realize how under the cap we are for 2025?!

 

 

I can’t. Beyond it being a massive overpay on Seattle’s part they don’t even have a second round pick this season. 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

1) This isn't happening

 

2) People seem to have zero clue of the draft value chart when it comes to our Day 3 picks.  The only way we're materially moving up in Round 1 of this Draft is by packaging 28 and next years RD1..  We only have one Day 2 pick and our RD4's can move us up a couple spots each, at most. 

 

 

Even next year’s first round pick has limited value because teams assume that it will be near the end of the first round.

[TheFunPolice]

we need to be more explosive= draft DL in rounds 1 and 2. 

 

Deep WR draft and Diggs was a late round pick will be the company line 

 

We're at the place with WR that we were at QB during the drought. 

 

All we need is Buddy Nix to come back to give his patronizing "golly gee, we'd love to have 3-4 picks in each round so we could take a WR" schtick. Then he could explain how each team only gets 1 pick per round, unless they make a trade. 

Edited March 14 by TheFunPolice

[SoCal Deek]

How is this a thread? 🙄

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Special K said:

I could see them moving up a few spots to land Thomas Jr., but if they stay put, they should have at least 2 of the following available:

 

Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman

 

No need to move up in a stacked WR class, IMO.

But once it gets 4 to 5 WRs off the board the FO may have a specific target.  A large preference.  For example you're putting Franklin and Coleman in the same category as A Mitchell - I don't see it that way.

 

If 5 WRs are off the board and the FO has A Mitchell as the last of the top tier guys, I can see a small move up to ensure grabbing him.  Or similarly if A Mitchell is also gone, they may then feel the urge to move up a little for X Legette (who for some reason you don't have in that class).

[KingBoots8]

There are so many quality WRs in the draft this year, and while the top-3 might be better overall, the cost to move up high enough to get them far outweighs the “drop” in talent to the 2nd level guys we will likely be able to get sitting still at 28.

 

if it gets to pick 20 and the guy you absolutely must have is there, ok, now we can consider moving some lower picks to advance, but even that is going to be expensive if you get into a bidding war. If there were only 3 guys you wanted round 1 I’d consider it (maybe), but you’d be insane to do it this year. Guys like Mitchell, Coleman, and McConkey are close enough in skill that you walk away happy with whomever is available at your pick, and you don’t move mountains to get them.

[PBF81]

The expectations for this Draft appear to be a bit high by some.  

 

We have two picks in the first 3-3/4 rounds.  The 28th and 60th.  

 

After that we don't pick again until late in the 4th at 128th.  

 

Those first two are really going to have to count this year.  

 

No one's going to trade us a bunch of day-3 picks for anything good.  

 

 

[Charles Romes]

I could see them giving up a second to move into the late teens for Mitchell or Thomas.  And I’d be happy. 

[BeastMaster]

If MHJ makes it to the Giants at six, I'm offering this year's first and second, along with next year's first and third to try and trade up

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

And then you wake up from your dream!!

 

If the Bills traded every pick they have this year, they wouldn't get even close to the #8 pick.  If they added in next years 2nd round they may get close to #8 along with every other pick this year.

 

The Bills can trade a boatload of their draft picks to move up from the 5th to maybe the top half of the 4th.

 

Maybe you should some research before posting.

 

If Nabers is there I think a team with a ton of holes that need more picks like the Giants or Bears would make the deal with us. 

 

For #6 could probably go:

2024 R1 (#28)

2024 R4 (#128)

2024 R5 (#144)

2024 R6 (#189)

 

2025 R1 (TBD)

2025 R3 (TBD)

2025 R4 (TBD)

 

Less obviously if it's for #9.

 

That leaves us with minimum 7 picks remaining this year (remember only 3 of our picks last year made the roster plus Shorter on "IR") plus 6 picks next year when our comp picks hit. And Josh gets a Ferrari on a rookie deal for the next five years. Everyone wins.

Edited March 14 by MiracleAtRich1393

[skibum]

 Beane may move up a few picks to make sure he gets his guy, but his guy is not going to be a top-10 pick because the talent is deep this year. Plus, why does everyone assume we're taking a WR in round 1?  

[OldTimer1960]

38 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

At most I would assume they'd do a very small move, like how they leapfrogged Dallas last year for Kincaid. So maybe they jump from 28 to 26, maybe 24, somewhere in that range. But there's no way they're climbing into the top ten. 

 

Got a lot of spots to fill this season so it's a good year to have eleven picks.  I might be wrong but I believe it's the largest number of picks they've had in the entire McBeane Era. 

But, in spite of the volume of picks, it isn’t a lot of “draft capital” those late 4ths and 5ths are not worth a lot in trades and, while Beane has found some pretty good players late, they won’t fix all the holes in the D with them, either.  
 

I think trade down early and trade up strategically in 4th, 5th, 6th if there are a few guys left that they like.

29 minutes ago, mannc said:

Even next year’s first round pick has limited value because teams assume that it will be near the end of the first round.

Exactly- it’s worth about a late 2nd this year.

[PBF81]

22 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

I could see them giving up a second to move into the late teens for Mitchell or Thomas.  And I’d be happy. 

 

That'd be very risky however.  Trading out 28th and 60th for a single WR.  That would essentially relegate our draft after that to a bunch of day-3 picks.  

 

There should be a decent WR, perhaps one that in other years would have gone earlier, availalble at 28th.  Then keep our 60th for an OT or C.   

 

Someone here suggested Zach Frazier from WVU at C.  He seems as if he'd be a great pick at 60th in a spot of need.  C/G.  

 

Not sure how we don't focus on the offense in rounds 1/2.  

 

 

[starrymessenger]

We are out of contention for one of the top three. The only guys I would consider moving up for would be Thomas or Mitchell and even then only maybe max 4 spots and only if it was thought to be necessary based on how the board had come to look at the time. If only Coleman or Leggett or Franklin were left amongst premier X receiver prospects I might be inclined to trade down and take one in the second (Coleman would be my preference in that case).. 
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Thomas or Mirchell proved to be as good pros as the top three.

[london_bills]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Somewhere between picks 4-8 Roger walks up to the microphone and announces:  We have a trade.  Buffalo has traded (a small boatload of picks) to (team to be named) and is now on the clock.  And we get one of the top 3 rated WRs in the draft.

 

Beane and McD have said they need to get more explosive.  And they’ll do that by getting more explosive with their moves to draft an explosive WR for Josh.

The reason I think this could be true is Beane is going to look to make solid the offensive pieces round Allen by drafting a WR and C high. Maybe with an eye on the fact diggs could be traded after next season but I don't know the numbers

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Somewhere between picks 4-8 Roger walks up to the microphone and announces:  We have a trade.  Buffalo has traded (a small boatload of picks) to (team to be named) and is now on the clock.  And we get one of the top 3 rated WRs in the draft.

 

Beane and McD have said they need to get more explosive.  And they’ll do that by getting more explosive with their moves to draft an explosive WR for Josh.

This isn't madden.

[DCofNC]

Far more likely to trade down imo, though Beane does seem to force picks, not let it come to him, so a small move up could happen.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

 

If Nabers is there I think a team with a ton of holes that need more picks like the Giants or Bears would make the deal with us. 

 

For #6 could probably go:

2024 R1 (#28)

2024 R4 (#128)

2024 R5 (#144)

2024 R6 (#189)

 

2025 R1 (TBD)

2025 R3 (TBD)

2025 R4 (TBD)

 

Less obviously if it's for #9.

 

That leaves us with minimum 7 picks remaining this year (remember only 3 of our picks last year made the roster plus Shorter on "IR") plus 6 picks next year when our comp picks hit. And Josh gets a Ferrari on a rookie deal for the next five years. Everyone wins.

 

Yes only 3 plus Shorter made it, but the team only had 6 picks.  Plus all the top picks made the team.  Now you're leaving us with only a #1 and #2 this year and a #2 next year in the first 4 rounds, the rounds that most of the best players are chosen.    Actually they'd have one extra pick left at the bottom of the 4th.  Add to that the Bills have more roster holes this year than last to fill.

 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

That'd be very risky however.  Trading out 28th and 60th for a single WR.  That would essentially relegate our draft after that to a bunch of day-3 picks.  

 

There should be a decent WR, perhaps one that in other years would have gone earlier, availalble at 28th.  Then keep our 60th for an OT or C.   

 

Someone here suggested Zach Frazier from WVU at C.  He seems as if he'd be a great pick at 60th in a spot of need.  C/G.  

 

Not sure how we don't focus on the offense in rounds 1/2.  

 

 

 

Agree I'd rather see them trade down to maybe around 35 and pick up a late 3rd or early 4th..

[nosejob]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

The expectations for this Draft appear to be a bit high by some.  

 

We have two picks in the first 3-3/4 rounds.  The 28th and 60th.  

 

After that we don't pick again until late in the 4th at 128th.  

 

Those first two are really going to have to count this year.  

 

No one's going to trade us a bunch of day-3 picks for anything good.  

 

 

This is why I'd trade next years 1st to the packers for say 41 and 88. I'd throw back their 5th if need be.  We need to manufacture another 2nd rd.pick and a 3rd as well while keeping our own spots.

 

The point being there's a few teams with more than one pick in the 2nd and 3rd. Be it next years 1st or a trade back, it's ball out time for BB.

 

I would stand pat. I can't see trading up. It's just too much. We should be able to get Legette or Ladd.   Maybe Byron Murphy makes it here.

Edited March 14 by nosejob

[BigDingus]

This is not the year to do this.

 

I know, I know, we all want to win NOW. But we took our shot with Von Miller & co., and fans seem unhappy or unwilling to accept the reality of our situation.

 

There are too many holes, and we've got too much money tied up in existing contracts. Obviously people are learning that "the cap isn't real," wasn't exactly true.

 

So as we watch the Bills scrape the bottom of the FA barrel & high profile players go elsewhere, people are understandably looking ahead to the draft. Sure, the Bills are likely to trade up at various points in the draft, but only in the later rounds.

 

A bunch of 4th, 5th & 6th round picks are only going to help you move around so much, mainly within the same round. With the Bills only having a single pick on day 1 & day 2, they're more likely to trade back than move up imo. The team also is trying to get significantly younger, so they'll need as many of these picks as they can get.

 

I could see them being more aggressive next year, but this off-season will be less splashy... draft included.

[frostbitmic]

The only thing I'd bet big money on in this draft is that the Bills won't draft at #28. Beane doesn't have the temperament to sit on his hands waiting that long to do something.

[muppy]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Somewhere between picks 4-8 Roger walks up to the microphone and announces:  We have a trade.  Buffalo has traded (a small boatload of picks) to (team to be named) and is now on the clock.  And we get one of the top 3 rated WRs in the draft.

 

Beane and McD have said they need to get more explosive.  And they’ll do that by getting more explosive with their moves to draft an explosive WR for Josh.

I happen to believe that Beane will have a draft board that is set. And as is true with all NFL drafts they will weigh the costs vs benefits ratio of making such a pick. When and if need be trade up OR Down. 

 

It is at times like those that you MUST have faith in your draft scout assessments. And stick with your board. 

 

I don't think Beane will overspend just to overspend. It will be in view of all the variables that invariably come up on draft night/day.

 

Have faith in Beane to do what is right. What other choice to we really have as diehards.  Last Year Kincaid BOOM.

 

If he drafts a player as good as he this year I'll be dancing in the streets. Maybe even at a super bowl parade 🙂

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yes only 3 plus Shorter made it, but the team only had 6 picks.  Plus all the top picks made the team.  Now you're leaving us with only a #1 and #2 this year and a #2 next year in the first 4 rounds, the rounds that most of the best players are chosen.    Actually they'd have one extra pick left at the bottom of the 4th.  Add to that the Bills have more roster holes this year than last to fill.

 

 

 

Agree I'd rather see them trade down to maybe around 35 and pick up a late 3rd or early 4th..

 

Agree, I'd rather see that than a trade up for sure.  Who knows what they'll do, there's plenty of time, but with only two picks in nearly the first four rounds, they'd better either hit on a Jefferson type ringer or make the most of the two, or three (if they trade-down) picks that they have in the first three rounds.  

 

We need elite players, not merely average to above-average starters.  It's time for Beane to earn some of that contract.  

 

Either way, how on earth can they possibly avoid drafting a WR barring some monumental trade or the like.  

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

This is why I'd trade next years 1st to the packers for say 41 and 88. I'd throw back their 5th if need be.  We need to manufacture another 2nd rd.pick and a 3rd as well while keeping our own spots.

 

The point being there's a few teams with more than one pick in the 2nd and 3rd. Be it next years 1st or a trade back, it's ball out time for BB.

 

I would stand pat. I can't see trading up. It's just too much. We should be able to get Legette or Ladd.   Maybe Byron Murphy makes it here.

 

Yeah, they've gotta see who's there first though.  Also, that's if the Packers or another team would make a trade like that.  I'm not one of those that follows what everyone is doing, so I have no idea outside of our actual moves.  

 

The first big decision will be seeing which WRs go off the board as our 28th nears.  Of the teams immediately ahead of us, it seems that only Arizona, at 27th, is the only team in desperate need of a WR as well.  

 

We'll see what happens.  This time of year is the worst, we have no idea what's really going on, all we can do is hope for the best.  6 more weeks.  LOL  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

Today might have just changed my mind.  

[KingBoots8]

After today, here’s what I see:

 

1. While WR should still be priority #1, Samuel is a good signing and makes it easier for the Bills to focus on BPA in the draft in those first 2 rounds especially. Depending how they grade out, I can see a lot of real possibilities 

 

2. Safety is still very thin for us, and this is a deeper draft for Safeties. I expect to spend possibly 2 later picks for young/affordable guys unless we trade a bunch away.

 

3. If WR go on a run and we don’t have any with a round 1 grade left, expect a trade back… unless:

 

4. Cooper DeJean somehow sliding to 28 could make it very hard to pass up. He’d likely be BPA and a position of need if he slides. McD would be pounding his McMeat if he could draft this guy. It’s not likely, but not impossible. 

 

5. That being said, my draft priorities remain unchanged, and in this order: WR, DT, Edge, S, IOL, CB. 

 

 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

5 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Down is the play, in my opinion.  Unless they pull a miracle in FA, the defense is going to take a step back this year - if Miller doesn’t return to some form close to what he was for the Bills before his injury, defense could be pretty bad.  I would really need to be sure of the guy I want to trade next year’s 1st because it could be considerably higher than 28 next year.

I'm not as sure about the defense going downhill as many are.  Poyer and Hyde were not great all season.  Floyd is really the only significant contributor that is gone and even he faded down the stretch.  A starting safety and one more pass rusher will be critical. Adding a couple of rotational d-tackles will be necessary but are available in free agency or the draft. Trading down will definitely be an option but it may happen in the second round.  I also expect Beane to use the extra day three picks to move.  I don't picture Beane actually drafting 11 players.  I really hope that there is a run on first round QB's, maybe 5 or 6.  This will drive talent further down the boards and give Beane great options (including trading down).

[Neo]

I was an occasional lurker in 2014.  Anybody else remember the 17 month debate over whether or not we traded one or two first round picks for Watkins?

 

”We traded two first round picks!”
 

”Wrong, we traded one and switched the other one!”

 

”No, we sent this year’s first AND next year’s, that’s two.”

 

”But we only gave up one!”

 

”No, TWO.   Link!!”

 

”

[OldTimer1960]

13 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

After today, here’s what I see:

 

1. While WR should still be priority #1, Samuel is a good signing and makes it easier for the Bills to focus on BPA in the draft in those first 2 rounds especially. Depending how they grade out, I can see a lot of real possibilities 

 

2. Safety is still very thin for us, and this is a deeper draft for Safeties. I expect to spend possibly 2 later picks for young/affordable guys unless we trade a bunch away.

 

3. If WR go on a run and we don’t have any with a round 1 grade left, expect a trade back… unless:

 

4. Cooper DeJean somehow sliding to 28 could make it very hard to pass up. He’d likely be BPA and a position of need if he slides. McD would be pounding his McMeat if he could draft this guy. It’s not likely, but not impossible. 

 

5. That being said, my draft priorities remain unchanged, and in this order: WR, DT, Edge, S, IOL, CB. 

 

 

I think CB is a possibility to brace for.  DeJean has CB experience, but might play S in the league.  I would be a little surprised if they took a S in the 1st given the low $ the league is paying for the position.

[Warriorspikes51]

19 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

If MHJ makes it to the Giants at six, I'm offering this year's first and second, along with next year's first and third to try and trade up

 

There is about a 2% chance he makes it past 5.    The Chargers are not passing on him 

I'd consider NYG at 6 for Nabers    28, 60, 128, 2025 1st, 4th 

[skibum]

That probably won't happen. I think it's an interesting draft because so many QB, OT, WR, and CB are predicted to go in the top 25. Possibly 10-12 between just QB and OT alone, and the Bills don't need either of those, or a CB in rd. 1. 

 

That could mean the Bills have premier player at some other position fall into their lap - DL or S in particular, but in general there could be some very nice players available that are not WR, QB, CB, or OT. Beane could either stand pat or trade up just a few picks to get a blue chip talent. 

 

If they don't trade up big to get one of the marquee receivers, I could see them doing this instead, and taking a second-tier WR in the second round. 

Edited March 15 by skibum

[LABILLBACKER]

Odunze would be tempting at 10-12 but it still would be too expensive. Trade up a couple picks if Thomas is there.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Odunze would be tempting at 10-12 but it still would be too expensive. Trade up a couple picks if Thomas is there.

at #12 it would probably only cost this year's first, next year's first, and maybe one of our late 4th/early 5th this year? Then you could use later round 2024 picks to trade into next year (we shouldn't make 10+ picks this year anyway) and have a bevy of picks then to move up and replace some of the 2025 1st round value lost. If Odunze is a true X difference maker for Josh for years to come, will anyone care?

[papazoid]

at best beane moves up a few spots in first round

 

any talk of going up to top 10 is fantasy

 

 i say he keeps his 1st & 2nd round picks. we dont have a 3rd. uses  the rest to move up.

 

this team badly needs a real Center and a DT3. then a safety & WR.   

 

the center & WR will be from rounds 1 & 2.  the DT & S from 4th round or Free Agent