Bills Receivers worst in drops in the NFL since Brady took over

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

we have a couple drop machines in Gabe, Knox, and Cook. plus, Diggs lost his mojo somehow.

 

Gabe most likely wont be here, and hopefully Kincaid gets a larger target share from Knox.

 

Knox AND Cook both need to get their hands/heads on straight.

 

 

 

After Brady took over it was Kincaid, Cook, and Diggs who had the most drops that i remember.  

 

Kincaids were more forgetable since they tended to occur on first downs. 

Edited February 2 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[bigK14094]

JOsh throws balls to spots upon occasion hoping his receiver will get there.  I have seen both Davis and Shikir "get there", so that sometime works.  But, Josh likes the hero ball throw, and sometimes the receivers get a glove and nothing else on the ball...hence called a drop.  so, the comment above about some being on Josh is correct.  But, he does that for the right reason, and sometimes it works out ok.  On the other hand, Cooks drops this year were just lack of concentration and poor hands.  I won't say bad hands, he catches some, but dropped the td pass against the Chiefs.  Can't do that against them and be a winner.

[DCOrange]

On the season, our players positional ranks for drop % (#1 meaning they drop passes at a higher rate than anyone else).

 

WRs (minimum 40 targets, and I'll list the two WRs above and below them):

• Gabe - 28th (DeVante Parker & DK Metcalf above, Mike Evans and Davante Adams below)
• Diggs - 45th (Christian Kirk and Chris Olave above, Christian Watson and Amari Cooper below)
• Shakir - 89th (Odell and Brandon Aiyuk above, DJ Moore and Brandin Cooks below)
• This is out of 95 qualifying WRs

TEs:

• Knox - 1st (Ertz and Likely below)
• Kincaid - 27th (Hockenson and Evan Engram above, Trey McBride and Hunter Henry below)
• This is out of 46 qualifying TEs

RBs:

• Latavius - 6th (Aaron Jones and Kyren Williams above, Josh Jacobs and James Cook below)
• Cook - 7th (Saquon and Chase Edmonds below)
• This is out of 62 qualifying RBs

 

Dawson Knox & Gabe's positional ranks over the years since those are the two that tend to rack them up (Knox rank 1st, Gabe 2nd):

• 2023: 1st, 28th
• 2022: 6th, 4th
• 2021: 6th, 24th
• 2020: 11th, 13th
• 2019: 1st, N/A

 

Edited February 2 by DCOrange

[Mat68]

Cook needs to step up the catching.  After a full season work load I think he will comeback better next year.  He should be much higher. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

It's hard to determine why this happened, but once Brady took over, Buffalo had:

 

21 drops

 

10.1% drop rate

 

Both worst in the NFL over that span

To be fair, Buffalo was among the top teams in the NFL prior to Brady too. 

 

2022:

Buffalo Bills players catch rates among the highest in the league https://buffalowdown.com/posts/buffalo-bills-players-catch-rates-highest-league-01hfwshwqnt6

 

Gabe Davis has the lowest catch % in the league. Though he's hardly the only culprit. (McKenzie used to have a bunch of drops too). 

 

Shakir meanwhile had the best catch % in the league this year. Maybe it's on having better receivers. 

 

I wonder if Josh throws the ball harder than other QBs & it makes it harder to catch? (No basis to rely on for this, just a question).

 

I agree it's a problem that needs to get fixed, just seems like a bigger problem than Brady. 

 

[ProcessImproverMan]

I wonder if the colder weather mixed with Allen throwing the ball hard plays a role in it. Catching a cold football hurts sometimes. 

[Alphadawg7]

Cook only drops TD passes, thats his favorite

[hondo in seattle]

Ice cream consumption goes up in the spring as the weather improves.  Suicide rates go up in the spring, too.  

Ipso facto, increased ice cream consumption causes suicide.

 

Sometimes correlations are meaningless.  

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Cook dropped some soft balls that was frustrating.  But I am prepared for the bills to be top half for drops because Allen has a tendency to launch rockets to guys ten yards from him.  Some of Davis and Kincaids drops are more in Allen IMO.  I know people wil say if your hands touch it you should catch it out just be ready to talk about drops while Allen is here.  It’s not all the wrs.  

 

Then isn't it weird that literally every defender that got two hands on a Josh Allen pass this season managed to hang onto it? How do you explain that if Allen throws the ball too hard for his own receivers to catch?

[BuffaloBillies]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Cook only drops TD passes, thats his favorite

 

At least 3 no-doubter TDs, but you could argue 5 in total. Right in his hands every time too. Maddening.

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, ProcessImproverMan said:

I wonder if the colder weather mixed with Allen throwing the ball hard plays a role in it. Catching a cold football hurts sometimes. 

 

This is 100% a factor...not the only reason as a players ability to catch plays the biggest role, but it certainly impacts the chances for a drop.   Arm strength like Allen already makes catches somewhat harder, any WR will admit that.  Then adding in weather that can make things windy, wet and/or cold and the degree of difficulty goes up again.  Footing too can also affect the receivers ability to keep focus on the catch as well if they are dealing with wet, muddy, slippery, snowy, frozen, etc conditions.  

 

And conditions vary often during a game when weather is factor, so what you see is guys changing gloves a lot in those situations which also means they do not always have the right gloves on at a particular moment.  

 

Drops are just going to have a higher chance of happening as conditions decrease, that is just the nature of the challenges that those conditions present.  Allen firing bullets in those conditions further increases the difficulty of the catch and chances for a drop.

Edited February 2 by Alphadawg7

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

PFF also has Buffalo with 21 drops since Brady took over (including the two postseason games, so obviously we played more games in that span than a lot of other teams, thus inflating the drop totals).

 

Cook - 6

Diggs - 5

Kincaid - 3

Latavius - 2

Shakir, Gabe, Knox, Sherfield, and Morris - 1

 

Which other game did Diggs have a drop?  

 

What's interesting is that this narrative that Davis is the biggest culprit is false.  He's second to lowest in Drop% this season.  Last season was somewhat anomalous.  Last season he had 9, in his three other seasons he's had 11 total.  But it's last season's narrative that has turned him into a whipping boy.  We missed him in the playoffs and will miss him next season as we simply don't have the scratch to buy other comparable WRs.  He'll cost too much as well.  

 

I forgot about Cook, he's a big time drop artist, ... which is weird for a guy that has such a high Catch%.  Off the cuff from memory though, it seems that most of his drops are deeper passes, again, without looking.   His receptions are typically the high-percentage shorter types otherwise, so he's probably got sure hands on the high-percentage end, but struggles on the deeper throws not being a WR.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

Gabe Davis has the lowest catch % in the league. Though he's hardly the only culprit. (McKenzie used to have a bunch of drops too). 

 

Yeah, he was right down there with Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, and the forum's favorite WR, Deandre Hopkins, who was a percentage point lower.  

 

Could be the types of [deeper] routes that those types of WRs run.  But what do I know.  LOL 

 

 

[Taro Nimbus]

Its Allen.  He throws too hard.

[DCOrange]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Which other game did Diggs have a drop?  

 

What's interesting is that this narrative that Davis is the biggest culprit is false.  He's second to lowest in Drop% this season.  Last season was somewhat anomalous.  Last season he had 9, in his three other seasons he's had 11 total.  But it's last season's narrative that has turned him into a whipping boy.  We missed him in the playoffs and will miss him next season as we simply don't have the scratch to buy other comparable WRs.  He'll cost too much as well.  

 

I forgot about Cook, he's a big time drop artist, ... which is weird for a guy that has such a high Catch%.  Off the cuff from memory though, it seems that most of his drops are deeper passes, again, without looking.   His receptions are typically the high-percentage shorter types otherwise, so he's probably got sure hands on the high-percentage end, but struggles on the deeper throws not being a WR.  

 

 

 

Yeah, he was right down there with Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, and the forum's favorite WR, Deandre Hopkins, who was a percentage point lower.  

 

Could be the types of [deeper] routes that those types of WRs run.  But what do I know.  LOL 

 

 

PFF has him down for:

• Week 5: 1 drop
• Week 7: 1
• Week 10: 1
• Week 11: 1
• Week 14: 2
• Divisional Playoff: 2

[FilthyBeast]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

It's hard to determine why this happened, but once Brady took over, Buffalo had:

 

21 drops

 

10.1% drop rate

 

Both worst in the NFL over that span

 

This is a bit misleading especially given what Allen was working with. Also as much as folks praise James Cook, he had a lot of untimely drops including a few easy TD passes from Allen.

[transient]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

My theory is that JA throws the ball so hard that the Bills receivers have broken hands.  

 

 

 

 

/ sarcasm

Yeah, well Booger McFarland didn't find that so funny...

 

I couldn't find a picture of Bucky Brooks's hands with his funky, repeatedly-dislocated pinky fingers.

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

PFF has him down for:

• Week 5: 1 drop
• Week 7: 1
• Week 10: 1
• Week 11: 1
• Week 14: 2
• Divisional Playoff: 2

 

PFR has him down for:  

 

Week 5:   1 

Week 6:   1 

Week 7:   1 

Week 10:  1 

Week 11:  2 

Week 14:  2

Divisional Playoff:  2 

 

10 Total 

 

 I know that the varying stat sites often differ in their drop stats.  It's difficult finding official ones.  NFL.com sucks for advanced stats generally speaking.  

 

 

 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Joe Brady took over just as the weather started getting colder and Diggs got a case of the dropsies.  I don't think any of it has to do with Brady's scheme.

[Bruffalo]

It's not a meaningless stat, but I fail to see how it has much (if anything) to do with the OC. Wouldn't the blame fall to the positions coach well before Brady? 

[ticketssince61]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

It's hard to determine why this happened, but once Brady took over, Buffalo had:

 

21 drops

 

10.1% drop rate

 

Both worst in the NFL over that span

 

Could it be colder weather later in the season

[damj]

10 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Shakir is money.

 

Diggs is money when his head is right. 

 

Kincaid is money.

 

Everyone else is gone except Knox. He’s probably not going to change at this point. 
 

Shorter and Isabella, I don’t know.

Agreed.

 

And if Shorter and/or Isabella are getting regular snaps next season, then our offseason was a fail 

[Since1981]

'QB arm is too strong'-->yep, we are not in the drought years anymore! 1st world complaint right there!!

Cook is not a WR and became a centerpiece post-Dorsey. Cook dropping passes along the way. His drops are statistically significant. 

 

[Coldfronts]

That's an easy one… The weather got worse.  It's harder to catch a wet ice-cold brick of a ball bare handed, and if gloved it takes a while to get used to the feel, if ever. 

Edited February 2 by Coldfronts

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So, where are you getting those stats? I'd love to see week by week data.

 

In any case, there are many causes. It's not one thing, it's many working together.

 

But a lot of it is that Josh has a bit harder time with short throws than with longer ones, and that he sometimes puts mustard on balls that are short, making it really hard to handle. And mustard from Josh is hotter than just about any other in the league. More short throws under Brady than under Dorsey.

 

That's not all, though. Receivers  certainly have a part in it.

 

Oh, and take a look at your math. It's a small difference, but 21 drops in 229 passes is 9.17%. I assume you meant in-season drops, right? That's 229 attempts. If you were including the playoffs, it would be 69 more throws.

 

So, not 10.1%. Instead 9.17%. Not that that's a great figure either, but correct figures are more useful in understanding the world.

 

 

 

 

I got them from Joe Marino in this podcast:

 

I don't know where exactly Joe got the numbers, but Joe has plenty of credibility to trust those numbers are accurate.

 

I just thought it was super interesting because I think Brady did a great job, but we had a lot more drops.  I think on NFL Live Dan Orlovsky was doing a bit showing how the switch from Dorsey to Brady shifted a lot more of our passing focus to passes behind the LOS with screens and balls down the field.  And as we saw in the KC game, it's a lot of those down the field passes that wind up being drops.  James Cook dropped multiple TDs that would also be considered those "down the field" passes.

[ngbills]

Along with a lot of the coaching discussion. We see a lot of these issues yet no forced changed to coaching staffs. A lot of these issues in my opinion are lack of repetition and preparedness. That at least partially falls on our coaches. Our RB coach has been here since 2017 and I wonder have our RB's grown under his watch? Singletary. Moss, and now Cook I would argue have not shown a town of growth in most parts of their game. Cook and his fumbles and drops are up compared to college. Cook still is not fully trusted to run block or many times be the receiving back. Just one example. 

[Shortchaz]

7 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

My theory is that JA throws the ball so hard that the Bills receivers have broken hands.  

 

 

 

 

/ sarcasm

Not to be a douche, but josh doesn’t really throw a receiver friendly ball. He only has a low trajectory fastball. The receivers ARE supposed to catch everything (being pros) but josh doesn’t do himself any favors. 

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

He only has a low trajectory fastball.

 

This is obviously false. What are we even doing here? Again, he had ZERO dropped interceptions on the season. If defenders can catch his passes, his teammates that are paid to catch his passes can do it too.

 

It's crazy how many excuses fans come up with to avoid admitting that his pass catchers simply weren't very good this year. Shakir was probably the best of them over the course of the entire season, and that represents a huge failure by Beane.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

Cook is the worst 'pass catching' RB I've seen in awhile. Dude has stone hands. 

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

JOsh throws balls to spots upon occasion hoping his receiver will get there.  I have seen both Davis and Shikir "get there", so that sometime works.  But, Josh likes the hero ball throw, and sometimes the receivers get a glove and nothing else on the ball...hence called a drop.  so, the comment above about some being on Josh is correct.  But, he does that for the right reason, and sometimes it works out ok.  On the other hand, Cooks drops this year were just lack of concentration and poor hands.  I won't say bad hands, he catches some, but dropped the td pass against the Chiefs.  Can't do that against them and be a winner.

 

This is incorrect.  Stats sites are really lenient on the receiver. They only count a drop if it's a routine catch. The ball pretty much needs perfect placement and if it's in any way difficult of a catch they don't record it as a drop.  Even if they get both hands fully on the ball, if they had to jump for it or have to outstretch for it or have to go low for it or anything... they don't record it as a drop.  This is why you might see a receiver drop balls in game but then look at the stat sheet and see zero drops.

Edited February 2 by Scott7975

[mbowman14]

Just now, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

Cook is the worst 'pass catching' RB I've seen in awhile. Dude has stone hands. 

He doesn't have stone hands which is the really frustrating part.  I think it is a concentration issue.  The corner route he ran from the backfield for a TD against Dallas is a catch stone hands receivers don't make.  Way too many drops for his skillset.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

9 minutes ago, mbowman14 said:

He doesn't have stone hands which is the really frustrating part.  I think it is a concentration issue.  The corner route he ran from the backfield for a TD against Dallas is a catch stone hands receivers don't make.  Way too many drops for his skillset.

"Butter fingers" then?

Point is that the empirical evidence thus far is he is bad at catching a football. 

[Peter]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

It's hard to determine why this happened, but once Brady took over, Buffalo had:

 

21 drops

 

10.1% drop rate

 

Both worst in the NFL over that span

 

I don't blame Brady for the drops . . . just as I did not blame Dorsey for turnovers and players not performing as they should (although some here wanted to blame Dorsey for that, inflation, crime, the war in the Ukraine, October 7 . . . ).

 

Players need to perform. 

[wppete]

That was all Diggs and Sheffield. 

[Pete]

13 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:

They started throwing more bubble screens to Diggs early in games, and it seemed like alot of those fell incomplete. Then mix in Cook, Gabe, and Knox dropping one or two a game each, and that's the bulk of them.

Most of Knox's drops were when he was playing with a broken wrist.  Diggs wrists are not as broken as far as I can tell, but Im not a doctor

[Ga boy]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is obviously false. What are we even doing here? Again, he had ZERO dropped interceptions on the season. If defenders can catch his passes, his teammates that are paid to catch his passes can do it too.

 

It's crazy how many excuses fans come up with to avoid admitting that his pass catchers simply weren't very good this year. Shakir was probably the best of them over the course of the entire season, and that represents a huge failure by Beane.

Well said Happy.  Sorry to hear about Carl Weathers.

[CincyBillsFan]

You can make an argument that the drops directly cost the Bills games:

 

*  Against the Jags the Diggs drop at the 5 yard line that resulted in a Jag INT was huge.

 

*  Against NE the 4th down drop by Knox was huge.

 

*  Against the Eagles the TD drop by Cook was huge.

 

*  Against Denver the drop by Davis that ended up as a Broncos INT was huge.

 

*  Against the Chiefs the 3 drops by Sherfield & Diggs combined were huge.

 

 

 

 

 

[Shortchaz]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is obviously false. What are we even doing here? Again, he had ZERO dropped interceptions on the season. If defenders can catch his passes, his teammates that are paid to catch his passes can do it too.

 

It's crazy how many excuses fans come up with to avoid admitting that his pass catchers simply weren't very good this year. Shakir was probably the best of them over the course of the entire season, and that represents a huge failure by Beane.

The two things aren’t mutually exclusive. The receivers sucked and josh could work on his touch. 

[DJB]

We saw Beane go after Kincaid because of his hands. I expect the same this year when we take a WR.

 

1. Hands

2. Speed

3. Route technician

 

Likely are the 3 most important criteria that Beane is looking for in a WR in this class

[MiracleAtRich1393]

23 minutes ago, DJB said:

We saw Beane go after Kincaid because of his hands. I expect the same this year when we take a WR.

 

1. Hands

2. Speed

3. Route technician

 

Likely are the 3 most important criteria that Beane is looking for in a WR in this class

Of the receivers that should be there at 28, sounds like AD Mitchell to me? Maybe #2 not as much

[billsherd]

Allen throws too hard.