Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

[Bills!Win!]

2 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

what nobody is talking about is if the Steelers tie, or the jaguars tie, or the bills tie. The bills will make it. It doesn’t just have to be losses 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Bills!Win! said:

what nobody is talking about is if the Steelers tie, or the jaguars tie, or the bills tie. The bills will make it. It doesn’t just have to be losses 

They're not talking about it, because the likelihood of a tie is about the same as flipping a coin and having it land on its side.

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

Yeah, if you play with the simulator it’s junk.  If I select Bills and Titans losing it still gives the Bills an 85% chance of making the playoffs.  Which obviously makes little sense since PIT is actually favored.

[longtimebillsfan]

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

My Thurman jersey is retired on game days due to Super Bowl losses and many important games the Bills lost, due to me wearing that jersey.  I’m sorry Bills Mafia

 

You are awesome 34! I will buy another 34 jersey.

 

That old jersey had some bad ju ju on gamedays.

 

Thats my long winded answer- Don’t temp fate, pick another jersey.  Rasul-Oliver-Bernard-Taron -etc- there are so many great Bills jerseys to choose from

Good advise.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

They almost don’t look real is right!!!  Only 36 TDs in 11 games?  I was sure he had over 50 vs miami

Edited January 6 by NewEra

[YattaOkasan]

46 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I have a delema.

 

I haven't worn my Josh jersey for a game since the "13 seconds" playoff game in KC.

 

I am thinking of wearing it Sunday night.

 

Do I dare?

I would/will (mines doesn’t have bad juju though). Dude got snubbed from Pro Bowl. I think that disrespect is gonna burn in his belly and he’s gonna have another monster game against the fish. 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

My Thurman jersey is retired on game days due to Super Bowl losses and many important games the Bills lost, due to me wearing that jersey.  I’m sorry Bills Mafia

 

You are awesome 34! I will buy another 34 jersey.

 

That old jersey had some bad ju ju on gamedays.

 

Thats my long winded answer- Don’t temp fate, pick another jersey.  Rasul-Oliver-Bernard-Taron -etc- there are so many great Bills jerseys to choose from

Don’t forget the custom made #11 Sharty jersey compliments of @BADOLBILZ

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

what nobody is talking about is if the Steelers tie, or the jaguars tie, or the bills tie. The bills will make it. It doesn’t just have to be losses 

 

Because a tie almost never happens.

[Chandler#81]

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

That security guard looks ready to go to the mat with your son

He had to do something! His team was getting crushed -again- and the opponent has a flamboyant patron stealing their thunder

[RiotAct]

32 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

we only need one of three events to “fire” in order to make the dance.

 

I figure we have about a 60% chance to beat a hobbled Fish team, and put the Steelers-Ravens game at close to 50-50.  So, 82% sounds about right (Titans beating Jags is a bit of a longshot).

[SWATeam]

3 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

we only need one of three events to “fire” in order to make the dance.

 

I figure we have about a 60% chance to beat a hobbled Fish team, and put the Steelers-Ravens game at close to 50-50.  So, 82% sounds about right (Titans beating Jags is a bit of a longshot).

Even the Titans are only 3.5 point dogs.  Calculating the % based on the disqualifying three leg parlay is the best method, IMO.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

41 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss).

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Behindenemylines]

17 hours ago, Blank Stare said:

Go Tanny!

Never thought I’d be rooting for Tannehill to be good.  
 

 

[TheWei44]

Ravens and Titans are 3 to 4 point dogs - So assume each has 30% chance of winning and give Bills 60% chance on Sunday night.  Then the probability of all three "bad" events occurring is (70%)*(70%)*(40%) = 19.6%.  So those estimates imply 80% chance Bills get into playoffs one way or another.

[julian]

1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

The NYT calculator isn’t factoring the scaredy cat Bills fans, it’s not even factoring in Allen’s massive tea bagging of the Dolphins collective chins over his career, seems to be a useless tool of entertainment and not a legitimate predictor of outcomes.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Sounds like Waddle is playing now and the line has moved in Miami's direction.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:

I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right.  I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose.  The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters.

Can you show your work to get to 60%?    What odds do your give bills to beat the dolphins?

[fergie's ire]

Just now, Matt_In_NH said:

Can you show your work to get to 60%?    What odds do your give bills to beat the dolphins?

No hard calculations...just a feel.  But probably would put it at 57% to beat dolphins and about 3% for Steelers or Jags to lose.  Just don't have any faith that the latter will happen.

[Yobogoya!]

1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

 

 

[fergie's ire]

49 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss).

Oh, I get it.  And I think it is closer but might still be a bit optimistic.  Dolphins are banged up, I get it...and Ravens SHOULD be a much better team...and Jags have been struggling.  Still, I am optimistic...but very cautiously so.  In another post I responded to where I got my numbers which are not hard quantifiable numbers like your own.  I would put it this way.  95% means a virtual certainty.  Your 80% would translate as very likely to me.  I think 60 or even 66% translates as likely, but not VERY likely which is how I feel their chances are.

[Beck Water]

22 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Never thought I’d be rooting for Tannehill to be good.  
 

 

 

I Hear Ya, Bro!  Never thought I'd be fervently rooting for the Poe-Birds!

[CNYfan]

I have it at  38.10%.

Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation.   I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2%  

Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent.

Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65%

 

So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight.

Edited January 6 by CNYfan
grammar

[vanhalen26]

I bet the parlay and win enough for a very large bottle of vodka if the bills are out.  That way I can drown my sorrows.

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I have it at  38.10%.

Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation.   I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2%  

Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent.

Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65%

 

So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight.

Where's the confused emoji?

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

14 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

Nicely done

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I have it at  38.10%.

Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation.   I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2%  

Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent.

Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65%

 

So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight.

I hate that I’m getting involved in this argument, but this doesn’t make any sense.

 

If our only path was Bills/Dolphins, Bills

win and make the playoffs .. given the setting, injuries, meaning etc.. we, at least, have a 50/50 shot at winning that game and making the playoffs, correct?

 

So, our game alone equates to a 50% chance. 
 

How do we lose probability by having two other chances, in addition to our own game, at getting in?

[Dillenger4]

I wish everyone would stop talking about the Miami injuries. It's football with the division on the line. The #2 seed. It's January football.

If you buy into Hill wearing a boot or Waddle having a boo-boo on his ankle, or Mosteart having a cut on his foot - gimme a break.

The Phins are one of the fakest teams out there along with NE. These boys are playing and will be playing with everything they have! So will the Bills. This game is for all the marbles: The #2 seed. It's gonna be a dogfight. Bills win a tough battle! GO BILLS!!!!!!

[Cash]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I hate that I’m getting involved in this argument, but this doesn’t make any sense.

 

If our only path was Bills/Dolphins, Bills

win and make the playoffs .. given the setting, injuries, meaning etc.. we, at least, have a 50/50 shot at winning that game and making the playoffs, correct?

 

So, our game alone equates to a 50% chance. 
 

How do we lose probability by having two other chances, in addition to our own game, at getting in?

It’s a joke post. Intentionally bad math to be funny. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

15 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I have it at  38.10%.

Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation.   I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2%  

Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent.

Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65%

 

So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight.

I hope this is an attempt at humor. If not, you owe your math teachers a throat punch. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Our up and down frustratingly miserable season can be saved today. If somehow the Ravens defense can just suffocate the Steelers and put us in….I don’t care how we got here or what it looks like, just get in. After all this aggravation, make teams regret letting us stay alive.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

Found my “dolphins suck” hat. I’m ready! Go Bills!  

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Our up and down frustratingly miserable season can be saved today. If somehow the Ravens defense can just suffocate the Steelers and put us in….I don’t care how we got here or what it looks like, just get in. After all this aggravation, make teams regret letting us stay alive.

 

its funny about perspectives. You found this season miserable? After the drought teams I find it really hard to be miserable during bills season. Frustrating in some aspects sometimes sure, but overall a very entertaining season so far for me

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

49 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I have it at  38.10%.

Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation.   I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2%  

Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent.

Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65%

 

So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight.

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

[Beck Water]

58 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Where's the confused emoji?

 

I don't know but will this one do?  🤯

 

44 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

I hope this is an attempt at humor. If not, you owe your math teachers a throat punch. 

 

That - and also, Don't Play Cards for $

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[JerseyBills]

Anyone know why Diggs didn't practice Fri? 

Also Morse being questionable with an illness sucks. 

 

https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/injury-report/

 

Miami also looks like their injuries are trending in right direction 

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

It looks like the Dolphins will have more starters back the we had hoped for earlier in the week.

 

We are going to get their very best effort. 

 

I think many posters herw are underestimating how difficult this game will be.

 

I for one believe this game will be difficult for the Bills to win if we don't bring our "A" game.

 

The way we gave played recently, can anyone say with confidence that the Bills will play their best on Sunday night?

 

I am officially worried.

Imo, anyone who thought that initial injury list was valid must have been stoned, the list was a ploy nothing more, the fins are going to use any method possible to get their guys on the field if they win they are the two seed, if they don’t win they are a sixth seed, and they don’t want to go down that road in the post season, we/the Bills win and we are the two seed, lose and we are the seventh seed or we are out, It’s going to be a knock down drag out brutal game, and the Bills are going to win!!!!

[TheWei44]

6 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, anyone who thought that initial injury list was valid must have been stoned, the list was a ploy nothing more, the fins are going to use any method possible to get their guys on the field if they win they are the two seed, if they don’t win they are a sixth seed, and they don’t want to go down that road in the post season, we/the Bills win and we are the two seed, lose and we are the seventh seed or we are out, It’s going to be a knock down drag out brutal game, and the Bills are going to win!!!!

Yep, as it has been for a while, this is essentially another playoff game for us.  We're battle tested!!  Go Bills!!

[Bigvinny]