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[Rigotz]

This is a very old thread, please delete or merge:

 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Rigotz

[Gunsgoodtime]

Needed another Defensive pick to keep our 3 to 1 ratio

[Andy1]

He’s not big enough to replace Edmunds. It was an odd pick. I’m wondering like you. 

[Wizard]

Good question and thought.

 

I have three brief ideas why Bernard was chosen in round #3.

 

1. The Bills do not have a lot of linebacking depth and are always (too much in my view) looking for their next special teams and versatile backup.

 

#2. The Bills likely had Bernard as a late 2nd round pick and went with their BPA rather than mixing that in with potentially a higher needed position or defensive fit.

 

#3. As has been said on other lists, the Bills are obsessed with drafting defensive players who overall have not lived up to their pick in the draft.

 

I would go with all three answers. The Bills will likely pay Edmunds. Hopefully they realize whether Bernard takes on a bigger role or not,  that anything more than $13million a year for Edmunds is likely not worth it knowing that Edmunds is our 2nd best starting linebacker out of two starting linebackers.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Wizard
Grammar

[Matt_In_NH]

I think the plan is to develop him. He is undersized but so is/was Milano.   No guarantees it works out.  I think his production would have made him a much higher pick if he had more prototype size.  

[LEBills]

The reason is because McDermott is very close to Baylor HC and Bernard was a very good teammate with some talent.

 

Not a good pick imo as you can see from my post history but McDermott takes his connections’ recommendations very seriously. For example, Baylors HC Aranda was the LSU DC when we drafted Tre. 

[Maybe Someday]

I believe the hope was to use him in a traditional 4-3. TJ7 was just a better player so we stuck with the nickel. Hope he develops. Looked totally lost when he did play. 

[Aussie Joe]

8 minutes ago, LEBills said:

The reason is because McDermott is very close to Baylor HC and Bernard was a very good teammate with some talent.

 

Not a good pick imo as you can see from my post history but McDermott takes his connections’ recommendations very seriously. For example, Baylors HC Aranda was the LSU DC when we drafted Tre. 

There were considerable differences in the pre draft prospects of Tre and Bernard…

 

My question around Bernard is … even if they liked him… did they take him like at least two rounds too early?

[947]

I think they went into the draft thinking this would be Edmunds' last year as a Bill. They liked him & thought after they could get him ready to play LB with a redshirt year. It sure seems like a failed plan at this point, but who knows.

 

The problem I have with it, is why draft a guy in the 3rd round that you could've gotten in the 4th or maybe even 5th? Beane may have had a 2nd round grade on him, but he should've known most teams looked at him as a Day 3 pick. I have no problem with getting your guy, but value matters. This decision likely cost us a 3rd round OG who could've supplanted Saffold.

[CincyBillsFan]

BPA. The problem is that this type of thinking only works when you don't have any glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball.  The Bills unfortunately had some.

 

 

[Nephilim17]

I'm flummoxed too. And unless someone gives a great answer, for me at least, the Bernard pick will be proof of why you don't draft strict BPA. He appears to a be hybrid safety-linebacker but he doesn't (if I recall) have great traits.

 

I'm not  a draft guru but I'd be willing to bet many starting O-linemen were taken around that pick. 

 

If Benford turns into a starting safety that will mitigate some of the drafting weirdness, like this pick. I guess they thought the O-line was better than it was and Davis was a legit number two and they could get cute.

[Johnnyp566]

It’s along the lines of the Epenesa and Basham picks. You could absolutely telegraph the fact that they may never be high impact players based on limitations. Add Bernard to the list of bizarre picks by Beane and co.

[JMM]

Waaaay too early to make any judgements oh him. However,  there is NO doubt he was drafted too high, and most " experts " said so at the time. 

[Beck Water]

 

 

56 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Yes, I know he looked terrible this season in limited play.

3rd rounder in a potential Super Bowl year.

We needed OL and WR badly.

Why did we draft him?

 

The Bills play a base 4-2-5 defense… 4 down linemen, two linebackers, 5 DBs including a Nickel (Taron) who acts as a linebacker at times. Was Bernard intended as insurance against a Taron or Edmunds injury? Was he intended to be used as a core special teamer and traditional OLB in 4-3 looks?

 

I didn’t understand this pick at the time and still don’t … unless it was always the plan to groom him to replace Edmunds… which also seems odd in a SB year.

 

So… what do you think was the ideal outcome Beane had in mind?

 

Try to keep the snarky/defeatist answers to a minimum.

 

I got Nothin', sorry.  I was hella puzzled by that pick at the time.

 

7 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm flummoxed too. And unless someone gives a great answer, for me at least, the Bernard pick will be proof of why you don't draft strict BPA. He appears to a be hybrid safety-linebacker but he doesn't (if I recall) have great traits.

 

I'm not  a draft guru but I'd be willing to bet many starting O-linemen were taken around that pick. 

 

If Benford turns into a starting safety that will mitigate some of the drafting weirdness, like this pick. I guess they thought the O-line was better than it was and Davis was a legit number two and they could get cute.

 

Well, have a look.  Bernard was pick #89

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/draft.htm

Edited January 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[TheyCallMeAndy]

He is a phenomenal athlete and very intelligent. Could be they wanted the option to play more 3 LBs and not have a massive liability with Klein or Dodson in coverage (although Dodson is extremely athletic).

 

Could be the move Taron Johnson to SS and they have a more traditional defense. 

[Nephilim17]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

 

I got Nothin', sorry.  I was hella puzzled by that pick at the time.

 

Well, have a look.  Bernard was pick #89

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/draft.htm

Well, a quick check shows that Dylan Parham, Las Vegas Raiders, made the NFL.com all rookie team — drafted right after Bernard, 90th overall. I'm not gonna continue this exercise but I'm pretty sure history shows a lot of good lineman in the third and fourth rounds.. Yes, hindsight is 20/20 but management should have known O-line was a greater need than a very undersized linebacker with middling speed.

[billsfan89]

Parham was right there. I get that LB was a depth need but the team needed both depth at guard and someone to take over for Saffold long term.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Way too early to tell if this was a bad pick or not.

[somnus00]

Not being snarky. This seems like hubris by Beane. I think he bought into this being a superbowl year so he drafted a potential backup for the oft injured Milano... with a 3rd round pick.

 

I still like Beane as the gm, and it's way too early to tell, but this seems like a big, puzzling mistake.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

Yes, I know he looked terrible this season in limited play.

3rd rounder in a potential Super Bowl year.

We needed OL and WR badly.

Why did we draft him?

 

The Bills play a base 4-2-5 defense… 4 down linemen, two linebackers, 5 DBs including a Nickel (Taron) who acts as a linebacker at times. Was Bernard intended as insurance against a Taron or Edmunds injury? Was he intended to be used as a core special teamer and traditional OLB in 4-3 looks?

 

I didn’t understand this pick at the time and still don’t … unless it was always the plan to groom him to replace Edmunds… which also seems odd in a SB year.

 

So… what do you think was the ideal outcome Beane had in mind?

 

Try to keep the snarky/defeatist answers to a minimum.

It’s looking like a pretty bad pick.  I don’t believe Bernard was drafted to replace Edmunds.  My guess is maybe they thought he could be the 3rd LB in a 4-3?  I just know he struggled badly when he saw time this season.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Wizard said:

Good question and thought.

 

I have three brief ideas why Bernard was chosen in round #3.

 

1. The Bills do not have a lot of linebacking depth and are always (too much in my view) looking for their next special teams and versatile backup.

 

#2. The Bills likely had Bernard as a late 2nd round pick and went with their BPA rather than mixing that in with potentially a higher needed position or defensive fit.

 

#3. As has been said on other lists, the Bills are obsessed with drafting defensive players who overall have not lived up to their pick in the draft.

 

I would go with all three answers. The Bills will likely pay Edmunds. Hopefully they realize whether Bernard takes on a bigger role or not,  that anything more than $13million a year for Edmunds is likely not worth it knowing that Edmunds is our 2nd best starting linebacker out of two starting linebackers.

I'll take #3 for $500 Alex...joking aside it was an odd pick that turned into a terrible pick. Could've taken OG Dylan Parham who went next pick.

Edited January 29, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Brand J]

Those “Beane is a wizard” posts are nowhere to be found these days…

[dpberr]

I don't understand his healthy scratch every game or the on again off again Brandin Bryant saga. 

[BillsShredder83]

We undoubtedbly picked him, in the 3rd, being certain he would redshirt.

 

Not going to argue this point, right/wrong, they 100% must have loved something about him. My guess is smarts/speed. A guy to eventually help us against premier TE matchups, and blitzing. Would be really cool to have a speedy 4-3 LB, who can lineup behind Miller and play at a pre injury Merriman type role.

[BillsFanForever19]

I didn't like the pick to begin with as Bernard was not on anyone's radar as a 3rd Round Pick. When you "reach" for someone on Day 2 - you need them to show why they were worth it in fit or style. He absolutely didn't. 

 

As for WR - the good news is at that point I had Khalil Shakir as the best available WR on the board. And we were able to still get him at the top of Round 5. I remember telling myself "well, if you switch out 3rd and 5ths - it looks a lot better".

 

Unfortunately, it's pretty obvious we should have went with Dylan Parham there, who went the very next pick and shouldn't have been there in the first place and started all 17 games for the Raiders.

Edited January 29, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[KDIGGZ]

He was supposed to be a hybrid LB that could also cover TE's so we wouldn't be stuck in the nickel defense and allow teams to run it down our throats like what we saw vs Colts and Titans and NE last year. He didn't look good in college and he doesn't look good now tbh. Same with Cook, Bills thought the roster was set so let's get some players to fill some weird niche. Cook was the "receiving RB" and Bernard was supposed to be the hybrid LB that could also play special teams. Both guys drafted too high but Cook looks like he might actually be a good RB in addition to receiver so it might work out with him. I don't have high hopes for Bernard.

[DapperCam]

Probably hoped to mix in more 3 LB looks this year, but Bernard struggled so it didn’t work out. Maybe next year.

[Snappysnackcakes]

49 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

Not being snarky. This seems like hubris by Beane. I think he bought into this being a superbowl year so he drafted a potential backup for the oft injured Milano... with a 3rd round pick.

 

I still like Beane as the gm, and it's way too early to tell, but this seems like a big, puzzling mistake.

This ^^^

[Andy1]

The only thing that makes sense to me is they hope to use him in a 3 backer D after they had problems stopping the power run game in 2021 used by Indy and Tenn as well as someone who could match up with Kelse.

 

He must be more of a project than they realized.

[MJS]

I guess we'll see in a couple of years. I think this regime drafts to develop players. They don't like to play rookies, even though a lot of them are forced onto the field. I think they draft guys planning to have them develop for a couple of years before they are really a part of the equation.

[Airseven]

Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.

[Airseven]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

I guess we'll see in a couple of years. I think this regime drafts to develop players. They don't like to play rookies, even though a lot of them are forced onto the field. I think they draft guys planning to have them develop for a couple of years before they are really a part of the equation.

NFL is play now, win now. If this were actually true, then no wonder the team is plateauing. It’s a dinosaur mentality.

[gobills404]

The plan better be to have him add 10 pounds and play MLB, cause drafting someone on day 2 with a plan of them never being a full time starter is inexcusable

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

It was a smart pick. He fits the profile of what they look for at LB. I suspect he just ended up rawer than anticipated, and has a steeper learning curve. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

BPA. The problem is that this type of thinking only works when you don't have any glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball.  The Bills unfortunately had some.

 

 

If the Bills had Bernard as their BPA then they are seriously flawed and perhaps clueless. By most experts boards Bernard was projected to go somewhere in the 5th round. 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'll take #3 for $500 Alex...joking aside it was an odd pick that turned into a terrible pick. Could've taken OG Dylan Parham who went next pick.

I remember so many pounding the table for Parham. 

[Brand J]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

If the Bills had Bernard as their BPA then they are seriously flawed and perhaps clueless. By most experts boards Bernard was projected to go somewhere in the 5th round. 

It was rumored the Cowpokes were really high on him and may have taken him in the 4th. Not sure if that’s why the Bills snatched him in the 3rd, but this team isn’t good enough to have any picks 1-3 as healthy inactives. Those need to be contributors and I’m not talking special teams. 

[WeckMonster]

Undersized and slow with a history of injuries.  Pick was bad in the moment and only got worse.  1st-3rd round picks basically have to be starters or at least rotational players.  Bernard can go onto the Epenesa, Basham, Moss, Ford scrap heap of wasted high round picks.

[newcam2012]

48 minutes ago, WeckMonster said:

Undersized and slow with a history of injuries.  Pick was bad in the moment and only got worse.  1st-3rd round picks basically have to be starters or at least rotational players.  Bernard can go onto the Epenesa, Basham, Moss, Ford scrap heap of wasted high round picks.

I agree. I think the Beane and company are much better drafting in the later rounds. Not sure why. 

[Dr.Sack]

Beane is horrible at drafting. 

[Brand J]

1 minute ago, Dr.Sack said:

Beane is horrible at drafting. 

I don’t know if he’s “horrible,” but he’s missed on some players I thought would be stars at the NFL level and they have been. He and his scouts have access to more resources than I could ever imagine, so for me to know who the better player would be in the draft is kinda damning. It’s like he’s outsmarting himself. This year I don’t want to see any double down picks unless it’s OL. Also don’t want to see him trading up and burning picks either.