Just Gonna Say It: Von Miller was very good, but not great this year.

[gobills404]

Here’s a list of all the EDGE players with more sacks per game and more TFL per game than Von this year.

 

Brian Burns

Maxx Crosby

Micah Parsons

Nick Bosa

 

That’s it.

[BuffaloMatt]

 

How the Bills can transcend Von Miller's season-ending injury article

 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/buffalo-bills-transcend-von-miller-season-ending-injury-acl-surgery/

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by BuffaloMatt

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Von was playing at a high level but the real issue is the drop off from Von to Epenesa is astounding.  Hughes was capable but Epenesa is horrible. Hope he proves me wrong with this short stretch to start and play significant meaningful snaps.

[Bray Wyatt]

46 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

Here’s a list of all the EDGE players with more sacks per game and more TFL per game than Von this year.

 

Brian Burns

Maxx Crosby

Micah Parsons

Nick Bosa

 

That’s it.

 No Judon?

[L Ron Burgundy]

Imo.  We need to change our style of play and go all out aggressive offense.   Josh can handle it.   Wrs need to step the f up.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Von was playing at a high level but the real issue is the drop off from Von to Epenesa is astounding.  Hughes was capable but Epenesa is horrible. Hope he proves me wrong with this short stretch to start and play significant meaningful snaps.

With Von done this will probably be Epenesa's final chance to prove he's a legit pass rusher. No more rotational fill in guy. No more rushing way to deep beyond the qb. No more missed tackles. 

[thenorthremembers]

Not sure if anyone touched on this yet, but the guy was on pace for the highest single season sack number for the Bills since 2016.   He had the highest number of sacks for an edge rusher since McDermott took over in just 11 games. 

 

Say what you want.  But for whatever reason, in a defensive scheme that seems to produce low sack numbers, especially for edge rushers, the guy was worth every penny they paid him.    Please stop comparing sack numbers of players in different defenses, unless they come here and play you are comparing apples to oranges.

[Brand J]

What worries me most about Frazier is his (in)ability to change up defensive schemes. His go to and preferred defense is a nickel cover 2 look. He hardly ever comes out of that defense, even when the Bills get gashed for runs, they’re still running 5 DBs out on the field. His defense works very well when the front 4 can get pressure (which defense doesn’t?) but not so well if they can’t.
 

With Von being out, I don’t see any other playmakers on D besides maybe Ed Oliver and occasionally Rousseau being able to step up and make a big play when it’s needed. Neither player is Von Miller caliber and if the defense has to blitz more to create pressure (which they will), that isn’t Frazier’s specialty, so the blitz packages will prolly suck and get picked up rather easily. It’s too late for an aggressive DC who knows how to disguise his blitzes very well. Chiefs fans b*tch and moan about Spags, but I’d prefer his style to Frazier if we don’t have at least one pass rushing demon.

The defense without Von was a paper Tiger, always wilted against top offenses, so technically nothing changes. It was always going to come down to how far the offense carries them and we’re going to find out shortly if Josh and the rest of the guys are up to the task.

[RiotAct]

3 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

What worries me most about Frazier is his (in)ability to change up defensive schemes. His go to and preferred defense is a nickel cover 2 look. He hardly ever comes out of that defense, even when the Bills get gashed for runs, they’re still running 5 DBs out on the field. His defense works very well when the front 4 can get pressure (which defense doesn’t?) but not so well if they can’t.
 

With Von being out, I don’t see any other playmakers on D besides maybe Ed Oliver and occasionally Rousseau being able to step up and make a big play when it’s needed. Neither player is Von Miller caliber and if the defense has to blitz more to create pressure (which they will), that isn’t Frazier’s specialty, so the blitz packages will prolly suck and get picked up rather easily. It’s too late for an aggressive DC who knows how to disguise his blitzes very well. Chiefs fans b*tch and moan about Spags, but I’d prefer his style to Frazier if we don’t have at least one pass rushing demon.

The defense without Von was a paper Tiger, always wilted against top offenses, so technically nothing changes. It was always going to come down to how far the offense carries them and we’re going to find out shortly if Josh and the rest of the guys are up to the task.

the Miami game next Saturday will be a good measuring stick.

 

 Well, first I guess we will see what other injury fun comes our way on the defensive side of the ball in the next 7-8 days.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

What worries me most about Frazier is his (in)ability to change up defensive schemes. His go to and preferred defense is a nickel cover 2 look. He hardly ever comes out of that defense, even when the Bills get gashed for runs, they’re still running 5 DBs out on the field. His defense works very well when the front 4 can get pressure (which defense doesn’t?) but not so well if they can’t.
 

With Von being out, I don’t see any other playmakers on D besides maybe Ed Oliver and occasionally Rousseau being able to step up and make a big play when it’s needed. Neither player is Von Miller caliber and if the defense has to blitz more to create pressure (which they will), that isn’t Frazier’s specialty, so the blitz packages will prolly suck and get picked up rather easily. It’s too late for an aggressive DC who knows how to disguise his blitzes very well. Chiefs fans b*tch and moan about Spags, but I’d prefer his style to Frazier if we don’t have at least one pass rushing demon.

The defense without Von was a paper Tiger, always wilted against top offenses, so technically nothing changes. It was always going to come down to how far the offense carries them and we’re going to find out shortly if Josh and the rest of the guys are up to the task.

So Burrow was like 6 of 7 for over 100 yards and a TD against the Chiefs blitz last weekend.  Allen destroys teams when they blitz.  

You may like looking at blitzes but against even decent QBs you are more likely to get burned.  Hate it all you want but dropping 7 or 8 in coverage and rushing 4 or even three is the right recipe to stop potent offenses. I presume you like watching winning more than you do watching blitzes and losses.

Against run heavy teams I can see using a 4-3 some of the time.  But even teams that run a lot, still run from a 3 WR set frequently.  Nobody except maybe Belichick is going to stay in a 4-3 against a 3 WR set.  Most teams just like the Bills are in nickel the vast majority of the game.  It's just how it is now.  You need to just accept it.  

 

That said, I agree the D has always been a paper tiger padding their stats on the terrible QBs they have faced the last two years.  

If they want to beat the Chiefs or the Bengals in the playoffs the Bills are going to need to score 40.  

 

Lastly the great equalizer is turnovers. When Josh plays clean, the Bills are nearly unstoppable.  Josh has been better lately but he has been really careless with the ball this year.  Even last week there was a possible pick 6 the Pats LB dropped right before the half.  Bills are tied for 17th in turnover ratio at an even Zero (20 takeaways/20 giveaways).  The good news is they are 4th in takeaways.  So they can produce the turnovers when needed. Sadly they are 3rd in giveaways with 11 INT (5th highest) and 9 fumbles(3rd highest).  If they can play clean this team is good enough to win the SB! 

 

PS Eagles are +13 in turnover ratio with a QB that has only thrown 3 INT, but on this board he is no good.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ethan in Cleveland

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I’m just happy to see that someone started a thread this week that was widely disliked than my Hines thread. 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Von was playing at a high level but the real issue is the drop off from Von to Epenesa is astounding.  Hughes was capable but Epenesa is horrible. Hope he proves me wrong with this short stretch to start and play significant meaningful snaps.

Expect to see more Shaq than epenesa imo.  

[TampaBillsJunkie]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

With Von being out, I don’t see any other playmakers on D besides maybe Ed Oliver and occasionally Rousseau being able to step up and make a big play when it’s needed.

Milano! The boy can flat out play and comes up big. #2 Taron Johnson. #3 Poyer.  

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

What worries me most about Frazier is his (in)ability to change up defensive schemes. His go to and preferred defense is a nickel cover 2 look. He hardly ever comes out of that defense, even when the Bills get gashed for runs, they’re still running 5 DBs out on the field. His defense works very well when the front 4 can get pressure (which defense doesn’t?) but not so well if they can’t.
 

With Von being out, I don’t see any other playmakers on D besides maybe Ed Oliver and occasionally Rousseau being able to step up and make a big play when it’s needed. Neither player is Von Miller caliber and if the defense has to blitz more to create pressure (which they will), that isn’t Frazier’s specialty, so the blitz packages will prolly suck and get picked up rather easily. It’s too late for an aggressive DC who knows how to disguise his blitzes very well. Chiefs fans b*tch and moan about Spags, but I’d prefer his style to Frazier if we don’t have at least one pass rushing demon.

The defense without Von was a paper Tiger, always wilted against top offenses, so technically nothing changes. It was always going to come down to how far the offense carries them and we’re going to find out shortly if Josh and the rest of the guys are up to the task.

Milano?  Poyer?  edmunds?  Tre’Davious?  Taron?
 

and yes, Rousseau and Oliver.  
 

To me, the key is Rousseau taking the next step.  He was good last year and has been dominant at times this year.  He looked great vs the pats after coming back from a high ankle sprain.  
 

He is better than Jerry was last year.  Our DTs are much better than last year.  Edmunds is much better than last year.  Milano was good, but now he’s the best in the business.  Poyer is doing Poyer things. Tredavious is back after a year.  Losing Hyde is big, but when comparing this years d to last users D, I think this years is better. Even without Von.  
 

Our O just has to continue to develop and hit stride come the playoffs like last year.  

[Joe Ferguson]

We should'nt worry about our DL. All the money was spent on defense and nothing on the offense.

[LyndonvilleBill]

I think Frazier just needs to dial up some plays from Phillips and Lawsons last seasons here. Then you have Oliver and Groot. Will definitely miss Von, but it's not like we don't have others that can step up a bit.

[Brand J]

23 minutes ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

Milano! The boy can flat out play and comes up big. #2 Taron Johnson. #3 Poyer.  

Sorry, I meant on the DL in terms of sacks. Those 3 you mentioned and also Tre White of yesteryear have proven more than capable of coming up with a big play on the backend when needed. 

[TampaBillsJunkie]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Sorry, I meant on the DL in terms of sacks. Those 3 you mentioned and also Tre White of yesteryear have proven more than capable of coming up with a big play on the backend when needed. 

In that case, we're screwed. I hope not, but Miller is a huge loss. He was the player that put this D over the top. We will not match that production. It's up to the offense to turn it on so they can't catch up.

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

Yes, the cap hit will suck, but it's not like the Bills lost Nick Bosa or Matthew Judon.

 

He was playing at a Jerry Hughes level.  A great player, but on the downward slope of his career. 

 

This is survivable and I don't think it hurts the Bills Superbowl chances much if at all.

 

Now excuse me while I pull my on flame resistant suit. 

 

 

 

Yeah, this is nonsense.

 

It will absolutely hurt. And Jerry Hughes? I snorted involuntarily as I read that. Hughes is very good. Miller is still playing great.

[Breakout Squad]

21 hours ago, Rico said:

He made great plays against the Chiefs, and that's good enough for me. Damn shame he got hurt against the Lions, I know we needed him with all the injuries but that's a game I would've preferred to see him sit.

He really seemed to come up with the clutch sack. 

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Imo.  We need to change our style of play and go all out aggressive offense.   Josh can handle it.   Wrs need to step the f up.

Imagine an alternative universe where we signed davante adams rather than Von Miller

[Norcalbillsfan]

I'd disagree that he was Hughes level. He's a pass rush force to be reckoned with and if it's in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship and you need a sack he's the guy.

 

But I will say this and it's not gonna be a popular statement but it's not going to hurt us as an overall defense that much. People can grab their torches but von has hurt us in some serious key moments because he is all about sacks and tends to completely sell out on the pass rush and will abandon his rush lanes. Against the jets on massive 4th down, von went 10 yards up feild on a rush, Wilson went through vons vacated lane easy 1st jets win. Vikings, von got reached by a TE, loses containment, easy first down, vikings win. Now obviously von didn't singlehandedly lose these games, but these are just examples of how he didn't do his job and it cost the bills in huge situations. 

I think it's a loss more so in the locker room as a leader, and as I stated before that 1 play you really need that sack he's the one you want on the feild. But overall affect on the defense I don't think it's near the hit we took losing tre white last year.

 

[billsfan89]

10 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Von was playing at a high level but the real issue is the drop off from Von to Epenesa is astounding.  Hughes was capable but Epenesa is horrible. Hope he proves me wrong with this short stretch to start and play significant meaningful snaps.

 

I thought AJ played decently against New England hopefully that is a positive development. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

This is a horse manure take for one simple reason - Von's game-winning contribution against the Chiefs alone was worth 3 net wins from a conference head to head POV vs the Chiefs:

 

+ 1 for the Bills win

- 1 for the Chiefs loss

+ 1 for the tie-breaker

 

And that's before we factor in his contributions in wins against the Rams, Titans and Ravens.

 

IF we win out (which will be difficult), then the season-ending injury notwithstanding, Von would have made a substantial contribution to the Bills getting the number 1 seed.

 

 

 

 

[papazoid]

Miller ranks third in the NFL in quarterback pressures  behind Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons  and Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon 

 

Miller leads the Bills in sacks (eight), pass rush win rate (23.7%) and pressure percentage (14.6%).

 

third best in the league is ELITE. he will be missed

 

the only saving grace is that we have some potential quality depth behind him.

[L Ron Burgundy]

8 hours ago, Chaos said:

Imagine an alternative universe where we signed davante adams rather than Von Miller

Yeah, I really think there's some disappointment in a few areas on offense (not that we're bad overall).

 

They expected big things from Gabe and it hasn't worked out.  Had we gotten Davonte in an imaginary scenario we probably wouldn't have punted this year. 

[wakingfane]

Yeah I haven't seen a pass rusher that good in a Bills uni since Bruce Smith... Just saying.

[DrPJax]

6 hours ago, papazoid said:

Miller ranks third in the NFL in quarterback pressures  behind Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons  and Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon 

 

Miller leads the Bills in sacks (eight), pass rush win rate (23.7%) and pressure percentage (14.6%).

 

third best in the league is ELITE. he will be missed

 

the only saving grace is that we have some potential quality depth behind him.

Well said!  

[Coldfronts]

One word "Groot"  he is the Bills future and future HOFer

[jethro_tull]

von has 8 sacks and 10 tackles for a loss in 12 games.  pretty fricken good.  

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I actually think he was playing not to get injured and we all know what happens when you try to do that. When we see him in the playoffs I have a feeling that we will see that next level of play from him. 

[ArtVandalay]

On 12/7/2022 at 10:31 PM, ChicagoRic said:

Yes, the cap hit will suck, but it's not like the Bills lost Nick Bosa or Matthew Judon.

 

He was playing at a Jerry Hughes level.  A great player, but on the downward slope of his career. 

 

This is survivable and I don't think it hurts the Bills Superbowl chances much if at all.

 

Now excuse me while I pull my on flame resistant suit. 

 

That's because Bosa and Judon have way more strategic minds moving them around as a chess piece. 

 

Von sits on the edge and told to just rush straight ahead/protect the edge every play. 

[Buffalo716]

On 12/8/2022 at 8:18 PM, Chaos said:

Imagine an alternative universe where we signed davante adams rather than Von Miller

Ummm Davante Adams was traded

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Ummm Davante Adams was traded

fair point. Imagine a world were we traded for Davante Adams instead of signing Von Miller. 

[Nextmanup]

On 12/7/2022 at 10:31 PM, ChicagoRic said:

Yes, the cap hit will suck, but it's not like the Bills lost Nick Bosa or Matthew Judon.

 

He was playing at a Jerry Hughes level.  A great player, but on the downward slope of his career. 

 

This is survivable and I don't think it hurts the Bills Superbowl chances much if at all.

 

Now excuse me while I pull my on flame resistant suit. 

 

I totally agree with you.  His impact on games is greatly overestimated by fans.

 

Of the really big names to lose for the year, he would be my first choice.

 

If Josh or Diggs go down, we're done.  Von?  We'll be fine.

 

 

[BarleyNY]

23 hours ago, jethro_tull said:

von has 8 sacks and 10 tackles for a loss in 12 games.  pretty fricken good.  

 

Exactly. He was our most impactful defensive player before injury - and that’s saying something with how well several others are playing. 

[Coldfronts]

I would have expected the Bills to be in the top 5 with von but, they do not even make the list.

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Coldfronts

[HappyDays]

There's no downplaying the loss, but the good news is Rousseau is playing tremendous this year. That softens the blow.

 

 

You could argue that the defensive personnel this year is still better than what we fielded in the divisional round last year, even accounting for Hyde's and Miller's injuries. Rousseau and Edmunds have both taken a big step forward in their development. We added DaQuan Jones, a healthy Tre White, and better DE depth in Shaq Lawson. Ed Oliver has recently been playing the best ball of his career.

 

Again you can't downplay the loss of Von Miller but it's not an excuse if the season falls apart. The rest of the team is still plenty good enough to win it all.

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by HappyDays

[dakrider]

4th quarter and in playoff games, thats when you really need guys like Von Miller. If he was easily replaceable, the Bills wouldn't have signed him in the first place.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

What more could Von have done to be considered great? He was averaging nearly 1 sack a game, league leaders in tackle for loss, unmeasurable impact on the locker room, big part in the reason why Boogie, Groot and AJ had 9.5 sacks between the them prior to his injury.

 

Will be interesting to see how many sacks Groot and the DEs can tally without him. So far it’s 1.