The Bills have owned TEs this season. Now comes Kelce.

[Rubes]

Like him or not, a nice article from Tim Graham over at The Athletic.

 

How the Bills plan to tackle their next tight end challenge: Travis Kelce

 

A couple excerpts:

Quote

 

Through five games, Buffalo ranks first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends while having guarded three of the NFL’s most-targeted. Buffalo also is among the last 10 defenses not to have let a tight end score.

Tight ends are averaging 7.0 targets, 4.2 catches, 33.8 yards and 2.4 first downs a game against the Bills.

The average NFL defense is surrendering 6.8 targets, 4.7 catches, 48.3 yards and 2.5 first downs, though further context makes the Bills’ stinginess remarkable.

 

Quote

 

Even once Rob Gronkowski mercifully left the conference, Buffalo over the past couple seasons has had problems stopping the likes of Hayden Hurst, Jack Doyle, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry and Jacob Hollister.

As you’d imagine, higher-profile tight ends such as Kelce, Gesicki and Darren Waller have had gargantuan games.

How have the Bills deployed their defense differently to improve?

Poyer, Milano and Johnson each delivered the same answer.

“Nothing,” Milano said. “I don’t know if there’s anything specific. We haven’t been doubling anybody or game-planning.

 

 

Can the Bills contain him? They haven't so far...

 

Quote

In Kelce’s past four games against Buffalo — a regular-season and playoff game each of the past two years — he has 41 targets, 32 receptions, 336 yards and six TDs.

 

I hope they continue their current success...

 

[Alphadawg7]

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

 

Very logical. I just hope you're right!

 

[TBBills]

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

[dorquemada]

Just now, TBBills said:

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

 

Agreed.  Disrupt his timing, hopefully enough to let Von cause Kermit some happy feet

[Rc2catch]

He’s the focal point of the offense. 
I thought the raiders were kinda smart to put Ferrell out wide to try and jam him. He got a penalty lol but I still liked the idea. 
I’d love to see buffalo send Rousseau around to follow him and try and jam him at the line. (Of course if they practiced it and Rousseau could do the job) 

He can jam Kelce and then either rush or spy Mahomes. Pass rush is great and all but I think we know that ball is coming out pretty quick. And every game I can remember Mahomes has gotten easy first down runs escaping the pocket with no spy. 

[Big Turk]

And then along comes Mary...

 

 

[CSBill]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

And then along comes Mary...

 

Cool song

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I’d love to see our “elite” TE make some plays that impact the game …

[pigpen65]

All comes down to getting a rush without blitzing. 

[Haslett_Stomp]

IIRC Siran Neal was instrumental in keeping Kelce in check in the first KC game last year.  It will be interesting to see whether they leverage the same strategy for this game.  I believe Tre White was shadowing Hill for most of that game.

[Coach Tuesday]

58 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

He’s the focal point of the offense. 
I thought the raiders were kinda smart to put Ferrell out wide to try and jam him. He got a penalty lol but I still liked the idea. 
I’d love to see buffalo send Rousseau around to follow him and try and jam him at the line. (Of course if they practiced it and Rousseau could do the job) 

He can jam Kelce and then either rush or spy Mahomes. Pass rush is great and all but I think we know that ball is coming out pretty quick. And every game I can remember Mahomes has gotten easy first down runs escaping the pocket with no spy. 

The Ferrell play was amazing - he basically clocked Kelce in the face at the snap!

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

 

I don't mind Kelce having catches on Sunday as long as we don't give him anything deep. He is averaging the lowest yards per reception of his career this year which I think is partly that teams are playing their defense a little higher without the threat of Hill to burn them. Let Kelce catch the odd check down, convert the odd 1st down, but don't let him beat you down the seam. See if Mahomes can sustain long drives dinking and dunking... because when he isn't throwing to Kelce he is throwing to kinda average WRs.

[Simon Says]

The addition of Miller allows the Bills to rush just 4 defenders. That leaves more coverage on Kelce

[PrimeTime101]

Bump him on the line EVERY time. no clean releases with second tier help at the 7+ yards from a fs. then you have to man on the ends with another safety deep.  if the QB was not named Mahomes, then I would say easy. but it is what it is.

[mjt328]

Interesting numbers.  They haven't exactly played a bunch of scrubs at the position either. 

 

Mark Andrews is possibly the next best TE in the NFL after Travis Kelce.

The others are Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth.  All guys capable of making plays in the passing game.

 

As I said in another post... there is a domino effect when you upgrade the D-Line.  Not only are they getting a better pass rush and more stops in the run game, but they are really freeing up the Linebackers at the second level.  When Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson (we can throw him into this discussion) don't have to worry about what is happening at the line of scrimmage, it gives them an extra step in coverage.  

 

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, Rubes said:

Tight ends are averaging 7.0 targets, 4.2 catches, 33.8 yards and 2.4 first downs a game against the Bills.

The average NFL defense is surrendering 6.8 targets, 4.7 catches, 48.3 yards and 2.5 first downs, though further context makes the Bills’ stinginess remarkable.

 

So they average about 15 less yards, & basically everything else is the same. That's nice, but it's hardly indicative of some huge success figuring out TE's.

 

And we all know Kelce is just a different kind of TE anyway. One of the best pass-catching TE's in history, just under Tony Gonzales, Jason Witten & Gronk (Chiefs are so lucky to have had 2 of those guys), and he's been great against us.

 

2020: 

Reg. Season - 5 rec / 65 yards / 2 TD's

Playoffs - 13 rec / 118 yards / 2 TD's

 

2021:

Reg. Season - 6 rec / 57 yards / 1 TD

Playoffs - 8 rec / 96 yards / 1 TD

 

So I guess we can be happy we cut his TD's down from 2 x game to 1 x game! But realistically, Kelce will likely get his. We just have to hope others don't step up & that we can at least make it difficult for him in the redzone. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

Interesting numbers.  They haven't exactly played a bunch of scrubs at the position either. 

 

Mark Andrews is possibly the next best TE in the NFL after Travis Kelce.

The others are Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth.  All guys capable of making plays in the passing game.

 

As I said in another post... there is a domino effect when you upgrade the D-Line.  Not only are they getting a better pass rush and more stops in the run game, but they are really freeing up the Linebackers at the second level.  When Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson (we can throw him into this discussion) don't have to worry about what is happening at the line of scrimmage, it gives them an extra step in coverage.  

 

 

Giesicki is kinda a forgotten man in the Fins offense.

[Wayne Cubed]

Kelce is going to get his, it’s crazy to think he won’t. But to @GunnerBill point don’t let him beat you big. 

[ChrisWatson#21]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

I still can’t believe that in the 13 second debacle not 1 Bills coach told the defense to hold him and Tyreek at the LOS and trade the 5 yard penalty for 5 seconds off the clock🙄

[Rico]

I posted this in another thread, but this is how you stop Kelce:

 

[mabden]

2 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Can the Bills contain him? They haven't so far...

 

 

Whenever there is a short yardage, goal line, red zone situation; the Bills double team Kelce on the line to keep him there.

[FilthyBeast]

It seems the obvious strategy playing the Chiefs offense this year would be to take Kelce out of the game and let someone else beat you. But there's a reason this hasn't worked and the Chiefs are the #1 offense in the NFL through 5 games.

 

Don't be shocked if Mahomes rushes for 2 or 3 TD's in the redzone in this game because of all the attention we are likely to give Kelce's way. This was also an issue in the playoff game last year in terms of Mahomes beating us with his legs.

[frostbitmic]

1 hour ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

IIRC Siran Neal was instrumental in keeping Kelce in check in the first KC game last year.  It will be interesting to see whether they leverage the same strategy for this game.  I believe Tre White was shadowing Hill for most of that game.

I think I'd put our tallest CB in front front of him to play the ball and our hardest hitting Safety or Neal behind him ready to him hard in the lower back at every opportunity. Slowing him down at the snap is a good idea too.

 

Seems Kelce is the only receiver on the Chiefs being used, force them to go elsewhere.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Interesting numbers.  They haven't exactly played a bunch of scrubs at the position either. 

 

Mark Andrews is possibly the next best TE in the NFL after Travis Kelce.

The others are Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth.  All guys capable of making plays in the passing game.

 

As I said in another post... there is a domino effect when you upgrade the D-Line.  Not only are they getting a better pass rush and more stops in the run game, but they are really freeing up the Linebackers at the second level.  When Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson (we can throw him into this discussion) don't have to worry about what is happening at the line of scrimmage, it gives them an extra step in coverage.  

 

You forgot Kittle

Edited October 14, 2022 by Ethan in Cleveland

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I beleive it was Darrelle Revis who said, you cover elite TEs with CBs. Nobody has the size and speed combo to hang with Kelce even Edmunds. Edmunds has the size but does not have the coverage skill to hang with Kelce. But several CBs can run with him and cover him. 

Play him man to man with a corner and a deep shell for everyone else. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

He’s the focal point of the offense. 
I thought the raiders were kinda smart to put Ferrell out wide to try and jam him. He got a penalty lol but I still liked the idea. 
I’d love to see buffalo send Rousseau around to follow him and try and jam him at the line. (Of course if they practiced it and Rousseau could do the job) 

He can jam Kelce and then either rush or spy Mahomes. Pass rush is great and all but I think we know that ball is coming out pretty quick. And every game I can remember Mahomes has gotten easy first down runs escaping the pocket with no spy. 

Don’t hold your breath. The bills— for reasons that remain unknown to me—never jam Kelce. they always seem to give him a free release. 
 

I always point to a saints/chiefs game from a few years ago, where the saints put a DE wide and jammed the heck out of kelce all game, and it worked brilliantly. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

2 hours ago, TBBills said:

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

 

I think this is the answer. When I played football (Edge rusher) we did a summer scrimmage against a team we would play later that year. The TE killed us in the scrimmage.

 

When we played them in the season instead of rushing the passer I mirrored the TE and never let him get off of the line of scrimmage (they never flexed him out). We lost the game 13-6 but we didn't get our asses kicked like we did in the scrimmage.

 

The downside here is that the person you dedicate to this strategy won't factor as much in the pass rush. But if Mahomes can't get the ball to Kelce maybe that's the greater good.

[Nextmanup]

4 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

 

I think this is the answer. When I played football (Edge rusher) we did a summer scrimmage against a team we would play later that year. The TE killed us in the scrimmage.

 

When we played them in the season instead of rushing the passer I mirrored the TE and never let him get off of the line of scrimmage (they never flexed him out). We lost the game 13-6 but we didn't get our asses kicked like we did in the scrimmage.

 

The downside here is that the person you dedicate to this strategy won't factor as much in the pass rush. But if Mahomes can't get the ball to Kelce maybe that's the greater good.

This is it!  Even put TWO guys on him at the LOS and just bracket him! 

 

Make it impossible for him to go anywhere and just remove him from the play.  Let Mahomes beat us with someone else.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

27 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I beleive it was Darrelle Revis who said, you cover elite TEs with CBs. Nobody has the size and speed combo to hang with Kelce even Edmunds. Edmunds has the size but does not have the coverage skill to hang with Kelce. But several CBs can run with him and cover him. 

Play him man to man with a corner and a deep shell for everyone else. 

This has been my line of thinking ever since the Bills frustrated Gronk with Tre White. If you can afford to put a guy like Elam on Kelce, I would try that.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

This has been my line of thinking ever since the Bills frustrated Gronk with Tre White. If you can afford to put a guy like Elam on Kelce, I would try that.

if you want to go way back, the Bills used to do this against Tony Gonzalez. They would cover him with Antoine Winfield. 
 

Elam would be good on Kelce— you need a grabby, physical corner to a TE. 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

And then along comes Mary...

 

 

and….The wind cries Mary….

[Nitro]

Beichick dealt with good TEs by bracketing them.  It would be a good move to get physical at the line of scrimmage with him.  Mix up coverage and keep Mahomes off balance,  

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 hours ago, Rubes said:

Like him or not, a nice article from Tim Graham over at The Athletic.

 

How the Bills plan to tackle their next tight end challenge: Travis Kelce

 

A couple excerpts:

 

Can the Bills contain him? They haven't so far...

 

 

I hope they continue their current success...

 

You flip the U and the E in your name, and Rubes becomes Rebus.  The Kelce Rebus is then solved for.

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

I think the Bills will do the same thing as what they are saying.  They will keep the entire field in front of them and reduce big plays.   Without that outside speed, the Bills will take some chances in coverage of Kelce.  Other than that, the Bills front four will determine whether they can disrupt Mahome's timing.   It is going to be a great ball game.  Go Bills !

[boyst]

5 hours ago, Rico said:

I posted this in another thread, but this is how you stop Kelce:

 

Kelce needs to put on a dress if he's gonna get flagged for that. 

[mjt328]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:11 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Don’t hold your breath. The bills— for reasons that remain unknown to me—never jam Kelce. they always seem to give him a free release. 
 

I always point to a saints/chiefs game from a few years ago, where the saints put a DE wide and jammed the heck out of kelce all game, and it worked brilliantly. 

 

After watching yesterday's game, I'm convinced nothing is going to change significantly in how the Bills defense plays against the Chiefs.

 

The Bills strategy is to keep everything underneath, and make sure they don't get beat over the top.  Even without Tyreek Hill to worry about.  They aren't going to blitz a lot.  They aren't going to double-team the tight end.  They aren't going to chip him at the line.  The are going to go 95% nickel defense (some dime) and try to pressure the QB with 4 guys.

 

Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier believe that by constantly forcing them into long drives, they will make just enough mistakes where our offense can outscore them.  The Chiefs played very good, but Mahomes did throw two interceptions.  We made two unforced errors (both on Isaiah McKenzie) and still ended up winning at the end.

 

[Rochesterfan]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

After watching yesterday's game, I'm convinced nothing is going to change significantly in how the Bills defense plays against the Chiefs.

 

The Bills strategy is to keep everything underneath, and make sure they don't get beat over the top.  Even without Tyreek Hill to worry about.  They aren't going to blitz a lot.  They aren't going to double-team the tight end.  They aren't going to chip him at the line.  The are going to go 95% nickel defense (some dime) and try to pressure the QB with 4 guys.

 

Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier believe that by constantly forcing them into long drives, they will make just enough mistakes where our offense can outscore them.  The Chiefs played very good, but Mahomes did throw two interceptions.  We made two unforced errors (both on Isaiah McKenzie) and still ended up winning at the end.

 

 

Except - I think they did play different - especially in the second half.

 

They are still going to play off and try to keep things in front, but the switched it up using Milano as a spy/attacker and created frustration in Mahomes - who took a couple of hits from Milano leading to the pick.

 

I just don’t think they care if Kelce gets 1 catch or 10 catches - they just want to tackle him immediately after the catch and they did that.

 

The important piece was stopping the run and getting pressure and they did both.  Then using Milano so that when Mahomes did slip through a crack - he was under attack created a new twist.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

14 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

After watching yesterday's game, I'm convinced nothing is going to change significantly in how the Bills defense plays against the Chiefs.

 

The Bills strategy is to keep everything underneath, and make sure they don't get beat over the top.  Even without Tyreek Hill to worry about.  They aren't going to blitz a lot.  They aren't going to double-team the tight end.  They aren't going to chip him at the line.  The are going to go 95% nickel defense (some dime) and try to pressure the QB with 4 guys.

 

Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier believe that by constantly forcing them into long drives, they will make just enough mistakes where our offense can outscore them.  The Chiefs played very good, but Mahomes did throw two interceptions.  We made two unforced errors (both on Isaiah McKenzie) and still ended up winning at the end.

 

Very well summarized. It’s infuriating to watch as a fan but I have to hand it to them for sticking with it. 

[Real McClappy]

38 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Except - I think they did play different - especially in the second half.

 

They are still going to play off and try to keep things in front, but the switched it up using Milano as a spy/attacker and created frustration in Mahomes - who took a couple of hits from Milano leading to the pick.

 

I just don’t think they care if Kelce gets 1 catch or 10 catches - they just want to tackle him immediately after the catch and they did that.

 

The important piece was stopping the run and getting pressure and they did both.  Then using Milano so that when Mahomes did slip through a crack - he was under attack created a new twist.

 

 

Bills D line did and overall great job keeping Mahomes contained which struggled with in the past a ton.