Bills FA rumors thread

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

What I recall saying was show me how they are demonstrably better at the end because they didn't do that last year. Some of you guys want everything to be sunshine and roses and to canonize Beane. They are better than they have been in a long time, they aren't good enough and need to get better. You go ahead and be satisfied if you want to. I'm not and the mistakes they made last year cost them. You want a mistake? Wasting money on Emmanuel Sanders that could have been spent on a corner. A corner they needed at the end of the Chiefs game.

I don't think anyone is saying they don't need to get better in certain areas, clearly they do. They have started addressing it today with an upgrade at G. A short term upgrade, but an upgrade.

 

It's not like they only have the first day of F/A to address other areas. 

[BobbyC81]

38 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

If the version of the Rams that showed up against CIN played the Bills in the Super Bowl, Bills win with an average effort themselves, of that I have no doubt. If first half TB Rams showed up against KC Bills, that game couldve gone either way. 

I don’t understand why people continue to make this baseless claim.

[TheWeatherMan]

33 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Which might not have been an issue if there hadn't been a plague, poor planning on Beane's part there.

If Star didn’t opt out in 2020 he would be off the books.  

[Brand J]

17 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

I don’t understand why people continue to make this baseless claim.

Perhaps because it’s fun to speculate on a message board…? 

[HurlyBurly51]

1 hour ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

Came here for FA rumors, instead got 3 pages of guys fighting over conjectured, hypothetical stances on playoff games that didn’t happen. 

Where’s the moderation?  This has gone off the rails and wayyyy off topic

[GunnerBill]

At least we dodged the Evan Engram bullet. 

 

$9m. Lol. 

[purple haze]

53 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Where’s the moderation?  This has gone off the rails and wayyyy off topic

It was off topic a long time ago and now the complainers are out to do their usual.  I don’t why folks don’t simply ignore them.

[GunnerBill]

In case folks are bothered re. Comp picks (because I know it is a popular topic around here) based on 2021 values and what we know about the contracts signed:

 

Outgoings

Mitch Trubisky at $7m AAV is likely 5th round value (slim chance of becoming a 4th with incentives earned)

Harrison Phillips at $6.15m AAV is also likely 5th round value

 

Incomings

Tim Settle at $4.5m AAV is likely 6th round value

We don't yet have details on Jones but if his contract value was around the same as his 1 year deal in Carolina ($4m AAV) that would also be likely 6th round value.

 

As it stands after day 1 the Bills would earn zero comp picks in 2022.

[BillsFanForever19]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

In case folks are bothered re. Comp picks (because I know it is a popular topic around here) based on 2021 values and what we know about the contracts signed:

 

Outgoings

Mitch Trubisky at $7m AAV is likely 5th round value (slim chance of becoming a 4th with incentives earned)

Harrison Phillips at $6.15m AAV is also likely 5th round value

 

Incomings

Tim Settle at $4.5m AAV is likely 6th round value

We don't yet have details on Jones but if his contract value was around the same as his 1 year deal in Carolina ($4m AAV) that would also be likely 6th round value.

 

As it stands after day 1 the Bills would earn zero comp picks in 2022.

 

Comp picks are cool when your roster is set in a way that you can afford to lose players and not replace them. But when you have holes on your team that you need to fill, you fill them with competent people. You don't go into a season with holes on your team so that you can get some mid round picks the following year. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

And they lost. Get better. Don't tell me. Show me. They drafted 3 stiffs at DE to fix the pass rush but hey they're addressing the problem so that makes it ok 

This is a horrifically bad take. So unless the players they draft turn out to be studs, the approach is wrong?

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Comp picks are cool when your roster is set in a way that you can afford to lose players and not replace them. But when you have holes on your team that you need to fill, you fill them with competent people. You don't go into a season with holes on your team so that you can get some mid round picks the following year. 

 

I don't really care about comp picks. A lot of fans do. I just can't sleep so decided to look at roughly what value they moves would have got last year. 

 

On the general premise I think those that do care about comp picks will always be disappointed because Beane will never see a roster he doesn't want to add veteran depth too. We are into free agent cycle 5 with this GM and his MO is pretty clear. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

In case folks are bothered re. Comp picks (because I know it is a popular topic around here) based on 2021 values and what we know about the contracts signed:

 

Outgoings

Mitch Trubisky at $7m AAV is likely 5th round value (slim chance of becoming a 4th with incentives earned)

Harrison Phillips at $6.15m AAV is also likely 5th round value

 

Incomings

Tim Settle at $4.5m AAV is likely 6th round value

We don't yet have details on Jones but if his contract value was around the same as his 1 year deal in Carolina ($4m AAV) that would also be likely 6th round value.

 

As it stands after day 1 the Bills would earn zero comp picks in 2022.

Will be interested to see what happens with Wallace. Addison and maybe Hughes could still sign elsewhere to get to net negative.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Comp picks are cool when your roster is set in a way that you can afford to lose players and not replace them. But when you have holes on your team that you need to fill, you fill them with competent people. You don't go into a season with holes on your team so that you can get some mid round picks the following year. 

You can fill holes and still remain net negative by signing your own guys or as Beane did signing an OG that was cut.  Of course there is little point to doing so when the most you can get is a 6th or 7th round pick.  But this year is different.  Trubisky was on the market and QB dollars are high and he stands a very good chance of playing in Pittsburgh.  And then of course there is Wallace.  Starting CBs get high dollar deals.  It will be interesting to see what the rest of the league sees in him and what his market ends up being.  If he signs a big contract it might net them as high as a third but probably a 4th is more realistic.  

Teams that are up against the cap need the extra comp picks to fill the holes that the inevitable salary cap cuts will create.  It's not make or break a team but just like every other aspect of team deals it needs to be managed.  Beane botched a 3rd round pick when Gilmore walked by signing/keeping a bunch of stiffs.  After that there really has not been a significant player that left on a big contract to make a difference. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Beane botched a 3rd round pick when Gilmore walked by signing/keeping a bunch of stiffs.  After that there really has not been a significant player that left on a big contract to make a difference. 

 

Beane wasn't here for the signings. And it was hard to cut the stiffs because the roster was so bad. But agreed, you should never miss out on a 3rd round comp pick or a 4th round comp pick because you signed a load of 7th round value guys which the Bills did in 2017. Hyde and Poyer cancelled out Woods and Goodwin and nobody would complain there, but a bunch of journeymen 7th rounders cancelled out Gilmore. 

[davefan66]

3 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

 

They're SB contenders sure, but going from perennial playoff team to winning a SB is a bigger leap than people understand.  And right now, Buffalo is taking the pedestrian and safe approach consistent with a risk averse HC.  

There is a lot of FA signing to be done and I hope the Bills land the couple of guys they need to push them over the top.  They need to gain ground to get past the other AFC powerhouses.  I know the cap is a problem, but gotta figure it out.

 

Me concern seeing what they have done so far is losing core locker room guys.  Feliciano, “Horrible” Harry were considered locker room guys.  Yeah, you may sign cheaper dudes that play at, or exceed, the level of play of whom they are replacing.  But chemistry is a huge part of a team.  From the top guy, to the last guy on the roster.  Still have many of our own to tender or sign.

 

The cap is a problem for them this year in having the ability to sign the big names.  The cap will make a nice jump next few seasons, and either they use that money now or wait until the next few years.  

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

You can fill holes and still remain net negative by signing your own guys or as Beane did signing an OG that was cut.  Of course there is little point to doing so when the most you can get is a 6th or 7th round pick.  But this year is different.  Trubisky was on the market and QB dollars are high and he stands a very good chance of playing in Pittsburgh.  And then of course there is Wallace.  Starting CBs get high dollar deals.  It will be interesting to see what the rest of the league sees in him and what his market ends up being.  If he signs a big contract it might net them as high as a third but probably a 4th is more realistic.  

Teams that are up against the cap need the extra comp picks to fill the holes that the inevitable salary cap cuts will create.  It's not make or break a team but just like every other aspect of team deals it needs to be managed.  Beane botched a 3rd round pick when Gilmore walked by signing/keeping a bunch of stiffs.  After that there really has not been a significant player that left on a big contract to make a difference. 

 

I just feel that possible mid to late round picks that you won't be able to use until over a year later shouldn't be a deciding factor on improving your team in the now. If it works out that way, great. But Beane shouldn't be not making moves that he wants to make or moves that could help the team because we might get an extra pick or picks on Day 2 or 3 a year down the road.

Edited March 15, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Beane wasn't here for the signings. And it was hard to cut the stiffs because the roster was so bad. But agreed, you should never miss out on a 3rd round comp pick or a 4th round comp pick because you signed a load of 7th round value guys which the Bills did in 2017. Hyde and Poyer cancelled out Woods and Goodwin and nobody would complain there, but a bunch of journeymen 7th rounders cancelled out Gilmore. 

You are correct about the timing of the signings, but If I recall all he had to do was cut Streeter and Ducasse during the season. Both players were terrible and could have been replaced with any street free agent at the time. Maybe I’m misremembering the players. 

[nucci]

1 hour ago, davefan66 said:

There is a lot of FA signing to be done and I hope the Bills land the couple of guys they need to push them over the top.  They need to gain ground to get past the other AFC powerhouses.  I know the cap is a problem, but gotta figure it out.

 

Me concern seeing what they have done so far is losing core locker room guys.  Feliciano, “Horrible” Harry were considered locker room guys.  Yeah, you may sign cheaper dudes that play at, or exceed, the level of play of whom they are replacing.  But chemistry is a huge part of a team.  From the top guy, to the last guy on the roster.  Still have many of our own to tender or sign.

 

The cap is a problem for them this year in having the ability to sign the big names.  The cap will make a nice jump next few seasons, and either they use that money now or wait until the next few years.  

So is talent. All teams have roster turnover every year...losing a couple of backups is not going to hurt this teams "chemistry"

[davefan66]

8 minutes ago, nucci said:

So is talent. All teams have roster turnover every year...losing a couple of backups is not going to hurt this teams "chemistry"

Gotta have both.  Hope the cap allows for the couple of signings we need to push us over the top.  
 

My concern is the they can’t lose the locker room by allowing guys who have performed to get their money elsewhere.  Yeah, this years free agency has shown guys just want the money.  Some going from good teams to bad to follow the contract.  Just feel this team is built different.  Feel they are all about the team aspect and playing for each other.  
 

We will see.

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

You are correct about the timing of the signings, but If I recall all he had to do was cut Streeter and Ducasse during the season. Both players were terrible and could have been replaced with any street free agent at the time. Maybe I’m misremembering the players. 

 

Yea I think he'd have had to do more than that. Streeter was never on the regular season roster. He'd have had to cut Lonnie Johnson who was out starting slot corner, Ducasse who was a starting guard and Andre Holmes who was a starting receiver plus either Ryan Davis (backup edge) or Pat DiMarco. 

 

Four players (at least 3 starters) from a team in the playoff hunt to break a 17 year drought.... that woulda been a tough sell to the locker room IMO.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I know he's not popular here but i'de be really happy to go with Clowney for a year as the vet DE.

[julian]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I know he's not popular here but i'de be really happy to go with Clowney for a year as the vet DE.

Not popular here means there’s a good chance it’s the decision.

[4merper4mer]

7 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I’m shocked that your computer wasn’t confiscated after the last thread you started.

Groupthink rules so it got shut down.  I wonder if an apology will follow if it happens.   I guess I could have started a thread about Edmunds kidnapping the Lindbergh baby to stay in line.

[SectionC3]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't really care about comp picks. A lot of fans do. I just can't sleep so decided to look at roughly what value they moves would have got last year. 

 

On the general premise I think those that do care about comp picks will always be disappointed because Beane will never see a roster he doesn't want to add veteran depth too. We are into free agent cycle 5 with this GM and his MO is pretty clear. 

I’m generally with you.  I don’t believe in wasting opportunity (eg cancelling a pick for, say, Stephon Gilmore by signing a bunch of JAGs).   But the DT signings are not that.  I’d much rather load up now for a super bowl

run than worry about having an extra Marquez Stevenson or Tommy Doyle a year from now.  

[ExWNYer]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

You are correct about the timing of the signings, but If I recall all he had to do was cut Streeter and Ducasse during the season. Both players were terrible and could have been replaced with any street free agent at the time. Maybe I’m misremembering the players. 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think he'd have had to do more than that. Streeter was never on the regular season roster. He'd have had to cut Lonnie Johnson who was out starting slot corner, Ducasse who was a starting guard and Andre Holmes who was a starting receiver plus either Ryan Davis (backup edge) or Pat DiMarco. 

 

Four players (at least 3 starters) from a team in the playoff hunt to break a 17 year drought.... that woulda been a tough sell to the locker room IMO.

Only players whose contracts have expired qualify for the compensatory formula. Players who are cut by the team are ineligible in this calculation.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

Only players whose contracts have expired qualify for the compensatory formula. Players who are cut by the team are ineligible in this calculation.

 

Not what I mean. You can stop a player counting against your signings if you cut him again by week 7 I think it is. Only if they are on your roster after that point are they confirmed as counting. 

[ExWNYer]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not what I mean. You can stop a player counting against your signings if you cut him again by week 7 I think it is. Only if they are on your roster after that point are they confirmed as counting. 

 

Noted. The other post quoted above yours was specifically referring to receiving a comp pick. I don't believe I misinterpreted that as well but, if so, mea culpa. My point about compensation is correct.

[SectionC3]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not what I mean. You can stop a player counting against your signings if you cut him again by week 7 I think it is. Only if they are on your roster after that point are they confirmed as counting. 

That’s one of the reasons why Andre Holmes was released mid season a few years ago. 

[thenorthremembers]

2 hours ago, davefan66 said:

Gotta have both.  Hope the cap allows for the couple of signings we need to push us over the top.  
 

My concern is the they can’t lose the locker room by allowing guys who have performed to get their money elsewhere.  Yeah, this years free agency has shown guys just want the money.  Some going from good teams to bad to follow the contract.  Just feel this team is built different.  Feel they are all about the team aspect and playing for each other.  
 

We will see.

But whats your definition of perform?   Both Feliciano and Phillips played less than 75% of their games while in Buffalo.   They may have been good locker room guys, and may have played ok when they were actually available, but I wouldnt call that performing.   If I miss 25% of the days I am supposed to be at work, I doubt my boss gives me a raise to stay.   

 

The Bills have very little cap space.  They need to sign guys who are available to play football on Sunday.  If you take a look at Jones, Settle, and Saffold you'll notice those guys havent missed a lot of games in the near term.    Every year there is turnover.  I'll start to worry when they cut and lose guys who are good in the lockerroom, consistent performers, and dont collect their paychecks from the bench.

[Coach Tuesday]

It seems like “13 Seconds” has become a Rorschach Test around here… either you think the roster had everything it needed to win that game and would’ve gone on to win the Super Bowl, so there’s nothing wrong with “running it back,” or you think they were 1-2 difference makers away from getting it done and should be aggressively trying to find that missing piece.

 

I fall into the second category.  The thing is, Beane’s post-season PC indicated he did too - he talked about needing to add speed and YAC to the offense, improving the pass rush, etc. - maybe you can find all of that later on in free agency or in the draft.  Let’s hope he does.  But at some point you cannot be content with just staying put, other teams are aggressively trying to improve, too, and we need to stay in the arms race to stay on top.  The offense needs more weapons, the secondary needs more speed, and the pass rush needs a closer - I cannot get excited about changing out veteran DTs and guards on Day 1 of free agency.  Go get the real difference-makers and let’s win this thing.

[Brennan Huff]

13 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Big trade will come tomorrow 

* I am in no way claiming to have any inside information. Just a prediction. Sorry to have mislead some of you

[frostbitmic]

What's going on Beane ?... What happened to the Beasley to Carolina for McCaffrey trade ?

 

It had to be true because I read it on the interwebs, wait, it has to be double true because I read it here Saturday that the trade would happen in 48 hours. That was 24 hours ago. I'm so distraught.

 

🤑

[DCOrange]

Fwiw re the comp picks, OverTheCap projects that Trubisky and Phillips would both net 6th round picks if we hadn’t already likely cancelled them out with the two DTs. 

[Doc]

33 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It seems like “13 Seconds” has become a Rorschach Test around here… either you think the roster had everything it needed to win that game and would’ve gone on to win the Super Bowl, so there’s nothing wrong with “running it back,” or you think they were 1-2 difference makers away from getting it done and should be aggressively trying to find that missing piece.

 

I fall into the second category.  The thing is, Beane’s post-season PC indicated he did too - he talked about needing to add speed and YAC to the offense, improving the pass rush, etc. - maybe you can find all of that later on in free agency or in the draft.  Let’s hope he does.  But at some point you cannot be content with just staying put, other teams are aggressively trying to improve, too, and we need to stay in the arms race to stay on top.  The offense needs more weapons, the secondary needs more speed, and the pass rush needs a closer - I cannot get excited about changing out veteran DTs and guards on Day 1 of free agency.  Go get the real difference-makers and let’s win this thing.

Again, you realize FA hasn’t even officially started yet, the draft hasn’t been held yet and we haven’t hit the 2nd wave of FA yet, right?  This is a thread rant for months from now, not the day before the start of the new league year. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

My wish may come true.

 

 

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My wish may come true.

 

 

Sign a JAG, cut a Jag.

[No_Matter_What]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

In case folks are bothered re. Comp picks (because I know it is a popular topic around here) based on 2021 values and what we know about the contracts signed:

 

Outgoings

Mitch Trubisky at $7m AAV is likely 5th round value (slim chance of becoming a 4th with incentives earned)

Harrison Phillips at $6.15m AAV is also likely 5th round value

 

Incomings

Tim Settle at $4.5m AAV is likely 6th round value

We don't yet have details on Jones but if his contract value was around the same as his 1 year deal in Carolina ($4m AAV) that would also be likely 6th round value.

 

As it stands after day 1 the Bills would earn zero comp picks in 2022.

Bolded is because whether you get comp picks at all is decided only by number of relevant outgoings/incomings (which is 2/2 right now), and quality of the pick (i.e. which round) is determined only when you have more outgoings than incomings?

 

I am asking since apparently the way you listed is that outgoings should net more value.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My wish may come true.

 

 

Would be a great get. Sign me up for Shenault in this offense.

[thenorthremembers]

4 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Would be a great get. Sign me up for Shenault in this offense.

Not 100% sure I love the player, but on the rookie contract he would be a good get to at the very least compete with McKenzie for the slot position.

[Paul Costa]

Are Shernault and lil dirty to similar of players? Asking for a friend? 😳