dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 (edited) Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking: 73.9 passer rating 5.7 ypa 53.4% completion rate Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line. The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points. In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6. Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride 5 1 1 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more? 14 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Josh Allen is a gamer...Stats get thrown out the window. 8 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Motorin' said: So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more? More than that - if you factor his rushing plays into his performance as a QB (see above; I edited it), the numbers go way up. Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Allen is much better with the wind as evidenced yesterday by being 12/15 for 2 TDs with the wind and 12/30 against it. Not really a surprise, Allen has to throw lasers to try and cut through it and the receivers have dropped their fair share as well. 12 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, ganesh said: Josh Allen is a gamer...Stats get thrown out the window. They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: More than that - if you treat his rushing plays (see above; I edited it), the numbers go way up. Doesn't count. He's a QB, so his rushing stats don't count... Plus the Bills can't run the ball... 2,100 rushing yards later... The Bills still can't run the ball. Edited January 10, 2022 by Motorin' 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 OL seems to be playing better of late as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Motorin' said: So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more? The weather wasn’t THAT bad the last few weeks, the passing offense was just uncharacteristically ‘off.’ 1 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking: 73.9 passer rating 5.7 ypa 53.4% completion rate Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 8.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall. Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line. The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points. Dave, speaking to the "terrible #'s", note the numbers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of yesterday's game. That's when the offense was headed into a 25-35 mph wind. This is a theme for the entire season this year. We've had ridiculous wind and/or weather in all these games this season at home : PIT, WAS, HOU, IND, NE, ATL, NYJ. I attended all but the HOU game and can attest! lol. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: The weather wasn’t THAT bad the last few weeks, the passing offense was just uncharacteristically ‘off.’ Whatever you say Andy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less. Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said: Dave, speaking to the "terrible #'s", note the numbers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of yesterday's game. That's when the offense was headed into a 25-35 mph wind. This is a theme for the entire season this year. We've had ridiculous wind and/or weather in all these games this season at home : PIT, WAS, HOU, IND, NE, ATL, NYJ. I attended all but the HOU game and can attest! lol. Oh, I get it, but that stuff doesn't show up in any statistical assessment even though you and I both know it matters. Opponents' collective team passer rating in these same three games: 50.6. It's what I've been saying all along - the Bills passer rating differential has been 20+ in virtually every scenario you can concoct in long stretches of games. It doesn't really vary much. 8 minutes ago, Process said: The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less. Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game. I think you're kind of missing my point ... 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: The weather wasn’t THAT bad the last few weeks, the passing offense was just uncharacteristically ‘off.’ Falcons game didn’t look that bad but yesterday driving into the wind looked very tough…Zach Wilson doesn’t have a weak arm by any means and he threw some very wobbly passes. We were darn near perfect when we were driving with the wind so it’s pretty hard to say the wind wasn’t a big factor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msw2112 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Here's a stat from Josh Allen's last 4 games: 4-0! The only stat that matters. 3 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Falcons game didn’t look that bad but yesterday driving into the wind looked very tough…Zach Wilson doesn’t have a weak arm by any means and he threw some very wobbly passes. We were darn near perfect when we were driving with the wind so it’s pretty hard to say the wind wasn’t a big factor The Falcons game was very cold, which led to a bunch of drops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Oh, I get it, but that stuff doesn't show up in any statistical assessment even though you and I both know it matters. Opponents' collective team passer rating in these same three games: 50.6. It's what I've been saying all along - the Bills passer rating differential has been 20+ in virtually every scenario you can concoct in long stretches of games. It doesn't really vary much. I think you're kind of missing my point ... Haha I think you guys are saying the same thing but still debating somehow 😃 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I am here because I figured this would soon turn into a “build a dome” thread. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, dave mcbride said: The Falcons game was very cold, which led to a bunch of drops. very slippery field as well ( and they only plowed the hashes and numbers) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Falcons game didn’t look that bad but yesterday driving into the wind looked very tough…Zach Wilson doesn’t have a weak arm by any means and he threw some very wobbly passes. We were darn near perfect when we were driving with the wind so it’s pretty hard to say the wind wasn’t a big factor That one throw down the hashes to Davis that basically defied the law of physics was pretty much all the evidence one needs of the wind effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYFAN1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Check this out from Fivethirtyeight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-buffalo-bills-got-the-least-bang-for-their-schedules-buck-this-season/ This may explain some of that "high disparity" mentioned by the op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 All that matters from this point out is how many more W’s he collects with the team. Dabol could help in these weather games with more outlet options (read take the check downs - which JA seems to be loathe to do). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, Motorin' said: Doesn't count. He's a QB, so his rushing stats don't count... Plus the Bills can't run the ball... 2,100 rushing yards later... The Bills still can't run the ball. Although they are 6th in the NFL in rushing...amazing how facts never seem to get in the way of people's views. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, Motorin' said: Plus the Bills can't run the ball... One of the announcers yesterday said that the Bills' offense is #1 in the league on play-action passes. Interesting stat, given that our running game (until recently, and not counting Josh's runs) has been pretty mediocre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On the one hand, I think Allen will always be a guy who has weird weeks where his number stink but the Bills win. He's truly one of those "do whatever it takes" guys, and sometimes what it takes is gonna look like two INTs but a bunch of clutch runs, and ultimately a Bills victory. On the other hand, it's hard to deny that for long stretches of the past two weeks, the Bills offense has gone dormant. During those stretches, Allen has been inaccurate and out of rhythm. What's concerning is that this happened against bad defenses the past two weeks. Spare me the "bad weather" nonsense. Yesterday, there were far too many 3-and-outs, considering the Bills were going up against the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL. Bad weather or not, there's no excuse for that. They don't score on every drive? Fine. But at least put some drives together. I found yesterday and the week before concerning for the offense. Honestly, the offense has been Jekyll and Hyde for MUCH of this season. When it's on, it's really on, and you can see that it has the potential to be unstoppable -- the best offense in the league. But then other times, they can't BUY a first down or cash in a red zone trip. It's maddening and confusing, and they'd better hope that the Good Offense shows up next week against Belichick's defense. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective. No, no, no. Stats only get thrown out if they’re unfavorable. Sometimes you have to dig just deep enough and look at them just the right way for them to finally become beautifully favorable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnycage46 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Here's a stat...3-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Johnnycage46 said: Here's a stat...3-0. One could argue that it's a team game and the league's best defense had at least something do with that 3-0 record. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective. I give you high marks for trying, but with this crowd what you're doing is like trying to nail Jello to a tree. Lots of folks are very vocal about how they find analytics or any type of intelligent analysis useless. Maybe we just didn't want those games badly enough to win by more? Perhaps the team wasn't tough enough to win by more! 🤫 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, WhoTom said: One of the announcers yesterday said that the Bills' offense is #1 in the league on play-action passes. Interesting stat, given that our running game (until recently, and not counting Josh's runs) has been pretty mediocre. The run game doesn't have to be good to make play action effective. It just has to exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 He’ll figure it out. When they are focused in and in need of a drive, they have been able to turn it on. Those three lousy statistical games all included stretches when Allen got focused and got drives when needed. Herbert played the same way last night. Early on they were really off their game. But that 4th quarter Herbert was amazing. Consistency comes with more experience and maturity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, Process said: The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less. Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game. Allen has not been playing like a Top 3 QB recently. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 For all the circus catches Gabe Davis makes his catch ratio is exactly what Dawson Knox's was when he was getting killed on this board. Its not surprising to me that Josh's percentage has went down later in the season, especially when you have a #2 wideout going 3 for 14 on targets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Any chance the ankle injury from the Bucs game affects his throwing but not running? The timing coincides... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4243537/gabriel-davis Davis contributed to the low completion percentage yesterday. Targeted 14 times and only THREE receptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, dave mcbride said: Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking: 73.9 passer rating 5.7 ypa 53.4% completion rate Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 8.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line. The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points. In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6. I think Josh still needs to be able to run the ball to have his overall game be effective. After the toe injury it seems like his running game has been more of "in case of emergency" rather than an integral part of the offensive game plan. Josh is still growing as a qb, so hopefully the poor games will drive him to improve parts of his game (check downs, quicker releasing of the ball) moving forward. Hopefully the qb runs will be a little bigger part of the game plan in the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbRiddick Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, RyanC883 said: OL seems to be playing better of late as well. I may be off here (haven't bothered to check if I'm right) but the holding penalties seem way down lately. I don't recall seeing many. They've killed a lot of drives earlier in the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSarcasm Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 These boards really do gauge the fans temperature. I suppose it depends which way the wind blows, weather Allen does well or not. No17 just needs to snow when to throw it and snow when to run it. But I really don't snow why his last few games have been odd. I guess we will just have to weather the storm. I guess we should put a lid on it then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBean Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 This is dumb. Allen in LA or Tampa is the MVP every year. Weather has a huge impact on stats. Come on now. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said: I may be off here (haven't bothered to check if I'm right) but the holding penalties seem way down lately. I don't recall seeing many. They've killed a lot of drives earlier in the year I think you’re correct. There was one big one yesterday in the 3rd quarter. But it feels like it has gotten better these last few games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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