Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Process said:

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

He wasn’t even a top 3 qb in the afc according to the people that voted Tremaine into the pro bowl in previous seasons

[Sweats]

They should have a stat for how much a guy puts his team on his back and carries them.

[zow2]

Has Allen and the WR's connected on a bomb all season?  I mean like a 50yd+ true bomb for a TD.  I'm probably forgetting.

[NewEra]

57 minutes ago, Logic said:

On the one hand, I think Allen will always be a guy who has weird weeks where his number stink but the Bills win. He's truly one of those "do whatever it takes" guys, and sometimes what it takes is gonna look like two INTs but a bunch of clutch runs, and ultimately a Bills victory.

On the other hand, it's hard to deny that for long stretches of the past two weeks, the Bills offense has gone dormant. During those stretches, Allen has been inaccurate and out of rhythm.

What's concerning is that this happened against bad defenses the past two weeks. Spare me the "bad weather" nonsense. Yesterday, there were far too many 3-and-outs, considering the Bills were going up against the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL. Bad weather or not, there's no excuse for that. They don't score on every drive? Fine. But at least put some drives together.

I found yesterday and the week before concerning for the offense. Honestly, the offense has been Jekyll and Hyde for MUCH of this season. When it's on, it's really on, and you can see that it has the potential to be unstoppable -- the best offense in the league. But then other times, they can't BUY a first down or cash in a red zone trip. It's maddening and confusing, and they'd better hope that the Good Offense shows up next week against Belichick's defense.

Our DL bailed Josh out yesterday.  

[Xwnyer]

One troubling thing I am seeing is pinpoint precision first couple drives than ball is flying over heads and through hands of receivers 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, McBean said:

This is dumb.

 

 

It's not "this"...........it's more of a you thing.

 

dave was simply pointing out some unusual numbers.

 

Maybe you feel like you gotta' stand up for Josh now since you had very negative emotions on this board about the Bills drafting him but you can never make up for that,  you'll always be the guy that hated the Josh Allen pick. 

 

He's great..........but sh*t weather and other factors have not made it easy to pile up stats this year.  

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Our DL bailed Josh out yesterday.  

Yeah. I can't disagree.

Had our defense not been so elite, and had they not been going against such an inept opponent, it's highly likely that the game wouldn't have gone in the Bills' favor. They were just too ineffective for far too long on offense.

The long stretches of bad offense this season have been absolutely confusing and infuriating. Our offensive line has finally come together, our receivers are mostly healthy, even our run game has improved. And yet....for long stretches, we're the Keystone Cops.

I don't know where to point the finger, but I can't pretend that Allen is totally exempt from blame.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yeah. I can't disagree.

Had our defense not been so elite, and had they not been going against such an inept opponent, it's highly likely that the game wouldn't have gone in the Bills' favor. They were just too ineffective for far too long on offense.

The long stretches of bad offense this season have been absolutely confusing and infuriating. Our offensive line has finally come together, our receivers are mostly healthy, even our run game has improved. And yet....for long stretches, we're the Keystone Cops.

I don't know where to point the finger, but I can't pretend that Allen is totally exempt from blame.

I honestly think that Wilson held the ball too long in many cases because he was afraid to throw it into the wind and risk a pick. Which just goes to show how much weather affects these games. The weather yesterday was truly terrible for offenses going into the wind. Hyde said afterward that it was insane.  Of the 37 points scored yesterday, 34 were scored with the wind at the offense's back. The only time a team scored going into the wind was because Allen marched them down the field (mostly throwing the ball because he's Josh Allen) on an 81 yard drive at the end of the first half. In the first and fourth quarters, the Bills scored 24 points and Allen was 12-15 with two TDs. Take away the one TD throw by Wilson going with the wind in the second quarter, and the Jets had negative 40 passing yards.

Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride

[BaaadThingsMan]

How many drops have there been the last 3 weeks?

 

Seems like alot to me, I'm betting without looking it up its over 10-15 that hit receivers hands or were otherwise catchable but weren't. 

 

Elements or whatever factors it's not all on the QB.

Davis was horrible yesterday really

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Our DL bailed Josh out yesterday.  

 

Well.......Wilson and the wind were just as much of a factor as the Bills pass rush.

 

I had the distinct feeling that Daboll was determined to just have Josh throw from the pocket all game to avoid injury.     That's not what's been working in this weather.  Ended up being the least physical abuse he's taken in a game in months.   Mission accomplished.

 

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

How many drops have there been the last 3 weeks?

 

Seems like alot to me, I'm betting without looking it up its over 10-15 that hit receivers hands or were otherwise catchable but weren't. 

 

Elements or whatever factors it's not all on the QB.

Davis was horrible yesterday really

Eh...those drops are at least somewhat on the QB, IMO.

He can't throw Howitzer-Bazooka piss missiles at 150 MPH when receivers' hands are little frozen blocks of ice. He has to learn to take a little power out of those throws and use some touch. Situational/weather awareness.

[Toyo321]

What bothers me is that Allen on some pass attempts is not even close to being on target.  On deep balls this year he has over thrown so many balls that it is head scratching.  I mean he is not even close to giving the intended receiver a shot at the catch.  There is no reason you miss a receiver by 10 yards unless the wind is blowing 35 mph.  As much as I hate to say it he really has lost his deep ball throwing capability.  He was making these throws last year but not so this year.  He has  missed his receivers behind them or over thrown them so many time this year I have lost count, and in the last 3 games it still continues.  Really all year long.  Why I don't know.  The O Line has had issues with protection in past games and he has been running for his life.   He has had good pockets to throw from in the past 3 games and he is still making these errant throws.  Yes some are wind related but not all have been.

 

I don't expect him to make every pass, but you cant keep missing your target on deep attempts. When was the last time he has completed a pass for over 45-50 yards in the air.  This year this area of his passing game has been non existent.

 

I just hope that this is just a issue of maybe weather and just typical bad play calling, but this is something that will hurt us down the stretch.

 

He needs to get his accuracy back in check,  to where it was last year.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Toyo321

[ngbills]

No need to justify anything. Allen has been off and we are still in the playoffs with a legit chance to win it all. Allen has the insurance policy of being an elite athlete. When his passing game is off he can turn into an athlete. That cannot be his go to for the next 15 years but at this point in his career he can. He still is a work in progress and will improve. I think the shoddy OL play early got him into some bad habits that an offseason he can work out. 

[dave mcbride]

28 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

What bothers me is that Allen on some pass attempts is not even close to being on target.  On deep balls this year he has over thrown so many balls that it is head scratching.  I mean he is not even close to giving the intended receiver a shot at the catch.  There is no reason you miss a receiver by 10 yards unless the wind is blowing 35 mph.  As much as I hate to say it he really has lost his deep ball throwing capability.  He was making these throws last year but not so this year.  He has  missed his receivers behind them or over thrown them so many time this year I have lost count, and in the last 3 games it still continues.  Really all year long.  Why I don't know.  The O Line has had issues with protection in past games and he has been running for his life.   He has had good pockets to throw from in the past 3 games and he is still making these errant throws.  Yes some are wind related but not all have been.

 

I don't expect him to make every pass, but you cant keep missing your target on deep attempts. When was the last time he has completed a pass for over 45-50 yards in the air.  This year this area of his passing game has been non existent.

 

I just hope that this is just a issue of maybe weather and just typical bad play calling, but this is something that will hurt us down the stretch.

 

He needs to get his accuracy back in check,  to where it was last year.

He had the same issue last year on deep throws. His longtime issue is that he puts very little arc on his deep throws (his arm strength is that strong and he doesn't really need to), which means they need to be pinpoint because otherwise receivers don't have time to adjust to the ball. In the type of weather he's been playing in though, throwing Russell Wilson rainbows that receivers can adjust to is simply a non-starter given how much the wind will either hold it up or push it forward if it's high up there. He threw an absolute dime to Diggs on a ball that went probably 35 yards in the air yesterday but Diggs was pushed out by Echols and never got the second foot down. It was still a perfect throw, however. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride

[TheBrownBear]

Well, that's mostly because of one horrendous statistical game against the Falcons.  He was fine yesterday and great against the Pats.  It's not like some 3 game "trend."

[JESSEFEFFER]

Any QB metrics that don't grade on a curve for weather conditions are inherently biased.  As far as I know, none even attempt to do so.  Those that say "It's Buffalo--what do you expect?" I say most home games have been weekly outliers.  Nicer days before or after the game and worse on gamedays.  Deep shots into or with the wind come with a built in extra degree of variance.  Touch passes are more susceptible to wind effects, so that's why Josh is throwing rockets.  With the colder weather, his passes are even more difficult to catch so everyone is wanting Josh to power down.  Also, a slower ball = slower release = more time for pass rushers and defenders to react.  Most every QB in the NFL is no match for the Bills defense + tough weather.  Our QB can still make plays and is willing to try, so embrace it.

Edited January 10, 2022 by JESSEFEFFER

[Cheektowaga Chad]

When the bills play lesser opponents or the game isn't as important it seems allen stays in the pocket and doesn't take off running if he sees an opportunity. More likely to throw the ball away rather than take a hit for 5 or 6 yards 

 

I think teams especially the weaker teams picked up on his reluctance to improvise against them and its seen in his passer rating 

 

Because every game once he started moving/running things opened back up and started making completions again

 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Well, that's mostly because of one horrendous statistical game against the Falcons.  He was fine yesterday and great against the Pats.  It's not like some 3 game "trend."

I included three games (all in sequence) so it didn't seem like I was cherry picking the bad stuff. Even against the Pats he only averaged 6.7 ypa. That's way below his average last year. Yesterday, he had a 53 percent completion rate and averaged 5.3 ypa. That's objectively bad, but when you factor in the weather you see things differently. He made some bad throws yesterday, but overall had a positive performance when viewed in its totality.   

[Bruce Smith]

2 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Here's a stat from Josh Allen's last 4 games:  4-0!  The only stat that matters.

I think people forget it is about Wins and losses.  Not fantasy stats.  

[Evian]

Josh Allen only gets judged by 1 stat this time of year. Wins and Losses. Everything else is irrelevant.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

I’ve said it a million times 

 

Stats don’t tell the whole story

 

aka Stats Lie.  
 

 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I’ve said it a million times 

 

Stats don’t tell the whole story

 

aka Stats Lie.  
 

 

That's literally the point of my post.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Toyo321 said:

What bothers me is that Allen on some pass attempts is not even close to being on target.

oye. 
 

did the wind make the ball sail?

did JA17 just throw it away to avoid the sack?

 

 

The JETS brought their A game on Defense. 
 

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

That's literally the point of my post.

 

I was speaking in general terms and not to you directly 

 

It was directed to the many people here believe Stats are the END ALL 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

oye. 
 

did the wind make the ball sail?

did JA17 just throw it away to avoid the sack?

 

 

The JETS brought their A game on Defense. 
 

More than that, the Bills had 4 real possessions in the first and fourth quarters and drove down and scored on every one (except for the kneel downs at the end of the game). The only non-TD drive happened because the great TD throw to Diggs was overturned. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.  In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

 

I feel like a lot of that 3 game number is tied up in the falcons game where he had a 17 rating.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Here's a stat from Josh Allen's last 4 games:  4-0!  The only stat that matters.

That's pretty short sighted don't you think.  The Panthers, Falcons and Jets are all lousy.  

 

The passing game is going to have to be a lot better to have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.  The Bengals Chiefs and Titans are all good teams.  We will need to be at our best in all phases to beat them.  Especially the Chiefs and Titans, since we would be playing them on the road.  

[saundena]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Has Allen and the WR's connected on a bomb all season?  I mean like a 50yd+ true bomb for a TD.  I'm probably forgetting.

 

He had a couple of really long, sharp looking passes against KC earlier in the year.  Not sure if they were 50+ yards, but must have been pretty damn close to 50 at a minimum.  How long was that huge bomb to Diggs in the 1st Pats game?  The one that hit Diggs square in the hands, but he dropped.  I recall that one being like 45 yards in windy conditions.

 

That said, it seems like there should be more of these

[Dopey]

3 hours ago, Process said:

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

It's ok to say Josh didn't have a good game when he doesn't. We don't have to deflect from it like a lot of you do. Oh yeah, it's always Daboll's fault when Josh has an average to below average game. Riiiight!!!!

[Motorin']

8 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's pretty short sighted don't you think.  The Panthers, Falcons and Jets are all lousy.  

 

The passing game is going to have to be a lot better to have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.  The Bengals Chiefs and Titans are all good teams.  We will need to be at our best in all phases to beat them.  Especially the Chiefs and Titans, since we would be playing them on the road.  

 

How did Josh do passing in Tenn and KC this year? How do you think Burrow's touch passing would do in late January in OP? 

[Toyo321]

17 minutes ago, saundena said:

 

He had a couple of really long, sharp looking passes against KC earlier in the year.  Not sure if they were 50+ yards, but must have been pretty damn close to 50 at a minimum.  How long was that huge bomb to Diggs in the 1st Pats game?  The one that hit Diggs square in the hands, but he dropped.  I recall that one being like 45 yards in windy conditions.

 

That said, it seems like there should be more of these

Only two completions,   KC  61 yards and the other was 57  in the jets game.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Toyo321

[Doc]

Josh should have had at least 2 more TD passes.  I'm not sure why Diggs didn't try to hit the pylon on that one play, and Davis should have caught a pass for a TD later.

 

But that first TD pass play was insane.  He split 2 defenders, stiff-armed another to the ground and wriggled out of his grasp, and was about to be sacked but left his feet and got the pass to Diggs.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Doc

[FilthyBeast]

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

 

yeah no.

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

So happy he didn't post #'s.  Remember the last Jets game and all the adulation.....  Next game was vs. Indy.  

 

Seemed here at least people were way too excited.

 

My worry this week the defense being a little too cocky.....😉

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Couldn't find some defensive home/away splits so here are some i came up with 

 

Total yards:

Away - 315 yards per game 

Home - 235.22 yards per game

 

Passing yards:

Away - 213 yards per game

Home - 119 yards per game

 

Rushing yards

Away - 102 yards per game

Home 116.67 yards per game (with 

 

Takeaways:

17 - Away

13 - Home

 

I dont' think i need to do first downs to show the discrepancy here is pretty stark.  Teams struggled to move the ball at all in the inclement weather in buffalo - Even NE with 200+ on the ground only had 11 first downs.  The colts game was the big outlier and in that one some injuries and missed fits resulted in some big plays.  

 

Allen performed much worse at home - but other QBs who already performed poorly against buffalo's defense performed insanely bad.

 

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

 

I guess we could always look to trade him for Tua. 😉

[FilthyBeast]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

Josh Allen is a gamer...Stats get thrown out the window.

 

Against better teams the last few weeks we lose and likely lose big. And considering how lopsided the Jets stats were they had no business being within 3 points in the 4th quarter.

 

People can continue to dismiss Allen's struggles to fit their rah rah, idol worship type agenda but if don't go very far in the playoffs he's likely going to be the main reason why.

[teef]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

Against better teams the last few weeks we lose and likely lose big. And considering how lopsided the Jets stats were they had no business being within 3 points in the 4th quarter.

 

People can continue to dismiss Allen's struggles to fit their rah rah, idol worship type agenda but if don't go very far in the playoffs he's likely going to be the main reason why.

you accuse people of posting strictly on conjecture and opinion, yet here you are.  and idol worship?  how is therapy going for you?

[FilthyBeast]

Just now, teef said:

you accuse people of posting strictly on conjecture and opinion, yet here you are.  and idol worship?  how is therapy going for you?

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Against better teams the last few weeks we lose and likely lose big. And considering how lopsided the Jets stats were they had no business being within 3 points in the 4th quarter.

 

People can continue to dismiss Allen's struggles to fit their rah rah, idol worship type agenda but if don't go very far in the playoffs he's likely going to be the main reason why.

We won all those games by 2+ touchdowns. Against better teams those are not automatic losses. They are just closer one score games. Which is what you would expect in the NFL.