Week 11 Colts Week

[Do The Reich Thing]

We cannot go 1-3 against the AFC South... Must win this

[Gambit]

11 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

As long as Buffalo handles their business, we want the Pats to win since they wouldn't be able to catch us.

[Greg S]

15 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

 

That's a good question. Honestly it will be both good and bad for the Bills no matter the outcome. The perfect outcome would be a tie but what are the odds that happens. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Wentz is quietly having a good year.

[Solomon Grundy]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

Wentz is quietly having a good year.

As quiet as a church mouse 

[dave mcbride]

32 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

You kind of have to root for the Pats because vs. the Pats, the Bills can control their own destiny. Vs. Tennessee, they can't. They need help.

[eball]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You kind of have to root for the Pats because vs. the Pats, the Bills can control their own destiny. Vs. Tennessee, they can't. They need help.

 

Yup.  I think 13-4 is what it will take to clinch the #1 seed without relying on tiebreakers, which means Tennessee needs to lose three games.  Their schedule looks horribly easy on paper, however...

[Process]

Colts are definitely being overrated a bit here. Their defense is good at forcing turnovers but is otherwise terrible. 

 

If the Bills are on their game we should win comfortably. 

 

Reading this thread reminds me of the end of last year when everyone was terrified of playing the Ravens in the playoffs.

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

He did injure/reinjure his ankle, but no word yet on the severity.

 

with him in, we get no pressure on QB.  With him out, not sure if there is much difference.  DL came on (well, Oliver did) yesterday.  Would like to see that more sustained against an actual NFL QB.  

36 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

We cannot go 1-3 against the AFC South... Must win this

 

may want to change your username this week, traitor!

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yup.  I think 13-4 is what it will take to clinch the #1 seed without relying on tiebreakers, which means Tennessee needs to lose three games.  Their schedule looks horribly easy on paper, however...

You may laugh, but divisional games can be tougher than one expects and Jax is playing teams tough now for the most part. They put 454 yards (198 rushing) vs TN earlier this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202110100jax.htm. TN will probably win, but I don’t see it as a gimme.  Miami is kinda the same deal. But yeah, on paper it’s a pretty easy schedule overall.

Edited November 15, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Rumblinstumblin]

57 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Depends on this week for me. If we win then I'll hope the Titans go down. A loss to the Colts and we need to worry more about the division with NE potentially taking the lead in a Bills lose/Pats win situation this weekend.

Probably don't know till the week of, but I'm more concerned with the Pats than whatever is left of the Titans right now. Bills should've beat those same Titans at full strength in a game that was on the road and in Monday Night prime time (more difficult than an early slot Sunday game). It's annoying seeing the few pundits I've seen overrate them. I personally think the Colts are better outside of Wentz fumbling the bag. This Colts game will be a big test for the Bills

Edited November 15, 2021 by Rumblinstumblin

[eball]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You may laugh, but divisional games can be tougher than one expects and Jax is playing teams tough now for the most part. They put 454 yards (198 rushing) vs TN earlier this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202110100jax.htm. TN will probably win, but I don’t see it as a gimme.  Miami is kinda the same deal. But yeah, on paper it’s a pretty easy schedule overall.

 

I keep expecting Tennessee to break down but they've been solid.  Maybe the Bills can just run the table and make it a moot point!

[Royale with Cheese]

We should win and don't expect a blowout.  We should be able to score and I don't think they should put more than 21.

I think 28-20 Bills.

[msw2112]

The Colts are tough and are better than their record suggests.  They are well coached and have some difference makers on both sides of the ball (Taylor, Nelson on Offense, Leonard on defense).  Wentz is a wild card, but capable of playing well.  They gave the Bills a run for their money in the playoffs last year with Rivers at QB.  If both teams play their best game, I think the Bills win it, but if the Bills don't play their best, they could lose this game.

[Logic]

The thing that scares me about this game is the Colts defensive line.

Grover Stewart and Deforest Buckner have the potential to give the Bills' o-line fits.

The key to a potential Bills win is Spencer Brown being healthy. The difference in pass protection and run blocking with him in the lineup is stark.

[Hebert19]

I think we will rattle Wentz...and he will toss a few our way as a result. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The Colts are a good team.   Wentz at QB is, to my mind, a huge downgrade from Phillip Rivers.    Kudos to Frank Reich and OC Marcus Brady for coaching up Wentz to the same QB rating, very few INTs, only about 20 ypg less passing, and putting the offense in about the same place (8th vs 9th for points) as their offense under Rivers.  When you consider that they swapped a potential HOF with one of the best football minds in the game for a QB who looked like a total hot mess last year, That's Some Coaching.

 

On offense, the Colts lost their long time all-star LT Anthony Castanzo to retirement.  Thanks to the Chiefs kicking him to the curb, they were able to pick up Eric Fisher who is very good.  It's not often a team loses a franchise LT and can pick up another without a burp.  Other than that, they were able to bring back almost everyone but their backup QB.  Pittman looks to have taken a step in his second season.  Solid offense, #8 overall after week 9.  Not as dangerous passing as rushing, but like Tennessee they force you to come up with a strategy to defend both. 

 

On defense, it's a different story.  I don't follow the Colts too closely, but one way or another they've lost players at every position group on D.

In FA they lost both last year's starting DE and their starting MLB:

Justin Houston, who contributed 8 sacks last season and gave us fits in the playoff game, went to the Ravens

Denico Autry, who contributed 7.5 sacks last season, went to Tennessee where he gave us fits a few weeks ago.

They were replaced with Muhammed (depth previous seasons), and rookie Kwity Paye.

Anthony Walker went to the Browns.  They seem to have replaced him by moving last year's RLB Bobby Okereke to MLB and backfilling with 7th round rookie Zaire Franklin.   I don't know enough about the Colts defensive scheme to know how significant that is.  How much time are they in base D vs nickle or dime?

 

But....in the secondary, both their starting safeties (Blackmon and Willis) are currently on IR.  Blackmon tore his Achilles and is done for the season after 6 games.

Willis has a groin injury and is not eligible to return this week.

 

3 of their 5 losses were by less than 1 score, and 2 were in OT.

3 of them were in the first 3 weeks of the season and arguably, reflect the time needed for Brady and Reich to complete the operation to extract Wentz head from his butt and get him to play to his potential again.

 

Unless the Bills D is able to get into Wentz' head, expect a physical, tight, hard-fought game.

 

I saw a lot of promising stuff yesterday from our beloved Buffalo Bills, but I also saw trouble - the fumbles by Motor and Brieda; Josh's INT; a couple other times when Josh wasn't picked but threw very dangerous balls; how soft and sloppy the Bills D grew once they had a lead.  The Bills still have stuff to clean up.

 

It's Showtime, Baby; this is the time of the season when contenders and pretenders begin to separate. 

 

The Bills flunked their first test as a defense against a strong rushing team that can also pass the ball.  Will they come up with a better plan this time?  We'll see Sunday.
 

 

 

[Blainorama5]

What's the weather forecast?  It's against the Colts - had to ask.  😉

[appoo]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Wentz is quietly having a good year.

Jonathan Taylor is loudly having a better year

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

The thing that scares me about this game is the Colts defensive line.

Grover Stewart and Deforest Buckner have the potential to give the Bills' o-line fits.

The key to a potential Bills win is Spencer Brown being healthy. The difference in pass protection and run blocking with him in the lineup is stark.

 

I have not followed the Colts that closely. 

 

But they lost 2 of the 4 players who made their defensive line scary last season, in Houston and Autry, and my impression is that their DL is no longer as fierce as it was.

 

Of course, we have shown that no DL is too bad to give the Bills fits if they don't run the ball and stay out of 3rd and Forever.

[appoo]

If the Bills are healthy on the OLine, I'll be honest I don't see this being super competitive in the 4th quarter. 

 

Teams that are going to give the Bills problems are teams who disciplined enough to stick to a conservative defensive game plan, and have a front 7 that can stop the run without blitzing - and can win their matchups on the dline - without blitzing often. 

 

I can Reich getting points though. Can see this as a 38 - 24 game or something

[HOUSE]

Frank Reich knows our playbook from 1993, we are in big trouble

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have not followed the Colts that closely. 

 

But they lost 2 of the 4 players who made their defensive line scary last season, in Houston and Autry, and my impression is that their DL is no longer as fierce as it was.

 

Of course, we have shown that no DL is too bad to give the Bills fits if they don't run the ball and stay out of 3rd and Forever.

I believe your impressions are correct. 

From what I can gather, it seems that the departure of Denico Autry and Justin Houston has allowed teams to frequently double team Buckner, largely nullifying his usual impact. The Colts' first round pass rusher, Kwity Paye, hasn't had the immediate impact they had hoped.

This being the case, it seems imperative that the interior of the Bills' o-line communicates well and is prepared to handle double teams and respond to twists and stunts.

All in all, I like the Bills' chances in this one, but the outcome -- as always -- will hinge on the war in the trenches. In the Bills' case, being without their starting 1T against a good rushing team. In the Colts' case, potentially making life difficult for the Bills run game and deep passing game by pushing the pocket into Allen's lap.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Logic

[ArdmoreRyno]

Heading to Buffalo this Friday from Oklahoma with my dad.... our first trip to Buffalo. Been a fan since 1988 and have watched us play in Texas a few times, but never at home. Staying at N.F. from Friday to Tuesday. 

 

Any "must" things to do? We are going to Toronto Saturday to see one of my dad's dental friends. 

 

Can't wait!

[longtimebillsfan]

2 hours ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Not exactly about the Colts game but looking at the current standings - Who do you root for in the Pats-Titans game in two weeks? I'm thinking you have to root for the Pats right if we're to have any shot at the bye week in the playoffs.

I think we need to secure the division first. 

 

Go Titans!

[FilthyBeast]

I'm still very concerned about this game despite this team temporarily alleviating some of the criticism yesterday.

 

Thinks it's a very bad match up on paper and Colts will definitely have motivation to kill 2 birds with one stone so to speak by getting revenge for the playoff loss last year and climbing above .500 for the first time all season and keep their current momentum going.

 

Really think the Bills will need to play their best game of the season to win.

[Process]

14 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

Heading to Buffalo this Friday from Oklahoma with my dad.... our first trip to Buffalo. Been a fan since 1988 and have watched us play in Texas a few times, but never at home. Staying at N.F. from Friday to Tuesday. 

 

Any "must" things to do? We are going to Toronto Saturday to see one of my dad's dental friends. 

 

Can't wait!

Not many must things to do this time of year. NF is probably at the top of the list, still cool to check out even when it's cold out. 

 

Just fyi since you are going to Canada anyways, the Canadian side of the falls are way nicer and there is much more going on in the area.

 

US side definitely has some nice views of the falls but other than 1 casino, there is nothing else their.

[freddyjj]

4 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I agree. This worked against Tenn until Henry's big run. Taylor is good but he's not Henry

If I recall,  AJ Klein only played 3 snaps vs Titans as a 3rd LB.  And AJ Klein was not on the field for the long run btw.

 

And in Jan Bills playoff game vs Colts AJ only had 3 snaps out of 79 

 

Doubt Bills go 3 LBs as the TE on play action killed us in playoff game.

[atlbillsfan1975]

10 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

I'm still very concerned about this game despite this team temporarily alleviating some of the criticism yesterday.

 

Thinks it's a very bad match up on paper and Colts will definitely have motivation to kill 2 birds with one stone so to speak by getting revenge for the playoff loss last year and climbing above .500 for the first time all season and keep their current momentum going.

 

Really think the Bills will need to play their best game of the season to win.

I hear you and share some of the same sentiments. If the Bills play their best game, I don’t think anyone in the league can beat Buffalo. I mean a complete offensive and defensive performance.

[Mark Vader]

6 hours ago, HOUSE said:

The Colts will be a desperate team, bring the A game

I think the Bills will be bringing their A game for the rest of the season.

[FilthyBeast]

13 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I hear you and share some of the same sentiments. If the Bills play their best game, I don’t think anyone in the league can beat Buffalo. I mean a complete offensive and defensive performance.

Bills still need to prove they can beat teams that aren't the Jets/Dolphins/Texans/etc consistently. Colts fit that bill given they are 5-2 in their last seven games with both losses being in OT against the Titans and Ravens.

 

And while the Chiefs win looks a bit better now on paper, it still came when they were struggling mightily and without key players like Chris Jones who is showing why he's top 10 player given how much better the chiefs defense has played in recent weeks.

 

Bottom line is the Bills need to do to the Colts what the Pats did to the Browns yesterday to prove they are a true contender....beat another solid opponent and playoff contender decisively.

[Mark Vader]

47 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

Heading to Buffalo this Friday from Oklahoma with my dad.... our first trip to Buffalo. Been a fan since 1988 and have watched us play in Texas a few times, but never at home. Staying at N.F. from Friday to Tuesday. 

 

Any "must" things to do? We are going to Toronto Saturday to see one of my dad's dental friends. 

 

Can't wait!

You have to tailgate at Hammer's Lot. You'll see the Pinto Tailgate there.

 

Contact @mead107 for a parking spot and get there by 6:30am. You won't regret it.

[BritBill]

17 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Bills still need to prove they can beat teams that aren't the Jets/Dolphins/Texans/etc consistently. Colts fit that bill given they are 5-2 in their last seven games with both losses being in OT against the Titans and Ravens.

 

And while the Chiefs win looks a bit better now on paper, it still came when they were struggling mightily and without key players like Chris Jones who is showing why he's top 10 player given how much better the chiefs defense has played in recent weeks.

 

Bottom line is the Bills need to do to the Colts what the Pats did to the Browns yesterday to prove they are a true contender....beat another solid opponent and playoff contender decisively.

No they don’t. 

[CincyBillsFan]

49 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

I'm still very concerned about this game despite this team temporarily alleviating some of the criticism yesterday.

 

Thinks it's a very bad match up on paper and Colts will definitely have motivation to kill 2 birds with one stone so to speak by getting revenge for the playoff loss last year and climbing above .500 for the first time all season and keep their current momentum going.

 

Really think the Bills will need to play their best game of the season to win.

Last years playoff game will have zero impact on this game.  Both Indy & the Bills should be motivated to win now that we're in the playoff hunt stretch.

 

And I fear an accurate, patient QB like Rivers more then I do Wentz. Sure, it will be a tough game but I see the Bills taking it by 7 - 10 points.

 

 

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

There is no dominant team in the league right now.  Some team is going to catch fire in December all the way to the Super Bowl.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The Colts are a good team.   Wentz at QB is, to my mind, a huge downgrade from Phillip Rivers.    Kudos to Frank Reich and OC Marcus Brady for coaching up Wentz to the same QB rating, very few INTs, only about 20 ypg less passing, and putting the offense in about the same place (8th vs 9th for points) as their offense under Rivers.  When you consider that they swapped a potential HOF with one of the best football minds in the game for a QB who looked like a total hot mess last year, That's Some Coaching.

 

I think Wentz's season last year isn't really being seen correctly. Yes, he was terrible, but if you look at the past five seasons including this one, last year was the outlier. Wentz's production this season is squarely in line with his production between 2017-19, when he was at least a moderately above-average QB. His performance this year looks like a pretty simple case of regression to the median: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00.htm. He has a 17/3 TD/INT ratio, which is excellent. The ratio was 27/7 (also excellent) in 2019, a year in which he carried a decimated team on his back to the playoffs. I know @GunnerBill really thinks he stinks now, but the results suggest otherwise.

Edited November 15, 2021 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think Wentz's season last year isn't really being seen correctly. Yes, he was terrible, but if you look at the past five seasons including this one, last year was the outlier. Wentz's production this season is squarely in line with his production between 2017-19, when he was at least a moderately above-average QB. His performance this year looks like a pretty simple case of regression to the median: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00.htm. He has a 17/3 TD/INT ratio, which is excellent. The ratio was 27/7 (also excellent) in 2019, a year in which he carried a decimated team on his back to the playoffs. I know @GunnerBill really thinks he stinks now, but the results suggest otherwise.

 

I do still think he stinks. I thought he was crap again yesterday too. That team goes as Jonathan Taylor goes. The Colts are asking Wentz to do less than the Pats are asking of Mac Jones. 

 

The 2019 season I think he played really well down the stretch with a decimated team but even then it was more like his will and his desire than him actually technically playing the position at a high level. I have no doubt Wentz is a competitor. He just isn't a very good Quarterback. Our plan for Sunday should be take away the best running back in the NFL and make Wentz beat us. If we can do that we win. 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I do still think he stinks. I thought he was crap again yesterday too. That team goes as Jonathan Taylor goes. The Colts are asking Wentz to do less than the Pats are asking of Mac Jones. 

 

The 2019 season I think he played really well down the stretch with a decimated team but even then it was more like his will and his desire than him actually technically playing the position at a high level. I have no doubt Wentz is a competitor. He just isn't a very good Quarterback. Our plan for Sunday should be take away the best running back in the NFL and make Wentz beat us. If we can do that we win. 

I hope you're right about Sunday ... but I think you're wrong about him. 

[Son of a K-Gun]

1 hour ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

Heading to Buffalo this Friday from Oklahoma with my dad.... our first trip to Buffalo. Been a fan since 1988 and have watched us play in Texas a few times, but never at home. Staying at N.F. from Friday to Tuesday. 

 

Any "must" things to do? We are going to Toronto Saturday to see one of my dad's dental friends. 

 

Can't wait!

Take the scenic route along the lake to/from Toronto on Saturday...Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Dalhousie...and stop in for a drink somewhere.  It's a beautiful area.

[FilthyBeast]

19 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Last years playoff game will have zero impact on this game.  Both Indy & the Bills should be motivated to win now that we're in the playoff hunt stretch.

 

And I fear an accurate, patient QB like Rivers more then I do Wentz. Sure, it will be a tough game but I see the Bills taking it by 7 - 10 points.

 

 

 

 

 

Your kidding yourself if you believe that.

 

Just like how the Chiefs ended our season last year, we did the same to the Colts and quite frankly they should have won the game compared to the Bills who were pretty much done at halftime against the Chiefs.

 

They will be very motivated to beat the Bills for that reason alone, in addition to the fact they know the AFC is wide open at 5-5 they are poised to make run like many other teams right now.