"If Allen Plays Like Crap This Week, Accept that He's Simply Not Good

[Jobot]

Clown post.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

i think everyone is one the same page for improvements needed.  it's the level of reaction/overreaction that seems to be the divide.

 

TBH, not entirely.  For example I read "Pass rush was not a concern, nor was players getting open.  Josh simply was missing them. " from a very reasonable, knowledgeable poster. 

 

Now granted he posts off impressions watching the game the first time through and is open about saying so, but it has me wondering if he and I are watching the same game, because it's just not what I saw.  There's some definite "Rashoman" vibe going down here.

 

I've only gone through half the game in detail because the new gamepass interface SUCKS and not having all-22 SUCKS and nfl.com SUCKS for taking my money and not giving me the same product I paid for, but (for example) in the first half of 16 passes, I saw 2 throws where Allen had time and an open player and simply missed.  I saw 3 throwaways under pressure and a batted ball.  There were two bad decisions (the INT, and another play where Allen was hit as he threw), both under duress.

 

There were 6 completions, and 5 of those completions were swing passes or checkdowns or quick fast passes.  There was only one deep pass where Allen had time to let it develop.  So is this 2018 Allen, no way - that guy never threw the ball away.  Is Josh simply standing there in a clean pocket missing guys?  Also no way, with the 2 exceptions noted above.

 

Objective data towards the above, Allen is listed as 1.2 seconds pocket time vs 2.6 seconds last year on pro-football-reference; and elsewhere posted that he's faced one of the highest "pressure allowed" rates so far.

 

 

[uninja]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This obsessive worry over Allen seems weird to me.

 

We're a board of Bills fans, most of them deeply scarred and broken by 2 decades of futility and irrelevance, sprinkled in with just enough hope only to have the rug pulled out from under us when we drop our guard.

 

I'm surprised at how civil the discourse here is for the most part.

[billsfan_34]

Two games into the season and the third game we would annoint JA a failure after going to the AFC East Championship Game last year? Call me crazy, but I am for the benefit of the doubt here.

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, uninja said:

 

We're a board of Bills fans, most of them deeply scarred and broken by 2 decades of futility and irrelevance, sprinkled in with just enough hope only to have the rug pulled out from under us when we drop our guard.

 

I'm surprised at how civil the discourse here is for the most part.

I agree and posted earlier that Bills fans have football's version of PTSS.  And don't forget that right before the great 20 year slump the Bill's lost FOUR straight Super Bowls.  That will shake a fan base for sure.

 

 

Just now, billsfan_34 said:

Two games into the season and the third game we would annoint JA a failure after going to the AFC East Championship Game last year? Call me crazy, but I am for the benefit of the doubt here.

And after a solid outing in 2019 where Allen improved and helped lead the Bills to a playoff game that they earned not one they backed into (see 2017).

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

17 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

OMFG.....

Proves last year wasn't a fluke to whom???

 

Side Note: I would just like to thank the mods, and @Hapless Bills Fan for making this its own thread. @FilthyBeast should get a plaque, or something.

[1ManRaid]

17 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

 

You call last year "a few glimpses of greatness"?

[FilthyBeast]

I don't understand how this thread was started because I don't even know how to start my own because I've tried before?

 

But I just want to note that it doesn't mean the season is over after 3 games or Allen is completely trash, it's just hard to understand how a guy who had an MVP caliber season last year can be among the worst QB's in the league after 2 games in 2021. His YPA is even worse than his rookie season which is unfathomable.

[MJS]

So if Allen has another pedestrian passing game, it's impossible for him to have any more good passing games for the rest of the year?

 

That's a tough rule.

[Rocky Landing]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

I don't understand how this thread was started because I don't even know how to start my own because I've tried before?

 

But I just want to note that it doesn't mean the season is over after 3 games or Allen is completely trash, it's just hard to understand how a guy who had an MVP caliber season last year can be among the worst QB's in the league after 2 games in 2021. His YPA is even worse than his rookie season which is unfathomable.

Unfathomable, indeed!

[1ManRaid]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

I don't understand how this thread was started because I don't even know how to start my own because I've tried before?

 

But I just want to note that it doesn't mean the season is over after 3 games or Allen is completely trash, it's just hard to understand how a guy who had an MVP caliber season last year can be among the worst QB's in the league after 2 games in 2021. His YPA is even worse than his rookie season which is unfathomable.

 

I guess you missed that big neon blue header at the top of the page explaining how it became its own thread?

[wiseman3]

2 games into the season and getting worried is laughable. 2 freaking weeks! At least wait 4 games before freaking out. Deep breaths

[MJS]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH, not entirely.  For example I read "Pass rush was not a concern, nor was players getting open.  Josh simply was missing them. " from a very reasonable, knowledgeable poster. 

 

Now granted he posts off impressions watching the game the first time through and is open about saying so, but it has me wondering if he and I are watching the same game, because it's just not what I saw.  There's some definite "Rashoman" vibe going down here.

 

I've only gone through half the game in detail because the new gamepass interface SUCKS and not having all-22 SUCKS and nfl.com SUCKS for taking my money and not giving me the same product I paid for, but (for example) in the first half of 16 passes, I saw 2 throws where Allen had time and an open player and simply missed.  I saw 3 throwaways under pressure and a batted ball.  There were two bad decisions (the INT, and another play where Allen was hit as he threw), both under duress.

 

There were 6 completions, and 5 of those completions were swing passes or checkdowns or quick fast passes.  There was only one deep pass where Allen had time to let it develop.  So is this 2018 Allen, no way - that guy never threw the ball away.  Is Josh simply standing there in a clean pocket missing guys?  Also no way, with the 2 exceptions noted above.

 

Objective data towards the above, Allen is listed as 1.2 seconds pocket time vs 2.6 seconds last year on pro-football-reference; and elsewhere posted that he's faced one of the highest "pressure allowed" rates so far.

Asking some fans to be objective and actually consider situations on the field is way too much to ask. You should know this. This place has always been reactionary. Every throw is how the rest of Allen's career will go.

 

Honestly, even the positivity after big wins and big passing games is way too reactionary.

 

It's the same sentiment that had Bills fans calling Allen a bust after his first season because of his low completion percentage. They simply can't help but overreact to small sample sizes.

 

I avoid TBD after losses for the most part because it's toxic and just kind of stupid. Even after a 35-0 spanking of the Dolphins fans can't handle some temporary struggles in the passing game.

[Dopey]

Bring in Mitch, and I mean right now!!!

[auburnbillsbacker]

So do we ignore all of last season then?  

[Rico]

25 minutes ago, Jobot said:

Clown post.

Troll post > Clown post. Sounds like Billi. 

[CincyBillsFan]

I recommend that everyone get Sal Maiorana's history of the Buffalo Bills through the 1994 SB called "Relentless".  It has box scores for EVERY Bills game played from 1960 - 1994. You can learn a lot that puts everything into perspective:

 

First a disclaimer - IMO Jim Kelly is the greatest QB to ever play for the Bills and it's not close.  Kelly is also a HOF QB.  But like even the greatest QB's Kelly had his off games including a series of off games.  So let's take a trip down memory lane:

 

1988 - the year the Bills broke through and made it all the way to the AFC championship game.  Here's how Kelly started the first three games that season.  All were Bills wins:

 

week 1: Buffalo 13 Minnesota 10 - Kelly was 17/31 for 204 yards and one INT.  NO TD's

week 2: Buffalo 9 Miami 6 - Kelly was 15/24 for 231 yards and one INT. NO TD's

week 3: Buffalo 16 New England 14 - Kelly was 21/33 for 170 yards and two INT's.  NO TD's. One of his INT's was at the NE two yard line.

 

So through the first 3 games of 1988 Kelly had thrown NO TD passes and FOUR INT's.  We were 3 -0 at the time but can you imagine how this board would have reacted?

 

Now let's jump to later in that season and see how Kelly fared against a bad (4-10) Tampa Bay team:

 

First the Bills lost 10 - 5 and Kelly was 23/40 for 249 yards and two INT's.  NO TD pass. This loss cost us home field advantage in the playoffs that year.

 

I didn't even look at 1989 and when I flipped to 1990 - the Bills first Super Bowl year - I found this in only the 2nd game:

 

week 2: Miami 30 Buffalo 7 - Kelly was 14/23 for 140 yards and one INT.

 

Bottom line we are weeks away from having any reason to be concerned about Allen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Monty98]

23 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

You call last year "a few glimpses of greatness"?

No I think he's saying last year was the statistical anomaly, and that Allen is looking like the 2019 Allen with meh play but with glimpses of what his potential can be.

 

On to my point, I think part of the reason of his poor start is the lack of playing time he had in the preseason. No time to build chemistry and work on timing with players or get comfortable with their game play. He's not in tune with Sanders just yet, seems like he's not in full synch with Diggs either, and our guys have also had some bad drops. I'm not worried just yet, now if Allen self implodes these next two weeks I'll officially be worried

[GreggTX]

Obviously another bad game will raise concerns, but I don't know how a player can regress this far unless he doesn't care (ie- Dareus) or he gets injured. He looked good in camp too against what's obviously a good defense. I think he'll turn this around, but in the mean time, his haters at PFF, EA Sports and that weird looking, nerdy guy with the taxi door ears on TV that's always crapping on him.

[BringBackFlutie]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Let's take a factual look at Allen.  19 games last season, so how about games 10-13?  He wasn't injured or recovering from injury then AFAIK

comp-att-% comp- yds-TD-INT-rating-sacks-yds-Y/A-AY/A

 

Last 2 weeks:

 

Maybe even a record-setting offensive season isn't quite the panacea of unvarying excellence you all seem to expect.

Earlier in the season, Allen passed for this against NE:

We went into that game with another run heavy game plan

 

One step further: 95% of data in a normal distribution lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

If we look at regular season 2020, this range is between 53-85% completions, 107-461 ypg, 0-5 TD/game, 0-2 INT/game, and a rating between 62-151

 

I'm not trying to say Allen's been good the last two weeks, but his data isn't even factually outside the range of what we saw in a number of games last season to work yourself into a froth about "last year could have been an outlier and he's the same guy we saw in 2019 and and and and" spluttering.

 

"We have a right to demand better as fans" Geeze Louise, what exactly right do you think you have, who gave it to you, and where is this QB tree you think Beane can stroll up to and pluck an improved QB who never has a down game from?

 

 

One more time: Pittsburgh was missing 5 of their starting 11 on defense yesterday.  Tuitt (IR), Haden (CB) and Bush (LB) were inactive going into the game.

Alualu (DT) and Watt (DE/LB) were injured during the game.

 

Maybe...when you're missing almost half your starting defense, the quality falls off a bit?

 

Congratulations, you're achieving an unstated goal.

 

For numbers, see above

You're pretty alright in my book, Hap.

 

...pretty alright. 

[Mat68]

22 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Agree, if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good and behind closed doors in Orchard Park there will be serious buyers remorse knowing that he had a fluke year during the weird fanless covid year.

 

Washington has a good dline and but has struggled mightily overall and is lucky to be 1-1 right now. And even if they were a top defense Allen played extremely well against many top 10 defenses last year and has to show that again given his contract. Really hope he can turn it around and come out firing.

Hey Nick Wright joined the forum.  

[Boatdrinks]

While it’s apparent to any Bills fan that Allen’s play has been “ off” so far, it’s just going to be a lot tougher to achieve that “ breakout” type performance level the following year. Defensive coordinators have devoted their offseason to stopping Allen. Swap out one of the main WRs,  throw in some sub-par play from an OL that was previously reliable and well......See where this is going ? Anyone assuming the Bills offense would simply continue their best team performance in decades was guilty of serious wishful thinking. Sure, the Bills have Diggs and that’s something. However, they don’t have two darn near unstoppable , uncoverable weapons such as Kelce and Hill. Daboll certainly has his work cut out for him, as defenses have taken things away for a string of games now when the playoffs are thrown in there. Allen has seemed to revert back to some of his previous poor mechanics. He’s worked it out before, but it appears he must do it again. A lot of this consternation from fans is magnified by the contract extension. I wouldn’t have hated if the Bills had held off on that, as I’d prefer to see two excellent seasons as opposed to a good one followed by a great one. That’s the decision they made, and we can’t change it. Two games into 2021 has given fans a reason for some concern, but it’s just way too early to write the book on Allen’s career. There’s a long, long way to go. 

[CincyBillsFan]

I couldn't help myself so I looked at 1989, a playoff year but also the year of the Bickering Bills!  This was Kelly's 4th year in the NFL (6th year in the pros with the USFL) and followed 1988's AFC Championship game loss. And again, Jim Kelly is the greatest QB in Bills history and he's in the HOF - enough said:

 

So here we go:

 

Game 2:  Denver 28 Bills 14.  Kelly was 26/44 for 298 yards, 3 INT's and 1 TD pass.

Game 5:  Colts 37 Bill 14.  Kelly was hurt in this game.  But before his injury he was 20/32 for 216 yards, 3 INT's and 1 TD pass.

 

Kelly came back after a few weeks and had some good games but then a bad late season slump:

 

Game 13:  Seattle 17 Bills 16.  Kelly was 10/23 for 144 yards, 1 INT & 1 TD pass.

Game 14:  NO 22 Bills 19.  Kelly was 17/35 for 211 yards, 3 INT's & 2 TD passes.

Game 15: SF 21 Bills 10.  Kelly was 26/42 for 265 yards, 3 INT's & no TD passes.

 

And remember that 1991 AFC Championship game against he Denver Broncos as we were heading to our 2nd straight SB?  You know the perfect weather day at Rich Stadium?  The Bills won that game 10 - 7 without scoring an offensive TD.

 

Kelly was 13/25 for for 117 yards, 2 INT's and no TD passes.

 

After seeing this, and I haven't even looked at a fraction of the games played between 1988 - 1993, I'll worry about Allen if at the end of NEXT SEASON he's still playing just average.

 

 

[Success]

14 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I'd love to see the scientific data. 

 

It's all out there.  The 2020 season & all of the success and statistical excellence, juxtaposed against the 1st 2 games this year...

 

[Jobot]

56 minutes ago, Rico said:

Troll post > Clown post. Sounds like Billi. 

 

Calibrating the OP, sorry to hurt your butt in the process.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Through the first two weeks PFF has him graded at 62.3, ranked 27th in the league, better than Lawrence, Roethlisberger, Tua, Rodgers, Zach Wilson. 

 

Average is 72.4. 

 

High - Brady at 93.0.

 

Low - Lawrence at 47.8.

 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Straight Hucklebuck

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Hey Nick Wright joined the forum.  

 

Nick Wright is a talking head that says outlandish things for attention, pretty much trolling intentionally.

 

I'm down on Allen and very concerned but still don't have a big enough sample size to know who he truly is yet (this season).

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Nick Wright is a talking head that says outlandish things for attention, pretty much trolling intentionally.

 

I'm down on Allen and very concerned but still don't have a big enough sample size to know who he truly is yet (this season).

Well Nick Wright has no nuance to his opinion. 

 

His take is Mahomes will go to the Super Bowl every season he plays and nobody else can eat. 

 

So I guess that means he is going to go to 15 straight Super Bowls. 

 

This is the Michael Jordan argument. If the bar is Michael Jordan, then I guess nobody else will measure up. 

[FilthyBeast]

12 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well Nick Wright has no nuance to his opinion. 

 

His take is Mahomes will go to the Super Bowl every season he plays and nobody else can eat. 

 

So I guess that means he is going to go to 15 straight Super Bowls. 

 

This is the Michael Jordan argument. If the bar is Michael Jordan, then I guess nobody else will measure up. 

 

Regarding Mahomes this is pretty much what the entire national media thinks...they've annointed him the GOAT already and assume he's going to easily surpass Brady and go to the SB every year even if they don't win like last season.

 

I like  Mahomes and have no argument against him being the best QB in the NFL right now but history has shown attrition happens and eventually he's not going to have Kelce, Cheetah, Andy Reid, etc around him and there will be down years/non playoffs season no matter what.

[dakrider]

I watched John Elway most of his career and he had many bad games statistically in his career and didn't look good at times but the primary thing was he was able to do enough to win the game.  And thats the bottom line,  not how many yards and TD's you get week to week.  You can also go look at some QB's that consistently put up good numbers but don't win games.  Its does the QB do enough to propel the team to win.  Style points don't buy much. 

[BurpleBull]

On 9/20/2021 at 1:13 PM, FilthyBeast said:

 

Agree, if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good and behind closed doors in Orchard Park there will be serious buyers remorse knowing that he had a fluke year during the weird fanless covid year.

 

Washington has a good dline and but has struggled mightily overall and is lucky to be 1-1 right now. And even if they were a top defense Allen played extremely well against many top 10 defenses last year and has to show that again given his contract. Really hope he can turn it around and come out firing.

 

How's life treating you in 2018? 

 

Steer clear of 2021, we're dealing with this thing called COVID-19.

[billsfan_34]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I agree and posted earlier that Bills fans have football's version of PTSS.  And don't forget that right before the great 20 year slump the Bill's lost FOUR straight Super Bowls.  That will shake a fan base for sure.

 

 

And after a solid outing in 2019 where Allen improved and helped lead the Bills to a playoff game that they earned not one they backed into (see 2017).

 

 

Exactly- folks need to relax. The kid had very few reps in pre season and just needs to get into a groove while focusing on fundamentals; Not throwing off his back foot for one. Our O line needs to play better. People forget our stud LT was very sick with CV.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

19 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

 

Imagine thinking an entire year is a fluke 

"Can you imagine a post so silly" Peyton Hillis said to Derek Anderson

23 minutes ago, dakrider said:

I watched John Elway most of his career and he had many bad games statistically in his career and didn't look good at times but the primary thing was he was able to do enough to win the game.  And thats the bottom line,  not how many yards and TD's you get week to week.  You can also go look at some QB's that consistently put up good numbers but don't win games.  Its does the QB do enough to propel the team to win.  Style points don't buy much. 

It's a different era.  The QB needs to consistently perform at a very high level to win most games in modern NFL.  Allen will play better.  All the toosl are there.  He just needs to settle down.  He has to if the goal is the SuperBowl.  

[Mango]

I am a big Allen the leader, the person, the playmaker. I have been admittedly hard on Allen the passer. I have said since he first started, he is the most exciting QB in the league for better or for worse. Anything can happen. I rallied that the odds were not in his favor, not that he couldn't do it, just that he would be an exception. But anybody who has watched Josh Allen at any point in his NFL career can't root against him. 

That said, he had a better year than I thought he ever would last year, so he CAN do it. From here on out it is on Josh to do it regularly. We are locked in on him for a long time now, whether he is great or terrible he is here. We may see some clunker years and games. It is frustrating. The fan base can and should talk about those games. 

But we are sooo far from calling Allen a mistake or permanently not good.

[Success]

53 minutes ago, dakrider said:

I watched John Elway most of his career and he had many bad games statistically in his career and didn't look good at times but the primary thing was he was able to do enough to win the game.  And thats the bottom line,  not how many yards and TD's you get week to week.  You can also go look at some QB's that consistently put up good numbers but don't win games.  Its does the QB do enough to propel the team to win.  Style points don't buy much. 

 

Anyone who has watched football for any length of time knows that every single amazing QB has had not only terrible games, but terrible stretches.  I get that Allen doesn't have the body of work to counterbalance a bad 2-game stretch just yet, but there seems to be an assumption that if you're going to call someone your "franchise guy," he's going to put up 350 & 3 TD's every week consistently or something.

 

Even Brady had terrible games.  He threw 4 picks against us once.  He wasn't great in either of the Giants Super Bowls (or both Rams SB's, for that matter).  Rogers, Montana, Wilson...you can go through the whole list and find 2 games in a row that were much worse than what we have seen from Allen this season.

 

[TheFunPolice]

Josh Allen went 20/26 for 194 yards and 2 TD vs the Packers in the final preseason game. 

 

So he's still the same Josh Allen, it's just that defenses are scheming up ways to disrupt the Bills passing attack. You want the team to peak in January/December. This is glorified preseason right now. 

 

I saw this on a Patriots message board, and I though it was an interesting stat:

 

In 6 super bowl winning seasons, the Patriots went:

2-0 twice
1-1 three times
0-2 once

So the key is to bank these wins early, by any means necessary, then be hitting on all cylinders come December and January (and hopefully February!) 

[SinceThe70s]

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

 

I'm down on Allen and very concerned but still don't have a big enough sample size to know who he truly is yet (this season).

 

So are you disagreeing with the guy who posted this:

 

"if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good"

Edited September 21, 2021 by SinceThe70s

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Some Rosen diehards die hard.

[Like A Mofo]

Well I guess that is it: From MVP candidate to Josh is done after 2 weeks against Pittsburgh and Miami....

 

Ah, the internet....

[r00tabaga]

A moth goes into a podiatrist’s office, and the podiatrist’s office says, “What seems to be the problem, moth?”

The moth says “What’s the problem? Where do I begin, man? I go to work for Gregory Illinivich, and all day long I work. Honestly doc, I don’t even know what I’m doing anymore. I don’t even know if Gregory Illinivich knows. He only knows that he has power over me, and that seems to bring him happiness. But I don’t know, I wake up in a malaise, and I walk here and there… at night I…I sometimes wake up and I turn to some old lady in my bed that’s on my arm. A lady that I once loved, doc. I don’t know where to turn to. My youngest, Alexendria, she fell in the…in the cold of last year. The cold took her down, as it did many of us. And my other boy, and this is the hardest pill to swallow, doc. My other boy, Gregarro Ivinalititavitch… I no longer love him. As much as it pains me to say, when I look in his eyes, all I see is the same cowardice that I… that I catch when I take a glimpse of my own face in the mirror. If only I wasn’t such a coward, then perhaps…perhaps I could bring myself to reach over to that cocked and loaded gun that lays on the bedside behind me and end this hellish facade once and for all…Doc, sometimes I feel like a spider, even though I’m a moth, just barely hanging on to my web with an everlasting fire underneath me. I’m not feeling good. And so the doctor says, “Moth, man, you’re troubled. But you should be seeing a psychiatrist. Why on earth did you come here?”

And the moth says, “‘Cause the light was on.