The Athletic: Bills aren’t just trying to avoid 3rd & long, they are trying to avoid 3rd down altogether

[YoloinOhio]

Quote

One way in which offensive coordinator Brian Daboll helped Allen last year was by calling a high percentage of passes on early downs. Those are downs when the defense might be playing with a run-stuffing nose tackle on the field or a third linebacker who struggles in coverage. The unpredictability of early downs makes it difficult for pass rushers to just pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

On early downs in neutral situations, the Bills passed the ball 63.1 percent of the time — tied for most in the league with the Kansas City Chiefs. McDermott is a defensive-minded coach, but he came up under Andy Reid with the Philadelphia Eagles and sees the value in passing on early downs.

“Well, I like scoring points,” McDermott said.

“I think there’s a lot of people out there that think, ‘OK, defensive head coach, he’s gonna run it 50 times a game.’ I love that mindset also. But we’re gonna try to stay ahead of the game as much as we can.”

Quote

The Bills passed the ball 53.5 percent of the time on early downs in 2019, which ranked 13th. A lot of coaches talk about avoiding third-and-long. But under Daboll, the Bills self-scouted and took it a step further: Why not try to avoid third down altogether?

“I think it all goes hand in hand,” Beane said. “You’ve built trust in the quarterback. You know you gotta score points. And the best way to do that is to avoid third down.”

According to Sportradar, the Bills produced a first down on first or second down 30.8 percent of the time last season, which ranked third. They felt that they had the personnel to be aggressive on early downs, and it paid off. It would be a surprise if that approach didn’t carry over to 2021.

 

Edited August 18, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[Patrick Duffy]

Lol, well that's one way to do it

[PromoTheRobot]

They are gunning for a Super Bowl AND a Grey Cup!

[Ralonzo]

 

 

If you try to get a first down on every down, you only have to succeed 1/3 of the time!

[Long Suffering Fan]

Peyton Manning had the same philosophy and it makes a lot of sense.  If your play selection allows you to get a first down in one or two downs, it gives you a margin for error.  You can have a drop (I'm looking at you Dawson), or a blown pass block (Ford....), and it doesn't kill the drive.  The pre-McBeane Bills - their play selection was predicated on needing all three downs.  That meant that one mistake often led to a punt.  What is a good offensive third down percentage?  40%?  50%?  It doesn't take a genius to see that planning on going to third down all the time, when you need 4-5 first downs to score on a normal drive, is going to lead to a lot of stalled drives.

 

The Bills offensive philosophy right now doesn't count on them being perfect and I like that.  Actually, I love that.

[Big Turk]

Bills offense is like a track meet...this might be the first time since Kelly that I expect them to pick up 3rd down no matter what the distance is.

[Logic]

This article by Sheil Kapadia is excellent all the way through.

I try to read every single article that gets published about the Bills, and this still contained a bunch of stuff I hadn't read elsewhere.

The quotes by Beane about the way he'll build the team moving forward (doesn't want to front-load contracts or kick the can down the road, will be looking to add veterans that are poor fits on their current team but could help the Bills) and by McDermott about embracing pass-happy offense ("we're gonna try to stay ahead of the league") were awesome.

I also found it very interesting, and had not previously heard, that Beane and Allen golfed together in Buffalo this offseason and informally talked contract to get a feel for what each side was looking for, resulting in the six-year deal, which is somewhere between Mahomes' mega-long term deal and Watson/Dak/Wentz/Goff's 4-year deals.

Great article.

[Long Suffering Fan]

Argh!  I missed it!  I was planning on being Yolo's 60,000th reaction and he is already at 60,003.  😀

[DJB]

16 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

Argh!  I missed it!  I was planning on being Yolo's 60,000th reaction and he is already at 60,003.  😀

 

I'll give him a few thumbs down and knock him back a couple. 😉

[Logic]

Quote

Schematically, the Bills’ most common coverages were Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders), Cover-1 (man coverage with a single high safety) and Cover-4 (a four-deep zone with three underneath defenders). Only two teams played Cover-4 at a higher rate than the Bills. McDermott came up under Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson and focuses his principles on stopping the pass first and foremost.

“It’s still a pass-driven league, a quarterback-driven league,” McDermott said. “Other than Donovan McNabb, Jim didn’t really like the quarterbacks around the league. He hated ’em. He despised the other quarterbacks. Back then, I thought that everyone saw the game that way. But it’s clear that not everyone did. Jim was so far ahead of his time.”

 

Quote

Last summer, Beane and Allen were golfing at a course that’s about 15 minutes away from the team’s practice facility. They were informally discussing the recent quarterback contracts around the league. Beane got the impression that Allen definitely wanted what he deserved, but he also wanted to give the organization some flexibility to produce a strong roster around him. In between drives and putts, seeds were planted that a six-year extension might be in the best interest of both parties.

“Those shorter deals, it’s harder to move things around,” Beane said. “And so with him now having eight years, six plus the two, I can see exactly what his cap numbers are, and as we either sign or re-sign other players here, I can structure those and say, ‘Ok Josh’s cap number is really high these two years. Let’s try and work the cap numbers for this other player lower those years.’”

 

Quote

Going forward, Beane hopes to find value by identifying veterans who might be in the wrong situation elsewhere or might have a skill set that can be maximized in the Bills’ schemes. He was asked if he plans to partake in salary cap gymnastics by adding voidable years to contracts and kicking the can down the road, so to speak.

“I’m trying to avoid it,” Beane said.

He noted that the Bills had to restructure a couple deals this offseason and had to add a voidable year to afford Sanders. But that was due to the unexpected cap decrease with COVID-19. Those were not part of the long-term planning.

“Will I do it? Yes. Is that the way I want to do it? No,” Beane said.

Just some other bits and pieces I enjoyed from the article. It's articles like this that make me more than happy to pay for The Athletic.

[Blainorama5]

The best defense is a good offense!  Loved how many yards (and first downs) we chewed up by getting first downs ON 1st and 2nd downs last season.  It feeds on itself for an offense as well - gets the momentum rolling right along on drives.

[Shaw66]

People talk about not wanting to pay for content but man, The Athletic does some good stuff consistently.   This article is excellent.   It gives a good feel for what Daboll is trying to do, and what Beane is trying to do.  

 

Thanks Yolo.

 

 

[4_kidd_4]

Sweep. The. Leg.

 

Do you have a problem with that?

 

No mercy.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

they are trying to avoid 3rd down altogether

 

"they are trying to avoid 3rd down"

[machine gun kelly]

6 minutes ago, 4_kidd_4 said:

Sweep. The. Leg.

 

Do you have a problem with that?

 

No mercy.

Funny I just watched the newer version of Karate Kid with Will Smith’s son at the gym.  You reminded me of that classic line.

 

it’s brassy, but can work when you have these guys.  I remember last year, I believe we threw more than any other team in the NFL last year on 1st down.

 

Opponents are going to be looking for it so we had better improve like we saw last week in rushing to keep them guessing.  Can’t be predictable and these guys know it.

[uticaclub]

Let's try to avoid 2nd down too

[billsfan89]

In years past when it was third and long I would assume it would be a greater than 90% chance that the Bills would punt. With Josh in 2020 I was pretty confident the offense would have at least a solid 40% chance to keep the ball (not sure on the actual percentages of the teams third down success but that's just what it felt like to me). I almost never feel like the team is out on a possession. 

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Let's try to avoid 2nd down too

Forget that -- kickoff and punt return TDs only!

[cgang]

Bills w/ lowest punt attempts per game last season:  https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/punt-attempts-per-game.

 

Time for a repeat!

[Patrick Duffy]

They definitely have the offensive fire power to be one of the teams that have fewest 3rd and 4th downs. They punted the least last season and I think that has a good chance to be repeated again this season.

 

Long as they can remain healthy for the most part this offense will once again be very difficult to stop. 

[TroutDog]

Yup to all above. 
 

As I mentioned in a number of game day threads, I not longer feel antsy when this Bills team gets behind the chains. Every single snap can yield something incredible and that is clearly due to their new mindset…along with a great QB and his weapons. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

There were years I felt like the Patriots literally designed their whole offense around plays that were to get 6-7 yards and that’s what they did every down. 

[DaggersEOD]

I think Peterman had a similar philosophy but chose more creative ways to avoid 3rd down. 

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, TroutDog said:

Yup to all above. 
 

As I mentioned in a number of game day threads, I not longer feel antsy when this Bills team gets behind the chains. Every single snap can yield something incredible and that is clearly due to their new mindset…along with a great QB and his weapons. 

Seriously. I actually get excited on 3rd and long because I know we're about to see something crazy from Allen. 😆

[aristocrat]

Warren sharp probably can’t stand right now.

 

I see d lineman with hands on their hips trying to keep up ala howie long.  

[Ralonzo]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Just some other bits and pieces I enjoyed from the article. It's articles like this that make me more than happy to pay for The Athletic.

 

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

People talk about not wanting to pay for content but man, The Athletic does some good stuff consistently.

 

The Athletic Free 6-month trial for Sprint/T-Mobile customers

[GETTOTHE50]

Imagine getting only first downs for weeks. That’s impossible-to-put-down-crack right there. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

The quotes by Beane about the way he'll build the team moving forward (doesn't want to front-load contracts or kick the can down the road, 

 

Yeah that's all fun and games until:

 

https://buffalonews.com/news/cash-to-cap-changes-bills-business-plan/article_8566bcd5-d5c7-5106-be6d-8d8a0c5665b0.html

[Orlando Tim]

2 hours ago, cgang said:

Bills w/ lowest punt attempts per game last season:  https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/punt-attempts-per-game.

 

Time for a repeat!

I did not realize we were first but it is amazing that two points a game is the distance from top to almost last. I would have thought that we punted more than average teams in the fourth because we were winning by a couple scores so often.

[HOUSE]

This was good reading 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I did not realize we were first but it is amazing that two points a game is the distance from top to almost last. I would have thought that we punted more than average teams in the fourth because we were winning by a couple scores so often.

 

 

The Bills oft-porous defense in the first half of the season forced the offense to keep the pedal down.

 

1990 Bills had +165 point differential.......1991 "no-punt-game" Bills +140......2020 all-time scoring team Bills +126.

[Orlando Tim]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills oft-porous defense in the first half of the season forced the offense to keep the pedal down.

 

1990 Bills had +165 point differential.......1991 "no-punt-game" Bills +140......2020 all-time scoring team Bills +126.

I am sorry but I clearly remember us up by 28 all 16 games. I had forgotten how poor the defense played early.

[John from Riverside]

Josh Allen has been pretty good on 3rd down....really good actually.

 

but wouldnt it be nice if we could just run for the 1st down on 3rd and 2?

[eball]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah that's all fun and games until:

 

https://buffalonews.com/news/cash-to-cap-changes-bills-business-plan/article_8566bcd5-d5c7-5106-be6d-8d8a0c5665b0.html

 

What possible reason would you have for posting a 2007 Jerry Sullivan column about cash-to-cap in this thread?

 

Dude, you need help.  I've never seen someone root harder for a GM to fail than you vis-a-vis Beane.

 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

Seriously. I actually get excited on 3rd and long because I know we're about to see something crazy from Allen. 😆

Yup, it's a good feeling. No longer basically expecting an INT or Incomplete pass like in the past before Allen. Actually I expect completions most of the time and try to predict which WR will make the grab for the 1st down.  Very fun offense to watch and beyond excited for the season to start

[ColoradoBills]

29 minutes ago, eball said:

 

What possible reason would you have for posting a 2007 Jerry Sullivan column about cash-to-cap in this thread?

 

Dude, you need help.  I've never seen someone root harder for a GM to fail than you vis-a-vis Beane.

 

 

I knew the article was behind a paywall but clicked on it to see if I could find a date when I seen the infamous "cash to cap" title.

It was completely blocked.

Thanks for posting what year that was.  2007 LOL I had to look up to find it was Marv who was GM back then.

[TheBrownBear]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

In years past when it was third and long I would assume it would be a greater than 90% chance that the Bills would punt. With Josh in 2020 I was pretty confident the offense would have at least a solid 40% chance to keep the ball (not sure on the actual percentages of the teams third down success but that's just what it felt like to me). I almost never feel like the team is out on a possession. 

Yep.  Thank you Josh Allen for making watching football fun again.

[skibum]

I never understood why so many teams run on first down. At first down, you know you still have three more chances if it doesn't go right, so why not shoot for the moon?

 

I'm not a big tennis fan, but I do know that 'first serve' is when they just rip it with everything they have, because they know if they fault, they get another shot. Second serve is the conservative serve - just make sure it's in bounds. Why isn't this same strategy applied to football? 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

What possible reason would you have for posting a 2007 Jerry Sullivan column about cash-to-cap in this thread?

 

Dude, you need help.  I've never seen someone root harder for a GM to fail than you vis-a-vis Beane.

 

 

 

You see what that milk of amnesia is doing to you?   

 

You were the one who dropped your 27 year season tickets because of your frustration with the Pegula's and the McDermott and Beane hires.

 

If you were so sure of Beane you should have got on 877-BB TICKS and talked to your rep.......

 

But nope.   You just had some more.

 

Quitters never win..........as you found out during playoff time last year when you couldn't get a ticket.........as you cried those tears of regret into the......."pillow of remorse", was it?

 

As for the article........I was replying to someone else's post and you ignore the context.........where @Logic was applauding the concept of not backloading contracts.........which is the key aspect of the "cash to the cap" philosophy that helped break your spirit as a fan.  

 

Beside the New England Patriots.........nobody has been able to avoid backloading contracts well enough to remain a legit SB contender year in and out for the length of a star QB's contract.

 

Beane knows that.

 

Saying he's not going to backload deals is just a form of lip service........talking down to perceived cap-ignorant fans who think that pushing cap debt forward is the root of all cap evil.

 

The reality is that making bad value decisions with your cap dollars is the root of cap woes.

 

Not the timing.........the time is malleable within the parameters of the salary cap.

 

Beane has had his share of those bad value decisions..........basically the entire 2018 free agent class he brought in.

 

But I've also praised him for every first round pick he's had...........praised his professionalism and fit with an organization whose ownership team does not serve as a steadying influence on sports operations...........and have praised a lot of his value free agent adds and re-signings.    

 

Beane has gotten A LOT better at his job since 2017.    Same with McDermott.   They have learned from mistakes and lived up with to their growth mindset mantra so far. 

 

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

 

 

Just some other bits and pieces I enjoyed from the article. It's articles like this that make me more than happy to pay for The Athletic.

You know how for years we talked about Belicheck being some 4-D chess master? It feels like that's what Beane can do