Mcshay Mock has Najee Harris to Buffalo

[FireChans]

58 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

PSA:

 

Use your high picks on big $ positions.

 

Needs change fast.

 

The Chiefs will be regretting using that 1st pick in 2020 on Clyde Edwards Helaire............and he was every bit the prospect of Harris and Etienne.

 

Running backs are still a relative dime-a-dozen.

 

The Bills will be needing to keep Josh Allen interested in their program for the next decade and the best way to do that is keeping those key positions stocked with difference makers.   You can draft RB's and OG's and off-ball LB's much later and develop them or buy them free agency without breaking the bank.

I'll go one step further.

 

Trade the pick. Either trade up or get a good player.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

17 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

So we only have one more year?

Yes. You only have as much time until Josh signs his 5 year x 50M per year or 250M deal.

 

At that point the Bills salary cap will be decimated. Veterans will have to be released to stay under the cap.

 

Harris is the quick fix we need now.

 

If he becomes our Derrick Henry,  that would be a great 1st round pick

[Beast]

6 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Yes. You only have as much time until Josh signs his 5 year x 50M per year or 250M deal.

 

At that point the Bills salary cap will be decimated. Veterans will have to be released to stay under the cap.

 

Harris is the quick fix we need now.

 

If he becomes our Derrick Henry,  that would be a great 1st round pick

 

Yeah, slow down with that 50 million a year contract talk.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Beast

[BillsDude]

Numerous early mock drafts last year were mocking RB Jonathon Taylor to the Bills too when at that time they had their first round pick. This yr I think the desire will be more real for a round one rb, or o-lineman who can bull doze block and d-line persons who can break through and smash the  passer

[PrimeTime101]

I think they fix O'line in FA

I think they get a one tech DT in FA that WILL take 2 people to block

 

if they do both?

 

Im for some Harris round 1

Edge round 2

LB round 3

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'll go one step further.

 

Trade the pick. Either trade up or get a good player.

 

 

I still like to get a volume of picks later so don't love trade-ups but if you can trade back or for a star player with that pick it makes sense.    50% of your #1 picks are likely to be gone after contract #1 so getting a sure multi-year difference maker at an important position is usually very worth it if drafting in the back half of the round.

[thurst44]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

This.

 

I don't see the Bills drafting RB 3 years in a row and in the first with their many needs.

 

I think they more likely go with BPA at a position of need.

 

 

They were 15-4 and most way-too-early analysts rate us from the 2nd to 4th best team in football. Reading this thread you would think our favorite team was below .500. Maybe we should just listen to our GM who has been clear that you don't use the draft to fill holes. Beane was the Executive of the Year, you know. We're in the position where we can afford to easily take the BPA. 

[Southern_Bills]

Harris would be a nice pick IMO. With that said there will be a number of fine OL and DL available there.

 

I haven't kept up with all the prospects this year so I'm not sure how one position group stacks up to others as far as depth. 

 

I do know Harris is top 2 at his position at least.

[Thurman#1]

IMO wildly unlikely. 

 

Never say never but IMO we won't pick an RB on the first two days. First round would shock me.

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Was gonna say I could see oline but the defensive depth just isn’t there in this draft Mcshay doesn’t even have a pass rusher going till 15 the depth is that poor..I’d rather go BPA and if that’s Najee I’m for it 

 

 

That's not poor depth, it's a poor top end. From what I'm hearing (not an expert, nor much of a college fan) the depth at pass rusher is really good this year, but with no Chase Youngs up top, which wouldn't matter to us anyway at #30.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I would hate for us to burn the assets required to get him.

 

Poor value for money pick.

 

No team should ever draft any RB in the first round!  Not enough impact on wins and losses to justify the cost.

 

I'm reflecting back on the good old days when we drafted CJ Spiller 9th overall.

 

Good God.

 

Except we arent picking 9th overall.

 

Or even in the top half.

 

We're picking 30th over. A couple of picks from the 2nd round.

 

Bills fans need to make a major shift and get used to what life is like picking at the end of the rounds. It's a different world. But that doesnt mean you get to stray off of BPA too far just to pick by player position. Too much reaching for need will kill a team. Look at Belichick's draft record picking late. Lot of interior OL busts when he was desperate for OL, but Sony Michel was a great pick there at 31.

[McBean]

I would love it

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

I would.. this year anyway for an Edge...does this make me a bad person?

 

Not at all, but it's definitely a red flag on your GM resume. haha

[Putin]

3 hours ago, gotme365 said:

That would be an awful pick especially since they drafted RBs the last 2 years. It’s not a smart investment 

So another DE who will play 20% of snaps?

[78thealltimegreat]

4 minutes ago, Putin said:

So another DE who will play 20% of snaps?

I was gonna say why did we even draft AJ Epenesa then like where does he play? He was technically our top pick last year

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Jeremy White was saying similar things the other day..I could see other positions obviously too but it is interesting to see the national media now starting to link the Bills to RBs  

 

No problem with it - if he runs between a 4.40 and 4.45.

 

If as predicted he runs closer to a 4.55+ - then No - I want nothing to do with him.
 

He was the top running back at a school with by far the best Oline - so I have no idea if he will be anything special, but his speed does not impress in highlights and I didn’t think he had to work for yardage.  I am not sure if in the NFL he is much better than Moss or Singletary.

 

If you are not getting a speed back in the sub 4.45 range - I think you are wasting your pick if you are the Bills.

 

To me Harris just is not worth the pick - it is like CEH in KC.  A first round pick that was no better than 3rd round guys like Singletary or Moss.  Maybe he will develop, but you have a limited 4 years - if I am drafting in the first round with the critical 5th year option - I am not drafting RB.

 

Harris becomes much better if I can shift back 10 picks into the 2nd round and acquire more picks, but not in the first.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

So you'd rather reach for the 4th or 5th best edge, LB, or CB instead of picking the BPA and one of the top RBs?

 

Dont get me wrong, I'd love to be able to fill a defensive hole there. But it's not like our RBs are set at all either, and we have a shot at one of the best in the draft.

 

 

Where a guy fits in the rankings at his position in any given year matters not at all.

 

Being the 5th best WR last year (according to draft position) meant you were Justin Jefferson. The year before it meant you were Mecole Hardman at #56. The year before that, Christian Kirk. The year before that Curtis Samuel. That's some major variation, and that's how it goes. There are good years and bad years for position groups.

 

Being the 5th best DE last year meant you were AJ Epenesa (again going by where they were drafted). The year before, Montez Sweat was 4th. Frank Clark was #10 his year and Arik Armstead was #4 the same year.

 

What matters is how good a guy is compared to all players in positions of reasonable need that year. 

 

I'd answer yes to your question in a second because I don't think RB is a position of reasonable need. Now, if they think Harris is a top ten player and that he sticks out way above everyone else at #30, I'd expect them to grab him. But I don't think they'll feel that way even if he's available.

[BillsShredder83]

4 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Jeremy White was saying similar things the other day..I could see other positions obviously too but it is interesting to see the national media now starting to link the Bills to RBs  

I've gone from thinking we should, to now thinking it's below priority of the oline,  and all positions on DL.

 

What I will say though is if the Bills decide to take harris/ etienne i'll be excited, I trust the front office, and it'll mean they've made a good decision.  (Wouldn't cry about Pitts or kadarius toney either)

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Where a guy fits in the rankings at his position in any given year matters not at all.

 

Being the 5th best WR last year (according to draft position) meant you were Justin Jefferson. The year before it meant you were Mecole Hardman at #56. The year before that, Christian Kirk. The year before that Curtis Samuel. That's some major variation, and that's how it goes. There are good years and bad years for position groups.

 

Being the 5th best DE last year meant you were AJ Epenesa (again going by where they were drafted). The year before, Montez Sweat was 4th. Frank Clark was #10 his year and Arik Armstead was #4 the same year.

 

 

Very good point, but I'd rather have Harris over another Epenesa.

[bobobonators]

I would be against a RB with the first pick. 
 

This offense is geared towards the pass - emphasize that. We have a RB on our practice squad that dominated Miami, call him up. Do we know how good Moss can be yet?
 

So much capital invested at RBfor a team that doesnt focus on running the ball is not a good move in my opinion. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by bobobonators

[Bob in STL]

4 hours ago, gotme365 said:

That would be an awful pick especially since they drafted RBs the last 2 years. It’s not a smart investment 

It depends on who the sign in free agency.  I can see several veteran players released to add cap money for a proven Edge rusher.  I doubt we can draft one at 30 that can make a big impact right away and we are ready to win now.  
 

Of we lose Milano (LB) or Williams (RT) then they could pick his replacement with this pick as well.  

[Buffarukus]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

It's BPA at a position that could use an upgrade. We ran fine during the year when Moss was around, but once he went down we had nothing. Get some better talent there at a good value spot in the draft.

 

 

we also did well last year singletary had huge ypa, but we also seemed to use him very sparingly. maybe it is him but even moss was running into brick walls alot..only he could do alittle better to drag them for a few yards.

 

i wouldnt hate the pick but i want the D to get playmakers again. we get the D back and our O is more then fine regardless of a nothing run scheme. 

[BillsFan130]

4 hours ago, Buffarukus said:

this seems like a lazy take. bills couldnt run. has to be the back! couldnt be the line or scheme. cover one did a good anaylisis and do to the constant shift in o line theres somthing our coaches just didn't like. it would be great to get a upgrade at any position but i dont see it rb as a top need unless it bpa

I think the answer is it’s both.

 

Rbs suck, and o line sucks.

 

RB is definitely a weakness though. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Buffarukus said:

we also did well last year singletary had huge ypa, but we also seemed to use him very sparingly. maybe it is him but even moss was running into brick walls alot..only he could do alittle better to drag them for a few yards.

 

i wouldnt hate the pick but i want the D to get playmakers again. we get the D back and our O is more then fine regardless of a nothing run scheme. 

 

I absolutely agree. Dont get me wrong, I'm only focusing on the Harris pick here because it's the main topic of the thread.

 

I'd say our Defensive Front 7 is the biggest area of weakness, followed by some OL needs. If it were completely up to me, we'd have the unicorn DE or LB waiting there for us at #30.

Additionally, after watching us screw up so badly with wasting early 1st round picks on Lynch and Spiller, I have been in the camp that pounded the table to never draft another RB in the 1st ever again.

 

Buuuuut... that was when we were always picking around #9-12, it's a little different at #30. And we have other ways and opportunities to address our needs besides the #30 draft pick (the rest of the draft, free agency, Beane's trades).

 

So if Harris (or even Etienne) is there, I wouldn't be upset if we snagged him.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by DrDawkinstein

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, thurst44 said:

They were 15-4 and most way-too-early analysts rate us from the 2nd to 4th best team in football. Reading this thread you would think our favorite team was below .500. Maybe we should just listen to our GM who has been clear that you don't use the draft to fill holes. Beane was the Executive of the Year, you know. We're in the position where we can afford to easily take the BPA. 

As controversial as it sounds the “majority” of draft picks annually by all teams are BPA at positions of need.  Even Beane (who I am a big fan of) said he chose BPA at positions of need in an interview during our last draft. (I was amazed he admitted it) Strict BPA draft picks happen far less often than fans realize. It has taken on mythical proportions over the decades even though it rarely happens. I have total faith in Beane, McDermott and their team of evaluators to choose the right players for our team, It’s going to be a fantastic upcoming season!
 

Go Bills!!!

[Buffarukus]

10 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I absolutely agree. Dont get me wrong, I'm only focusing on the Harris pick here because it's the main topic of the thread.

 

I'd say our Defensive Front 7 is the biggest area of weakness, followed by some OL needs. If it were completely up to me, we'd have the unicorn DE or LB waiting there for us at #30.

Additionally, after watching us screw up so badly with wasting early 1st round picks on Lynch and Spiller, I have been in the camp that pounded the table to never draft another RB in the 1st ever again.

 

Buuuuut... that was when we were always picking around #9-12, it's a little different at #30. And we have other ways and opportunities to address our needs besides the #30 draft pick (the rest of the draft, free agency, Beane's trades).

 

So if Harris (or even Entienne) is there, I wouldn't be upset if we snagged him.

 

so who do you give up on? obviously that would be a upgrade but singletary seems good in spots and moss is just a rookie. both had thier spots and im not sure which one you push down so soon.

[Beast]

Harris is a damned stud.

 

Draft this kid and it will make everyone on offense better. It will stop the defensive line from pinning their ears back, it will give you a very tough, elusive, has great vision and patience and is a RB that always falls forward and is a threat out of the backfield.

 

He may not have top end speed but his elusiveness and power are unmatched, IMO.

 

If he’s there at 30 overall, I hope the kid is the pick.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Beast

[DrDawkinstein]

19 minutes ago, Buffarukus said:

 

so who do you give up on? obviously that would be a upgrade but singletary seems good in spots and moss is just a rookie. both had thier spots and im not sure which one you push down so soon.

 

I let them work that out in camp. Bring in good competition and let the cream rise to the top. And I'm not really giving up on anyone since we have a 19-20 game schedule to think about now. RBs get banged up. Worth keeping a few around, especially when theyre all on rookie deals.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, bobobonators said:

This offense is geared towards the pass - emphasize that.

 

Yes and when we pass the ball to our RBs it is a wasted down. KC was giving no respect to Singletary. They begged us to throw him the ball and the result was predictably terrible. A running back with speed or power who can catch the ball in the flats is a huge weapon in the pass game. It isn't just about running. Allen needs another game breaker he can deliver the ball to.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So I was sitting here contemplating who Najee Harris reminds me of... height, weight, speed, burst... then I thought wait there was a guy on bama just like him... then I got here ... then I thought maybe go d end there instead of RB..

 

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

As controversial as it sounds the “majority” of draft picks annually by all teams are BPA at positions of need.  Even Beane (who I am a big fan of) said he chose BPA at positions of need in an interview during our last draft. (I was amazed he admitted it) Strict BPA draft picks happen far less often than fans realize. It has taken on mythical proportions over the decades even though it rarely happens. I have total faith in Beane, McDermott and their team of evaluators to choose the right players for our team, It’s going to be a fantastic upcoming season!
 

Go Bills!!!

The voice of wisdom.  I couldn’t agree more.  It’s always nice to hear need vs. boa, but the truth for almost every team is BPA at say four positions if need.  So if this team has decided we need a RB, Edge Rusher, CB, LB, TE, OL, they are going to look at their board say of these positions who is the best of one of these spots.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Buffarukus said:

 

so who do you give up on? obviously that would be a upgrade but singletary seems good in spots and moss is just a rookie. both had thier spots and im not sure which one you push down so soon.

Singletary is probably the weaker RB. He continues to miss blitzes and his catching abilities are bad. Mix in that blazing 4.62 and the decision to replace him with Harris would be easy.

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, thurst44 said:

They were 15-4 and most way-too-early analysts rate us from the 2nd to 4th best team in football. Reading this thread you would think our favorite team was below .500. Maybe we should just listen to our GM who has been clear that you don't use the draft to fill holes. Beane was the Executive of the Year, you know. We're in the position where we can afford to easily take the BPA. 

 

Beane also said he liked our RBs and they get too much of the blame for problems with the run.

 

I do listen to him. 

 

And every GM uses the draft to fill holes...QB, LB, DB, etc... They just try not to reach to fill those needs.

 

Folks get too wrapped up in a narrow interpretation of BPA.

 

The needs of a team a GM knows for certain, but the certainty regarding the grade assigned to a prospect on your draft board? That's a bit less of a certain thing.

 

It may easily be that even with a player rated 10 selections lower on your board you go with that player because the projected uncertain grade difference does not outweigh the certain need you are filling with the player graded slightly lower.

 

Or a highly rated prospect may be part of a deep position in the draft and you feel you can address it in the later rounds to focus on prospects where the draft is thin.

 

Or there could be a player high on your board, but you know other teams don't have the same high grade and you think you can nab that player when he falls to you in a later round. So you pass him up.

 

There is wiggle-room for GM judgement calls. If there weren't, teams could just load their draft boards into a robo-prospect selecting program, sit back, and enjoy some cocktails while the program runs their BPA draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by WideNine

[Buffarukus]

59 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Singletary is probably the weaker RB. He continues to miss blitzes and his catching abilities are bad. Mix in that blazing 4.62 and the decision to replace him with Harris would be easy.

 

i dont know. like i said he performed very well the year before with a aging frank gore. i think his elusiveness is a quality thats hard to replicate. speed is great but i didnt see him getting any openings that would have helped and if thats a factor i dont think moss is applying any afterburners Singletary lacks. i really dont know which direction the coaching staff would go but having a stud force that decision isnt the worst idea. i just think it can be had in other rounds or FA. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Buffarukus

[billieve420]

A better offensive line will make even the most average running back look decent. Focus on the lines in the offseason and bring in some competition at RB. I would like to see more of Antonio Williams as well. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by billieve420

[Bill from NYC]

12 hours ago, Doc said:

Is he a gifted runner, receiver and blocker?

Yes, no question.

[Bill from NYC]

11 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Drafting a running back in the 1st round when run blocking is bad = drafting Sammy Watkins when your quarterback is EJ Manual.

I do get your point but our OL isn't THAT bad!

 

EJ was a whole lot worse than this OL!!! 😲😨😬

[Bill from NYC]

5 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

So I was sitting here contemplating who Najee Harris reminds me of... height, weight, speed, burst... then I thought wait these was a guy on bama just like him... then I got here ... then I thought maybe go d end there instead of RB..

 

 

I have seen all of both of their carries at Alabama, probably every carry.

 

TJ was a fine player, but Najee is in a much higher class. They btw played behind the 2 best offensive line that I ever saw in Bama. The one that TJ played on was the one that flattened Notre Dame for the title, and was geared more toward the running game. Different times. 

 

Although I wouldn't hate it, I am not banging the drum to draft Najee in round 1. Frankly, I think that he will be gone by the time we select under any conditions. Of course, this is jmo.

 

Anyway, Najee is stronger, a MUCH better blocker, and twice as athletic as TJ. He also has developed into a fine receiver. I think that he will have a very good career, despite not having real breakaway speed. He works as hard as anybody and is very smart.

 

That said, I have never been a big fan of first round RBs., but Najee is not a CJ Spiller. Again, the team that selects him will be very happy.

 

Once again, JMO.

[H2o]

I'd be good with Harris @ #30 if he's there. At 6'2" and 230lbs he can do it all and would be a true 3-down RB for this team. 

 

 

[timekills17]

14 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

It's why it's called a mock draft.

 

....always time to make fun of it.

 

Here I thought you were going to go with "Because then we all get to mock it."

[TBBills]

Not a fan of drafting another RB for a team that likes to pass the ball. Already proven last year you don't need to run the ball, I don't see Beane doing it.