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The more I think about it the more I realize ertz needs to be a Bill


Adamb412

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Don't forget this regime believes strongly in player development.  While they acknowledge they need more production at TE it doesn't mean that they are looking to cut bait with Knox necessarily.  If they can add somebody through the draft if the chips fall that way I would assume they would but I think most importantly they are having private conversations with Knox right now telling him he needs to take his game to a higher level in Year 3.  I don't see us signing Ertz.  (In my opinion)

Edited by BillsPride12
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30 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Agreed Hap, one of my main takeaways from Beane's end of year presser is that he saw us struggle against elite TEs all year and realized we don't have anyone on our roster that can threaten opposing defenses and be a real match up nightmare. Hope we can get one, it would add a whole new dimension to our offense.

 

If we went the free agency route, I'd prefer signing Jonnu Smith rather than Ertz. He's an athletic freak (in the 2017 combine, Smith 'placed second in the vertical jump and short shuttle, tied for third in the bench press, fourth in the broad jump, and finished sixth in the 40-yard dash in his position group'), is still only 25, and is a budding star in the league IMO. Smith was definitely under-used in Tennessee's offense with their focus on the run game and their other receiving weapons and was asked to block more after Lewan's injury, but still put up career-highs in receptions (41), receiving yards (448) and touchdowns (eight) in 2020. Spotrac puts his market value at $8 million per season. Given that I think we'll make a few cuts, I think we'll have more cap space and I'd offer him a four year $30 million deal. 

 

We'll see what happens with the cap and who we cut so the draft might be the better option when the time comes, but Smith would be my #1 TE target in free agency and a genuine buy-low signing given that his value was suppressed by the Titans and he would have more opportunities in our passing attack. Interested to hear what others think, Go Bills!

 

 

 

I think Smith would in any normal year get a lot more than $8m AAV. However, maybe with the covid Cap he is gettable at that price. 

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8 hours ago, Success said:

I feel like people are giving up on Knox a little too quickly.

 

I still see all kinds of potential there.  

 

Yep , if the cap is really as low as $175m next year, bills will need Knox to step up his game on his rookie deal for sure.   Instead, Go get me another top speed WR to replace JB and Kroft on the roster.  

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No way he’s gonna cost a 2nd rounder.  Philly might even cut him.  But I do like the idea of bringing him in.  Philly has been a dumpster fire.  I think Ertz still has a lot left.  I also think a guy whose wife is one of the best soccer players in the world is gonna be motivated to stay in great shape into his mid 30’s.  

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Eh, I think TE will need to wait.  Also, I thought Knox was showing signs of growth in the second half of the season.  He was very raw coming into the league, but has gamebreaking potential if/when he puts it all together. Think of him as the Josh Allen of tight ends.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a big leap in his third year.

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30 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Eh, I think TE will need to wait.  Also, I thought Knox was showing signs of growth in the second half of the season.  He was very raw coming into the league, but has gamebreaking potential if/when he puts it all together. Think of him as the Josh Allen of tight ends.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a big leap in his third year.


Knox rarely catches a pass downfield cleanly.  Kind of a fatal flaw for a Tight End.  I think he found his niche in the 2nd half of season more as a gadget/halfback.  He’s got no problem catching dump-offs and using his athleticism.  Heck, I’d rather line up Knox in the backfield on passing downs than Singletary.  This offense needs a Tight End who’s a downfield passing threat.  

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11 hours ago, delirious said:

Knox is one of the most athletic TEs in the NFL. He just learned the position in college, playing in a mickey mouse offense. To Daboll's offense that has been described as complex. 

 

Knox is a newborn fawn in this system, and he deserves some more time. He has the potential to be one of the best.  He has Kittle and Kelce measurables. 

 

Yes he needs to work on his hands, but thinking we need some downward trend expensive TE in a year where the cap is expected to decrease, is one spicy take

 

Agree with everything you stated.  However with Kroft being a FA they will need to find a #2 TE, ideally if they could find one that is strong blocker and puts a little more fear in the defense than Smith going out on patterns, they could sign someone for that role and let Smith go.  Currently two roster spots are taken up for backup TE, one for blocking, one for pass catching if Knox can't play for some reason.  Also agree they won't likely spend a lot of money for that role, but could see them going $5 to $6 mil particularly if they can shed Smith $2.2 mil in process. 

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11 hours ago, delirious said:

Knox is one of the most athletic TEs in the NFL. He just learned the position in college, playing in a mickey mouse offense. To Daboll's offense that has been described as complex. 

 

Knox is a newborn fawn in this system, and he deserves some more time. He has the potential to be one of the best.  He has Kittle and Kelce measurables. 

 

Yes he needs to work on his hands, but thinking we need some downward trend expensive TE in a year where the cap is expected to decrease, is one spicy take


he also needs to run routes like Beasley 

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

No way he’s gonna cost a 2nd rounder.  Philly might even cut him.  But I do like the idea of bringing him in.  Philly has been a dumpster fire.  I think Ertz still has a lot left.  I also think a guy whose wife is one of the best soccer players in the world is gonna be motivated to stay in great shape into his mid 30’s.  

Just because they are competitive in that commercial?? 

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35 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


he also needs to run routes like Beasley 

Just because they are competitive in that commercial?? 

Not sure what commercial you’re talking about, but there’s a big difference for a guy who’s made a ton of money to have a wife who basically lives the same lifestyle as a football player versus having a wife who needs help with the kids at home.  Each situation is different but I’d bet on Erst wanting to play football as long as he can.  

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17 hours ago, 947 said:

Ertz looked like hot garbage this year, he has lost more than a step. Not to mention his $12.5M cap hit...

Yeah 36 catches and 1 td is a huge red flag dropoff? Plus that contract is not going to cut it. At this point we might have to draft someone and hope they stick. Done with Kroft, Sweeney, Smith & Gilliam. They bring very little to helping Josh. 

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I like the idea of adding a good TE.  Hard to get one ready right out of the draft, so a FA is the way to go.  IMO, please give up the idea of giving up a 2nd rounder, those are way too valuable now for cost control. 

 

I like Knox but we could use adding a really good TE.  Ertz after he is cut is certainly a possibility, along w J Smith  of TN or H Henry.  The trick for Beane is to get one that doesn't break the bank.

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18 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Well Philly has like the third worst cap situation in the league behind only the Saints and Rams so it’s worth looking into 

 

So that means he is probably getting cut then.

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Knox definitely improved later in the season - and I was critical of having him start over Kroft for a decent part of the first half or so. I do believe there's room for a good deal more improvement from him. Thing is, we might have to wait another year for that to occur - i.e. after next season.

I currently view Knox as a decent #2 TE, and we need still a quality #1.

I've always liked what I saw from Sweeney, and hope he can come back healthy to compete. I think he was probably a more 'rounded' TE than Knox prior to his Covid problems, and I thought he had a chance to push guys on the roster this season.

Sweeney doesn't have the potential ceiling of Knox, but I'd say his floor is much higher.

 

An observation from comments by Beane at his presser, is that any receiver, be it WR or TE, needs to be playing consistently (regularly) for them to get featured more in the offense. Both Knox and Kroft had to miss time, as did John Brown, and as a result, weren't necessarily as 'in synch' with Allen as others were.

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20 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

He's almost as explosive as kelce, younger, and a match up nightmare. We should give Philly a 2nd round pick for ertz and cut brown and kroft. Keep knox though

I agree but I think year 3 Knox figures it out. He is just learning the TE position. I think Josh Allen and this loss motivates him and helps him understand himself, what he’s capable of, and what is expected of him. And I believe the Bills believe that as well. So with the cap space being an issue and us possibly not being able to resign Milano and Williams we grab maybe a Greg Olsen but not a top tier player(which I think Knox will eventually come). Oh n I’d keep Milano over Williams. Unpopular opinion in some circles but the draft for RT is better then most and Williams has some flaws. Milano has none. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-rumors-could-one-afc-004715711.html
 

looks like a Philly writer thinks Ertz and Bills would be good match.  

 


Saw this earlier

 

Over the hill and a $12 cap hit. 

Edited by SlimShady'sSpaceForce
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25 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

I'm not big on signing Ertz but I think we can handle a $12 cap hit 

 

Not in 2021.  Milano and Edmunds both have a cap estimate of $13 Mil.  

 

Spotrac has the Bills ~$6 mil Over 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

 

over the caps says 

Contracted Players (41 total)

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills/

Total Cap Liabilities: $178,136,056

Top 51: $176,094,900

Team Cap Space: $1,635,899

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17 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

If traded, I don’t believe the team that trades for Ertz would be on the hook for the whole $12.5M. According to Over the Cap’s Calculator, Philly would still be on the hook for about $4.5M if traded. 

 
he’s got 1 year $8m left on his deal.  He’s either getting cut or maybe Philly gets lucky and teams like Indy or Bills both want him and have to give up a 6th or 5th rounder.  Can’t see him going for more than that unless the League completely dismisses last year in Philly as a dumpster fire.  

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I love, love Ertz. A couple of years ago, he would be exactly what this offense needed. But he looked like a different player last year. It could just be injuries and he will bounce back. But guys fall apart so quick in football. It makes me nervous. 
 

but I won’t complain for a second if we kicked the tires on him.

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Ertz could end up returning to form. He had an injury-plagued year, but is one year removed from 88 catches. And he had been a model of consistency and high production for years. 
 

That said, how is he better than Knox?  If you watch his highlights, he goes out 7 yards and makes a catch. That’s it. You just wonder if the Bills really wanted to make Knox a big part of their offense, they could. They just don’t, either by design or because Josh doesn’t want to take those 6-yard dump downs to the TE. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 
he’s got 1 year $8m left on his deal.  He’s either getting cut or maybe Philly gets lucky and teams like Indy or Bills both want him and have to give up a 6th or 5th rounder.  Can’t see him going for more than that unless the League completely dismisses last year in Philly as a dumpster fire.  

According to Spotrac & Over the Cap, his Cap Hit in 2021 is $12.471M.

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/cap/

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1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

According to Spotrac & Over the Cap, his Cap Hit in 2021 is $12.471M.

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/cap/

He’s got 1 year $8.25m left on his contract. The rest is bonus amortization which is irrelevant to the team who trades for him.  Philly actually saves no money trading him vs. cutting him since the 8.25m isn’t guaranteed.  For a team way over the cap and who didn’t want to extend his contract because his replacement (Goedert) is in the roster, I can’t see a scenario where Ertz is on their roster in 2021.  

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11 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Not in 2021.  Milano and Edmunds both have a cap estimate of $13 Mil.  

 

Spotrac has the Bills ~$6 mil Over 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

 

over the caps says 

Contracted Players (41 total)

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills/

Total Cap Liabilities: $178,136,056

Top 51: $176,094,900

Team Cap Space: $1,635,899

I was just messing with ya.  You said $12, not $12 Mil ;)

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On 1/27/2021 at 11:25 PM, delirious said:

Knox is one of the most athletic TEs in the NFL. He just learned the position in college, playing in a mickey mouse offense. To Daboll's offense that has been described as complex. 

 

Knox is a newborn fawn in this system, and he deserves some more time. He has the potential to be one of the best.  He has Kittle and Kelce measurables. 

 

Yes he needs to work on his hands, but thinking we need some downward trend expensive TE in a year where the cap is expected to decrease, is one spicy take


Yes this 100%. His breakout is coming and I think he will see a Tonyan-like break out. In fact, their stories are very similar. Both high school quarterbacks turned receiver who came out very raw. Knox came from a bigger school but Tonyan was a five year college player. 
 

Knox was hurt his senior year of high school, barely played. That led to him walking on at Ole Miss where he only played in 18 games. He’s a total baby deer to the position, not just the scheme. He will get there. Tonyan broke out in year 4, I think Knox breaks out in year 3. 

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