Could John Brown be Released Next Off-Season?

[loyal2dagame]

If Brown is gone next year,  it won't be from being released.  He has serious value and if the Bills deem him expendable (which i doubt) i would hope he'd be traded to get some return on that value. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by loyal2dagame

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

No! Why would smoke be remotely thought of as release candidate. I can think of 4-5 players way more in line for release. Smoke is home run hitter and must be accounted for. 

[BearNorth]

Assuming Smoke doesn't have serious injuries which reduce his top end speed, he is still one of the fastest WR's in the league and takes the top end off defenses, as he often ties up their fastest most athletic DB.  Diggs Beasley

and Davis feast as a result.

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by BearNorth

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Drugs are bad. 

[QLBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

Why do people want to release good players all the time? Stop worrying about the cap. 

Agree! Bills created this team on purpose. We don’t need to add too many more cogs to remain contenders or get to the SB. Our depth is really solid across the board. I could see a slight trimming of this roster. But nothing drastic. I don’t expect the Bills to be very active in FA. I see us filling via draft and strategic FA signings. We focus on resigning our own and adding at DL, CB, OL, TE.

[Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Restructure.  I listened to a podcast where they described how that could look. The market is not going to look good for a 31 yo receiver coming off injuries if the cap is lowered. They could extend him a year and guarantee a little more money in exchange for a lower cap hit both seasons. This would be a take it or leave it situation. Same thing for Vernon Butler and Q Jefferson.

If I was a gambling man, Butler and Jefferson will not be on the roster next year.  Not impressed with either especially at their salary.  We need a pass rush desperately.  

[dpberr]

When John Brown is on the field, his presence makes the engine operate at its peak efficiency.  I'd dare to say he's Josh Allen's favorite receiver from a confidence standpoint.  I wouldn't want the Bills to let him go.  

 

I don't think there's any defense in the AFC that has the resources to shut both a 100% healthy John Brown and Stefon Diggs down, and it'll prove to be a catalyst in the playoffs.     

 

  

[nucci]

55 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I don't want him gone, but the thumbs up I gave was for the always appreciated Nuch gift of brevity!

ha, thanks.....he also could not be released

[HOUSE]

No, his value is to high and he is now a tradable  commodity

[OrtonHearsaWho]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

I tell anyone considering this... PLEASE listen to the Cover 1 podcast with Greg Tompsett from the bye week I believe, about the Bills 2021 cap situation.

 

While certain media types (WGR, Fairburn & Buscaglia on the Athletic) are bemoaning the Bills cap situation in 2021, they can do a lot, rather easily, to give themselves cap space.

With rollover from this year, we’re projected to have roughly $5M in cap space.

 

Easier cuts like Vernon Butler ($6.8M saved), Tyler Matakevich ($3.35M) and Lee Smith ($2.25M) can be made. That saves a total of $12.4M

 

John Brown, Jerry Hughes, and Micah Hyde can all be re-signed, lowering all of their 2021 cap hits, by an average of about $3M-$4M each. That saves another $10M-$12M.
Also, their 2022 years of their contracts (except maybe Hyde, would be relatively easy to get out of if Hughes/Brown regress further in 2021). 

So with those cuts and extensions, we’re at about $27M-$29M.

 

Lastly you can restructure contracts. This is usually reserved for players who you plan on keeping. You basically turn their salary for 2021 into a signing bonus which gets evenly divided throughout the length of the contract. Someone Ike Diggs is perfect for this, gives him more money up front, and gives us a year to hold off on totally redoing his contract. It also saves about $7.5M-$8M on his 2021 cap hit.

 

So right there, without anything very painful at all, I’ve built up the Bills 2021 cap space to roughly $35M-$37M. 
 

Then looking at a guy like Milano, maybe the injury allows him to take a deal that is more based on incentives, and has an overall value of maybe $11M/aav, but the cap hit for the first year is only say, $7M. Another $6M on Feliciano.

 

Our draft class should be cheaper since we pick later, maybe $3.5M, and then re-sign outstanding free agents (Dean Marlowe, Taiwan Jones etc etc) for veteran minimums of roughly $1M each (let’s say 6 guys make the roster at the end of the day, a cost of maybe $8M total).

 

We’ve filled a roster, re-signed two of our three top UFA’s, and added 6 draft picks, a complete roster, for about $25M of that $37M-$39M in cap space. 
 

That leaves us with about $12M-$14M to play with in the UFA market, or make trades, or keep in space and roll over into 2022 when Allen and Edmunds will likely be on their 5th year options and more space will be needed. 

 

That was entirely too informative...you have no business on a message board

[Mickey]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Could yes.  Could means possibility.  An mini-asteroid COULD hit Fixborough stadium forcing P*ts to play one of their games in Buffalo.

 

Other than possibility it is just idle speculation.

 

Just another post inspired by Madden Franchise Mode.

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

If Brown is healthy in the off-season, his contract is a bargain.  I don't see why he would re-structure for less. 

 

Whether we keep him depends on the cap.  If it goes down, we have tough decisions to make.  I don't think Brown is at the top of the cut list though.  That list starts with Star and Murphy

I think that the Bills will gladly welcome back Star.

 

This is the last year of Murphy's contract, so he's not an issue.

[Bob in STL]

Anything can happen .... I trust Beane and McD too make the best decisions for the team ... and not to make them until they have to.  

[KGun12TD]

I hope he heals and come back. Our offense is a whole lot of trouble for Defenses when he's on the field.

[Virgil]

20 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

I think that the Bills will gladly welcome back Star.

 

 

If the defense continues to play like this for the rest of the season and they need to get cap space, I think he's gone.  Nothing against him, but they would prove he's not needed.

 

Happy to be wrong though

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Weatherman said:

If I was a gambling man, Butler and Jefferson will not be on the roster next year.  Not impressed with either especially at their salary.  We need a pass rush desperately.  

Nor should they be. Star will be back and I can see Sean drafting another DT.  It's highly unlikely Smoke goes anywhere next year. There's plenty of other areas to trim the cap fat.

[Da webster guy]

Zero chance.  If you keep Trent Murphy at the same cap number this year, you definitely keep one of your top offensive players next year.   Restructuring his deal is likely though.

 

Diggs is playing smart as far as not taking hits, getting down, getting out of bounds etc. but if he goes down and we don't have Smoke either, that's a big hurt.  Gabe Davis is doing well, but he's mostly getting schemed open.  Not ready to take on #1 CB's from other teams.

 

Also too much chemistry between Josh and John Brown.   Right now Beane's job is to keep #17 as comfortable as possible with strong continuity into next year.  He's probably going to restructure Morse if they keep him at all, but other than maybe a stud center I don't see why this entire offense isn't back again next year.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

If Brown is gone next year,  it won't be from being released.  He has serious value and if the Bills deem him expendable (which i doubt) i would hope he'd be traded to get some return on that value. 

 

I read through the entire thread waiting for someone to mention this.

He will NOT BE CUT.  A trade, maybe.

$8 Million for a team to take on his contract would be very enticing to a lot of teams.

 

That being said he most likely stays and I am happy with that. 

[Punching Bag]

17 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Zero chance.  If you keep Trent Murphy at the same cap number this year, you definitely keep one of your top offensive players next year.   Restructuring his deal is likely though.

 

Trent Murphy is a UFA - no restructure.

 

 

YEAR		AGE	BASE SALARY	SIGNING	ROSTER	WORKOUT	MISC.	CAP HIT	DEAD CAP	YEARLY CASH
2018		27	$2,625,000	$1,750,000	$406,250	$100,000	-	$4,881,250	$7,975,000	$8,381,250($8,381,250)
2019		28	$5,800,000	$1,750,000	$1,000,000	$100,000	$150,000	$8,800,000	$6,600,000	$7,070,803($15,452,053)
2020		29	$6,425,000	$1,750,000	$1,000,000	$100,000	$500,000	$9,775,000	$8,775,000	$8,025,000($23,477,053)
2021		30	UFA

[In Summary]

I don't see Davis as a direct replacement for Brown.  Lose Brown and replace his speed with ...? 

[JoshAllenReceipts]

6 minutes ago, In Summary said:

I don't see Davis as a direct replacement for Brown.  Lose Brown and replace his speed with ...? 

 

Will Fuller.

 

I talked about this in another thread.

 

The Bills need to cut John Brown and sign Will Fuller as an upgrade.

 

Fuller on 2021 Bills = 40 points per game on Offense.

Edited December 10, 2020 by JoshAllenReceipts

[Rc2catch]

I don’t think he’s safe that’s for sure, I like the guy but from a business standpoint his deal was always an easy out after two seasons. It doesn’t help him they drafted two receivers and one is looking impressive. I could 100% see them moving on and putting that money elsewhere. Offensive line and I’m guessing we’ll be releasing some of the defensive line which will need to be replaced. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 hours ago, Weatherman said:

If I was a gambling man, Butler and Jefferson will not be on the roster next year.  Not impressed with either especially at their salary.  We need a pass rush desperately.  

If they don’t agree to massive pay cuts I would release them, but then you have to find replacements and you have about 4mil in dead cap. 
 

 As for pass rush it’s looking like a good year for pass rushers in the late first or second rounds of the draft. Usually the good DE pass rush prospects are gone by then, but the early mocks have other positions going early this year. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 hours ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

WR is starting to become a difficult question.

 

I’m not sure how much better they think Gabe can get. Aside from height he has an immense vertical, average speed hips and shiftiness, playing great for a rookie. But I’m not sure how much he has left to grow. He is credited with 1 drop in 39 targets, that’s pretty impressive for a rook. 
 

Diggs is awesome, inside, outside, slot.. can do it all. 

 

Beasley is a specialist all shake no speed (slot, middle, underneath), Brown is a specialist, all speed no shake (outside, outs, 9 routes comebacks) they are both match up dependent. 
 

one beats the zone inside all day, the other stretches the defense like no one else on the roster can. 
 

im not sure it at some point you need more versatility in each guy to keep the defense guessing.

[John from Riverside]

28 minutes ago, JoshAllenReceipts said:

 

Will Fuller.

 

I talked about this in another thread.

 

The Bills need to cut John Brown and sign Will Fuller as an upgrade.

 

Fuller on 2021 Bills = 40 points per game on Offense.

Doesnt  he get hurt a lot?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Think he either restructures fairly significantly as in pay cut or he's gone.  Cut Brown Morse, Butler, and Smith saves $22.1M   Cut Addison could save another $6.25M.  The $22M would allow them to resign Mongo, Milano, & Williamsand some mid range FA signings depending on the actual cap, maybe a legit edge rusher to replace Addison.

 

While they don't use WAR in football directly, thinking about it from that standpoint, IMO justifies cutting Brown and have Davis take his spot and McKenzie Hodgins takes Davis role.

 

To the comments about surrounding Allen with as many weapons, those weapons are Mongo, and Williams.  Think they need them more than Brown.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

31 minutes ago, JoshAllenReceipts said:

 

Will Fuller.

 

I talked about this in another thread.

 

The Bills need to cut John Brown and sign Will Fuller as an upgrade.

 

Fuller on 2021 Bills = 40 points per game on Offense.

How can we be sure he is as effective with out his special go-go juice 

[BillsFan619]

6 hours ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

I’ve thought about this but I definitely hope not!

[Don Otreply]

Why T F would they break up one of the best receivers groups in the league? Release him? No, trade him?  could be..., 
there are plenty of tier two players to let go should it come to a money situation. 

[Orlando Tim]

The two big questions to me are: does Brown show up for the playoffs and is Mackenzie ready to be our reciever to take the top off defenses? If brown ends the year with less than 500 yards including playoffs I think he is likely to be gone 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

Why T F would they break up one of the best receivers groups in the league? Release him? No, trade him?  could be..., 
there are plenty of tier two players to let go should it come to a money situation. 

 

I wouldn't break them up.  Personally my point about a trade was that Brown is way too good to be cut like others were saying.

@Over 29 years of fanhood talked about more versatility to keep defenses guessing.  I would argue that with the remaining season still to

be played next years off season/camp/preseason I think the base core of Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Davis can take the passing game to another level.

 

Having the core play with Allen another year and getting the comfort level up even higher could allow Daboll to get the O to a SB winning level.

 

The question is the 2 FAs (McKenzie and Roberts).  What to do about them?

[Deadstroke]

6 hours ago, JohnNord said:

It’s a possibility but way too early to tell.  A lot depends on the cap, how Brown performs when he returns from injury,how Davis performs at WR 2, and where the Bills end up this postseason

How about the speed factor?  When healthy, Brown is by far the fastest receiver on the roster.

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, In Summary said:

I don't see Davis as a direct replacement for Brown.  Lose Brown and replace his speed with ...? 

You wouldnt replace his speed with Davis.  I think Davis can become a starting outside wr.  Down the field he excelled in college in contested catches over 20 yards. Creates a similar threat down the field just accomplishes it in a differant way.  I think a day 2 or 3 day pick would be need to be added as well for me to think Buffalos offense was more potential.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I wouldn't break them up.  Personally my point about a trade was that Brown is way too good to be cut like others were saying.

@Over 29 years of fanhood talked about more versatility to keep defenses guessing.  I would argue that with the remaining season still to

be played next years off season/camp/preseason I think the base core of Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Davis can take the passing game to another level.

 

Having the core play with Allen another year and getting the comfort level up even higher could allow Daboll to get the O to a SB winning level.

 

The question is the 2 FAs (McKenzie and Roberts).  What to do about them?

Yeah you hit it well here. It’s a really tough evaluation.  Every WR on the roster does at least one thing extremely well.

 

Diggs is probably the guy that does many things well. 
 

I guess the juggling act is do you risk replacing some guys that do one thing really well in the hopes of getting a guy that does multiple things well and can help the team even more? 
 

 

[Mat68]

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I wouldn't break them up.  Personally my point about a trade was that Brown is way too good to be cut like others were saying.

@Over 29 years of fanhood talked about more versatility to keep defenses guessing.  I would argue that with the remaining season still to

be played next years off season/camp/preseason I think the base core of Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Davis can take the passing game to another level.

 

Having the core play with Allen another year and getting the comfort level up even higher could allow Daboll to get the O to a SB winning level.

 

The question is the 2 FAs (McKenzie and Roberts).  What to do about them?

I keep Mckenzie and on the fence with Roberts.  His subtle safe but consistant returns flips the field and helps Buffalo win big in the hidden yards.  I could see him stay or they move on.  With Mckenzie getting more play his yipps in the return game could be behind him.

[colin]

unless he won't play ball AND keeps getting hurt, i think he remains a bill.

 

if he gets back to full health for the playoffs and does john smoke brown things, it's gonna be big.

 

i remember thinking (and then reading other guys say the same thing here) that a top flight WR on our team woulda made the world of difference in the houston playoff game.  well we have that now in Diggs, but the idea was not to upgrade brown, but to upgrade the whole O with a new WR.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Yeah you hit it well here. It’s a really tough evaluation.  Every WR on the roster does at least one thing extremely well.

 

Diggs is probably the guy that does many things well. 
 

I guess the juggling act is do you risk replacing some guys that do one thing really well in the hopes of getting a guy that does multiple things well and can help the team even more? 
 

 

 

If Daboll stays (which I think he does) you go one more year with what you got.  All these WRs are extremely smart and they could take the playbook

to another level.  At least that's how I see it.  After next year there probably will be a change and it most like will be Brown.

 

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

 

 

 

I keep Mckenzie and on the fence with Roberts.  His subtle safe but consistant returns flips the field and helps Buffalo win big in the hidden yards.  I could see him stay or they move on.  With Mckenzie getting more play his yipps in the return game could be behind him.

 

I think it's the biggest question of the off season for the WRs.  They would have to quickly sign who they want to keep because I'm sure some other team

would bring either in.  

 

Good point about McKenzie.  Roberts is playing so well this season too.  Tough choices.

The only other thing I can think of as an option is to find a rookie who could handle both guys roles.  I would leave such names to be given by

posters who know a lot more about college players than I.

[Buff76ers]

6 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

That was true when we were adjusting to life without him, but against a tough Niners Defense, Josh Allen and the Offense were machine-like in their execution without John Brown in the mix.   I think we're just starting to see the explosive ability of Gabriel Davis - He does it in a different way than Brown, but at UCF he was a monster deep threat, and seems to be showing that skill in the NFL already.

 

I don't doubt that we'll be even more lethal with him back, and with the way we throw it around, we need to prioritize having 4 good WR's on the roster every year, but does one of them need to be John Brown next year?... at that cap hit?... I'm not sure...

 

 

Ya I get your point about Davis and he does look the part but man when smoke is in the lineup and Davis is the 4 man that is scary.  Restructure may be the way to go but I wouldn't press any buttons cause we are really not hurting in many areas where we need that money.  

[letsgoteam]

36 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I wouldn't break them up.  Personally my point about a trade was that Brown is way too good to be cut like others were saying.

@Over 29 years of fanhood talked about more versatility to keep defenses guessing.  I would argue that with the remaining season still to

be played next years off season/camp/preseason I think the base core of Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Davis can take the passing game to another level.

 

Having the core play with Allen another year and getting the comfort level up even higher could allow Daboll to get the O to a SB winning level.

 

The question is the 2 FAs (McKenzie and Roberts).  What to do about them?

You resign them both, solid team cogs that do their job. I mean how much are they going to cost?

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, letsgoteam said:

You resign them both, solid team cogs that do their job. I mean how much are they going to cost?

 

Good question.  I'm not sure what their agents think they are worth.  I bet they want multiple years contracts going forward.