Could John Brown be Released Next Off-Season?

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

Yeah - look at hockey's free agency and you'll see agents being like... yes - take the deal!  There's still some good free agents out there and no one is willing to pay them close to what theyre asking for (Hoffman, Duclair, Athanasiou, Granlund, and Vatanen are the big ones)

 

Yes and there are plenty of guys on the team with one year left and/or a low  % guaranteed. If we want them around, this offseason is a great opportunity to extend them at a lower cap hit to create some additional space while not losing a player.

[Buff76ers]

I would keep John Brown at all cost.  Look at the numbers when he plays vs when he doesn't.  

[DCbillsfan]

Things can change quickly but right now I think you bring Brown and Morse back.  Brown is the only speed WR they have.  Maybe add a 1yr extension to bring cap hit down.  Morse's concussion history does concern me but the Bills don't have much proven depth on OL.  Drafting a Center makes sense imo.  

[Matt_In_NH]

It could happen but a lot depends on how the nfl deals with the decreased revenue this year/salary cap.   I think he is worth that money next year.  

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, DCbillsfan said:

Things can change quickly but right now I think you bring Brown and Morse back.  Brown is the only speed WR they have.  Maybe add a 1yr extension to bring cap hit down.  Morse's concussion history does concern me but the Bills don't have much proven depth on OL.  Drafting a Center makes sense imo.  

 

I really think they like Feliciano at guard.  If Boettger continues to grow and Ford coming back....maybe Feliciano is our center next year?

 

I think Brown for sure back....Morse I'm 50/50 on.

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, Buff76ers said:

I would keep John Brown at all cost.  Look at the numbers when he plays vs when he doesn't.  

 

That was true when we were adjusting to life without him, but against a tough Niners Defense, Josh Allen and the Offense were machine-like in their execution without John Brown in the mix.   I think we're just starting to see the explosive ability of Gabriel Davis - He does it in a different way than Brown, but at UCF he was a monster deep threat, and seems to be showing that skill in the NFL already.

 

I don't doubt that we'll be even more lethal with him back, and with the way we throw it around, we need to prioritize having 4 good WR's on the roster every year, but does one of them need to be John Brown next year?... at that cap hit?... I'm not sure...

 

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by SCBills

[Dkollidas]

I tell anyone considering this... PLEASE listen to the Cover 1 podcast with Greg Tompsett from the bye week I believe, about the Bills 2021 cap situation.

 

While certain media types (WGR, Fairburn & Buscaglia on the Athletic) are bemoaning the Bills cap situation in 2021, they can do a lot, rather easily, to give themselves cap space.

With rollover from this year, we’re projected to have roughly $5M in cap space.

 

Easier cuts like Vernon Butler ($6.8M saved), Tyler Matakevich ($3.35M) and Lee Smith ($2.25M) can be made. That saves a total of $12.4M

 

John Brown, Jerry Hughes, and Micah Hyde can all be re-signed, lowering all of their 2021 cap hits, by an average of about $3M-$4M each. That saves another $10M-$12M.
Also, their 2022 years of their contracts (except maybe Hyde, would be relatively easy to get out of if Hughes/Brown regress further in 2021). 

So with those cuts and extensions, we’re at about $27M-$29M.

 

Lastly you can restructure contracts. This is usually reserved for players who you plan on keeping. You basically turn their salary for 2021 into a signing bonus which gets evenly divided throughout the length of the contract. Someone Ike Diggs is perfect for this, gives him more money up front, and gives us a year to hold off on totally redoing his contract. It also saves about $7.5M-$8M on his 2021 cap hit.

 

So right there, without anything very painful at all, I’ve built up the Bills 2021 cap space to roughly $35M-$37M. 
 

Then looking at a guy like Milano, maybe the injury allows him to take a deal that is more based on incentives, and has an overall value of maybe $11M/aav, but the cap hit for the first year is only say, $7M. Another $6M on Feliciano.

 

Our draft class should be cheaper since we pick later, maybe $3.5M, and then re-sign outstanding free agents (Dean Marlowe, Taiwan Jones etc etc) for veteran minimums of roughly $1M each (let’s say 6 guys make the roster at the end of the day, a cost of maybe $8M total).

 

We’ve filled a roster, re-signed two of our three top UFA’s, and added 6 draft picks, a complete roster, for about $25M of that $37M-$39M in cap space. 
 

That leaves us with about $12M-$14M to play with in the UFA market, or make trades, or keep in space and roll over into 2022 when Allen and Edmunds will likely be on their 5th year options and more space will be needed. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

I hope not.

 

In fact I want the Bills to go the opposite way and keeping pouring on skill players.

 

After the success of the 2013 defense, I wanted the Bills to double down and make defense an overwhelming strength my selecting Khalil Mack.

 

In this case, keep adding to this offense.

 

I think the OP is the old outdated way of Bills thinking where we look to save money, leaving us one deep at every position. 

[Adam727]

I hope not.  I would leave the offense in tact if possible.  If they need to free up cap space I'd rather see them do it by releasing someone(s) on the D-line.  I'd rather see Brown extended than cut.  

[Ramza86]

they might.

 

But having a deep team matters because of injuries

 

[Mat68]

There are alot of factors involved.  Cap shrinking? That would put Brown in the cross hairs.  Who is available in Fa or the draft.  He is now in his 30's, and is a small wr with with a lower leg issue that costed him the season. Lastly, how does Davis play down the stretch.  All in all I wouldnt like Buffalo cutting him for simply cap reasons.  

Edited December 10, 2020 by Mat68

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I hope not.

 

In fact I want the Bills to go the opposite way and keeping pouring on skill players.

 

After the success of the 2013 defense, I wanted the Bills to double down and make defense an overwhelming strength my selecting Khalil Mack.

 

In this case, keep adding to this offense.

 

I think the OP is the old outdated way of Bills thinking where we look to save money, leaving us one deep at every position. 

 

Does it need to be John Brown next year, or would you be ok rolling into next year with Diggs-Davis-Beasley and then drafting another WR in the Top 100?

 

I'm ok either way, but I don't think many people here want to cut Brown and then not replace him.  

[RyanC883]

Not a bad question.  It depends.  If releasing him frees up the money needed for a CB 2 or an elite pass rusher, then yes.  Otherwise, I can't see it.  Having him, Davis, Diggs, and Beasley is ideal.  It also provides depth in case of injury.  

5 minutes ago, Adam727 said:

I hope not.  I would leave the offense in tact if possible.  If they need to free up cap space I'd rather see them do it by releasing someone(s) on the D-line.  I'd rather see Brown extended than cut.  

 

I'm thinking murphy is gone.  

[klos63]

The cap isn't settled on for next year. Things could change for the better.

 

'Per a league source, the possibility that stadiums will be full for the 2021 season could prompt the league to not tie the hands of teams by dropping the salary cap by more than $23 million per team, from $198.2 million. Although the 2020 season will indeed result in lower revenue than usual, the potential of a return to something normal or close to it plus the coming TV deals may result in the league keeping the cap in the range of $195 million.'

[ALLEN1QB]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I've thought about it but I think they want to keep the continuity.  I  can honestly see Morse being released....does he have a big dead cap hit?

No way I would cut Morse line would definitely take a hit his contribution is underestimated IMO.

[SCBills]

One thing that I don't understand about the cap situation is how we, the Buffalo Bills, have all this gnashing of teeth over who we can keep/not keep.   I understand we have some big contracts on the horizon in Allen, Diggs re-up and Edmunds, but we are in very good cap shape compared to many in the NFL. 

 

Who's going to sign all these players this offseason?  The Jets?... They just not going to sign anywhere?  Many teams are in far worse shape with a lower/stagnant cap than we are... they just going to be releasing players who will get signed to market/above market contracts where?.....

[Victory Formation]

I think Brown will be back.. I think there’s an outside chance we draft a WR high, albeit a small chance I assume.. If anybody is replaced, I’d reckon that it’d be Andre Roberts.. We’ll probably go EDGE RD1.. After that I think we could take a speed WR/return man in RDs 2-4.. Don’t believe that you should outright release John Brown.. Think you should bring someone along behind him.. Andre Roberts is 33 and would logically be the next WR we should replace.. If you could replace Andre Roberts with a WR who could also push John Brown, it’d be a great situation for us..

[Virgil]

If Brown is healthy in the off-season, his contract is a bargain.  I don't see why he would re-structure for less. 

 

Whether we keep him depends on the cap.  If it goes down, we have tough decisions to make.  I don't think Brown is at the top of the cut list though.  That list starts with Star and Murphy

[GunnerBill]

Yes. He could. Will he be? Unlikely.

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

No way I would cut Morse line would definitely take a hit his contribution is underestimated IMO.

 

He's already been benched this year and I think they like what Feliciano brings to the center position.  With Boettger growing and Ford coming back next year...it is a possibility Morse is gone.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Very respectfully, ladies and gentlemen, we are trying to win a Super Bowl here.  Maybe even a second one would be nice next year.

 

I say all good hands on deck.  Sometimes special talent costs money.  I just don't want to pay for unspecial talent (Murphy...MURPHY, come on buddy, don't be that way.  Don't get up and leave.  It's just that you know I am right.)

 

Hell, I would possibly even give my left nut if there was a way we could get Star back for this team in the playoffs to be just a little more stout in the middle.  

Edited December 10, 2020 by dollars 2 donuts

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

 

Gabriel Davis is coming along but he is not a replacement for Smoke. We need speed at the posiiton, which Brown brings and the O is better with him on the field.

Having said that, his availability is of concern and I would trust the Bills docs to determine if his issues are temporary or not. If he is let go, we absolutely need to replace his speed and reliable hands.

 

At a minimum, a restructure is in order.  

[InEnemyTerritory]

32 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I really think they like Feliciano at guard.  If Boettger continues to grow and Ford coming back....maybe Feliciano is our center next year?

 

I think Brown for sure back....Morse I'm 50/50 on.

I would be A-OK with getting rid of Morse if it weren't for the problem that Ford currently sucks

[NoHuddleKelly12]

3 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Very respectfully, ladies and gentlemen, we are trying to win a Super Bowl here.  Maybe even a second one would be nice next year.

 

I say all good hands on deck.  Sometimes special talent costs money.  I just don't want to pay for unspecial talent (Murphy...MURPHY, come on buddy, don't be that way.  Don't get up and leave.  It's just that you know I am right.)

 

Hell, I would possibly even give my left nut if there was a way we could get Star back for this team in the playoffs to be just a little more stout in the middle.  

Back up the Brinks Truck to OBD!!!

[nucci]

1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

he could 

[billsfan89]

Given how much more dynamic this offense usually is when Brown is out there and the fact that he only has one more year left I think they hold onto Brown. Maybe they restructure his deal to give the team a slight cap cut of 1.5 million in exchange for fully gauranteing the money?

 

But even with health concerns it would be foolish to cut Brown with one year left on his deal. I like Davis but why not give him and the other players you could develop one more year with a good vet in front of him?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Does it need to be John Brown next year, or would you be ok rolling into next year with Diggs-Davis-Beasley and then drafting another WR in the Top 100?

 

I'm ok either way, but I don't think many people here want to cut Brown and then not replace him.  

I’d be open to a first round WR or TE next year  if the talent meets the correct draft slot.

 

I also agree with others that state another swing at RB could improve this offense further. Moss hasn’t done anything to make me want to stop looking for RBs.

 

I wouldn’t hand Brown’s spot to Davis as of right now. 
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

 

Gabriel Davis is NOT a replacement for John Brown - that impeccable route runner that can shed coverage AND that can take the top off a defense and make them fear him.  Don't get me wrong, I have high hopes that Gabriel Davis will grow into a sturdy and reliable piece of the offense, but he won't be a John Brown guy. 

 

They adapted the offense to work around his loss, but he allows them to add a whole limb of elements.  I've been impressed by Isaiah McKensie coming on, but I don't think at this point they can count on him growing into that role.

[billsfan89]

7 minutes ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

I would be A-OK with getting rid of Morse if it weren't for the problem that Ford currently sucks

 

Why do people seem to hate Morse? He is a very very good center. I think he is an elite pass protector, a solid run blocker and is a great leader and communicator at a position where that is critical. I get that he might be a tad bit overpaid but they could easily just restructure his deal like they did with Star.

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, Hebert19 said:

Restructure is my guess. 

 

He's 30 years old and a known entity around the league.  Golden Tate, Randall Cobb and Adam Humphries all make about the same. 

 

Why would he restructure?

[SCBills]

Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I’d be open to a first round WR or TE next year  if the talent meets the correct draft slot.

 

I also agree with others that state another swing at RB could improve this offense further. Moss hasn’t done anything to make me want to stop looking for RBs.

 

I wouldn’t hand Brown’s spot to Davis as of right now. 
 

 

 

Agreed. 

 

I don't think it's even McDermott's style to hand over a position to a second year player like that.  Davis shows a ton of potential, but they are going to make him earn it - Either with Brown in the mix or against another high draft pick (IMO).

 

As for RB... I always swore I'd lose my mind if we drafted a RB in the first round again, but that was also when we were drafting in/around the Top 10...  If an Etienne or Najee Harris is there where we draft, I'd be intrigued to lock down the RB position here for the next 4 years with a potentially elite talent.  

 

 

[InEnemyTerritory]

Just now, billsfan89 said:

 

Why do people seem to hate Morse? He is a very very good center. I think he is an elite pass protector, a solid run blocker and is a great leader and communicator at a position where that is critical. I get that he might be a tad bit overpaid but they could easily just restructure his deal like they did with Star.

Personally I'm worried he will get another concussion and 1. he will suffer long term effects and 2. the OL will be caught off guard and won't be able to gel.  I love Morse don't get me wrong but it's a massive risk

[MJS]

No. It's pretty obvious that the offense is at its best when Brown is on the field.

[dollars 2 donuts]

10 minutes ago, nucci said:

he could 

 

 

I don't want him gone, but the thumbs up I gave was for the always appreciated Nuch gift of brevity!

[BillsFan2313]

Why do people want to release good players all the time? Stop worrying about the cap. 

[Charles Romes]

He needs to be replaced with another 1A type burner receiver who is not a health risk. Brandin Cooks seems to be available every year. 

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

Personally I'm worried he will get another concussion and 1. he will suffer long term effects and 2. the OL will be caught off guard and won't be able to gel.  I love Morse don't get me wrong but it's a massive risk

 

The injury concern is real but I also think that this team has two decent options behind him in moving Bates and Mongo in there. I think this team has a larger risk of missing his absence by cutting him than they do by him missing games due to injury. I think they easily rework his deal for a bit of cap relief and keep him in the fold. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, dorquemada said:

The O is better with Smoke on the field.  Let's stop acting like we have to save money at every turn, and Trust in Beane

This is so true. We can restructure him and still get all the skill sets John brings.

[NewEra]

I could see it, but a restructure is more likely imo.  9 mill is a lot for him next season.  I think McB, Josh, Diggs and Beasley want smoke around..... I just don’t know if he’s worth 9 mill on this team

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

53 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I tell anyone considering this... PLEASE listen to the Cover 1 podcast with Greg Tompsett from the bye week I believe, about the Bills 2021 cap situation.

 

While certain media types (WGR, Fairburn & Buscaglia on the Athletic) are bemoaning the Bills cap situation in 2021, they can do a lot, rather easily, to give themselves cap space.

With rollover from this year, we’re projected to have roughly $5M in cap space.

 

Easier cuts like Vernon Butler ($6.8M saved), Tyler Matakevich ($3.35M) and Lee Smith ($2.25M) can be made. That saves a total of $12.4M

 

John Brown, Jerry Hughes, and Micah Hyde can all be re-signed, lowering all of their 2021 cap hits, by an average of about $3M-$4M each. That saves another $10M-$12M.
Also, their 2022 years of their contracts (except maybe Hyde, would be relatively easy to get out of if Hughes/Brown regress further in 2021). 

So with those cuts and extensions, we’re at about $27M-$29M.

 

Lastly you can restructure contracts. This is usually reserved for players who you plan on keeping. You basically turn their salary for 2021 into a signing bonus which gets evenly divided throughout the length of the contract. Someone Ike Diggs is perfect for this, gives him more money up front, and gives us a year to hold off on totally redoing his contract. It also saves about $7.5M-$8M on his 2021 cap hit.

 

So right there, without anything very painful at all, I’ve built up the Bills 2021 cap space to roughly $35M-$37M. 
 

Then looking at a guy like Milano, maybe the injury allows him to take a deal that is more based on incentives, and has an overall value of maybe $11M/aav, but the cap hit for the first year is only say, $7M. Another $6M on Feliciano.

 

Our draft class should be cheaper since we pick later, maybe $3.5M, and then re-sign outstanding free agents (Dean Marlowe, Taiwan Jones etc etc) for veteran minimums of roughly $1M each (let’s say 6 guys make the roster at the end of the day, a cost of maybe $8M total).

 

We’ve filled a roster, re-signed two of our three top UFA’s, and added 6 draft picks, a complete roster, for about $25M of that $37M-$39M in cap space. 
 

That leaves us with about $12M-$14M to play with in the UFA market, or make trades, or keep in space and roll over into 2022 when Allen and Edmunds will likely be on their 5th year options and more space will be needed. 

This is the podcast I was referencing in my post. Couldn't find it, thanks. 

 

If something like what you described happens, I would hope they extend Allen and use the 12-14Mil to increase his 2021 cap hit and lower his cap numbers for the rest of his contract like they did with Poyer/Dawkins/White.