The Bills Aren't a Top-Tier Team Yet

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I thought people would react to the Josh Allen comment.

 

First, my post was from the point of view of the stats.  That's what I said at the outset.   Look at the stats.  Yards, 6th.  Yards per attempt, 8th.  TDs 8th.  INTs, about 10th.  Rating, 9th.   That's why I said barely top 10.  

 

If you're talking about the future, about the QB I want to have for the next ten years, Allen's in my top 5, maybe actually in my top two, with Mahomes.  Allen is going to be phenomenal.  But if you're talking about the present, he isn't quite there yet.  Rivers, for example, showed again yesterday how good the really good field generals can be, and even though Rivers can't hold a candle to Allen in terms of physical talent, running the team is what sets apart the great from the good QBs.   Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Mahomes all have that. 

 

Josh has made great strides in three years, and as I've always said, he needs another year or two.  When he's a great a field general, the only guys who will be able to play with him will be the guys with great arms.   That's Mahomes and maybe Watson.   

 

And that is solely on coaching.  18 pass attempts vs. NE, scared to attack vs. KC & Tenn.......  Some can be blamed on weather, other on coaching/playcalling.

 

Here's the stats.....

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/passingYards/dir/desc

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey, I also like these arguments.  Herbert's not on my list because it's too early, but I agree he has the potential.  

 

And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five.   I thought about that.  But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him.   I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season.  

Carr was extraordinary last night.   Just great.   Raiders win if his receivers weren't allergic to footballs. 

You need to remember that Allen is putting up top10 numbers across the board throwing only to wideouts. He has literally no running game or TE threat. The offense and by extension the entire Buffalo Bills franchise rests entirely on Allen to Diggs, Allen to Brown, and Allen to Beasley. What he's doing this season is nothing short of extraordinary.

[Big Turk]

They also have played the most teams with winning records in the NFL and are 4-3 against these teams.  Points For/Points Against are skewed heavily by the 1 loss to the Titans.  Additionally the Bills have allowed several garbage time TDs that have lowered that margin without changing the outcome of the game in their wins.

 

I don't think they are the elite of the NFL but I certainly think they can compete with and beat any of those teams if they are on their game.  I really would have liked to see what they did against KC if they attacked like they did in the other games instead of sitting back and being passive.

[GETTOTHE50]

Allen has the will power that is only second to Mahomes in the league. Top ten QB is a given. 

[Mat68]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

These are great arguments.   Thanks.  You may be right about this.   

 

I just took a look at Football Outsiders.  This is the time of year when their analysis starts to make sense, in my mind.  They have the Bills at middle of the road, including strength of schedule, so they would argue with you.   But they aren't infallible.  

The strength of schedule is tough imo.  Its not comparing LSU and AL vs Mich and OSU.  I would put a game or so difference as variance but not much.  Majority of the league leaders have played 3-4 teams with winning records and won 1 to 2 of those games.  Playing 7 winning 4 pretty much laps the feild.  By seasons end it will be 8 to 9 games.  That resume goes up against any team not in Missouri.  Allen and an attacking defense will be a problem for any team in January.

[Punching Bag]

57 minutes ago, McGahee said:

Luckily our division is putrid

 

You make it sound there is spoiled fish in it. 

We know something rotten to its core is in it and one led by a blind man.

[Wayne Cubed]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey, I also like these arguments.  Herbert's not on my list because it's too early, but I agree he has the potential.  

 

And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five.   I thought about that.  But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him.   I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season.  

Carr was extraordinary last night.   Just great.   Raiders win if his receivers weren't allergic to footballs. 

 

So let me get this straight you believe Carr, Tannehill and Herbert, all who have a higher QB rating, are playing better football than Allen. Even though every other measurable Allen is outperforming them, except he has more INTs. I'm not sure I can get there and it's not about getting it down to one statistic. It's taking a collective look. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

JK started for the bills in 1986. in his 3rd season he and the bills finished 12-4, won the divisional round and lost to the bengals in the conference championship. the following season, his 4th, they finished 9-7 and lost the divisional round to the browns. in his 5th season he and the team won the divisional, won the conference championship and lost his first superbowl appearance.

 

not really comparing JA to JK but he and the bills could have similar success (or failure however you look at the 4 straight sb losses) with this being his 3rd season and on pace to possibly finish with 12 wins and an opportunity to go to the postseason.

 

it had taken JK and the bills 5 seasons to make the dance. JA and this bills team could take 5 seasons to get to the dance? or maybe they never make the dance?

 

I agree with the OP, they are not quite there yet, but darn close and I'm hanging on for the ride.

Edited November 23, 2020 by A Firm Tree Does Not Fear

[Real McClappy]

It all depends on what Bills team shows up here out. It's very possible they catch straight fire going into the playoffs. 

 

I still like our chances. 

[PrimeTime101]

Many teams that win or get into the Conference games are teams that got hot towards the end of the year. Case in point last years Tennessee. Lets see if we evolve to that point or if it takes another year of draft and FA to get there. The Seahawks game told us a lot,, The Pitz game will tell us more

[Real McClappy]

55 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

8 teams is too many for an "elite" category. That's 1/4 of the league.

 

Take the top 2-3 from that group. Those are the elite teams.

 

JMO

If the Bills were 8-2 like they should be though right now would they be considered elite?

 

[InEnemyTerritory]

1 hour ago, pigpen65 said:

The Bills coaching staff is very good when they are behind at halftime. They identify and make the adjustments to counteract the opponent's game plan. On the other side, the Bills coaching staff sucks when they are ahead at halftime.

Then why is their record horrible when they're behind at halftime, whereas when they're leading at halftime they have yet to lose a regular season game?

[dma0034]

The Bills may not be elite but I think they pose a big threat to the Chiefs and Steelers in making it to the Superbowl. Bills could beat them. I'd pick the Chiefs over the Bills but if Josh Allen is hot then the Bills can beat anyone

[corta765]

24 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Allen has the will power that is only second to Mahomes in the league. Top ten QB is a given. 

 

Allen is to the point when I think of QBs I expect to tie/win a game with a final drive he is included now with Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Big Ben. That is about the biggest compliment you can give a QB and I would not have said that going into this year. He is legit now.

[DrDawkinstein]

40 minutes ago, Real McNasty said:

If the Bills were 8-2 like they should be though right now would they be considered elite?

 

 

Again, JMO...

 

I dont think so, even if we were 8-2. Really only because they are still too unproven, and have too many holes in the roster. For me it goes beyond record. Of course, you have to have a top record, but that is just the beginning.

 

IMO, the only elite/top-tier teams right now are KC and Pitt.

 

KC because they have the QB, the coach, the weapons, enough talent on D to get by, and a recent Super Bowl victory. I dont think there is much argument on KC.

Pitt because they have the experienced QB and coach, have enough weapons, a top D, and are always a winning franchise. I dont care that their schedule has been easy, they're still a great team all around.

 

I guess cases could be made to add Green Bay and/or the Saints, but the NFC looks weaker in general this year.

 

I'd definitely put the Bills in that category with the Packers, Saints, and Titans as "knocking on the ceiling".

 

The good news is, we still have to play the games. Which means any team could knock off any other team. We played KC well (and I think could take them in a rematch), I feel good going into the Pittsburgh game. So I like our chances in the playoffs against anyone.

 

edit: I just looked a little deeper at the Saints Defensive performance this season. If/when Brees is healthy, they are an elite team. I'll give it to them.

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Big Turk]

22 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

So let me get this straight you believe Carr, Tannehill and Herbert, all who have a higher QB rating, are playing better football than Allen. Even though every other measurable Allen is outperforming them, except he has more INTs. I'm not sure I can get there and it's not about getting it down to one statistic. It's taking a collective look. 

 

There is absolutely NO WAY Tannehill could do what Allen is doing.  Without a viable run game Tannehill is ineffective.  Tannehill cannot drop back 30 times in a half with 3 runs and do what Allen did to Seattle. Not happening.

[Figster]

Myself personally OP,

 

I believe the last 3 games shows the direction Buffalo is going in IMO. We should have won all 3 and the loss to Arizona could have been a preview to the Superbowl IMO. If Buffalo was playing its best football I might be inclined to agree with you. We are not and still at the top of our division with basically a 2 game cushion. I expect the Buffalo Bills to continue making improvements over the next 6 games and become playoff ready with a fairly good idea of what to expect haven played the NFL's top teams through the regular season.

 

I think every team has a team or two that doesn't match up well with them. The Titans are Buffalo's bad match up. Hopefully they get knocked out.

 

On a good day Buffalo can beat anyone IMO.

[foreboding]

1 hour ago, sir andrew said:

I'm to the point where when there's less than 2:00 on the clock and they're down by a score or less, I expect Josh to take the team down the field for the winning score.  Other than Mahomes, Wilson or Rodgers, there isn't another QB that I feel that way about.  I can't believe that I just wrote that about a Buffalo Bills QB.

Me as well, his will and physical strength always give him a chance, you aren't getting a fluky arm sack on Josh Allen to end a game.

[Lv-Bills]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

If the Bills were in the AFC North and had to cross over and play the NFC East and AFC South, their numbers would be gaudy.  A ton of this is who you play and how the schedule sets up.   The Bills actually have a pretty tough schedule versus a lot of teams that have feasted on bottom feeders all year.  The Bills are as good as almost everyone in the league except the Chiefs.  Pittsburgh might have perhaps the most hollow 10-0 record of all time at this point.  Good yes.  Best in the AFC.....give me the Chiefs.  The Chiefs are still a step above everyone.  There are then like 10 teams that are all together, and are pretty damn solid.  The Bills are definitely one of the teams in the group of next ten.  This group includes the group that has teams that look like they could win the Super Bowl one week, then look like total garbage for a game or two.    Then rip off 3 wins in a row again.  

Edited November 23, 2020 by Lv-Bills

[colin]

i dig the talent part of OP's post.

 

Your dominant teams tend to have just total superstars, a few really good guys, and then Jags and perhaps the odd weakness.

 

Looking at O, we have two Super stars in allen and Digs.  we have two really good guys in Brown (when healthy) and beasley.  i think our LT is really good, and our C or RT might qualify there in a pinch.  Our interior line, particularly w the injuries, is trash, and our entire TE and RB roster is cheeks.

 

On D, White is the only one who flirts w super star status, and frankly he has simply not been there this year, although i do think he is hurt.  beyond that at CB, i think we struggle to hit JAG w the injuries.  at LB, assuming both of them can heal up and be 100%, in a long stretch, milano and edmunds might qualify as really good, but i think just good would be an improvement from where we are now.  beyond that we are below JAG at LB.

 

at DT we don't have a single 1 tech on the team, Star was like JAG+ when he was in there.  maybe oliver or houghs would qualify as really good, but i think that's a stretch.  the rest are over paid JAGS, or even below.  i suppose harrison is a 1 tech, but he mostly watches games now.

 

so, looking at this with a bit of a devil's advocate bias, i really do see how our record is better than we have played.  to me, the big difference now vs other years is with (if healthy) a few weapons at WR and a killer QB, you always have a shot in the game.  if we can elevate the play of our LBs and our DL figure something out, that could be enough for the D to get back to being decent at least, and hopefully the OL getting healthy means we have an ability to stop the interior pass rush and push some teams around in the run game.

[foreboding]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

They have great to elite:

• Coaching
• QB
• WRs
• Secondary
• LT
• K
• P
• Kick Returner

[JPP]

If we win the AFCE (likely) and are 3rd seating (likely) than yes we are a top tier team in the league with over 10 wins (likely)......Its not like we are like one of the teams in the NFCE who will have the privelage of getting a playoff spot with a losing record.....

[QLBillsFan]

Titans got to AFC championship game. We will be elite if we make such a run. Stats are a telling sign of things to come, but NFL is about match ups and game plans. We are in the conversation to be elite. Outside of KC and perhaps the Saints I’m not sure anyone in the top 10 is elite. I think JA has the capability of making a run. If D continues to improve and we get some semblance of a run game why not Bills?

[Putin]

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

Buffalo is in the elite tier I think, but the elite tier might have 5-8 teams in it this season.  

 

Pittsburgh

KC

Buffalo

Tennessee

GB

New Orleans

Seattle

Arizona

Rams?

Raiders?

 

But, but what about Miami ?

[Nelius]

I've seen this board go back and forth on the Ravens and Titans almost weekly, so who exactly is considered elite from the AFC? If it's only the Steelers and Chiefs then I can buy the argument that we're not a top-2 team yet, otherwise I disagree if we're making any other team elite besides those two.

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

I'm not sure I'd agree you're being objective with "barely" at number 9.  "Barely" objectively implies that there's a large chance of him falling out of the top 10 at any moment.  Are 10 and 11 so statistically close to him that you feel this is true?    Totally on board with everything else you said, great post.

 

It drives me crazy that our O-line can pass block pretty well but really hasn't done well run blocking.  If they can fix this out of the bye, I would feel a lot better about our playoff chances.  

Edited November 23, 2020 by GaryPinC

[NewEra]

You can win a super bowl and not be an “elite” team.

 

josh is easily a top 10 qB

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You can win a super bowl and not be an “elite” team.

 

josh is easily a top 10 qB

 

Absolutely.

 

The 2007 Giants backed into the playoffs as a Wild Card, and beat the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

[pigpen65]

1 hour ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

Then why is their record horrible when they're behind at halftime, whereas when they're leading at halftime they have yet to lose a regular season game?

 That's a different question. I was talking about their point differential, not win / loss record.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

What’s great about this team is their arc of improvement. 
 

I would put money on the Bills in re-matches with the three teams that beat them (titans, chiefs, and cards). I think the more battle-tested they are, the more difficult of an out they will be.

 

you also have to consider what a weird year it’s been. We don’t really know who is elite yet. That is due to how putrid the NFC East is and most of the AFC south. So I have no idea how you evaluate the steelers, Ravens, or Browns.  

[Big Blitz]

Power Rankings (I'll do a top 14 since thats the number of playoff teams)

 

1. Chiefs

2. Steelers

3. Saints 

4. Tampa

5. Ravens (missing those 2 on the DL is a big deal)

6. Bills 

7. Colts

8. Packers 

9. Seahawks

10. Titans

11. Rams

12. Arizona

13. Browns 

14. Vegas

 

 

All of these teams have flaws. 

 

All of them can beat any of them.  We are 3-3 against 6 of them.    

 

I'm not sure there is an "elite" team that I want no part of.  The Ravens and Steelers D.  I don't want anything to do with those defensive.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Again, JMO...

 

I dont think so, even if we were 8-2. Really only because they are still too unproven, and have too many holes in the roster. For me it goes beyond record. Of course, you have to have a top record, but that is just the beginning.

 

IMO, the only elite/top-tier teams right now are KC and Pitt.

 

KC because they have the QB, the coach, the weapons, enough talent on D to get by, and a recent Super Bowl victory. I dont think there is much argument on KC.

Pitt because they have the experienced QB and coach, have enough weapons, a top D, and are always a winning franchise. I dont care that their schedule has been easy, they're still a great team all around.

 

I guess cases could be made to add Green Bay and/or the Saints, but the NFC looks weaker in general this year.

 

I'd definitely put the Bills in that category with the Packers, Saints, and Titans as "knocking on the ceiling".

 

The good news is, we still have to play the games. Which means any team could knock off any other team. We played KC well (and I think could take them in a rematch), I feel good going into the Pittsburgh game. So I like our chances in the playoffs against anyone.

 

edit: I just looked a little deeper at the Saints Defensive performance this season. If/when Brees is healthy, they are an elite team. I'll give it to them.

 

This puts it pretty well.   Bills are good, but no one's pickin em to win the Super Bowl.  The Bills are still in "prove it" mode.  

[Don Otreply]

Let’s see, there are eight divisions in the NFL...,  so..., that would say that eight teams at any time are the leaders of the NFL..., so..., it would then say that the Buffalo Bills are in the top eight in the league..., with a QB that is said to be top five or better presently..., so..., I’m saying that Shaw66 as great a poster as he absolutely is, is not takings all available data into account in his post.  😁👍 🍺 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

 

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

He IS top 10 though.  Adding your own feelings-based modifiers is bad science.

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Nelius said:

I've seen this board go back and forth on the Ravens and Titans almost weekly, so who exactly is considered elite from the AFC? If it's only the Steelers and Chiefs then I can buy the argument that we're not a top-2 team yet, otherwise I disagree if we're making any other team elite besides those two.

 

At the moment it is KC and Pittsburgh. Ravens and Titans are pretty beat up. I still think they are in a 2nd tier with the Bills though overall. Then Vegas, Cleveland, Indy, Miami are tier 3. 

 

That is my take on the AFC

[teef]

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game

Thanks @Shaw66  I was trying to put my finger on it over the week off.   I do believe the revamped OL after the bye may help the run game and we will know by playoffs if a new RB is in order.  

 

 A big 1T /NT is in order for 2021 given Star's age and the results YTD.  I don't see Harrison Philips coming back next year.  And A LB who can play the middle may be in order if Milano moves on - I would move Edmunds to WLB then.  Would let him run and chase without an OL on him.

 

The other missing link IMHO is a down the seams TE.  Watching Andrews and Kelce yesterday made me want to ask Santa for one this year.  

Edited November 23, 2020 by freddyjj

[SF Bills Fan]

I'd say the only elite team is the Chiefs. Even those guys have won some close ones to lesser teams. Then there is a grouping of 6-7 teams, including the Bills, that are in a top tier. The thing is, it seems like anybody can beat anyone this year. I'd not be surprised to see the Super Bowl feature a matchup like Tennessee vs. Rams or Bills vs. Saints or another team that gets hot in the playoffs.  Smart money says the Chiefs will be the team to beat and I'd agree for now. In the NFC, the picture is far murkier. Not sure who will emerge there.

[Mickey]

I suppose the day is not far off when we will award the win to the team that had the best statistics rather than the team that had the most points. The correlative proportional inverse relationship between points and a team being "good" lacks the asynchronous synchronicity between the integral truthiness of obscure stats and being good-ish. End the tyranny of real life experience and welcome in the new era where all games are simulated and outcomes statistically determined.

 

Blessed be the Madden.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Mickey

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five.   I thought about that.  But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him.   I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season.  

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Carr was extraordinary last night.   Just great.   Raiders win if his receivers weren't allergic to footballs. 

 

If best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating and WRs suck won't that impact QB effectiveness?

1 minute ago, Mickey said:

Blessed be the Madden.

 

Sure some people are devil worshipers too.  Freedom of Religion and all of that.