Mahomes contract predictions

[Turk71]

The Chiefs are already tight to the cap for next year with their current commitments. They will have a hard time keeping a strong supporting cast (the rest of the team) when Mahomes' cap hit goes from 5 to 40 mil. That is a big difference.

[BigDingus]

4 hours ago, Returntoglory said:

Jesus. He could have been our QB ?

 

The problem is not just that he could've been our QB...we've passed on tons of QB's in the past that have made us look stupid.

The problem is that we sat there at that spot, took the time to evaluate it, then traded that EXACT spot to the team that then used that pick to select him...all while desperately needing a QB in the first place.

If he was taken 5 spots later, it's bad, only not quite as bad. But literally handing that spot to the team that selected him feels like we said "Nah, he's not good enough for us, but here ya go, you take the guy!" 

Then he goes on to throw for 5,000 yards, 50 TD's, become an NFL MVP, win a Super Bowl and become a Super Bowl MVP...after only 2 years as a starting QB. Ouch.

Edited February 3, 2020 by BigDingus

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

LOL.

 

Only us. The Buffalo Bills and most of the fanbase, choose to pass on, League MVP Lamar Jackson, and Superstar Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes, for crappy Josh Inaccurate Allen.

 

Doug Flutie really hated us to put the hex on our butts. Damn.

 

Dak Prescott. "Not Good." Says the guy who lives in Binghamton.

 

Technically it wasn't only the Bills that passed on 2 MVP QB's. Many teams did.

I agree with the sentiment that it was asinine, especially considering how desperate we've been for a good QB the past couple decades, but unless Doug Flutie also cursed dozens of other teams, it really has nothing to do with being cursed lol. 

But passing on QB's like Mahomes is why I still question McDermott's ability to mold Josh Allen into a solid QB (not even good or great, just consistently solid). How can I have faith he knows what makes a good QB when his ability to evaluate QB talent has been abysmal? Let's not forget 2018 when he thought we were set at the position with Nathan Peterman (who he also drafted) starting & a "project" rookie as our only 2 QB's. 

No veterans, 1.5 games of starting QB experience between them...and confident enough to trade away AJ McCarron because we definitely wouldn't have use for someone that's at least been on an NFL roster for more than a year. 

But yes, he drafted the correct QB & will mold him into someone worthy of a high 1st round pick. 

Side Note: I still love Sean McDermott otherwise. Glad he's our HC.

Edited February 3, 2020 by BigDingus

[JoPoy88]

6 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Let’s hear them. 
 

done this year or next?
 

over/under:

 

39.5m per year 

5.5 years 

59% guaranteed

 

he’s going to be a wealthy young man.

44 per year for 5 years all guaranteed 

[njbuff]

6 hours ago, Returntoglory said:

Jesus. He could have been our QB ?

 

Were you saying that on draft day in 2017 when the Bills were about to make their pick or are you the millions of Monday Morning QB's who couldn't stand him at the time and wasn't even close to being worth the 10th overall pick?

 

Funny how people forget that Andy Reid took a MAJOR chance at the time to make the trade up for him. And if Andy Reid didn't make that trade, a lot of people in NFL circles didn't even like Mahomes as a first rounder.

 

So, enough already with this crap that the Bills should have taken him. They were NEVER taking Mahomes at 10 and many other NFL teams didn't like him at all. Case closed.

 

My feelings on draft day that I liked Mahomes a lot (many on BBMB didn't like him) and I argued with a guy like jrober till the cows came home about how good I thought Mahomes was and he told me Air Raid QB's sucked. Point is, I loved Mahomes, but I fully understood why the Bills didn't take him as the Bills had to rebuild the ENTIRE offense. You might not like that reason, but that was the fact of the matter in 2017. While Reid gambled and won as he was able to sit Mahomes for a year and get him groomed for a ready-made offense.

 

The hindsight is 20/20 crowd is getting sickening.

Edited February 3, 2020 by njbuff

[Returntoglory]

21 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

Were you saying that on draft day in 2017 when the Bills were about to make their pick or are you the millions of Monday Morning QB's who couldn't stand him at the time and wasn't even close to being worth the 10th overall pick?

 

Funny how people forget that Andy Reid took a MAJOR chance at the time to make the trade up for him. And if Andy Reid didn't make that trade, a lot of people in NFL circles didn't even like Mahomes as a first rounder.

 

So, enough already with this crap that the Bills should have taken him. They were NEVER taking Mahomes at 10 and many other NFL teams didn't like him at all. Case closed.

 

My feelings on draft day that I liked Mahomes a lot (many on BBMB didn't like him) and I argued with a guy like jrober till the cows came home about how good I thought Mahomes was and he told me Air Raid QB's sucked. Point is, I loved Mahomes, but I fully understood why the Bills didn't take him as the Bills had to rebuild the ENTIRE offense. You might not like that reason, but that was the fact of the matter in 2017. While Reid gambled and won as he was able to sit Mahomes for a year and get him groomed for a ready-made offense.

 

The hindsight is 20/20 crowd is getting sickening.

Haha. I said " Could have been Einstein" . I didn't say should have been. 

 

Every QB pick is a gamble. 

[njbuff]

2 minutes ago, Returntoglory said:

Haha. I said " Could have been Einstein" . I didn't say should have been. 

 

Every QB pick is a gamble. 

 

The Bills could have had Tom Brady and Joe Montana too, for example.

 

 Just saying.

[Putin]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When were Sammy, Woods, Brown, and Beasley on the Bills team

Don’t forget Eric Moulds and Andre Reed 

[Doc Brown]

If the Chiefs were so sure he'd be the next Aaron Rodgers 2.0 .....why did they wait until #10 to trade up?  Reid was smart enough to know Alex Smith would never get him over the top and he needed a strong arm QB with loads of potential to groom.  They rolled the dice with Mahomes the same way we did with Allen.  Let's just wait and see what Allen can accomplish before having a collective pity party.  

[BringBackOrton]

42 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

Were you saying that on draft day in 2017 when the Bills were about to make their pick or are you the millions of Monday Morning QB's who couldn't stand him at the time and wasn't even close to being worth the 10th overall pick?

 

Funny how people forget that Andy Reid took a MAJOR chance at the time to make the trade up for him. And if Andy Reid didn't make that trade, a lot of people in NFL circles didn't even like Mahomes as a first rounder.

 

So, enough already with this crap that the Bills should have taken him. They were NEVER taking Mahomes at 10 and many other NFL teams didn't like him at all. Case closed.

 

My feelings on draft day that I liked Mahomes a lot (many on BBMB didn't like him) and I argued with a guy like jrober till the cows came home about how good I thought Mahomes was and he told me Air Raid QB's sucked. Point is, I loved Mahomes, but I fully understood why the Bills didn't take him as the Bills had to rebuild the ENTIRE offense. You might not like that reason, but that was the fact of the matter in 2017. While Reid gambled and won as he was able to sit Mahomes for a year and get him groomed for a ready-made offense.

 

The hindsight is 20/20 crowd is getting sickening.

Man, imagine if we passed on Mahomes because he was a risky pick, multiple teams didn’t have him that high on their board etc etc and then the VERY NEXT YEAR we took an extremely risky, all the physical tools, QB prospect who many teams thought had a high bust potential and some didn’t have first round grades on him. That would be so wild.

 

To your other “point,” the idea the Bills were NEVER taking a QB in 2017 is an indictment on them more than anything else. QB is #1 team building priority, not defensive backs. A really great QB makes all the difference. 

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

If the Chiefs were so sure he'd be the next Aaron Rodgers 2.0 .....why did they wait until #10 to trade up?  Reid was smart enough to know Alex Smith would never get him over the top and he needed a strong arm QB with loads of potential to groom.  They rolled the dice with Mahomes the same way we did with Allen.  Let's just wait and see what Allen can accomplish before having a collective pity party.  

I’m not a fortune teller, but I feel pretty confident in my prediction that Allen won’t be an MVP or Super Bow MVP before 25. Not because I think he sucks, but because those are insane accomplishments to reach that young.

 

If Allen wins a Bills Super Bowl, it’ll all

be fine. But if he doesn’t, the next 15 years will be all Mahomes all the time. And justifiably so.

[BigBillsFan]

Here's the truth about Mahomes... his scheme makes up for his deficiencies. Reid built that team around athleticism first and playmakers, not precise route-running. Mahomes is not and will never be Brees.

 

It works because the coach made it work. He saw in Mahomes what he could do and knew that was his guy.

 

Mahomes on the Bengals would suck, a "bust" if you will.

 

That's why drafts aren't as important as GMs and coaches with a vision. You can take a 6th round QB and figure him out in NE, or Big Ben and let him ride along a running attack. Montana under Reeves wouldn't have been Montana, etc..

 

GMs and coaches that have a vision are the real keys for success.

[auburnbillsbacker]

If I was Mahomes I wouldn't accept any contract that wasnt fully guaranteed.

[HOUSE]

I see Cap problems which will be fun to watch.....lol

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

‘A rising tide lifts all boats’.  Mahomes success will allow NPeterman to get the contract opportunities he richly deserves.  ?

[BigBillsFan]

48 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

This is a really good take.

 

Too bad you're only one person. Could use about a million more of you.

 

 

Nah if we all agreed the board would be boring. Having men argue about things outside of their control is enjoyment that goes back for thousands of years. Politics is the ultimate example.

 

To quote the guy from Godzilla "Let them fight"

[Matt_In_NH]

If he pushes the limits.....40mil per, mostly guaranteed.   But that will hurt their ability to have a guy like Watkins as the 4th option.

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

Here's the truth about Mahomes... his scheme makes up for his deficiencies. Reid built that team around athleticism first and playmakers, not precise route-running. Mahomes is not and will never be Brees.

 

It works because the coach made it work. He saw in Mahomes what he could do and knew that was his guy.

 

Mahomes on the Bengals would suck, a "bust" if you will.

 

That's why drafts aren't as important as GMs and coaches with a vision. You can take a 6th round QB and figure him out in NE, or Big Ben and let him ride along a running attack. Montana under Reeves wouldn't have been Montana, etc..

 

GMs and coaches that have a vision are the real keys for success.

 

Similarly Brees will never be Mahomes.  Which one will have more success in the big picture at the end of their careers?

[BigBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, mattynh said:

Similarly Brees will never be Mahomes.  Which one will have more success in the big picture at the end of their careers?

 

Agreed, but Brees came from different rules. You'll notice the top guys from 20 years ago became efficient with time out of their hand as a big component to their success.

 

Now with the WR rules it benefits a Mahomes more. Get a little time and throw the ball. It could benefit Allen too.

 

Mahomes with a Reid/Pederson type coach will have more success than Brees. Brees has to throw 25-30 completions to have a great game, Mahomes only needs 6-8. Its like what Deontay Wilder said when he said his opponents have to be right 100% of the time to beat him and all he needs is 1 second. It's a different game/mindset.

 

It's why defensive teams will struggle to win the big one. They can, but it will be hard. They have to be right all the time, the big play offense only has to be right a few times.

[BigBuff423]

8 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Too much.  QB contracts are becoming a big bubble that will burst.  It will be too difficult to afford anyone else; you'll have a great QB and nothing else so you'll end up sucking or being mediocre, at best.

 

I used to feel this way as well, but with the constantly changing Cap number and it's always going up, new CBA coming, and the fact that every year in this NFL era - it's been shown that if you have a truly great QB, and the GM can Draft well enough and use FA appropriately, there are always ways to get replacement level value players at every position and the team can win. Now, building a core and keeping them together is a different animal and one that hails the feelings of nostalgia, but in the contemporary NFL, it just isn't done much. 

 

 

[Returntoglory]

2 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

The Bills could have had Tom Brady and Joe Montana too, for example.

 

 Just saying.

Brilliant!

[Chaos]

Its is not clear to me how dependent the Mahomes brand is on winning.   If he is able to make more money on endorsements than on football,. like a Tiger Woods type player, his contract might very well be less than people think, in order to make sure the talent surrounding him remains good enough to win. Brady's willingness to play for less has been a distinct patriots advantage (I am aware Brady has a uniquely high earning wife among NFL QBs).    Would Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees have four or five Rings, if they had played for Brady's money. 

 

Mahomes' amazing national popularity and high level of charisma makes him in a different position to earn money away from his direct QB compensation than most. 

[nucci]

9 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

I laugh at the numbers being thrown out there when Prescott is mentioned.

 

The guy is not good. 
 

Agreed, Mahomes should make way more than Prescott.

it's all about timing...well, not all but mostly

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Let’s hear them. 
 

done this year or next?
 

over/under:

 

39.5m per year 

5.5 years 

59% guaranteed

 

he’s going to be a wealthy young man.

He already is a wealthy young man, now it falls into the absurd, it’s going to go straight to plaid...

[Epstein's Mother]

What's he gonna get?  All of it.  Just all of it.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, philholbroo said:

he's gonna start the 100% guarantee market.

 

Kirk Cousins already started it. 

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

Were you saying that on draft day in 2017 when the Bills were about to make their pick or are you the millions of Monday Morning QB's who couldn't stand him at the time and wasn't even close to being worth the 10th overall pick?

 

Funny how people forget that Andy Reid took a MAJOR chance at the time to make the trade up for him. And if Andy Reid didn't make that trade, a lot of people in NFL circles didn't even like Mahomes as a first rounder.

 

So, enough already with this crap that the Bills should have taken him. They were NEVER taking Mahomes at 10 and many other NFL teams didn't like him at all. Case closed.

 

My feelings on draft day that I liked Mahomes a lot (many on BBMB didn't like him) and I argued with a guy like jrober till the cows came home about how good I thought Mahomes was and he told me Air Raid QB's sucked. Point is, I loved Mahomes, but I fully understood why the Bills didn't take him as the Bills had to rebuild the ENTIRE offense. You might not like that reason, but that was the fact of the matter in 2017. While Reid gambled and won as he was able to sit Mahomes for a year and get him groomed for a ready-made offense.

 

The hindsight is 20/20 crowd is getting sickening.

I don’t see the point in rehashing passing on Mahomes at this point.  It’s been done to death.  We should have drafted him.  We didn’t.  Arguing otherwise is ridiculous, but now everyone needs to move on.

 

For the record some of us were calling for the Bills to draft Mahomes.  I sure was and I was pissed off when they traded out and let the Chiefs have him.  I wanted the Bills to take him - or failing that, the Browns (who I also root for) to trade up for him.  Watching neither get him was a bad as watching the Browns trade out with the Bills for Sammy Watkins and both passing on Khalil Mack. 

[Big Turk]

11 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

4 yr $205 mil and $150 mil guaranteed.

 

I don't think his agent will want him in a longer contract as contracts will continue to rise.

 

If Goff got 82% of his deal guaranteed, Mahomes is going to get a whole lot more than that.

[badassgixxer05]

He will get a ton. The rest of the team will get gutted because of it though. Salary caps and *****...

[BillsfanAZ]

Tannehill, Mariota, Bridgewater, and Winston are hoping Mahomes gets an extension this offseason to reset the QB price tags

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

11 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

5 yr $165M, $105M guaranteed. 

If he does get a contract like this it will handicap the team cap wise and put all the pressure on Mahomes and the GM. 
 

KC will probably have to build a team like the Colts when Peyton Manning was there. A cover 2 defense with the bulk of the money going to signing two pass rushers with solid safeties and CB’s that bend but don’t break. 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

Here's the truth about Mahomes... his scheme makes up for his deficiencies. Reid built that team around athleticism first and playmakers, not precise route-running. Mahomes is not and will never be Brees.

 

It works because the coach made it work. He saw in Mahomes what he could do and knew that was his guy.

 

Mahomes on the Bengals would suck, a "bust" if you will.

 

That's why drafts aren't as important as GMs and coaches with a vision. You can take a 6th round QB and figure him out in NE, or Big Ben and let him ride along a running attack. Montana under Reeves wouldn't have been Montana, etc..

 

GMs and coaches that have a vision are the real keys for success.

 

His deficiencies, eh? 

 

Anyway,  Tyreek Hill and Kelce are pretty good "route runners". 

 

Anyway, Andy Reid has had his "vision" for 21 years and over 200 wins but he could only "make it work" with Mahomes.  Couldn't do it with McNabb or Vick--both pretty good athletes.  Reid with Alex Smith wasn't going to win any SB even with all the current playmakers on that team.

 

Watching Mahomes play the past 2 years and concluding that Reid has made up for Mahomes's "deficiencies"?  You have i backwards, I think.

[noacls]

A Cousins type contract. 4 x 40 100% guaranteed 

[billsfan89]

6 years 200 million with 135 guaranteed. Mahomes sets the market at 40 million which is 5 million more than the 35 million the next highest QB makes (Russell Wilson.) Mahomes has to not only top the market but top it considerably. I also think that while Mahomes could command a little more than 40 if he really wanted to apply the pressure he could get more but I think he doesn't want to over leverage his cap situation and make the team around him worse. 

5 hours ago, HOUSE said:

I see Cap problems which will be fun to watch.....lol

 

Assuming they pay him 40 million plus there will be cap issues for sure. But if you have the best QB in the game that is such an advantage over other teams that it is worth taking on those cap issues and figuring the rest out. 

[Cripple Creek]

13 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Let’s hear them. 
 

done this year or next?
 

over/under:

 

39.5m per year 

5.5 years 

59% guaranteed

 

he’s going to be a wealthy young man.

over

over

over

[BigBillsFan]

37 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

His deficiencies, eh? 

 

Anyway,  Tyreek Hill and Kelce are pretty good "route runners". 

 

Anyway, Andy Reid has had his "vision" for 21 years and over 200 wins but he could only "make it work" with Mahomes.  Couldn't do it with McNabb or Vick--both pretty good athletes.  Reid with Alex Smith wasn't going to win any SB even with all the current playmakers on that team.

 

Watching Mahomes play the past 2 years and concluding that Reid has made up for Mahomes's "deficiencies"?  You have i backwards, I think.

 

Ok let's flip the script. He's on our team with Rick Dennison in 2017 or Daboll in 2018. How do you think that would turn out?

 

Now let's take Vick, your example, and he goes from 160 yards a game with the Falcons to 250 yards per game with Reid.

 

He took McNabb to the NFC championship for 3 years in a row. In other words Reid knew how to mold those players to what he wanted with his scheme.

 

My point somehow was lost in your post. I'm not saying Mahomes would be a scrub on the Rams under McVay, but he would be under Dennison/Daboll (Bills), or the Bengals. There is a bit of luck they can mentally adapt to the NFL but the GMs, schemes, and HC make the player more than the player himself when it comes to QBs.

 

The coach and the GM have to have a vision for the QB with players and scheme.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

He's getting $200 million.

 

My guess is 5 years $200 million with $100 million guaranteed.

[Just Joshin']

The year 5 option replaced with 6 year, $42 million average.  It will be 100% guaranteed.

[NewEra]

5 years 200 mill 175 gtd

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Ok let's flip the script. He's on our team with Rick Dennison in 2017 or Daboll in 2018. How do you think that would turn out?

 

Now let's take Vick, your example, and he goes from 160 yards a game with the Falcons to 250 yards per game with Reid.

 

He took McNabb to the NFC championship for 3 years in a row. In other words Reid knew how to mold those players to what he wanted with his scheme.

 

My point somehow was lost in your post. I'm not saying Mahomes would be a scrub on the Rams under McVay, but he would be under Dennison/Daboll (Bills), or the Bengals. There is a bit of luck they can mentally adapt to the NFL but the GMs, schemes, and HC make the player more than the player himself when it comes to QBs.

 

The coach and the GM have to have a vision for the QB with players and scheme.

 

Mahomes is a stud.  Athletic and highly intelligent. He was a stud in college, where he played just like he does now---you know, before he met Andy Reid.

 

He would have been a stud on the Bills team this year.  If your point was to say he would have been a "scrub" with the Bills, well that's absurd.  Is Josh Allen a scrub?  He's good but he ain't Mahomes.

 

Reid is a great OC, the best out there now.  But Mahomes fell to him and, to his credit, he jumped at him.  But to claim that Mahomes and his game was created by Reid is to create a fantasy.  Reid put Mahomes to very good use with great players around him, let's leave it at that.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

22 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When were Sammy, Woods, Brown, and Beasley on the Bills team

They weren't but if we would have resigned Sammy and Woods, drafted Mahomes and then brought in Brown and Beasley it could have been a fun bunch. Its a possibility that could have existed this year had we made those moves at the time.

[sullim4]

If I were him, I would sacrifice the overall dollar amount in exchange for a 100% guaranteed deal over many years.  I have no doubt that KC will pay him whatever he wants, but why shackle your team's cap to such a degree that they can't sign guys that will put you in a position to win?  This is the formula that Brady and the cheaters in Foxboro followed.

 

He's going to have enough cash to dramatically change his life either way.  He can shoot a few more State Farm commercials to make up the difference.