revisiting 2018 draft possibilities. Did we overpay?

[Ramza86]

70% of scouts wanted Lamar to switch to WR. 

 

 

[entropyrules]

54 minutes ago, r00tabaga said:

We suck.

I want Russ Brandon back.

 

I wish I could revisit the 2002 dating scene. I should have married Amanda instead of Amy.

no you did the right thing Amanda was really OCD

[Mark Vader]

38 minutes ago, r00tabaga said:

Giants fan...... I'm good

So tell us all about Amanda

[LeviF]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Huh?  Where did I say the sky was falling?  I was never against trading up, i was against trading a bounty into the top 5.

 

I liked Lamar and was fine staying put and taking him.  But by the time draft night came around, Allen was #2 on my board behind Baker and was quite fine with the trade up we did do.  I don’t feel like it was too much to get the guy they coveted.  Top 5 would have cost both our firsts (so no Edmunds) and possible our next years 1 or 2.  Did not want to pay that much.  
 

I did not want to give up what it would take to get inside top 5 though, nor did we need to.  I said all the way leading up to draft that neither Giants or Broncos would take a QB and that only 2 QBs would go top 5 and we didn’t need to trade that high.

 

 

 

I didn't go back and look at the original post (or your entire body of posting pre-draft 2018), just worked off of what OP poorly quoted.  My post was based on the assumption that you believed a QB worth trading up for would only be available in the top 5 and we'd have to pay the premium to get him. 

[r00tabaga]

3 minutes ago, entropyrules said:

no you did the right thing Amanda was really OCD

Haha, this is true.....we must know each other........??????

Edited November 19, 2019 by r00tabaga

[stosh64]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

  That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson.  We got ridiculed by many.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

So tell us all about Amanda

 

Last name huggenkiss?

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Let’s revisit this in 5 years. The style of quarterback Lamar plays has shown it doesn’t have a long shelf life. 

Can’t you say the same for Allen though? In fact, Allen has missed more games than Jackson in his career.  But it’s way to early for this though. 
 

but it’s not too early to say how terrible trading up for Zay and not staying put and taking JuJu or Kupp was! ?

40 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Constant.

 

No one loves looking backward more than Bills fans.

 

You really think Bills fans are the only ones to do this? 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

Finding a franchise QB trumps all of that IMO. For once, the Bills actually positioned themselves to take a gamble on that elusive (potential) replacement to Kelly....

 

In hindsight, it's easy to say that the Bills would be ok if they didn't trade away picks and instead drafted from the list of players in the OP, but back then it was still guessing. And many of those players look the way they do because of the team and system they play in. They all wouldn't necessarily be the same player in Buffalo. That may be especially true for Lamar Jackson, who has Greg Roman as OC and is having his 3rd go around with a mobile QB in the NFL as OC. 

 

That would also mean going into 2018 with AJ McCarron as starter. No one knows how he would play as a full time starter, but there's a reason he hasn't cracked "backup duty" other than due to injury in the NFL. So if we can use hindsight here, it's pretty safe to assume that the Bills probably aren't doing too much damage with those young draft picks and McCarron. McDermott may have afforded himself an extra year by making the playoffs in year one, but his job still hangs in the balance of the results on the field.

 

I have a hard time imagining the Bills winning more than 7-9 games last year with McCarron/Peterman/insert journeyman, and probably a similar record this year. Before you know it, it's 2020 (year 4), and you still don't have a franchise QB or success on the field. McBeane get the ax, and many of those prized players that were drafted with all of those picks (instead of being aggressive and hedging your bets on a rookie QB prospect and MLB in 2018) get tired of losing and "same ole Bills", and end up leaving in free agency the first chance they get. Instead, the Bills stuck to the plan that they started with, and so far, it's paid off. 

[Jasovon]

45 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

I hate this argument.  If a guy can play he could play, stop it with the BS of oh he is in the perfect environment that is why he is good crap.  Same thing with mahomes.  Mahomes would be successful on any team in the league because he is super talented. 

This is flat out not true. If we had drafted him and started him in 2017 he would have been ruined. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

He went last for a reason.  Stop with the hindsight.  It was one of the most QB needy drafts in recent memory and everyone passed on him. 
 

Also, Lamar isn’t who he is right now if he’s not playing in that Roman offense.  Right place, right time. 

 

Absurdly low wonderlic, vanilla offense, low velocity throws - there were red flags.  

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

3/28/18 is not hindsight brother

It’s actually the definition of hindsight.  No one dreamed Jackson would be this good.

 

They got their guy.  They got their MLB as well.  Not bad.

[CLTbills]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

3/28/18 is not hindsight brother

20 months ago most definitely is hindsight

[Augie]

I’ll pay a bit extra if it’s for a Franchise QB. You NEED that part......and I hope he’s that guy. Time will tell. I won’t say cost doesn’t matter, but it’s like “vacation dollars” to me. ?

[Seoulofstone]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

I love Josh, and I'm happy he is the Bills QB.  That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson.  We got ridiculed by many.

 

Alphadawg created a whole thread, The Case For Lamar Jackson.

 

Let the record state on 3/28/18- I am extremely against trading up into top 6 for QB- and massively overpaying.  The opportunity cost of squandering picks 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and a 2019 1st(which will be a high draft pick if we sacrifice drafts for a rookie QB).  Impact players that the Bills could miss out on(and whom would instantly upgrade Bills starters) include:

Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Tremaine Edmunds, Isiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Frank Ragnow, Denzel Ward, Lamar Jackson, Ronald Jones, Guice,  Vander Esch, James Washington, Cortland Sutton, Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Mata’afa, Rashan Evans, Taven Bryan, Harrison Phillips, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst, Payne, Equanemius, Baker, Sam Hubbard, Ballage, etc.

 

Imagine if we stayed pat(or even better traded back)- the depth we would have on this team. Moral of the story- don't trade up, keep your picks,stockpile draft picks, let the board come to you

 

 

 

We could have 7 of the above and all our draft picks.  Or we can risk it all on a QB ad give all that up.

Please revisit and either give me **** or give me props.  Peace out

 

 I will say that way too many people completely wrote off Lamar and Josh. I felt that at the time. People talked about Darnold, Baker and Rosen as though they were almost certain to pan out. Maybe this is just my memory but I seem to remember the Mahomes and Watson QB class as derided by comparison- everyone said that the next class would be superior. Mahomes was just an air raid QB and Watson was too small and a product of Clemson  I would say as of now many of the pieces I read about many of these guys were wrong although it does make a huge difference where they end up and their supporting cast.

 

@Pete  To your point about the guys they could have got if they hadn't traded up? I see a few guys who have been disappointing on that list. Equaneimeous, Ballage, Price, Bryan. Some of them don't even make sense-are you going to drop Poyer or Hyde for Derwin James? Isn't that a wasted pick with so many other holes?

 

My feeling is even of you didn't like the 2018 draft it made.sense in terms of  an overall strategy, so even of the picks don't pan out I can get behind it.

[mjt328]

Sometimes I think we overthink these things, and hold GMs to a ridiculously high standard.

These guys aren't psychics.

 

Brandon Beane stepped onto a team without a franchise QB, and he correctly identified we needed one to become a winning team.

At that point, his job was to identify which QB(s) had the best chance to reach that level, and then get into a position to draft him.

He anticipated we may need additional draft capitol to get into that position, and started making moves in advance to obtain it.

 

Prior to the 2017 season, he didn't know when we would be drafting.  He didn't know exactly which QBs would declare and were going to be available.  Even once the draft order was set, there was still no way for him to predict what the other 31 teams were going to do, or exactly what draft slot he needed to be in to get the guy he wanted.  And even if he also liked Lamar Jackson and was comfortable taking him as Plan B to Josh Allen, he couldn't have predicted whether either guy would be available outside the Top 10.  Don't forget there were other QB-needy teams looking to trade-up.

 

In my opinion, Beane should be judged on whether Allen turns out to be a franchise QB.  Period.

If he doesn't and Jackson does - then I think we can level some criticism.  

Anything else is asking him to predict the future, which is obviously impossible.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, LeviF91 said:

 

Wait, what?  We picked 7, 16, 96 in the first three rounds of 2018 and at 9 in the first in 2019.  So we essentially traded 12, 22, 53, 56, and 65 for 7 and 16 (we also got 154 [Siran Neal] from BAL but we're just talking first three rounds I guess).

 

So we have Allen, Edmunds, Harrison Phillips.  Are there a couple of guys in that list above I'd love to add?  Sure, and we might have gotten a couple of them had we stood pat and kept the extra three picks (maybe even still getting Edmunds and Phillips!).  There's also a few that look like busts at the moment.  I don't think the sky fell quite like Alphadawg thought it might by trading up. 

 

Taron Johnson in the 4th in addition to Neal.  We also drafted Teller in the 5th, who we then moved with a 2021 7th for 5th and 6th rounders in 2020.  So we got our starting QB, MLB, rotational DT, NCB, Backup NCB and lead gunner, and a guy we flipped for 2 more picks.... thats a pretty solid draft no?  

[TC in St. Louis]

When we were approaching the draft, I theorized that we were sandbagging and going for Lamar.  

 

But I think they got the guy they wanted.  And, thanks to Cleveland not taking Chubb, he dropped to Denver, and we only had to give up one of our first rounders to get Josh Allen.  Excellent.  We used that pick and another to trade up for Edmunds.  Excellent.

 

How would you like to be the guy who traded up for Trubisky?  They gave up the 3rd pick, #67, #111, and a 3rd rounder in the next draft.....to move up one slot.  I don't think San Fran was going to draft Trubisky.  By the way, the 49ers got their tight end, George Kittle, with the 146th pick.  Why didn't we draft that guy?  

 

It's all a crap shoot.  I know there is absolutely nothing original about that statement.  Jason Peters was an UDFA tight end from Arkansas.  Life goes on.

[HOUSE]

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, TC in St. Louis said:

When we were approaching the draft, I theorized that we were sandbagging and going for Lamar.  

 

But I think they got the guy they wanted.  And, thanks to Cleveland not taking Chubb, he dropped to Denver, and we only had to give up one of our first rounders to get Josh Allen.  Excellent.  We used that pick and another to trade up for Edmunds.  Excellent.

 

How would you like to be the guy who traded up for Trubisky?  They gave up the 3rd pick, #67, #111, and a 3rd rounder in the next draft.....to move up one slot.  I don't think San Fran was going to draft Trubisky.  By the way, the 49ers got their tight end, George Kittle, with the 146th pick.  Why didn't we draft that guy?  

 

It's all a crap shoot.  I know there is absolutely nothing original about that statement.  Jason Peters was an UDFA tight end from Arkansas.  Life goes on.

 

Yeah - we could have just - drafted mahomes in 2017 too... He already won an MVP and isn't just the flavor of the month at the moment.  Or watson.  

 

You literally do not know who is going to be good or bad at draft time.  Mayfield shredded as much as watson did in college - and he's struggling this year.  Murray is plugged into an O that is basically the same as his college O - with vastly different results.  Mahomes came from an air raid offense of throwing the ball 70 times a game (remember when he threw for 734 yards and 7 TDs against oklahoma?  Yeesh)  His "hero ball" seems to always work for whatever reason too.  

[JMF2006]

I am fine with how it worked out.

 

Josh, Edmunds and Phillips are all studs.

 

Neal is pretty good too

Edited November 19, 2019 by JMF2006
Neal

[atlbillsfan1975]

59 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Can’t you say the same for Allen though? In fact, Allen has missed more games than Jackson in his career.  But it’s way to early for this though. 
 

but it’s not too early to say how terrible trading up for Zay and not staying put and taking JuJu or Kupp was! ?

You really think Bills fans are the only ones to do this? 

Zay trade was on Whaley. Glad he is gone. 

[Philo]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Here's how I think we need to look at it. If Josh becomes a 10-15 year franchise guy then it was worth it. If not, then no. Lamar is going to give you 5-8 years playing this style. That's why he fell. If your argument is no one saw this coming from him then I call BS. He was electric in college and won the Heisman. It seemed pretty clear at the time you could build your offense around his skill set and win right away in this modern NFL where you can't hit people.   

 

We picked Josh for the long-term upside. The issue is most guys who don't show glimpses of being a franchise QB within the first two years rarely ever get there. Hopefully Josh can buck the trend.

 

Are you implying Josh has not shown a single glimpse of being a franchise QB? ?

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You really think Bills fans are the only ones to do this? 

 

He said more...as in more than fans of other teams. 

[John from Riverside]

We were not the only team in on Allen

 

There will ALWAYS be players we "could have had" when it comes to the draft

[Mike in Horseheads]

2 hours ago, r00tabaga said:

We suck.

I want Russ Brandon back.

 

I wish I could revisit the 2002 dating scene. I should have married Amanda instead of Amy.

Amanda is hot?

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Amanda is hot?

Amanda’s are way hotter than Amy’s.  It’s science. 

[VW82]

14 minutes ago, Philo said:

 

Are you implying Josh has not shown a single glimpse of being a franchise QB? ?

 

 

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. 

 

Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.  

Edited November 19, 2019 by VW82

[FLFan]

This is the worst kind of kind of hindsight and backwards analysis and is really not credible.  There is not even any point trying to refute it, but I will say this: When it comes to QB, make your analysis, decide on who you want, and do whatever is necessary to get that player.  Nothing else makes sense.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

32 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Amanda’s are way hotter than Amy’s.  It’s science. 

 

I'm not so sure. Knew a couple REALLY hot amys in high school. ?

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

No one should ever trade up, unless you going to get a blue chip franchise QB at the top of the draft.

 

That's my rule at least.

 

McBeane love to trade up all the time and have been burned by it.

 

 

 

Thats not exactly accurate b/c although Beane wasn’t officially on the staff, Whaley had nothing to do with trading back, passing on Maholmes, and getting Treh White at 28.  Beane you know was consult d by McD the whole way.

 

He moves around sometimes up and sometimes down.  It’s easy to play hindsight about guys like Maholmes, Wilson for that matter, and Jackson.  I think Josh will grow into a long term franchise QB, and Jackson may work out, or he could end up like Cam, getting slammed for too much rushing.  I’m not saying it will happen and yes Allen rushes as well, but he is pretty smart about it, and sliding a lot more this year and also much larger even though athletic than Jackson.

[Philo]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. 

 

Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.  

 

Didn't we replace virtually the entire offense around him this year? What does that say about the talent around him for the first season of his career? Would that qualify as extreme circumstances to you?

 

Also, I'm digging the tired old 300 yards argument as a top qualifier. I'll take his stack of impressive 4th quarter performances any day of the week and twice on Sunday. He has absolutely shown the ability. He is still learning consistency, as is the rest of the offense around him.

 

I don't mean to bash your entire post, because saying that most non Bills fans would likely keep him out of their top 20 QBs right now is an arguable point, but to say he has not shown glimpses of being the guy is completely disingenuous IMO.

[LABILLBACKER]

5 years from now Lamar Jackson will turn out just like RG3, Cam Newton and other mobile qbs who were eventually forced to be pocket passers. Right now he may be breaking ankles but eventually he'll be the one breaking down.  I'll take my chances with Josh.

[Albany,n.y.]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

I love Josh, and I'm happy he is the Bills QB.  That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson.  We got ridiculed by many.

 

Alphadawg created a whole thread, The Case For Lamar Jackson.

 

Let the record state on 3/28/18- I am extremely against trading up into top 6 for QB- and massively overpaying.  The opportunity cost of squandering picks 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and a 2019 1st(which will be a high draft pick if we sacrifice drafts for a rookie QB).  Impact players that the Bills could miss out on(and whom would instantly upgrade Bills starters) include:

Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Tremaine Edmunds, Isiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Frank Ragnow, Denzel Ward, Lamar Jackson, Ronald Jones, Guice,  Vander Esch, James Washington, Cortland Sutton, Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Mata’afa, Rashan Evans, Taven Bryan, Harrison Phillips, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst, Payne, Equanemius, Baker, Sam Hubbard, Ballage, etc.

 

Imagine if we stayed pat(or even better traded back)- the depth we would have on this team. Moral of the story- don't trade up, keep your picks,stockpile draft picks, let the board come to you

 

 

 

We could have 7 of the above and all our draft picks.  Or we can risk it all on a QB ad give all that up.

Please revisit and either give me **** or give me props.  Peace out

Here's the problem, neither you or Alphadawg are employed by the Bills.  The real employees had a list of their top 6 QBs (as leaked with photos of their board before the draft) and Jackson wasn't on that list.  They had the QBs rated in order, Allen, Darnold, & Mayfield=they were willing to trade up as high as 5 if any of those 3 were available.  After that the remaining 3, in order were Rosen, Rudolph & Lauletta-NO JACKSON.  So the whole premise that we could have stood pat & taken Jackson without trading up doesn't work because they would have taken either Rosen (who is looking like the bust of that QB class) or Rudolph, who isn't exactly lighting things up in Pittsburgh.    

 

I'd rather have traded up for Allen than be stuck with bust Rosen or mediocre Rudolph, or worse yet, Lauletta who got cut after 1 season with the NYG.  Any way you look at it, the Bills were never drafting Jackson, no matter what your opinion was before the draft.  You can only be critical of the team not drafting a player they were interested in.  The Bills scouts never liked Jackson.  Over the years there are a lot of pre-draft posts about players the poster wants the Bills to draft.  When one plays better than the player the team the poster posts something similar to what you've done, however if the team didn't like the player to begin with, your whole point is moot.  

[Scott7975]

19/28 161 yards 1TD 3INTs but they won

9/20 143 yards 0 0 but they won

17/23 163 yards 1TD but they won

 

Allen gets crucified win or lose for these stats.  The owner of those stats gets called an MVP candidate.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Scott7975

[VW82]

7 minutes ago, Philo said:

 

Didn't we replace virtually the entire offense around him this year? What does that say about the talent around him for the first season of his career? Would that qualify as extreme circumstances to you?

 

Also, I'm digging the tired old 300 yards argument as a top qualifier. I'll take his stack of impressive 4th quarter performances any day of the week and twice on Sunday. He has absolutely shown the ability. He is still learning consistency, as is the rest of the offense around him.

 

I don't mean to bash your entire post, because saying that most non Bills fans would likely keep him out of their top 20 QBs right now is an arguable point, but to say he has not shown glimpses of being the guy is completely disingenuous IMO.

 

We did replace everyone around him and yet we're still one of the bottom offenses in the NFL this year (and mostly because of the passing game) despite playing one of the weakest opponent schedules in recent memory. I guess I'm not sure what qualifies as glimpses. It can't all be 4th quarter heroics.

 

The impression I get from reading this forum is many Bills fans are convinced Allen's already shown he can be a franchise guy. I think there's some natural bias there. It doesn't feel like he's getting that treatment from opposing fan bases. For context, I don't think very many NFL fans are sold that Baker or Darnold or Rosen are going to be franchise guys either. Most would take Lamar as a franchise guy within the right offense, but only for the next 3-5 years given his style of play. It feels like all the 2018 guys are still in wait and see mode.   

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. 

 

Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.  

that's nothing more than your opinion. I think we can all agree Allen has shown marked improvement across a number of categories from year 1 to now. Not bad for a kid who went to that high-octane program at Wyoming ......?

[VW82]

1 minute ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

that's nothing more than your opinion. I think we can all agree Allen has shown marked improvement across a number of categories from year 1 to now. Not bad for a kid who went to that high-octane program at Wyoming ......?

 

It's the combined opinion of other NFL fans I've talked to who follow it closely, plus the opinions of people covering the league on podcasts, who write about it, etc. Plus he's outside the top 20 in most of the main QB statistical categories: 26th in passing YPG, 26th in QBR, 23rd in QB rating, etc. 

 

I think pretty much everyone agrees he's improved from the start of 2018 to now.  

[Orlando Tim]

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Let’s revisit this in 5 years. The style of quarterback Lamar plays has shown it doesn’t have a long shelf life. 

I do right now think he is different because he does not take direct hits- at least the times I have seen him play- so he might last longer than expected.

[Philo]

10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

We did replace everyone around him and yet we're still one of the bottom offenses in the NFL this year (and mostly because of the passing game) despite playing one of the weakest opponent schedules in recent memory. I guess I'm not sure what qualifies as glimpses. It can't all be 4th quarter heroics.

 

The impression I get from reading this forum is many Bills fans are convinced Allen's already shown he can be a franchise guy. I think there's some natural bias there. It doesn't feel like he's getting that treatment from opposing fan bases. For context, I don't think very many NFL fans are sold that Baker or Darnold or Rosen are going to be franchise guys either. Most would take Lamar as a franchise guy within the right offense, but only for the next 3-5 years given his style of play. It feels like all the 2018 guys are still in wait and see mode.   

 

How do we not expect growing pains when this is done? I have definitely seen strides in Josh's game since the beginning of this season, not to mention his strides last season with a less talented group. The offense is getting there.

 

Yes, exactly. They are ALL still in wait and see mode. I just take issue with you claiming Josh has not shown a single glimpse in his career thus far.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Trading away the chance to pick Mahomes in 2017 looks like the biggest draft gaffe in team history.

 

But going up to get Allen was a sound move (and man were they lucky to get a second shot at a potential franchise QB the next year....and I'd rather be lucky than good).

 

The idea that trading up is somehow inherently bad business is just ignorance.

 

Giants traded up for Eli........and the picks they gave up netted a future HOF QB and a DPOY.....should've killed them........but instead the Giants won 2 SB's.

 

Bills didn't trade up for Big Ben.......saved draft capital.........got 15 more years out of contention.

 

Goes for WR's too.........Falcons traded a ransom to move up for Julio Jones and killed the Browns in that deal.

 

Lot's of trade ups turn out one-sided for the team that traded up.