Any Buyer's Remorse From Teams That Drafted QB in Round 1?

[Flip Johnson]

Who, if any, of the five teams who drafted rookie QBs in the first round are experiencing some buyer's remorse and/or paranoia that they might have messed up?

 

I'm granting that none of the rookie QBs are finished products or lost causes and that they could all benefit from more weapons, better offensive infrastructure, etc.

 

I think the consensus right now would be:

 

1. I think Browns fans feel mostly great about Mayfield and are just excited about the 2019 coaching staff and how Mayfield could continue to develop. 

 

2. Jets fans feel semi-optimistic about Sam Darnold, but are more than a little concerned with his penchant to turn the ball over along with the possibility that maybe they should have taken Josh Allen instead.

 

3. Bills fans have a touch of fear from the past twenty years, but in general, feel really optimistic that JA is a budding superstar.

 

4. Arizona fans are hoping for weapons, coaching, etc., but have to be wondering if they really messed up on the Rosen pick. Fear level should be high here as he just doesn't seem to have the physicality or the playmaking ability anywhere near the other four QBs.

 

5. Don't know how Baltimore fans couldn't feel great about Lamar Jackson. Sustainability is a long term question but he has given them a spark and an identity.

 

Side note: I am THRILLED the Pats did not draft Jackson. 

Additional note: The teams that put off the QB search like the Pats or the teams that middled it with later round picks (Giants with Lauletta, Steelers with Rudolph, Jaguars with Tanner Lee) have a lot to think about, because those look like wasted picks at this point, and there search for the future has not progressed.

Edited December 11, 2018 by Flip Johnson

[John from Riverside]

I am thinking at this point none of them have buyers remorse

 

They have all had ups and downs.....but have shown glimpses or promise (Mayfield above all)

[Doc]

Too soon to have buyer's remorse. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

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[jahnyc]

Allen certainly has shown flashes of talent, but I am wondering a bit about Edmunds.  Gave up a valuable pick to move up to take him, and it seems players drafted after him are having outstanding rookie seasons (e.g., Vander Esch, Evans, and Ridley).  I know he is very young, so hopefully he will continue to develop, but I am not sure he is a true MLB.

[Phil The Thrill]

Cleveland fans are pumped and I would be too.

 

I think the other 4 QB’s have shown enough for each fan base to feel optimistic.

 

Rosen, Allen, and Darnold, are all on very poor offenses with limited talent around them.  It’s hard to get an evaluation after year 1, but I think they’ve done well so far.

 

Jackson has a little bit offense and better talent around him.  While he didn’t put up huge passing numbers, I think he did decent enough.  I would agree that running him 26 times is not sustainable and like Allen, he will need to show that he can beat teams with his arm to be a great QB.  

 

I think perhaps, the most encouraging out of the 4 is Allen.  Not because he looked the best, but because already we are seeing him elevate the bad talent around him.  We’ve also seen occasional flashes.  

 

Funny but for a “parody of a QB” (by Football Outsiders) he’s really not doing too bad and doing much better than fan boys turned self-appointed “Draft scouts” like Johnny Ledyard and Joey Marino predicted.  Man F those guys

[26CornerBlitz]

No. Far too soon.

[Nextmanup]

I would suggest Baker Mayfield has done enough to separate himself from all the other big names.  He's in the "he's going to be fine" camp.

 

The rest have had ups and downs and are in different situations.  Too early to comment definitively on any of them.

 

This time next year this conversation will be a lot more interesting and informed.

 

 

[GRHater69]

I think Mayfield is the best of the class at this point and it will be on their front office to maximize his talents with a good coaching staff. He has a good supporting cast thanks to all those low finishes the Browns have had. Darnold will be a good one as well, but the same will hold true for him depending on what the Jets do in the off season. Rosen is on a bad team right now, worse than the Bills or Jets and while I doubt Wilks goes one and done, if things don't get better next year, they may also be shaking things up next year

 

Edmunds is a boy in a man's body. He's playing a difficult position at 20 years of age. It also wouldn't surprise me if he's hitting the rookie wall as well. He should be much better next year with a full year of film study and NFL strength and conditioning. I do like what I've seen from Allen, but am also realistic. He does seem to have more between the ears than JP or EJ which hopefully means he can develop and be coached out of bad habits. Now to be fair, Trent Edwards had more brain power than those other two guys and washed out. But I'd like to think Allen has more mental toughness than Trent. Trent had potential, bit the hits and the Ints got in his head. We need to remember where Allen came from also, Wyoming is not a big time school program compared to the other guys.  The fact that he's gotten this far has made me take more notice.

 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

Looks like if you picked any of them you'd be in a good position for a few years. 

 

I think its Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Jackson/Rosen in terms of ranking right and overall potential.

[PolishPrince]

9 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Cleveland fans are pumped and I would be too.

 

I think the other 4 QB’s have shown enough for each fan base to feel optimistic.

 

Rosen, Allen, and Darnold, are all on very poor offenses with limited talent around them.  It’s hard to get an evaluation after year 1, but I think they’ve done well so far.

  

Jackson has a little bit offense and better talent around him.  While he didn’t put up huge passing numbers, I think he did decent enough.  I would agree that running him 26 times is not sustainable and like Allen, he will need to show that he can beat teams with his arm to be a great QB.  

 

I think perhaps, the most encouraging out of the 4 is Allen.  Not because he looked the best, but because already we are seeing him elevate the bad talent around him.  We’ve also seen occasional flashes.  

 

Funny but for a “parody of a QB” (by Football Outsiders) he’s really not doing too bad and doing much better than fan boys turned self-appointed “Draft scouts” like Johnny Ledyard and Joey Marino predicted.  Man F those guys

Mostly agree with your assessment, except Rosen. I have been following him and I dont think he brings much upside. I was originally in the "wrong Josh" crowd come draft day... but wow I dont think Rosen looks good at all. Slow, has made some poor reads/decisions... his arm looks weaker than I thought. He can throw the ball far, but seems to lack zip on intermediate-deep throws.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[SoCal Deek]

It’s actually amazing that they’ve all done OK. If anyone’s concerned I’d think it’d be Cardinal fans.

[thebandit27]

I said from the beginning that I think all 5 will have a real shot to become franchise QBs, and I see no reason to deviate from that opinion now.

[PolishPrince]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Looks like if you picked any of them you'd be in a good position for a few years. 

 

I think its Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Jackson/Rosen in terms of ranking right and overall potential.

I agree with this as far as current ranking of the QB's... now Mayfield was who I was hoping we would get so I like seeing him succeed (Brown fans deserve it too)... but honestly I feel like Mayfield is kind of at his ceiling already. I watch him, he makes some gutsy throws/decisions - looks like a good QB and will be solid for a long time. Allen seems to be mostly improving every game, and obviously has the measurable's that COULD put him over the edge later. Obviously though no one really knows at the point and its all speculation

[Rc2catch]

For me Rosen actually looks the worst. He possibly has the best weapons and their offense just looks pathetic. Like ours the first half of the season lol only it’s been all year for them. 

Right now I think we’d kill to see allen with a washed up Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk with David Johnson 

[Ronin]

32 minutes ago, Doc said:

Too soon to have buyer's remorse. 

 

It is too soon.  

 

But it is safe to say that several GMs (if not HCs) future career's are directly tied to their choices as such.  

 

As usual, season two for them will begin to round out the picture as you imply.  

 

I do think that both fans and media are placing way too much emphasis on Allen's rushing prowess and not nearly enough on his passing prowess in terms of premature evaluations.  If his running continues we may never find out how he develops as a passer.  That's not what you want your franchise QB to be doing and running does not make up for below-average throwing.  

 

No doubt Allen can make all the throws, but there have been a number of such QBs that have come thru the NFL with similar physical gifts in terms of arm-strength, and those that could not effectively read defenses and utilize all of their receiving options were not long for this league.  

 

Right now, as was before the Draft, the only QB of that batch that I would have wagered on is Mayfield.   I would  bet that Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson never become franchise QBs however.  

[TigerJ]

I think it's generally too early for any teams to be experiencing buyers remorse.  Fans are another issue entirely. For any team, fan opinions are going to be all over the map on any given issue, so yeah, I think there are fans of any of the five teams with new first round QBs who are ready to dump their shiny new QB.

[BillsVet]

It takes 2-3 years to judge a draft pick unless they flat out bomb, so I don't get why people need to know right now or speculate about rookies who aren't even finished with their rookie season.

 

The 4 QBs taken in the top 10 all went to bad teams.  Teams without a decent supporting cast. 

 

It's OK to wait before needing to determine who has "buyer's remorse."  Sometimes no thread is better than initiating a thread. 

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Rc2catch said:

For me Rosen actually looks the worst. He possibly has the best weapons and their offense just looks pathetic. Like ours the first half of the season lol only it’s been all year for them. 

Right now I think we’d kill to see allen with a washed up Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk with David Johnson 

 

No he doesn't. He has the worst OL that has been decimated by injury and no weapons besides David Johnson and Fitz. Chritian Kirk is out for the season BTW. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Rochesterfan]

36 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

Who, if any, of the five teams who drafted rookie QBs in the first round are experiencing some buyer's remorse and/or paranoia that they might have messed up?

 

I'm granting that none of the rookie QBs are finished products or lost causes and that they could all benefit from more weapons, better offensive infrastructure, etc.

 

I think the consensus right now would be:

 

1. I think Browns fans feel mostly great about Mayfield and are just excited about the 2019 coaching staff and how Mayfield could continue to develop. 

 

2. Jets fans feel semi-optimistic about Sam Darnold, but are more than a little concerned with his penchant to turn the ball over along with the possibility that maybe they should have taken Josh Allen instead.

 

3. Bills fans have a touch of fear from the past twenty years, but in general, feel really optimistic that JA is a budding superstar.

 

4. Arizona fans are hoping for weapons, coaching, etc., but have to be wondering if they really messed up on the Rosen pick. Fear level should be high here as he just doesn't seem to have the physicality or the playmaking ability anywhere near the other four QBs.

 

5. Don't know how Baltimore fans couldn't feel great about Lamar Jackson. Sustainability is a long term question but he has given them a spark and an identity.

 

Side note: I am THRILLED the Pats did not draft Jackson. 

Additional note: The teams that put off the QB search like the Pats or the teams that middled it with later round picks (Giants with Lauletta, Steelers with Rudolph, Jaguars with Tanner Lee) have a lot to think about, because those look like wasted picks at this point, and there search for the future has not progressed.

 

 

I can’t imagine any of the teams that got a QB are having remorse right now.  All have shown progress and all potentially give hope to the future.

 

The only buyers remorse I can think is the teams like the Giants that really now appear to need a QB and were in position, but did not take one and they ended up with Barkley who is having himself a good season.

 

Other teams like the Jags might regret missing out, but their draft position precluded a big move up and I am not sure Jackson is what they would have wanted.

[Rc2catch]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

No he doesn't he has the worst OL that has been decimated by injury and no weapons besides David Johnson and Fitz. Chritian Kirk is out for the season BTW. 

I know Kirks out now, but all the rookies have pretty bad o lines minus maybe Baltimore. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Rc2catch said:

I know Kirks out now, but all the rookies have pretty bad o lines minus maybe Baltimore. 

 

The Cards have the worst OL in football. Everyone they planned on starting is out with all backups. They are horrid. 

[thenorthremembers]

Mayfield is far and away the best of the bunch.  Right now, Lamar Jackson comes in second, but I think it has a lot to do with the team he is on.   Allen and Darnold are incredibly close at this point, and you can see why those were the two guys it seemed to come down to for Buffalo.  

 

I dont believe Rosen will ever become a top quarterback in the league.  I didn't when he was coming out, and I dont now.  Nothing about him looks to be anything more than average.

 

When you look at first round quarterbacks analytics will tell you they hit at about a 30% success rate.  When you apply that to this draft class, and assume Baker is one success, its likely that only one other guy is a success long term.

 

I think Jackson will come to Earth, and think it comes down to Darnold or Allen.   Otherwise, lets hope this is the 2004 draft class redux. 

[Teddy KGB]

47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I am thinking at this point none of them have buyers remorse

 

They have all had ups and downs.....but have shown glimpses or promise (Mayfield above all)

 

Arizona might.    Rosen’s doing nothing with solid weapons 

[CodeMonkey]

54 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

2. Jets fans feel semi-optimistic about Sam Darnold, but are more than a little concerned with his penchant to turn the ball over along with the possibility that maybe they should have taken Josh Allen instead.

 

3. Bills fans have a touch of fear from the past twenty years, but in general, feel really optimistic that JA is a budding superstar.

 

Bills fan view?

[corta765]

Agreed with this. Rosen has yet to have a breakout moment and is in by far the worst support system of all of them. Every other QB I could list a game or two (if not more) where they lit it up for a bit or elevated their play where they dominated, I haven't seen that from Josh and I wanted him. Part of the problem is their offensive scheme was garbage and even with Larry they lack playmakers minus Christian Kirk who is injured or David Johnson who is improperly used.

 

Rosen is going to lose Fitzgerald possibly this offseason and if they do not fire the coach I don't have much faith he will amount to much.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

Agreed with this. Rosen has yet to have a breakout moment and is in by far the worst support system of all of them. Every other QB I could list a game or two (if not more) where they lit it up for a bit or elevated their play where they dominated, I haven't seen that from Josh and I wanted him. Part of the problem is their offensive scheme was garbage and even with Larry they lack playmakers minus Christian Kirk who is injured or David Johnson who is improperly used.

 

Rosen is going to lose Fitzgerald possibly this offseason and if they do not fire the coach I don't have much faith he will amount to much.

 

Josh Rosen making the most of makeshift offensive line

 

There’s a reason many NFL teams don’t want to play rookie quarterbacks.

 

But the Cardinals have taken the problems with protecting theirs to a ridiculous extreme.

 

When left tackle D.J. Humphries was lost for the rest of the season to a knee injury, he became their sixth offensive lineman to go on injured reserve this season. That includes the entire projected starting five on the offensive line, a trend that began when center A.Q. Shipley was lost for the year in a preseason scrimmage.

 

“We can’t worry about what we don’t have at this time of the year,” Cardinals coach Steve Wilks said, via Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic. “We just have to go out and execute.”

 

Of course, standing first-round pick Josh Rosen in front of a firing squad of replacement blockers might not be the best plan. Rosen has been sacked 26 times, including 23 in the last seven weeks.

 

So despite the fact that Shipley, Humphries, Justin Pugh, Mike Iupati, John Wetzel, and Jeremy Vujnovich are on IR, they’re proceeding as best they can. They also cut veteran tackle Andre Smith because he was playing poorly, continuing the revolving door.

 

For the record, their starting offensive line at the moment is as follows: Seventh-round rookie left tackle Korey Cunningham, sixth-round rookie left guard Colby Gossett (who they signed off the Vikings practice squad), third-round rookie center Mason Cole, journeyman right guard Oday Aboushi, and right tackle Will Holden, a second-year player who was in camp with them, was cut, and was on the Saints’ and Colts’ practice squads this year.

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

good write-up. Thanks!

[MJS]

I don't see what people see in Jackson. He is a dynamic runner, for sure, but passing is below par. Very similar to Allen in that respect, except I view Allen as having a higher ceiling because of his arm talent.

 

But the verdict is not set in stone for any of these guys. It will still be a couple of years before we really know.

 

And the same goes for Mahomes, by the way. We've seen QB's have great years and then decline as the rest of the NFL caught up (RGIII and Dak Prescott are two examples). He's looked amazing, but let's see if he can do it year in and year out like our current crop of elite QB's.

[eball]

46 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Allen certainly has shown flashes of talent, but I am wondering a bit about Edmunds.  Gave up a valuable pick to move up to take him, and it seems players drafted after him are having outstanding rookie seasons (e.g., Vander Esch, Evans, and Ridley).  I know he is very young, so hopefully he will continue to develop, but I am not sure he is a true MLB.

 

I think it was borderline brilliant to get a somewhat raw guy like Edmunds in a year Beane and McD knew the Bills were unlikely to truly compete.  He gets a full season of coaching and as everyone knows, he has boatloads of talent.  I'm not worried about whether or not he wins DROTY.

[SCBills]

I'd be worried if I was a Cardinals fan.  Rosen was supposedly the most pro-ready and he's been pretty unimpressive.  As for the OL excuse.. It's not like Allen and Darnold have good lines.   Buffalo could very well have 4 new starters on the OL next year. 

 

Mayfield looks great, and not ironically has, by far, the best weapons around him. 

 

I think Bills/Jets fans both feel really good about their QB's.  Bills fans probably a little more so than Jets fans.

 

Lamar Jackson has been very good but when you're offense revolves around "designed" QB runs, there's always the worry of injury.

[billsfan89]

One year in no team has buyers remorse unless the pick was considered a huge unfathomable reach. All 5 rookie QB's went in appropriate draft slots. Rosen over Allen you could argue but Allen was a prospect that would have been drafted in the top 10. So no there is no buyers remorse from any teams just yet. Now year 2 if a QB doesn't start to at least progress beyond their rookie production then you start to have buyers remorse. 

[Jobot]

54 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

It’s actually amazing that they’ve all done OK. If anyone’s concerned I’d think it’d be Cardinal fans.

 

Today's NFL makes it easy to play quarterback.

-It's easier to make up for interceptions (offense is favored)

-You don't have to worry about getting your recievers killed going over the middle.

 

It wouldn't shock me if the position becomes over-concentrated with a smaller separation to the 'elite' qb.

[947]

Lamar Jackson's initial success has a bit of the Tebow Magic feel to it. He's won some games while being a poor passer, and may even get them into the playoffs. He's never going to be a good pocket passer, I don't think what he's doing is sustainable, and I could see Jackson washing out in a year or 2 if the Ravens stay with him over Flacco.

 

As far as the Bills are concerned, I'm ecstatic that we have Allen and not Darnold. Even more glad it's not Rosen.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

It’s actually amazing that they’ve all done OK. If anyone’s concerned I’d think it’d be Cardinal fans.

^^^^^This. Each of them have shown at least something, but it does appear (early on) that Rosen would've been the "Wrong Josh" for us . Let's revisit this time next year however! 

[Doc]

44 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't see what people see in Jackson. He is a dynamic runner, for sure, but passing is below par. Very similar to Allen in that respect, except I view Allen as having a higher ceiling because of his arm talent.

 

But the verdict is not set in stone for any of these guys. It will still be a couple of years before we really know.

 

And the same goes for Mahomes, by the way. We've seen QB's have great years and then decline as the rest of the NFL caught up (RGIII and Dak Prescott are two examples). He's looked amazing, but let's see if he can do it year in and year out like our current crop of elite QB's.

 

I don't see it with Jackson either, but I'd take his supporting cast over Josh's any day and twice on Sundays. 

[TigerJ]

10 minutes ago, 947 said:

Lamar Jackson's initial success has a bit of the Tebow Magic feel to it. He's won some games while being a poor passer, and may even get them into the playoffs. He's never going to be a good pocket passer, I don't think what he's doing is sustainable, and I could see Jackson washing out in a year or 2 if the Ravens stay with him over Flacco.

 

As far as the Bills are concerned, I'm ecstatic that we have Allen and not Darnold. Even more glad it's not Rosen.

I don't know that Lamar Jackson could ever thrive in a conventional offense.  I don't think Josh Allen is conventional yet, but I think he has upside as a conventional passer.  If you're Lamar Jackson's coach, you have to taylor your offense to his skill set, and I don't think it's ever going to change that much.  He's a taller Tyrod Taylor.  If the offensive coordinator is comfortable with that and has a good feel for crafting an offense that fits him, fine.  Otherwise, there may be frustrations ahead.

[HOUSE]

Allen, Darnold and the tiny guy in Cleveland with big head (can't think of his name) are studs

 

83 all over again

Edited December 11, 2018 by HOUSE

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Too soon to have buyer's remorse. 

 

...can't be......the "TBD Doctrine" defines 8 or less games as a "career"......