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Ronin

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  1. I'll be absolutely jacked if Allen puts together a nice season. I'll be jacked if he does that and we go only 8-8 and miss the playoffs. As a personality Allen's tops. You couldn't ask for a better team leader. As to positive posts, when there's something that I consider to be positive to such an extent that it warrants keeping this coach or GM I'll be among the first to say so. Just not seeing it at this point. What I"m curious about is how all of the people here that insist that Allen's going to be among the best this year, that Oliver's going to be the next Darnold, that Singletary's going to replace Shady, that our WRs are finally a good batch, that Knox and/or Kroft will not be injured this season, ditto for Morse, etc., are going to react if/when that all turns out to not be the case. Oh wait, I know how that'll look, we see it every three years or so. As you were. Sorry that my takes bother you. Not sure why. It's only discussion. Sounds like a personal problem to me.
  2. Gee, what a wonderfully insightful critically well-thought out response. Nicely done. I look forward to more original deeply inspiring insights from you in the future.
  3. That's good humor, but if you're really serious, then where does consistency fit into your analysis. Good luck with that one.
  4. Indeed, but after three seasons, even two if we include that first one as a buffer season for reorienting contracts and the like, they've had plenty of time to assemble talent via three drafts now and otherwise two full offseasons of free-agency on their own. There has to be at least a significant trend in the positive direction. Keeping a coach that appears headed for mediocrity even if he doesn't crap out doesn't seem like a good biding of time. To me it more seems like a let's just see if he'll accidentally get it right next year kinda thing. I don't think that's worth waiting around for if there's a better coach available following the season. That's one of the problems we've had with QBs and coaches, instead of making decisions in years where one is available we always seem to passover a year where that's the case and then have less-than-optimal ones to choose from. That was the case with Manuel, instead of taking Russell Wilson, whom I was shocked to still see around in the 3rd although I'd have taken him in the 2nd easily, we waited until the following season and then reached for Manuel in a year when there really were no good QB prospects. Even with Allen, we could have realized that Taylor wasn't a starter and taken Mahomes or Watson, either one. They decided that we didn't need a QB and then they felt that their hand was forced in a year with a lot of risky QBs again. As I've said, I'd have used that mass of picks to build the OL and draft Lock this year. Kind of the opposite, but point being that they drafted from a draft wedged in between two better QB drafts again. Part of building a team is getting optimal value and you don't do that by drafting a position in a draft that is weak for that position. You do it by drafting positions that are rich in that position in any draft. I think they've had enough time to at least get to average all-around if it's going to ever happen on a consistent basis. OK Since you didn't realize, apparently, we had the 22nd ranked scoring offense, the 29th ranked yardage offense, the 18th scoring defense and the 26th yardage defense, and we needed another team to upset their opponent in order for us to "make the playoffs" in which we were summarily ousted. I guess we simply have different definitions of overrated, but there are plenty of people in both the fans and media, even some here, that have said the same. Everyone's entitled to their opinion however, but good luck finding another team that made the playoffs with rankings like that, ever.
  5. Well, "breaking the drought" on its own is pretty meaningless other than to avoid embarrassment for Buffalo. Everyone knows we weren't truly a playoff caliber team. And if we were, then how has McD let it deteriorate so quickly. That's overrated. There has to be a trend towards reaching that goal. We'll see how things shake out, but I envision absolutely no scenario whereby Allen doesn't make massive strides and the heat for McD and Beane doesn't begin. If Allen does that then they'll get a stay. That is an outstanding question. Unless someone on my ignore list has answered it I notice that no one else has answered it. I don't see any such skills. Same for Beane, I see nothing indicative that he knows what he's doing either. Not that that should have been unexpected, he's an OJT GM and therefore was a coin-flip at best.
  6. So assuminng for the sake of this part of the discusssion, that Allen doesn't improve much and Oliver also shows bust, we finish 6-10 again. You don't think that the heat would be on to fire McD and/or Beane?
  7. Did he actually graduate? I don't know, just asking. Still, I get your point. It is befuddling. Must suck having to order a salad with your Wings every time just so you can get ranch dressing. Doesn't have the same flavor tho. Texture's comparable.
  8. Those are bold. I won't comment on the Allen one other than to say that I'd bet more money on him rushing for 1,000 yards than passing for 4,000, and I don't think that his chances of rushing for 1,000 are good. 2. Jordan Poyer will be a Pro Bowler I can see that happening. I wouldn't put money on it but I can see it happening. 3. Devin Singletary will out-gain LeSean McCoy I can see Singletary outgaining Jones in receiving. If McCoy bounces back he'll lead the team in rushing. If not, anyone will be capable of logging more rushing yards. 4. Ed Oliver will finish with more sacks than Trent Murphy, Shaq Lawson Phillips will outplay Oliver 5. Zay Jones will be around 1,000 yards receiving by end of season See #3 above. If Jones hits 1,000 and Foster is our leading WR, then all the nonsense about the receivers sucking last year will have been just that, nonsense. Also, what, Beasley and Brown will have how many yards then? 6. Kevin Johnson will lead the Bills in interceptions The same Kevin Johnson who in 4 seasons and 18 starts has exactly 1 INT, 4 seasons ago? 7. Cody Ford will win right tackle job Not sure why this is so bold, neither Nsecke or Dawkins are the modern reincarnation of House Ballard. I suspect that this may be true at some point, but if so, then again, the existing narrative on Nsecke is likely false. 8. The Bills make the playoffs If Allen throws for 4,000 yards and limits his INTs, we'll make the playoffs. Let's hope so. I have difficulty envisioning that or him keeping his INT/TO totals to non-self-destructing totals. I'll be happier than a pig in a pile of ***** tho if he can do it.
  9. That's the going narrative. I'm just curious tho, I hear this a lot but it seems as if people saying it haven't really looked at the basis for it. When we think of controlling the clock and keeping the defense off the field, two things come to mind, the number of plays run by both the offense and the defense and the associated time-of-possession. Right? Or am I missing something? The implication here is that we ranked near the worst in both. But what's the reality? Offensively the average number of plays run by all 32 teams was 1,007. We ran 1,008, a mere 1 off of average on the season, or 1/16th of a play/game. We ranked 19th in offensive plays run. But the D must've run way more than most of the other teams if they were that tuckered out, right? Defensively we ranked 5th which means that for 27 other teams their D was on the field for more plays than ours. Obviously we must have been on the field time wise more than most other teams. But nope, we ranked purely average with a 30:29 min time-of-possession. We ranked 9th in rushing yards and 6th in rushing attempts or rushing plays. I just ran an analysis of the ratio of offensive plays/team to defensive plays per team and we rank 11th, which is above average. We're one of 19 teams that ran more offensive plays than defensive ones and right in the middle of those 19. I'm still waiting for someone, anyone, to explain to me how and why it is that everyone claims that our D should have been all worn out from having played more than most teams when the data suggests that that is in no way the case. I'm not trying to pick on you and you're hardly the only one that's said that or similar, but seriously, I'm not understanding why anyone believes that because, for example, none of the reasons you gave are valid. I only say that because at the end of the day, for proper and effective analysis one must start with valid premises. I don't think it will matter as many people will continue to say that, but now anyone having read this will know it's not true. So we must then press on for other reasons as to why the issues then.
  10. BTW, to your point, that's how pressure in sports works, it almost always starts with the blatantly obvious and with the most superficial indicators. That's not to say that there aren't good underlying causes that there's often evidence for prior to that point in time, but fans and particularly media who "have to say something" to fill airtime are very reactive, not very proactive or patient for reasons why. Having said that, I didn't care for McBeane's hire to begin with as both were OJT candidates in these roles with only average prior performance at best in McD's case, Beane being all but entirely unknown. I simply don't see any signs of their progress. Whatever they've done to whatever extent it's occurred, has largely been on the backs of the players that have been here prior to their arrival. I mean look at all the lengthy list of free agents that they've brought in, the ones that have worked out best have largely been risk-free players on low-end contracts. With the exception of Micah Hyde and this year's crop of free-agents which we don't have the returns yet, the pricey FAs have been Lotulolei and Murphy. Kroft is next but he's this year's. Poyer's next at a relatively inexpensive (read low-risk) contract averaging $3/season. Except for Hyde, the other most expensive FAs brought on either haven't met expectations or have significant injury risk attached to them. I don't see that as a good long-term building plan by someone that understands how to go about it. I haven't seen any other team built like that while whiffing on their major draft picks like we have.
  11. Could be, using PFF's ratings, our new and improved OL-men aren't much better in pass protection than last year's OL-men, albeit better but only slightly more so in run-blocking. The thing is that we were horrific last year in running the ball, I'm not so confident that wasn't due to a diminished Shady, but if we go on pop-narrative here the reason was because our OL sucked at run blocking too, which of course was a big part of Allen's passing woes. But let's assume that's the case, not sure that still only slightly above-average run-blocking OL-men are going to make that magnitude of a difference. I see Singletary being a factor in the passing (receiving) game but not much in the rushing game. Too many guys like him have come and gone w/o the results as such. He simply doesn't have the speed to much more than an UTM RB but he lacks the size and power to be even average at that. He was a 3rd-rounder, so if he turns into a 500-receiving yard role player it won't have been a bad pick although I'd have made another. I don't know why our staff is so enamored with these small-school players, more than any Bills FO in modern history. I don't see them switching to Barkley, not after that Peterman debacle, and not as a starter anyway. It would understandably call heavily into question McD's competence as such. Allen has no excuse and needs the starting reps, he's simply going to have to play all season barring injury. I can see them yanking Allen so that "he doesn't lose confidence" if he's struggling in a game once, possibly twice, of under the premise that they don't want him to get hurt. If they start Barkley that won't be a good sign for many reasons. First, Barkley's a known quanity. The fact that he posted our best passing game all but literally stepping off of a sofa raises questions as to how horrible our OL really was IMO. But he's not going to play like that for a string of games. After all, that Jet D was horrible. I see Singletary being a factor in the passing (receiving) game but not much in the rushing game. Too many guys like him have come and gone w/o the results as such. He simply doesn't have the speed to much more than an UTM RB but he lacks the size and power to be even average at that. He was a 3rd-rounder, so if he turns into a 500-receiving yard role player it won't have been a bad pick although I'd have made another. He strikes me as a RB that's going to struggle big-time running the ball in the NFL. How Knox plays, if he's even healthy, will be more important. That's how I see it.
  12. I hear ya, but I have to ask, how much of our passing D was predicated upon the notion that our rushing D was very average? (ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed and in a 3-way tie for 25th in rushing TDs allowed) Difficult to say w/o an extended analysis. Of our 6 games with the most rushing yards allowed though we lost 5 of the 6. In those 5 losses we were outscored by an average of 32-8. No reason for opponents to pass the ball although several teams did effectively anyway in those losses. I thought that last season was on of our least consistent ever. Inconsistency is a sign of poor coaching. Good coaching will consistently get whatever can be gotten out of a team, win or lose. We were all over the map on D. The one area where there was consistency was in our losses. Of the 11 games in which we allowed 20+ points we were 1-10. When we allowed 17 or fewer, which were all against teams with below average scoring offenses, we were 5-0. One of those games was with Barkley at QB, our best QB'd game all season. Average margin of defeat in those games was 18.7, which facilitates a diminished need to throw the ball for opponents.
  13. Yeah, I can see the possibility for confusion there, I should have stated that better. I'll edit it. My "slim-to-nil" odds were of the team looking better or improving if as your assumption happens, namely that Allen busts. If Allen busts I really don't envision any scenario where the team overall improves to such an extent that McD deflects heat calling for his firing. The offense including all the newbies won't be helping him at that point, which will leave only improvements to the D. But Kyle's gone, Lorax is in his last season, Hughes is aging, none of them are his players and there isn't much after them that he brought on in the front-7 much less the DL. Even if Oliver turns into the beast that many insist he'll become, which as you know I don't see, then how much that improves the D with essentially Oliver replacing Kyle remains to be seen, but it's a reach to suggest that it'll be enough to offset the incompetence on the offensive side. That's how I see it anyway. Also, we have to start looking forward at that point. I'm simply not seeing what McBeane have done here. Lorax is in his last season, Shady will be fortunate to post a good season and is on his last legs too. Hughes is no spring chicken either. They were all here when he got here but he hasn't backfilled to their levels. Gore ain't long for the team. Who are the ringers that McBeane have brought on? I like Edmunds and the secondary, but short of those I don't see any pending the development of the rookies. How would you see the team improving?
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