Jump to content

Predict the Score: Titans at Bills

26CornerBlitz
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 123
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Pine Barrens Mafia
Pine Barrens Mafia

I predict that no matter the score, 75% of this board will be complaining about something.  

Homey D. Clown
Homey D. Clown

After 20 years of soul crushing, vomit inducing seasons, can you really blame anyone?  If you remove the Jim Kelly seasons, this team is statistically worse than the Washington Generals.   I

CodeMonkey
CodeMonkey

I gotta go at least 90% on that man.  

benderbender Veteran

benderbender

Posted
Posted
On 10/2/2018 at 8:51 AM, Homey D. Clown said:

 

After 20 years of soul crushing, vomit inducing seasons, can you really blame anyone?  If you remove the Jim Kelly seasons, this team is statistically worse than the Washington Generals.

 

I'll accept your post as a statement of fact.  

At least the Generals usually have the lead in the 4th qtr

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Doc Brown Hall of Famer

Doc Brown

Posted
Posted

Last time the Bills were told how horrible they were they destroyed the Vikings in Minnesota.

 

I think our defense creates turnovers and Daboll simplifies the game plan for Allen.  I also think McCoy has his best game of the year.

 

Bills - 22

Titans -10

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GreggTX Veteran

GreggTX

Posted
Posted (edited)

Bills in a squeaker, 16 - 13. Allen still looks way too raw and still has several throws way off target, but the D plays well and Allen does just enough. T Johnson gets his 1st NFL pick and T White snags one too. Marriota pads his stats late in the game, but can't get it done. Bills win on a late TD (Allen - Holmes). Shady finally puts together a solid game as a runner and receiver. Allen scrambles for a couple 1st downs and throws no picks.

Edited by GreggTX
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WideRightRevenge RFA

WideRightRevenge

Posted
Posted

To be clear ... I know like most of us .. I will be yelling for (or at) the Bills all game long ..... BUT

 

Was the Minnesota game a dream?

 

As the other games were nightmares ... given what I've seen in those nightmares .. offensively I don't see us keeping pace with many teams this year but I like what I see by the defense of late  ... based on 4 games .. it appears you can run on the Titans who are ranked 25th in rushing defense (yards per game) .. but in points per game allowed they are 6th with 18 points per game (though played Jax, Hou, Miami, and Philly last week .. sans Philly not exactly offensive juggernauts).

 

We can't pass given the WR's .. we'll see if we can run (does Shady get the reps??) .. but the Titans win in OT last week against Philly the defending SB champs was huge .. so

 

unfortunately if I placed the bet .. I'd take Titans minus the 3.5 in Vegas

 

Titans - 20

Bills - 9 (3 FG's)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Bills Blog RFA

The Bills Blog

Posted
Posted

In the week leading up to a game, there is an incalculably large amount of wasted time and energy spent on analysis of matchups and schemes. In reality, all of this conjecture typically flies out the window within minutes of the start of the game. I would say that the majority of games are effectively decided in the first few possessions, and how those first few possessions go is typically dependent not only on matchups and schemes but also on factors like environment, passion, and luck. The team who starts fast, whether it be on offense or defense, typically wins – and this often takes root prior to "key player X" even touching the ball. Therefore, I propose that there are actually five key components that determine who wins NFL games, and I would rank them in this order:

 

1) Schemes
2) Luck
3) Passion
4) Talent
5) Environment ("home-field advantage")

 

Analysis typically only focuses on talent and schemes – and usually on talent! In my view, talent is one of the least-important of the five factors, yet we spend most of our time comparing rosters and matchups. I should note that this theory only applies to the NFL. In college, where there is a huge discrepancy in talent between one team and the next, it becomes a bigger issue. In the NFL, however, the talent gap is so minimal between teams that other factors (schemes, luck, passion) become more important. Let's break down the five factors.

 

Schemes: The New England Patriots are the New England Patriots not because Tom Brady is physically or mentally superior to most other quarterbacks (news flash: he's not), but because they have developed an offensive scheme that teams cannot stop. It's the coaches, not the players, who make it successful. We have seen it so many times over the years – player X goes down to a season-ending injury and the Patriots machine just keeps going with Joe Schmo from the grocery store catching balls. It's never been about talent in New England. It's about schemes, luck (you can argue whether or not that is NFL-mandated luck, but that's a discussion for another time), and culture (passion).

 

Luck: Statistics have shown that turnovers—specifically fumbles—are random. The ball needs to bounce your way. You need to get the key penalty calls in the critical moments. Momentum is closely related to luck – when you get a takeaway, that increases your momentum because it stokes your passion and, when you're at home, energizes the crowd. Watch, and you will see that the offense scoring a touchdown does not cause a momentum spike like a key turnover does. I believe that luck is the key driver of momentum. If you bring a great team to the field but the other team gets all the breaks, you're probably going to lose despite your passion and talent.

 

Passion: Culture. How often do we hear that word? Bills head coach Sean McDermott made headlines this week when he said, "Culture trumps strategy." Is he right? No, I don't think so, but I think it trumps talent and environment. If you come to a home game with all the talent in the world but you play flat, guess what? You're going to lose unless you get lucky and have a vastly superior gameplan. On the other hand, if you scheme up the other team as well as they scheme you and the ball breaks both ways during the game, the team who can dig deep and find that next gear because of its culture is probably going to win.

 

Talent: As I wrote above, the talent gap in the NFL is so minimal. This is not basketball, where talent is clearly the greatest determinant of winning. In the NFL, we frequently see less-talented teams win because the ball bounced their way and/or their coaches out-schemed the opponent. Where we see talent make a big difference is in evenly matched games where one team's quarterback is simply better than the other. This can definitely be a factor in determining the outcome of games, but I still feel that it is the fourth-most important. I should note that there is one thing that can push talent higher up this list: rookie quarterbacks. Josh Allen is a perfect example. He is so bad right now that he can single-handedly be the reason the Bills lose games. That should change soon, but it might cause a temporary uptick for talent in the hierarchy of the factors of winning.

 

Environment: This one has been bothering me for a while. We often hear the media and fans talk about it being hard to win in certain venues, but the reality is that "home-field advantage" only comes into play depending on what occurs with the other four factors. For example, if the other team comes out with a great opening-drive script, gets a lucky penalty call, and brings passion to the field while the home team starts on its heels, they'll score and the home crowd will be out of it faster than you can snap your fingers. Of all the five factors, it's the easiest to eliminate. It rarely comes into play. I'd say the most it can do is serve to motivate the home team in key situations; I am not convinced that it has a negative effect on the opposing team – in fact, it might even spark them to greater success because of the "us against the world" phenomenon.

 

I concede that it can be hard to analyze things like luck and passion prior to the game, but instead of hearing things like, "If they can get LeSean McCoy the ball 25 times, I think they'll be victorious," we should be hearing things like this: "If they come out with a greater sense of urgency, if Brian Daboll's script is better than Tennessee's, and if the ball bounces their way early, I like their chances to get an early lead and then ride the running game and the energy of the home crowd to a victory."

 

So that's my football theory for the week. Now on to the game pick:

 

Bills over Titans. Sean McDermott has proven in his short time in Buffalo that he can turn things around from one week to the next. Lost in the 22-0 scoreline last week was that the Bills' defense actually played extremely well and there were many missed opportunities for points. I think we will see the Bills come out with a good gameplan (SCHEMES) on both sides of the ball this week. I think we'll start fast on defense (PASSION), which will allow Brian Daboll to work with his full playbook and put Josh Allen in good positions for early success. I think the Bills will be the more desperate team (PASSION), because Tennessee is coming off two big wins and the Bills are fighting to keep their season alive. If the Bills can get the early breaks (LUCK), the home crowd—of which I will be a part—will stay loud and proud throughout, bringing the most out of the team (ENVIRONMENT). There is no question that Tennessee is the more talented team, but I think we'll see the Bills win this week because of the other four factors. Of course, if the Bills don't get that fast start that I expect, this could go in a completely opposite direction. Final score prediction: Bills 24, Titans 13

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OldTimer1960 Veteran

OldTimer1960

Posted
Posted
On October 2, 2018 at 8:38 AM, Chuck Wagon said:

I think the Titans are really good, it's fitting Vrabel is their coach, they remind me of the early Pats teams Vrabel played on before BB/age flushed out guys like Ty Law and Richard Seymour.  Add to it they seem to have our number and I don't see this one ending well.

 

Titans 27 - Bills 6

This seems about right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
freddyjj Veteran

freddyjj

Posted
Posted

Ok my first dive in this end of pool this year.

 

Bills win 27-21 in a close one.  Ray Ray has a PR ST touchdown.  Bills win Turnover battle 2-1 and a Edmunds pick /return sets up a Shady TD.  Allen finally hits Foster on a 64 yd bomb for a TD.

 

Go Bills

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...