Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[JohninMinn.]

Anybody see that weather forecast? Nasty wind.

[RoyBatty is alive]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

15/30 and 50% is hardly ok.

I totally disagree.

 

Using selective stats during horrible conditions, we couldn't run either.

 

Bills had 9 first down throwing versus 1 for NE.  Bills had 1 1st down rushing.  Jones had 19 total yards passing versus 145 for Josh.  Most of the Bills throws were late in the game right into the wind and Patriots could concentrate on defending the pass.

 

 

[billsrul120]

5 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I can’t stand when people claim the wind helps us, since our QB has a better arm.  If our QB has a better arm is zero wind, that advantage lessens as there is more wind.  Using an extreme example, if the winds were 100 mph, neither QB would be able throw the ball forward, and both teams would be forced to run only.  Any wind starts to eat into the advantage of the stronger armed QB.

That is an oversimplification of it.

 

Think of it like this: If both guys can throw it well in perfect weather but one guy can make longer or harder throws, wind will reduce both their capabilities but there is no reason to think it will affect the harder throwing guy more like you are suggesting.  And the higher the wind gets, the closer the weaker arm gets to being useless while the stronger arm is still capable of something. 

 

All this being said I'd prefer no wind. 

[chongli]

Also, Buffalo now has the NFL's longest active win streak at 5. Rams are second with 4, and Pittsburgh and Green Bay are at 3.

 

[Dillenger4]

12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

JJ Watt has been their entire D (stat wise).  His 19 sacks, 36 QB hits, 19 TFL, 4 FF, 1 INT, 1 TD plus tackles and passes defended have

been amazing!  Also having him on the field allows the remaining D to outperform.  His loss is HUGE.

Double team Highsmith in this game would seem the way to go.

 

Compare his D stats with the rest of the Steelers D.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/2023.htm

This is literally a generalization dude. The Pitt D was ranked as high as #3 this season! I'm not comparing Watt to his teammates stats. I'm saying their D is better than Miami's. One of the better AFC D's along with NE and Cleveland. Yes Watt is a loss for them. That's a no-brainer. But don't sleep on the steelers D is my point.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I can’t stand when people claim the wind helps us, since our QB has a better arm.  If our QB has a better arm is zero wind, that advantage lessens as there is more wind.  Using an extreme example, if the winds were 100 mph, neither QB would be able throw the ball forward, and both teams would be forced to run only.  Any wind starts to eat into the advantage of the stronger armed QB.

I mean your logic is flawless when talking about playing football in a hurricane which will absolutely never happen lol.  But in real life, most running football teams have to mix some passes in to keep safeties out of the box and struggle when they cannot do so.  No one is taking mason rudolph seriously in 30mph winds and we will just load up against the run.  With josh or mahomes etc  you don’t have that luxury and the offense is still multi dimensional.  

Edited January 8 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JMM]

Early but really hoping this forecast doesn't come true. Absolutely worse case scenario, the only chance I think the Steelers would have, the weather as a equalizer. They feature a power running game and a solid run D and try to force turnovers. Perfect for that type of weather. Hopefully the home field advantage will hold.

[DapperCam]

How is Rudolph’s arm strength? Pickett’s doesn’t seem amazing from my viewing.

[JohninMinn.]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Stop with the dome non-sense or are you going to complain about it for the next 50 years.

 

Bills are supposedly built for winter weather difficult games and got the one of a 2-3 QBs that have the strength to counter the wind.

Supposedly is the key word. Weather is an equalizer. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

This is literally a generalization dude. The Pitt D was ranked as high as #3 this season! I'm not comparing Watt to his teammates stats. I'm saying their D is better than Miami's. One of the better AFC D's along with NE and Cleveland. Yes Watt is a loss for them. That's a no-brainer. But don't sleep on the steelers D is my point.

I mean you’re both makin valid points but the Steelers are 1-10 without watt lol that seems pretty relevant and isn’t exactly a small sample size.  They could still win sure but I think you are big time underselling how good watt is…its not far off from us missing josh 

 

nobody seems to care about defense when talkin about best players in the league but you could def argue watt is the best player in the league 

Edited January 8 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[strive_for_five_guy]

13 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

Yes, but the marginal difference is where. The game lies. The wind doesn't blow 100mph, it's going to be 20-25 and it's going to impact Rudolph or Pickett more than Allen. We've all seen noodle armed QBs try to play here when it's windy. Sometimes they were ours.

 

9 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

That is an oversimplification of it.

 

Think of it like this: If both guys can throw it well in perfect weather but one guy can make longer or harder throws, wind will reduce both their capabilities but there is no reason to think it will affect the harder throwing guy more like you are suggesting.  And the higher the wind gets, the closer the weaker arm gets to being useless while the stronger arm is still capable of something. 

 

All this being said I'd prefer no wind. 

 

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I mean your logic is flawless when talking about playing football in a hurricane which will absolutely never happen lol.  But in real life, most running football teams have to mix some passes in to keep safeties out of the box and struggle when they cannot do so.  No one is taking mason rudolph seriously in 30mph winds and we will just load up against the run.  With josh or mahomes etc  you don’t have that luxury and the offense is still multi dimensional.  

The more wind there is, the more both teams will need to rely on the run game and not their QB’s arm.  And yes, Rudolph’s passing game would be rendered to zero before Allen’s, but we better hope our running game is also solid in that scenario then too, which I do believe it can be.  Steelers running game is dangerous as well.  @billsrul120 There’s a reason you ultimately say you’d prefer no wind, because of all the uncertainty and equalizing element it brings to the table.

[TheFunPolice]

as crazy as it is, there is a somewhat likely road to the SB for the Bills that is almost the entire AFC North:

 

Steelers

Browns (if they and Miami win this week)

Ravens 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Even if Watt plays, he will be 30-40% at best with that knee.  You can bet they will shoot and brace it.  Just count on him playing.

Edited January 8 by SoonerBillsFan

[bigK14094]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

This is the type of game where we really shouldn’t need Allen to play hero ball (sometimes it is needed).

 

Run the ball well, hit some intermediate routes. Don’t turn it over, and trust your defense to stop Mason Rudolph in bad weather.

Mason Rudolph played at OK state.  He knows cold weather and snow.

[Einstein]

48 minutes ago, nucci said:

you don't keep a player out of a must win game for caution.....especially an abundance

Well, they did...

Rasul said he was ready go back out there and Dane Jackson said he's got it.

[That's No Moon]

15 minutes ago, chongli said:

Also, Buffalo now has the NFL's longest active win streak at 5. Rams are second with 4, and Pittsburgh and Green Bay are at 3.

 

And the one loss was v. The Eagles where we got boned out a fumble recovery that would have won the game.

2 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Mason Rudolph played at OK state.  He knows cold weather and snow.

The college football season is over at OK State on Thanksgiving weekend.

[Blank Stare]

I expect (hope) Linval is up this week. They are going to try to run the football at us all day. That’s just what they do.
 

Najee will get his touches, but is on the slower side. Granted, it was preseason, but we saw what Warren did to Poyer. He makes me a little nervous, but Achane is more explosive than he is so speed shouldn’t be jarring.  I think they have really solid skill position players between Johnson, Pickens, and Friermuth. Not to mention that big load of a rookie TE out of UGA.  
 

Just have to play sound football. No dumb mistakes (drops) or turnovers by Josh. Stop their run game and force Rudolph to beat us underneath and driving the length of the field. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Pitts defense has been good, especially in the last few weeks as their offense has stopped being an epic liability. As a whole unit, they are going to be a tough nut to crack. They have been solid at limiting points. Tomlin coaches disciplined squads.

 

But honestly, the Chiefs defense has been playing better than them in the second half of the year when we faced them. I don't mean that to go with "We Did This to A and A did this to B, so we are going to-" as much as context to how good teams are now with a full season aggregate. If someone has been more recently focused numbers I would appreciate it.

 

Here are Bills 2023 opponents whose ranking in category is better than the Steelers:

 

Points per game

KC

Dallas

 

Total Yards Per Game

KC

Jets

Dallas

New England

Miami

 

Yards Per Play

Jets (#1)

NE

KC

Dallas

Miami

 

Effectively, the same group of opponents give up the same yardage. So it's not that Pitt isn't good, but we are battle tested at this point.

 

Someone who watches them more tell me if I am wrong that they sound like the bend but don't break defense we specialize in.

They are middle of the pack in yards allowed, and are about equally weighted pass to run.

 

My guess is a balanced attack, hopefully with more play action. I love the PA pass to Kincaid (I think in the 1st quarter) 

 

 

[Blackbeard]

I think the run plays where they send Cook east/west up the line of scrimmage, and then up the sidelines aren't working.  

 

More passes to him in space.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

13 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

 

 

The more wind there is, the more both teams will need to rely on the run game and not their QB’s arm.  And yes, Rudolph’s passing game would be rendered to zero before Allen’s, but we better hope our running game is also solid in that scenario then too, which I do believe it can be.  Steelers running game is dangerous as well.  @billsrul120 There’s a reason you ultimately say you’d prefer no wind, because of all the uncertainty and equalizing element it brings to the table.

It’s really not that simple…if you can’t really attempt to pass,the run game suffers also if you can’t at least threaten that you’re two dimensional still.  Yes there’s a point where there’s so much wind that neither team could pass but we are not near that level.
 

The steelers run game is directly linked to how their qb is playing and it really didn’t pick up consistently until Rudolph started hitting passes downfield. A good chunk of the season the Steelers offense was an absolute disaster 

Edited January 8 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Logic]

53 minutes ago, nucci said:

what do you mean they have nothing to lose? It's a playoff game they can lose

My point is that the Steelers are going to have a "nothing to lose" mentality because they're a 7-seed with a 3rd string QB that barely made the playoffs, coming in as 7.5 point underdogs.

You can absolutely bet that Mike Tomlin is going to be in their ears saying "no one believes in us or expects anything from us. We're supposed to lose this week. Show 'em who we are".

Put simply, the pressure is on Buffalo, the 2-seed playing at home that has had demoralizing playoff exits two years in a row. The pressure is not on the 7-seed starting Mason Rudolph at QB, who no one thought would be there anyway.

[chongli]

14 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

as crazy as it is, there is a somewhat likely road to the SB for the Bills that is almost the entire AFC North:

 

Steelers

Browns (if they and Miami win this week)

Ravens 

 

Or Houston (the city was formerly in the AFC North's precursor: the AFC Central, although it was the current Tennessee Titans).

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

My point is that the Steelers are going to have a "nothing to lose" mentality because they're a 7-seed with a 3rd string QB that barely made the playoffs, coming in as 7.5 point underdogs.

You can absolutely bet that Mike Tomlin is going to be in their ears saying "no one believes in us or expects anything from us. We're supposed to lose this week. Show 'em who we are".

Put simply, the pressure is on Buffalo, the 2-seed playing at home that has had demoralizing playoff exits two years in a row. The pressure is not on the 7-seed starting Mason Rudolph at QB, who no one thought would be there anyway.

Our team seems to only play well when the pressure is at its absolute highest possible point these days lol this might have scared me more a few years ago.  Spread is up to -10 despite the over/under dropping to account for the weather for all those wind doomers out there 🤣

[TheWei44]

2 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

I think the run plays where they send Cook east/west up the line of scrimmage, and then up the sidelines aren't working.  

 

More passes to him in space.

Agreed, he seems to do poorly at times going north/south or east/west - Seems better going more diagonally with quick cuts (and passing to him in space, of course, assuming he can hold on to the ball!).

[CaptnCoke11]

16 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Even if Watt plays, he will be 30-40% at best with that knee.  You can bet they will shoot and brace it.  Just count on him playing.

He’s not going to play

[DrDawkinstein]

 

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Our team seems to only play well when the pressure is at its absolute highest possible point these days lol this might have scared me more a few years ago.  Spread is up to -10 despite the over/under dropping to account for the weather for all those wind doomers out there 🤣

 

My biggest worry is that the Steelers arent good enough for the Bills to play UP to.

 

We seem to play down to bad teams, and especially make bad QBs look great.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

My biggest worry is that the Steelers arent good enough for the Bills to play UP to.

 

We seem to play down to bad teams, and especially make bad QBs look great.

I can’t argue with that logic…that’s a way to look at it that actually scares me 😂

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

This game will come down to two things: turnovers and special teams. 
 

we need to be happy with good field position, kicking field goals, and being conservative. Let the inferior team make the mistakes for once.

[RyanC883]

well, at least we haven't lost to any underwhelming QBs this year....

[Shortchaz]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

17 against the Ravens, 30 against the Seahawks, 34 against the Bengals. Dont sleep on them just because they've swapped QBs around a bunch.

It was more a comment on our defense, especially since the return of jones. I expect them to handle the new Steelers o. 

[Since1981]

The expected bad weather and wind favors the 3rd string QB and low powered offense. At least the Bill's D can focus on 0-7 yds. and the run. Weather + Steelers could keep scoring low and leave PIT lingering

Edited January 8 by Since1981

[Shortchaz]

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This game will come down to two things: turnovers and special teams. 
 

we need to be happy with good field position, kicking field goals, and being conservative. Let the inferior team make the mistakes for once.

Agreed. The Bills will have to give the game away (which they have demonstrated a capacity for) if they are going to lose. I give the Steelers about a 4% chance to win this game. 

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

well, at least we haven't lost to any underwhelming QBs this year....

We've been very good at home this year against all QB's.  Tua's the only QB that put up more than 250 passing yards and a lot of that was in garbage time.  Not that concerned assuming Douglas can go.

[Since1981]

16 minutes ago, Logic said:

Put simply, the pressure is on Buffalo, the 2-seed playing at home that has had demoralizing playoff exits two years in a row.

Bill's have learned the lessons and are beating both good and bad teams.

YES, it might be ugly at times, but they've won all styles of games since the Bye plus the removal of Dorsey

[SWATeam]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Pickens didn't have a pass thrown his way last game and yet they won.  

 

So that would be incorrect.    

The game was played in a monsoon.

 

The two prior normal games- since being inserted- Rudolph had unlocked Pickens with 195 and 131 yards respectively while averaging nearly 30 a catch.  

 

Pickens isn't a separator, he's a contested ball specialist and Rudolph is giving him a chance lofting them up.  That's going to be tough in the expected conditions.

[HerdMentality]

Are the Steelers actually bothering to make the trip? 😆🤭

[LABILLBACKER]

27 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

I think the run plays where they send Cook east/west up the line of scrimmage, and then up the sidelines aren't working.  

 

More passes to him in space.

....and hopefully no more drops?

[HurlyBurly51]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

We’ll miss Davis.  Big part of the run game and weather is supposed to be rough.  I’m worried he may have an ACL.

If it is his free agency may dry up and he could be back here on a cap friendly deal.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

The game was played in a monsoon.

 

The two prior normal games- since being inserted- Rudolph had unlocked Pickens with 195 and 131 yards respectively while averaging nearly 30 a catch.  

 

Pickens isn't a separator, he's a contested ball specialist and Rudolph is giving him a chance lofting them up.  That's going to be tough in the expected conditions.

 

20-25 mph winds is good for "lofting"?   

[Low Positive]

This board today just proves that Bills fans wouldn't be Bills fans unless they were miserable and worried sick.