QB Bills Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks. Week 17 Bills over pats Colts over Raiders Jags over Panthers Texans over Titans Steelers over Seahawks All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road Week 18 Dolphins over Bills Jags over Titans Steelers over Ravens Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot. And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties. 2 1 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Darragh Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 and a cheery morning to you too! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 I see almost no chance the Steelers win their last two. The Mason Rudolph story is the same each time. Comes in, cuts it loose and puts up some yards in his first outing, then it all crumbles around him and those yards turn into picks. But you are right it isn't totally home and hosed yet. 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Actually far fetched 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 How probable would you say this is? 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Harbaugh got burned resting his starters in the season finale in 2019 after they clinched the one seed (ironically a win against the Steelers). They came out flat in the divisional round. I don't think he makes that mistake again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) A lot really rides on the AFC South teams and the Steelers Edited December 28, 2023 by gonzo1105 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Pick 8 NFL games any week and let me know when you get all 8. It is possible, agree but the Bills playoff chances are >95% if they win vs NE. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Jones Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said: How probable would you say this is? Seems like it hinges on the Steelers. All of the other games seem very probable to have the outcomes he shows (other than Bills vs Fish…that one is a toss up), but having the Steelers win those last two games seems HIGHLY improbable. 😉 Edited December 28, 2023 by Bob Jones 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said: A lord dies really ride on the AFC South teams and the Steelers "Predictive Text Stole My Posting! Film at 11!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Really need Seahawks to win this week. If Ravens beat Miami, they’re going to have nothing to play for against the Steelers in Week 18. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: "Predictive Text Stole My Posting! Film at 11!" Half asleep posting for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWATeam Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I see almost no chance the Steelers win their last two. The Mason Rudolph story is the same each time. Comes in, cuts it loose and puts up some yards in his first outing, then it all crumbles around him and those yards turn into picks. But you are right it isn't totally home and hosed yet. Ravens may not be playing week 18 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dma0034 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Except Texans and Colts tie in the last week and boom Bills in the playoffs . Bengals have to factor in too. They have Chiefs and Browns. Chiefs are beatable and Browns will have nothing to play for in week 18. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, SWATeam said: Ravens may not be playing week 18 I still don't think the Steelers would beat them. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I see almost no chance the Steelers win their last two. The Mason Rudolph story is the same each time. Comes in, cuts it loose and puts up some yards in his first outing, then it all crumbles around him and those yards turn into picks. But you are right it isn't totally home and hosed yet. This. The Steelers are absolutely awful. Cincinnati’s run was due to end behind Browning, so the result last week was not shocking. Seahawks are at home and fighting for their lives this week as well. I get the BBFS and all, but Buffalo just needs to win out and let the chips fall where they may, going into the playoffs on a heater… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Darragh Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: How probable would you say this is? I would say 3% if we beat the Patriots. (Actually, that's not me saying it, it's the NY Times Playoff Machine, which is the only remaining valuable contribution of the NY Times to modern society.) 4 4 5 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: How probable would you say this is? Somewhat? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 I can see why you say “not so far fetched”. I could see all of those things happening. Just win and we won’t have to sweat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LarryMadman Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) Except i've read all over the sports outlets saying if the Bills win this week they are in. Is that true, IDK, that's just what i've read. Edited December 28, 2023 by LarryMadman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, LarryMadman said: Except i've read all over the sports outlets saying if the Bills win this week they are in. Is that true, IDK, that's just what i've read. There is a way for us to clinch the playoffs this weekend if we also win, that is correct. It has been posted elsewhere on this forum. But this weekend we cannot clinch by our win alone Edited December 28, 2023 by Fan in Chicago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 I mean just to be safe we all have to do a $50 parlay right? 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverOutNick Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 3 hours ago, QB Bills said: After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks. Week 17 Bills over pats Colts over Raiders Jags over Panthers Texans over Titans Steelers over Seahawks All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road Week 18 Dolphins over Bills Jags over Titans Steelers over Ravens Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot. And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties. Definitely more likely that we win and Steelers and bengals lose this weekend and we’re sitting pretty heading into week 18 BUT I would definitely consider doing your scenario parlay for some serious cash just so I make a little money if the world does come crashing down on us lol Think I’ll do a $10 parlay on this just in case now lol Colts ML over Raiders Jags ML over Panthers Texans ML over Titans Steelers ML over Seahawks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, LarryMadman said: Except i've read all over the sports outlets saying if the Bills win this week they are in. Is that true, IDK, that's just what i've read. can you link where you read this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 This is not only possible, it's probable 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlbills13 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 None of those individual results are far-fetched but I just don't see them all happening. But who knows. The Steelers are important but luckily they're playing in Seattle who also needs to win. The Chiefs suck but the Bengals do too and I have to think the Chiefs rebound and win at home this week. I still think the Bills clinch this week. Even the AFC South seems to burning to the ground at this point. The Colts have fluked their way through the season and they're playing a sneaky good/inspired Raiders team. The Texans may get Stroud back but the Titans will always play hard with Vrabel. The Jags are in freefall mode and the Panthers don't have their first round pick so there isn't much tanking going on there. The Bills control their own destiny and that's all you can ask for. Miami is very interesting to me. They're starting to get pretty banged up especially on the offensive side of the ball. If they were to lose this week, next week's game is for the division assuming the Bills win. But if you're Miami, what is more important? Winning and getting the 2 seed but risking your already injured players OR resting anyone in doubt and accepting the likely 6 seed but go into the playoffs more healthy? I'm sure they'll take the riskier route but it actually should be a discussion for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Boo Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 I appreciate the leg work. Good to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospector Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 That’s a wrap boys, shut it down til next year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) 42 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said: This is not only possible, it's probable If something is probable, there is a good chance that it will happen, but it is not certain. If there is a 90% chance of rain today, it is probable [=it is likely] that it will rain. The scenario outlined above has less than a 3% chance of occurring and you use the word probable? Edited December 28, 2023 by JGMcD2 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Two most likely games to go our way this week would be Raiders over Colts and Seahawks over Steelers. Let's at least have one of those two go our way. Don't we also need the Bengals to lose one still as well? Or are we figuring a 3-way tie at 10-7 eliminates them by conference record? If we want to win the division, we want Miami to lose to Baltimore. But if we want our best chance just to make the playoffs a Miami win would be better to keep Baltomore from letting up on the gas pedal vs. the Steelers. 2 hours ago, Bob Jones said: Seems like it hinges on the Steelers. All of the other games seem very probable to have the outcomes he shows (other than Bills vs Fish…that one is a toss up), but having the Steelers win those last two games seems HIGHLY improbable. 😉 Raiders are rolling right now. To me they are slight favorites to beat the Colts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospector Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: If something is probable, there is a good chance that it will happen, but it is not certain. If there is a 90% chance of rain today, it is probable [=it is likely] that it will rain. The scenario outlined above has less than a 3% chance of occurring and you use the word probable? I think he was making a joke based on the original thread title Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Dan Darragh said: I would say 3% if we beat the Patriots. (Actually, that's not me saying it, it's the NY Times Playoff Machine, which is the only remaining valuable contribution of the NY Times to modern society.) The obituaries are still really good… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 hours ago, dma0034 said: Bengals have to factor in too. They have Chiefs and Browns. Chiefs are beatable and Browns will have nothing to play for in week 18. If Miami pulls out the win this week against the Ravens then the division and one seed is on the line for both the Browns and Ravens I think in week 18. 1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said: Definitely more likely that we win and Steelers and bengals lose this weekend and we’re sitting pretty heading into week 18 BUT I would definitely consider doing your scenario parlay for some serious cash just so I make a little money if the world does come crashing down on us lol Think I’ll do a $10 parlay on this just in case now lol Colts ML over Raiders Jags ML over Panthers Texans ML over Titans Steelers ML over Seahawks I thank you. My account ran out of money after we beat the Chiefs and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, or I would do this parlay as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternOHBillsFan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Dan Darragh said: I would say 3% if we beat the Patriots. (Actually, that's not me saying it, it's the NY Times Playoff Machine, which is the only remaining valuable contribution of the NY Times to modern society.) Better than the New York Post, who I can line the bottom of litter boxes with, and their sports section, whose drivel should go directly into the incinerator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiracleAtRich1393 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 4 hours ago, julian said: Actually far fetched Far less far fetched than the string of things that went right for us this past weekend 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
without a drought Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 The Bills could also oversleep and miss the 1 o'clock game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: If something is probable, there is a good chance that it will happen, but it is not certain. If there is a 90% chance of rain today, it is probable [=it is likely] that it will rain. The scenario outlined above has less than a 3% chance of occurring and you use the word probable? All of those outcomes are favorites in their game except Pittsburgh at Seattle and you are putting your trust in Geno Smith? Mason Rudolph's offense looked a lot better last week than what Trubisky could do. If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 This is a lot more plausible than the us not getting in with 11 wins discussion was a few weeks ago, but I’ve still gotta add the reminder that 8 games all going against us even if the winners are mostly favorites is still very small odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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