The not so farfetched way the Bills miss the playoffs

[Belgium_Bill]

It's a constant balance between being certain of the play-offs and still winning the division... Analysis is correct: the main team to root against is the Steelers, and the likeliest "unsuspected help" in the last two weeks has to come from the totally unpredictable Titans.

 

Here's one for you all: which scenario would you prefer after the week 17 games, assuming we have beaten the Pats:

1/ Bills mathematically certain of play-offs but Phins beat Ravens so the division title is gone.

2/ Phins lose so Bills play in Miami for the division title but a loss could spell no play-offs alltogether.

 

Where would you rather be next week ? Apart from right here right now of course....  

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

 

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

It's not nearly that simple.  If the Bills beat NE and lose to MIA, and PIT wins out BUF still has a 67% chance to make it.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

All of those outcomes are favorites in their game except Pittsburgh at Seattle and you are putting your trust in Geno Smith? Mason Rudolph's offense looked a lot better last week than what Trubisky could do.

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

Probable was a poor choice of words. It’s not mathematically probable for the Bills to miss the playoffs at 10-7. 

 

33 minutes ago, Prospector said:

I think he was making a joke based on the original thread title 

Don’t give him that much credit @Prospector

Edited December 28, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

All of those outcomes are favorites in their game except Pittsburgh at Seattle and you are putting your trust in Geno Smith? Mason Rudolph's offense looked a lot better last week than what Trubisky could do.

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

I mean even if you guarantee a pit win there despite there being no guarantee pit beats the ravens backups, you’ve still gotta go 7 for 7 in the other games.

 

look what happened with the ‘we can miss the playoffs with 11 wins’ scenario last week…that would’ve required picking 13/13 games correct the rest of the way a lot of those being favorites and every game but Miami went our way. 

 

these games where one team is a small favorite are 60/40 type games…getting a lot of those to go against you simultaneously is really tough

 

just getting the bills to not finish 2-0 and the Steelers to beat the Seahawks is around 18% odds…then you’ve gotta pile 5 other picks on top of that

Edited December 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Bob Jones]

1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I mean just to be safe we all have to do a $50 parlay right?

Didja see the guy last week who placed a FIVE DOLLAR parlay bet on DraftKings for 14 different players to score a TD, and he got them all right, and he won $489,000? Now THAT was a good day for him.

[KDIGGZ]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I mean even if you guarantee a pit win there despite there being no guarantee pit beats the ravens backups, you’ve still gotta go 7 for 7 in the other games.

 

look what happened with the ‘we can miss the playoffs with 11 wins’ scenario last week…that would’ve required picking 13/13 games correct the rest of the way a lot of those being favorites and every game but Miami went our way. 

 

these games where one team is a small favorite are 60/40 type games…getting a lot of those to go against you simultaneously is really tough

 

just getting the bills to not finish 2-0 and the Steelers to beat the Seahawks is around 18% odds…then you’ve gotta pile 5 other picks on top of that

Don't look at the overall probability, look at each game individually and choose a winner as if you were betting on the game. You will end up with the Bills out of the playoffs

[Einstein's Dog]

If you're going to go all negative nancy and try and figure "The not so far fetched way the Bills can miss the playoffs", it really should be the Bills lose the next two games.  I don't like thinking about it, and don't like to go there but that is your most likely way to keep us out.

 

If you assume the Bills beat the Pats on Sunday the odds are better the Bills can get the 2 seed than they are they will miss the playoffs.

[The Red King]

Neither of our games is an automatic win.  That's why I want to lock a playoff spot up this weekend.  Sooner the better.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Don't look at the overall probability, look at each game individually and choose a winner as if you were betting on the game. You will end up with the Bills out of the playoffs

That is a common pitfall and exactly what not to do.  That thinking leads people into believing very very unlikely things are possible with regards to probability lol. It’s the whole basis behind sportsbooks offering parlays with crazy odds…sure you’ll hear about someone hitting a big one rarely but the overwhelming majority of the time it is free money for them. The odds of just one game not going the way you think are extremely high

 

if there were a lot of different paths to us missing with 10 wins it’s a different story but as it stands you have to pretty much perfectly pick 8 games.  
 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[HerdMentality]

Sounds like the parlay you never admit to.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

Here's another not so far fetched way they could miss the playoffs. The Bills could lose to both NE and Miami. I don't think that will happen but it is not "far fetched" because NE already beat us once, and Miami is legitimately a good team that we will be on the road for.

 

At this point getting into the playoffs despite a loss will be a sign of likely one-and-done in the playoffs.

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

29 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Don't look at the overall probability, look at each game individually and choose a winner as if you were betting on the game. You will end up with the Bills out of the playoffs

Great plan other than the actual statistical probability has been determined as around 95% if they beat the Pats. 

[chongli]

This is a very weird thread to wake up to this morning, eyes still blurry. It feels like deja vu. I had to check to see who the OP was and if this thread was sarcasm. The choice of words: "not so far fetched" didn't help either (vs. "somewhat probable"?), lol.

Edited December 28, 2023 by chongli

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Here's another not so far fetched way they could miss the playoffs. The Bills could lose to both NE and Miami. I don't think that will happen but it is not "far fetched" because NE already beat us once, and Miami is legitimately a good team that we will be on the road for.

 

At this point getting into the playoffs despite a loss will be a sign of likely one-and-done in the playoffs.

 

 

First point I agree with but idk about the second one.  Chiefs were a Melvin Gordon fumble six in the red zone away from blowing an ugly one vs 4-11 Denver last year in week 17 who had drew lock starting then they went on to win the superbowl

 

 

 

[Avisan]

47 minutes ago, Belgium_Bill said:

It's a constant balance between being certain of the play-offs and still winning the division... Analysis is correct: the main team to root against is the Steelers, and the likeliest "unsuspected help" in the last two weeks has to come from the totally unpredictable Titans.

 

Here's one for you all: which scenario would you prefer after the week 17 games, assuming we have beaten the Pats:

1/ Bills mathematically certain of play-offs but Phins beat Ravens so the division title is gone.

2/ Phins lose so Bills play in Miami for the division title but a loss could spell no play-offs alltogether.

 

Where would you rather be next week ? Apart from right here right now of course....  

I want Division + 2 or 3 seed in play.  It makes a huge difference in the Wild Card round and delays us hitting the Ravens until AFCCG.

[Seventeen]

4 minutes ago, Avisan said:

I want Division + 2 or 3 seed in play.  It makes a huge difference in the Wild Card round and delays us hitting the Ravens until AFCCG.

 

#2 seed would be awesome and even better would be having KC come to us in the divisional round. 

[pennstate10]

6 hours ago, QB Bills said:

After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks.

 

Week 17

Bills over pats

Colts over Raiders

Jags over Panthers

Texans over Titans

Steelers over Seahawks

 

All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road

 

Week 18

Dolphins over Bills

Jags over Titans

Steelers over Ravens

 

Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. 

 

Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot.

 

And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties.

Thanks. 
 

The way I see it, the team that is playing the best football, with fewest NEW major injuries, at playoff time is the team that wins the Super Bowl.  Early season wins and losses are irrelevant. We’re now talking about teams that have meshed and found their identities, tweaked coaching and playing styles, have replaced season ending injuries with quality depth. 
 

Personally, I don’t really care if the Bills make the playoffs and lose a first round game. I want a Super Bowl. 
 

So if Bills lose to Miami,that means that this edition of the Bills isn’t Super Bowl quality.  
 

I think this edition has overcome injuries and coaching snafus and is now beginning to play their best. When this Bills team brings focus and their A game they’re outstanding. 
 

Playoffs begin on Sunday. No more mulligans. 

[WotAGuy]

I get BBFS but….why do this to yourself - and the rest of us?

[pennstate10]

57 minutes ago, Belgium_Bill said:

It's a constant balance between being certain of the play-offs and still winning the division... Analysis is correct: the main team to root against is the Steelers, and the likeliest "unsuspected help" in the last two weeks has to come from the totally unpredictable Titans.

 

Here's one for you all: which scenario would you prefer after the week 17 games, assuming we have beaten the Pats:

1/ Bills mathematically certain of play-offs but Phins beat Ravens so the division title is gone.

2/ Phins lose so Bills play in Miami for the division title but a loss could spell no play-offs alltogether.

 

Where would you rather be next week ? Apart from right here right now of course....  

2 all day long. 

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, chongli said:

This is a very weird thread to wake up to this morning, eyes still blurry. It feels like deja vu. I had to check to see who the OP was and if this thread was sarcasm. The choice of words: "not so far fetched" didn't help either (vs. "somewhat probable"?), lol.

 

Did your clock/radio wake you up to some Sonny and Cher? Do you think Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow? 

 

This place! 😂 

[Heitz]

1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:

I get BBFS but….why do this to yourself - and the rest of us?

Some people just like to 💩 in others cheerios 🤷‍♂️

 

[Avisan]

7 minutes ago, Seventeen said:

 

#2 seed would be awesome and even better would be having KC come to us in the divisional round. 

Exactly.  In the first two rounds there are HUGE relative advantages to winning the division vs. getting in as a wildcard team.

[KDIGGZ]

27 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Great plan other than the actual statistical probability has been determined as around 95% if they beat the Pats. 

So you would take the Ravens 2nd and 3rd string over Pittsburgh? Whatever formula you are looking at is not considering that

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Thanks. 
 

The way I see it, the team that is playing the best football, with fewest NEW major injuries, at playoff time is the team that wins the Super Bowl.  Early season wins and losses are irrelevant. We’re now talking about teams that have meshed and found their identities, tweaked coaching and playing styles, have replaced season ending injuries with quality depth. 
 

Personally, I don’t really care if the Bills make the playoffs and lose a first round game. I want a Super Bowl. 
 

So if Bills lose to Miami,that means that this edition of the Bills isn’t Super Bowl quality.  
 

I think this edition has overcome injuries and coaching snafus and is now beginning to play their best. When this Bills team brings focus and their A game they’re outstanding. 
 

Playoffs begin on Sunday. No more mulligans. 

Still don’t get that point really…chiefs looked pretty shaky late in the season last year.  Rams lost to another playoff contender in week 18 the season before that and won the superbowl.  Bucs just snuck by the Zach Wilson jets in week 17 the year before that.  Jets were up 10-24 towards the end of the third quarter

 

Feels like you’re just as likely to see an eventual Super Bowl winner struggle in a game down the stretch as you are dominate 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

29 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

So you would take the Ravens 2nd and 3rd string over Pittsburgh? Whatever formula you are looking at is not considering that

Just because we want Miami to lose week 17 doesn’t mean they will either 😂. Its nearly just as likely Miami wins and Baltimore has to play starters week 18. It’s also more likely than what you’re saying that Miami beats Baltimore and cincy beats kc and Miami is resting starters week 18 against us 

 

it’s also possible that even in your scenario Baltimore plays starters for a half to keep them fresh and still wins.  I believe we murdered Miami like that who was win and in at the time a few years ago 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, QB Bills said:

After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks.

 

Week 17

Bills over pats

Colts over Raiders

Jags over Panthers

Texans over Titans

Steelers over Seahawks

 

All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road

 

Week 18

Dolphins over Bills

Jags over Titans

Steelers over Ravens

 

Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. 

 

Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot.

 

And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties.

 

this.....again??

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

this.....again??

At least this one is like a 1/25 chance instead of a 1/5000 chance 😂. Still very unlikely though.  That last one was too funny…all that talk and it got blown up the first game 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

this.....again??

 

I’m afraid it has become a daily ritual. 🤷‍♂️

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, without a drought said:

The Bills could also oversleep and miss the 1 o'clock game.

 

I hate that, I hate when that happens! 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

There’s also a not so far fetched way I sleep with Margot Robbie.

[QB Bills]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

this.....again??

Serious question..does complaining about another fan's post help make your teeth white or something?

Edited December 28, 2023 by QB Bills

[Bob Jones]

2 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Serious question..does complaining about another fan's post help make your teeth white or something? It seems like the vast majority of your posts are about why someone doesn't need to post something instead of contributing to the discussion. 

I wholeheartedly agree. The other day he called a post of mine "trollish exaggeration" because he disagreed with my OPINION. In the end, he's seeking attention, and throws up many LAMPs. It has to be the latter....there's no other explanation.

 

Edit to add: Apparently I mistook Mr WEO for Dr WHO...my bad. 😕 So for the record, the words immediately above are meant for Dr WHO.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Bob Jones

[ColoradoBills]

Raiders win out.  Bills beat NE.  Steelers beat Ravens.  Chiefs lose out.

Those are 6 games, the result is:

 

Chiefs miss the playoffs.

 

Am I doing this right?

[julian]

I think the percentages on their own dictate this scenario as far fetched, but even if you disagree with the odds and just do as another poster suggested and pick the favourites of all those games necessary for the Bills to miss out, ask your self if doing the same experiment the last few weeks would have generated the the 7% outcome.

 

 I understand the trepidation but I’m not even remotely considering it as plausible outcome.

 

[Whites Bay]

6 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Question for you.  Did you get this off the internet, or did you film it at the San Diego Zoo one afternoon?  One approach is more creative than the other.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think the challenging part here is all 3 of the AFC south teams winning this week.  The steelers winning out will also be a tricky scenario.

 

Stroud is back for Houston, which definitely helps - but the WR group is not the same one he left with.  They're also playing the titans, who while 2-3 in their last 5, are playing some decent football.  They're playing tennessee who they just snuck by in OT with keenum.  Ideally stroud gets you the advantage you need, but the titans did knock off miami and are probably a little pissed off about the recent loss.

 

Jags are playing without lawrence, have lost 4 straight (last 2 have been by multiple scores, and they have 10 turnovers across 3 weeks), and need to win both in this scenario (houston and indy play one another so both cannot finish 10-7).  Carolina isn't good, but they are not going to rollover.  Week 18 in Tenn will also not be easy.

 

Indy gets to play their last 2 at home, but they haven't been playing that consistently in weeks, and are very turnover dependent.  Their poor rush defense faces a raiders team that pretty much will run it til you stop them.  Should be interesting.  

 

Steelers need to win 2x on the road where they are 3-3 this year.  They haven't scored more than 24 in any road game all year, and all 3 wins are by 1 score. 

 

Baltimore will rest starters if they beat miami.  If they don't, miami will rest starters against buffalo.  

Edited December 28, 2023 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Malazan]

Can we merge this with the same thread from like last week?

[Prospector]

1 hour ago, Heitz said:

Some people just like to 💩 in others cheerios 🤷‍♂️

 

I have a friend who is now retired, but when he was a teenager working at a restaurant, him and his brother would pee in the cheese dip every morning. Make sure you bless your food before you eat… I guess that’s the moral of the story

[Ethan in Cleveland]

This is why NFL is king!

Bills have legit shot at #2 seed but as OP pointed out there is still a very remote chance they don't even make the playoffs. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, QB Bills said:

Serious question..does complaining about another fan's post help make your teeth white or something?

 

1 hour ago, Bob Jones said:

I wholeheartedly agree. The other day he called a post of mine "trollish exaggeration" because he disagreed with my OPINION. In the end, he's seeking attention, and throws up many LAMPs. It has to be the latter....there's no other explanation.

 

no you are all free to publish as many redundant threads as you please.  maybe you feel you express your not-so-unique thoughts better than those who originally posted on this same topic---so much so that you couldn't possibly mesh your thoughts with their existing thread!

 

Anyway "Bob Jones", you are confusing me with @Dr. Who, who called one of your posts "trollish exaggeration"... to which you responded:

 

"posting an opinion YOU don’t agree with is not “trollish”, rather, it’s just another view….no need to throw insults and get all high & mighty."

 

You seem to have this problem with a lot of posters.   Maybe you should only post in emojis for a while..