Kickers are 26/27 in FGs against us this year

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

[Playoffs?]

Thank you Ed Oliver!  That’s all I have to say about that. 

[pigpen65]

1 minute ago, Playoffs? said:

Thank you Ed Oliver!  That’s all I have to say about that. 

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

[Dan in Owego]

1 minute ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Jeez crazy 🤔 it really is hard to believe, damn😜

[Special K]

Dicker the Kicker is pretty impressive....you know if he got another chance there was no way he was going to miss it

[Matt_In_NH]

It does feel like luck has not been on our side so far this year.  

[djp14150]

11 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Now we blame the FGs against….

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Just now, djp14150 said:

Now we blame the FGs against….

 

Blame?  It's just an observation about variance.  96% is a couple standard deviations above expected.

[Doc Brown]

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Yeah I really thought they only needed 20 yards to win. Dicker wasn’t gonna miss the game winning 67 yarder. 

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

I think it was a block in that Tampa bay game 

[gobills404]

That’s neat, but I don’t understand what “negative variance” means so I’m just gonna blame McDermott

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

 

Yep

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/shaq-lawson-blocks-chase-mclaughlin-s-50-yard-fg-attempt

[BuffaloRebound]

Even when they miss we have 12 men on field.  

[RiotAct]

22 minutes ago, pigpen65 said:

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

he has to get up to game speed again, at the detriment of the team.  Duh!

[mannc]

The NFL should explore a rule change, in order to speed up games and limit injuries: Any Bills opponent can opt to simply take an automatic 3 points anywhere inside the Bills’ 40-yard line, any time of the game, any weather conditions, without the kicker having to actually take the field. Kinda like an intentional walk in baseball…why waste people’s time with kick that’s guaranteed to be good anyway?  Same with 1-point conversions…

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

Yes, I believe so.  And it’s not just this year…the phenomenon of Bills’ opposing kicker infallibility goes back a long time…

[Rubes]

36 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Thank you for looking that up. I was thinking of doing it myself after this game, since it seemed to me as well that other teams just don’t seem to miss (unless we have 12 men on the field).
 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

6 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Thank you for looking that up. I was thinking of doing it myself after this game, since it seemed to me as well that other teams just don’t seem to miss (unless we have 12 men on the field).
 

 

The kick by Elliott in the Eagles game was the craziest.  61 yards in the wind and rain.  Low line drive that looks like it wants to knuckle but just powers through.  There's no way that was higher than a 20% probability kick.

[BillsGuyOutWest]

Comes full circle in Feb when the opposing kicker misses the game winner against us wide left. 
 

For real good observation, it’s been driving me nuts all year. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by BillsGuyOutWest

[Warcodered]

57 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

That’s neat, but I don’t understand what “negative variance” means so I’m just gonna blame McDermott

If I'm understanding the feeling it's basically like when on one of those deep passes against us where it bounces off our DB into the WRs hands for a TD. Somebody did something to piss off Lady Luck.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, pigpen65 said:

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

 

It’s really upsetting to me that we have Von on the field in these situations. Get someone out there that can make a difference.

[ColoradoBills]

Fire McDermott.

[Warcodered]

It should be 25/27.

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

The NFL should explore a rule change, in order to speed up games and limit injuries: Any Bills opponent can opt to simply take an automatic 3 points anywhere inside the Bills’ 40-yard line, any time of the game, any weather conditions, without the kicker having to actually take the field. Kinda like an intentional walk in baseball…why waste people’s time with kick that’s guaranteed to be good anyway?  Same with 1-point conversions…

Yes, I believe so.  And it’s not just this year…the phenomenon of Bills’ opposing kicker infallibility goes back a long time…

Ha - I actually said basically the same thing to my son during the game - we should be allowed to just concede it to move the game along

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Blame?  It's just an observation about variance.  96% is a couple standard deviations above expected.

Are you factoring in distances kicked? Conditions of the day?

[Dr.Sack]

Bass has missed 5. We would have 2 more wins if Bass didn’t suck. 

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Now we blame the FGs against….

 

Roger Goodell.  Another one of his damn experiments.

25 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Bass has missed 5. We would have 2 more wins if Bass didn’t suck. 

 

Dr.Suck would be so more appropriate and only requires changing of one letter.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

It does feel like luck has not been on our side so far this year.  

Every time someone says we got lucky in the giants game this year I’m like ‘have you watched the rest of the season?’ 😂

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s really upsetting to me that we have Von on the field in these situations. Get someone out there that can make a difference.

He had two pretty good games in a row…today looked like a step backwards though 

[thenorthremembers]

Its not really that incredible.   Given league average youd expect kickers to be 24/28 against the Bills.    Having 3 more made than expected really isn't some sort of gross anomaly.   

 

The "bad luck" narrative, in this instance, is more evident when paralleled with how truly bad Bass has been this year.   When you're watching games with guys like Dicker doing exactly what you'd expect from an NFL kicker and Ole One Eye Paint misses 20% of his kicks, the bad luck narrative is exacerbated.

[BritBill]

Will probably need to see the stats on where the FGs are being kicked from. 
 

Are the Bills particularly good on Redzone D and teams have a higher number of shorter FGs to make? 
 

 

[jlgarsh]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

Yes. Shaq Lawson blocked one earlier this year didn't he?

[ProcessTruster]

8 hours ago, RiotAct said:

he has to get up to game speed again, at the detriment of the team.  Duh!

yep, really not sure what Von is doing out there

[RichRiderBills]

This was/ is crazy. I said something during the game to family. 

 

They always make the 50+ yards against us!

[Man with No Name]

4 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

This was/ is crazy. I said something during the game to family. 

 

They always make the 50+ yards against us!

ya. as soon as the tv guys said they needed 35 yards at the end of the game. i laughed out loud and said MAYBE 25. 

[SoCal Deek]

Great thread and observation. I had zero hope Dicker was going to miss that long field goal against us last night. And sitting in the stadium, at that corner of the field, I can tell you it would’ve been good from well over 60 yards! Maybe our opponents are saving all of their shanks for the playoffs. 

[BuffaloRebound]

Martin was good today, but we seem to consistently lose the special teams battle every week.  2 more kick/punt coverage penalties and a punt return fumble and their kicker was money.  

[BillsFan2313]

8 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Now we blame the FGs against….

 It's not blaming. It's an observation. I even said to my buddies last night after Dicker made the 53 yarder "why does it seem like every kicker drills long attempts against us". The Jack Elliot kick.. that was insane in those conditions. 

[Billy Claude]

8 hours ago, mannc said:

 

Yes, I believe so.  And it’s not just this year…the phenomenon of Bills’ opposing kicker infallibility goes back a long time…

 

I don't think this is true.  Certainly in 2019 there was a couple of kickers who were replaced right after they played the BiIls because they missed a big kick or missed multiple kicks.

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Its not really that incredible.   Given league average youd expect kickers to be 24/28 against the Bills.    Having 3 more made than expected really isn't some sort of gross anomaly.   

 

The "bad luck" narrative, in this instance, is more evident when paralleled with how truly bad Bass has been this year.   When you're watching games with guys like Dicker doing exactly what you'd expect from an NFL kicker and Ole One Eye Paint misses 20% of his kicks, the bad luck narrative is exacerbated.

This is a really weird narrative.

 

By your own standard you say 24/28 would be league average. Fine. Sounds about right. That's 85%. 

 

Bass on the year is 22/27. That's 81%. Basically 2 kicks under par, so to speak. So 4% in your eyes takes you from "league average" to "truly bad"? 

 

Now, I'll gladly admit Bass has had a down year for his normal standard. But the sudden talk this year of Bass being horrible are greatly over exaggerated.

 

On top of that he's 43/44 on extra points. 

[Nextmanup]

9 hours ago, pigpen65 said:

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

I was at that place about a month ago.  He's not getting better, either.

 

I pray we can get out from under his K pending legal proceedings in Texas.