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Thoughts on Knox returning?


Mikie2times

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If you asked me to name two difference makers for the Bills on offense over the past several weeks I'm going with Shakir and Kincaid.  Some might feel Shakir is a JAG, but I think he is a sneaky good route runner. Kincaid is certainly developing into a a legit weapon in front of our eyes. I enjoy Knox's energy, I just don't know where he fits in anymore. If he takes snaps over Kinkaid I feel like we lose. If we go to 12 personnel and he takes snaps away from Shakir I feel we lose. I could see him benefiting us in situational spots as we go to 12 personnel or Dalton needs a breather, but this offense has lived in 3 WR/ 1 TE looks since the Jets game. I think that is our most prolific base formation.

 

Longer term where does Knox fit into all of it? If we cut him next year we save about 6 million. Plenty of dead money comes with it, but again 6 million in savings.  Do any of you think the long term play would be to keep them both? With Brady running point I'm more confident we will not allow his return to derail what we have been doing well. It's sort of weird to feel like this when getting an injured player back. Especially one who has made some plays in the past for us just not so much of late.  

Edited by Mikie2times
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Longer-term is a trickier question.  Short term, he’s a least an upgrade in 12 personnel groupings over Quentin Morris, or is a different look in 11 personnel over Kincaid.  While not a great pass catcher, Know has been a solid weapon for Josh over the past few years.  Plus, my gut is that Brady will be able to better utilize Knox on game days than Dorsey, although we’ll see.  I’d say let’s see how the next few games play out, then revisit the question.

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I've thought something similar... Will Knox take snaps away from Kincaid who's a more reliable weapon, just because he's a number one guy according to his bloated salary?

I hope McChoke applies the same standard of you earn your playing time to the TE group, just like he did with the CBs. We shall see.

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His return would scare me if Dorsey were still here.  I’m excited about his return with Brady……

 

I think his return should eliminate any chance of targeting Gabe Davis 12 times in a game ever again. 

Edited by NewEra
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Knox fills in for Morris.  Takes all his snaps.  
 

Use him in run situations and few PA looks his way. 
 

He should see only 2-3 targets minimum.  
 

Diggs 10-12

Kincaid 8-10

Davis and Shakir 5-10. 
RBs 3-5

 

This about 35 passes.  

 

These numbers go up if we’re in a shootout.  Which every game minus the Patriots is going to be.   

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I've been told Knox and Gabe are good blockers. I sure hope so because they certainly can't catch. Do other teams have terrible pass catchers who are good blockers? I don't recall that being a thing that was in high demand. I don't think we have missed him. When someone at my work is out a month and we don't miss them I think it's pretty clear that we don't need them anymore.

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36 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

Lots of stupid takes in this thread. Between the hate for Knox and Von some of you fans need to grow up and shut up. 

Knox is greatly overpaid for his production and Von was a horrible FA pu.  This has nothing to do with hate.  It's called business.  And if the investigation shows DV then let the hate flow.

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Ever since Knox has been out of the lineup, the offense has been mediocre, as the Bills' record attests. Although Kincade is a more accomplished receiver, his blocking is not as good as Knox's. Plus, all the 2 tight end plays that were practiced during camp could not be used with Morris in the lineup. 

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7 hours ago, NewEra said:

His return would scare me if Dorsey were still here.  I’m excited about his return with Brady……

 

I think he return should eliminate any chance of targeting Gabe Davis 12 times in a game ever again. 

Exactly how I feel. One of the things I was so excited for in training camp was the idea of "Man, if Dorsey can show any sign of creativity we can have one of the most flexible offenses in the league."

 

I expect that we will see effectively 11 coverage with Kincaid put into the slot. You can run unbalanced line formations. You can put Kincaid into the backfield and motion him as a H-back. Kincaid was even used in jet sweeps in college. You can motion Kincaid at the line to diagnose the coverage and be a blind while passing to Knox.

 

Versus Dorsey where we would go with 1 TE on each side and QB draw out of shotgun

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47 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

Knox is there to protect us all from Spencer brown

Honestly, Brown has looked just fine without Knox's help. Pre season narratives aside Brown has actually has been pretty solid over the last 2 months. 

47 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

Knox is there to protect us all from Spencer brown

Honestly, Brown has looked just fine without Knox's help. Pre season narratives aside Brown has actually has been pretty solid over the last 2 months. 

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Think Knox's role will be as the blocking TE but probably one of the best pass catch TE's in the league so teams will need to account for him as a receiver where as a guy like Lee Smith they could ignore except for the one time a year he'd go out and catch a pass. 

 

Is he making too much money as a blocking TE, maybe depending on how many passes he actually catches.  Could see them sticking with the contract for 2024, but once his role is defined more long term, then asking him to take a pay cut.  Or restructure in 2024, then pay cut in 2025?

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I like Quintin but Knox is a better player. 

 

This is also the first game where Joe Brady has Knox and Kincaid in the lineup so it'll be interesting to see how he wants to utilize them. 

 

Definitely keep targeting Kincaid tho, I feel like the dude is due for a monster breakout game. 

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3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

True but my concern is Josh will force more balls to Knox than he would to Morris.

When has Josh forced a pass to Knox in the past?

Never

Knox has more physical talent than just about any TE Bills have ever had. His drops are maddening for all of us. But he has made some great plays for this team and is a legit threat in the pass game unlike Morris. 

 

Super excited to see both Knox and Kincaid in an offense called by Brady. 

 

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7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Knox is greatly overpaid for his production and Von was a horrible FA pu.  This has nothing to do with hate.  It's called business.  And if the investigation shows DV then let the hate flow.

Might want to check his TD production including in the postseason.  The guy scores TD's and is a much needed RZ weapon.  He's also the only complete TE we have, the hate is ridiculous.   

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6 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

I like Quintin but Knox is a better player. 

 

This is also the first game where Joe Brady has Knox and Kincaid in the lineup so it'll be interesting to see how he wants to utilize them. 

 

Definitely keep targeting Kincaid tho, I feel like the dude is due for a monster breakout game. 

Until they forget he exists in the 2nd half.  

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3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

True but my concern is Josh will force more balls to Knox than he would to Morris.

When has Josh forced a pass to Knox in the past?

Never

Knox has more physical talent than just about any TE Bills have ever had. His drops are maddening for all of us. But he has made some great plays for this team and is a legit threat in the pass game unlike Morris. 

 

Super excited to see both Knox and Kincaid in an offense called by Brady. 

 

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Doesn’t Knox isn’t a bad football player, if he’s healthy he has always been a positive to the asset to this offense. The previous 2 seasons he has been a 70%+ catch rate guy with 4 drops each season. Remember the thread asking where all the ‘wow’ catches had been? 
 

I have zero doubt Bills rework his deal to lower the cap hits the next two seasons, he absolutely should stay on this team. 

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11 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Doesn’t Knox isn’t a bad football player, if he’s healthy he has always been a positive to the asset to this offense. The previous 2 seasons he has been a 70%+ catch rate guy with 4 drops each season. Remember the thread asking where all the ‘wow’ catches had been? 
 

I have zero doubt Bills rework his deal to lower the cap hits the next two seasons, he absolutely should stay on this team. 

Agreed.  He’s a nice guy to have on the roster.  Problem was always the contract.  He’s a max $7-8m per year guy.  Give him $10-15m guaranteed over the next 3 years in exchange for pay cut.  Nobody is paying him north of that if he got cut.  Honestly, he’d be lucky to get $6m per year on open market.  

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9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Knox fills in for Morris.  Takes all his snaps.  
 

Use him in run situations and few PA looks his way. 
 

He should see only 2-3 targets minimum.  
 

Diggs 10-12

Kincaid 8-10

Davis and Shakir 5-10. 
RBs 3-5

 

This about 35 passes.  

 

These numbers go up if we’re in a shootout.  Which every game minus the Patriots is going to be.   

 

Exactly. It gets Morris off the field. 

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If we fall to 6-8, very possible even playing pretty well, I could see them trying to showcase Knox, and they should.  He was a top 12ish tight end and should be worth a third in trade value, though the terrible numbers this year have destroyed all hope of a third. Kincaid, on the other hand, will be a special player if he is not one already.  One of those rare players that defenses have to account for every play.  

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12 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

If you asked me to name two difference makers for the Bills on offense over the past several weeks I'm going with Shakir and Kincaid.  Some might feel Shakir is a JAG, but I think he is a sneaky good route runner. Kincaid is certainly developing into a a legit weapon in front of our eyes. I enjoy Knox's energy, I just don't know where he fits in anymore. If he takes snaps over Kinkaid I feel like we lose. If we go to 12 personnel and he takes snaps away from Shakir I feel we lose. I could see him benefiting us in situational spots as we go to 12 personnel or Dalton needs a breather, but this offense has lived in 3 WR/ 1 TE looks since the Jets game. I think that is our most prolific base formation.

 

Longer term where does Knox fit into all of it? If we cut him next year we save about 6 million. Plenty of dead money comes with it, but again 6 million in savings.  Do any of you think the long term play would be to keep them both? With Brady running point I'm more confident we will not allow his return to derail what we have been doing well. It's sort of weird to feel like this when getting an injured player back. Especially one who has made some plays in the past for us just not so much of late.  

 

 

We wouldn't save money cutting Knox next year. $20M in dead cap. We pay him about $10M in salary and bonus next year but about $9M of that is already guaranteed, from what I believe I see from a quick look at Spotrac.

 

2025 is the first year when we could legit think of cutting him without serious cap consequences.

 

I think you're right that we now have kind of a problem because we have enough good pass catchers that it will be a bit tricky to use them all. A good problem to have, IMO. 

 

I think we'll probably play around and see how things go with two TE formations under Coach Brady and go from there with what we find out.

 

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