Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[DBilz2500]

2 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

If they get to 10-7 they'll be in, as long as the only L is Dallas. Any more conference losses make it next to impossible.

Exactly what I’ve been saying. 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record will most likely get us in. With tiebreakers if it’s 3 teams they don’t start with head to head 

[ImpactCorey]

1 minute ago, DBilz2500 said:

Exactly what I’ve been saying. 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record will most likely get us in. With tiebreakers if it’s 3 teams they don’t start with head to head 

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios.  The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1.  What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose.  So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

[BuffBillsForLife]

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

[Charles Romes]

17 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios.  The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1.  What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose.  So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

10-7 missing the playoffs would be the ultimate disaster. Not quite bad enough to justify the house cleaning needed or for draft stock strong enough for a #1 wr, not good enough to make a run at the Lombardi in a year loaded with flawed teams. 

[DCofNC]

9 minutes ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

I said it early on this year and got chastised for it, but this team could easily miss the playoffs and a large part would be the losses down the stretch.  Here we are in the beginning of the tough stretch, sitting 1-1 and because of horrid play early, they can’t lose anymore.   The McHandicap effect has lost a few games this year, I can’t help but believe it will lose us more.   Had it not been for Toney being a complete bone head last night, this season is over already. 
 

 

Gotta go win ‘em all and be ready to keep rolling in the playoffs…. Or hope the boys did well on Black Friday, cause they are going to need a nice TV to watch the playoffs on.

[strive_for_five_guy]

37 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I thought so too... until you actually run through scenarios.  The teams they are in a race with have very easy schedules and because of tie breakers, you need them to lose 2 games if the Bills lose 1.  What's worse, is that even if ONE of the teams loses that needs to, they likely lose to a team that the Bills ALSO need to lose.  So the way I see it, the only way the Bills get in is if they win out.

Agree.  If Broncos don’t lose to Lions next weekend, they’re one of the teams we’ll have a tough time catching.  That’s likely their toughest game left.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Saturday is a big day for us. All 3 games can really help us out or hurt us.

[Ray Stonada]

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Agree.  If Broncos don’t lose to Lions next weekend, they’re one of the teams we’ll have a tough time catching.  That’s likely their toughest game left.

 

I'm baking Denver in as a wildcard that goes one and done in the playoffs. There are two spots left. Of course the route for the Bills now is win out. If we win out we will win the division. 

[BritBill]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

 

I think all 3 of those teams are more than capable of doing to the Dolphins O to what Bills did earlier in the season. 

 

Miami losing last night was massive in terms of giving the Bills a little leeway in their game this week. The last game of the season really could be for the division. 

10 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Saturday is a big day for us. All 3 games can really help us out or hurt us.

 

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Hardest part is always our part. Just win, everything else will take care of itself.

[Kgun5]

1 hour ago, BritBill said:

 

I think all 3 of those teams are more than capable of doing to the Dolphins O to what Bills did earlier in the season. 

 

Miami losing last night was massive in terms of giving the Bills a little leeway in their game this week. The last game of the season really could be for the division. 

 

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

No change in overall playoff chance. Slightly better chance for division title with Colts win.

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, BritBill said:

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

 

Do we have a tie-breaker with either? If so, cheer for that team.

[QCity]

Miami loss boosted their chances by +2% up to 38% as predicted.

 

If your homer blood is overflowing this morning you'll be happy to know the Bills now essentially control their own destiny. If they win out they have an 86% chance of hosting a playoff game.

 

 

Their chances at 3-1 have gone up to ~75% and that's my predicted outcome for them.

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by QCity

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

 

 

The Bills need only to trail the Dolphins by 1 game going into the finale to win the division because they would hold the tie-breaker if they beat them the second time..........so Miami doesn't need to lose 2 games prior to the finale.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

15 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

From 'in the hunt' to 'drawn and quartered' in one fell swoop.

*
Or is it 'one swell foop'?

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

 

I'd say it's less than 15% to win all three of those for Miami.  They're capable but Baltimore and Dallas are both top-3 teams right now.

[finn]

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Miami losing makes it way more likely we can take the division by winning out.

 

We just need them to lose to either Baltimore or Dallas or the Jets.

 

I’d say they have less than 25% shot to win all three of those. 
 

LET’S GO!

Funny, I'm convinced the Bills will win out and the Dolphins will collapse, or at least lose to the adults in the room (Baltimore, Dallas, the Jets, and the Bills). They've been overhyped all year, a sugar-high team with no bottom, as they showed last night against the Titans. 

 

Of course, the Bills have been epic chokers this year, so who's talking. But at least they have a chance of figuring that out and turning it around, as they may have already. I'd rather be the team that loses to bad teams and beats good ones than the other way around. 

[pocoboy]

10 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

I'd say it's less than 15% to win all three of those for Miami.  They're capable but Baltimore and Dallas are both top-3 teams right now.

 

Bottom Line: If the Bills plan to slough off like they have way too often in the last 2 years, they need to get it out of their system this week. Otherwise, they need to be keyed up and ready to annihilate every game on out. You can't be heroic and beat Dallas and then peeter out against the Chargers on the road. Buckle up and do this.

[finn]

24 minutes ago, QCity said:

Miami loss boosted their chances by +2% up to 38% as predicted.

 

If your homer blood is overflowing this morning you'll be happy to know the Bills now essentially control their own destiny. If they win out they have an 86% chance of hosting a playoff game.

 

 

Their chances at 3-1 have gone up to ~75% and that's my predicted outcome for them.

 

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

[QCity]

1 minute ago, finn said:

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

 

A zero in that chart means it's less than 0.5% chance and rounded down. So technically yes but...  dollar and a dream odds.

[Coach Tuesday]

There is a nonzero chance the Jets’ front seven ends Tua’s season on Sunday.

[The Wiz]

 

 

[aristocrat]

7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

There is a nonzero chance the Jets’ front seven ends Tua’s season on Sunday.

No tyreek makes that a huge possibility 

[mjt328]

After last night, I think it's more likely the Bills make the playoffs by winning the AFC East than sneaking in as a Wild Card.  

First of all, I'm very skeptical on us beating Dallas on Sunday.  Might be the best/hottest team we've played all season long, and the Bills are still way too flawed.  As stated multiple times, pretty much all the AFC tiebreakers are working against us.  And if we drop to 7 losses, our only pathway to a Wild Card is having those other teams drop to 8 losses.  Looking at upcoming schedules, I can see that happening with the Steelers, Colts and probably Bengals.  It's very unlikely it happens with the Browns or Jaguars.  Not looking great for the Texans or Broncos.  That would knock us out.

 

Strange enough, the ONLY team in the AFC the Bills could potentially hold a tiebreaker over is the Dolphins.  If we beat them again, we hold the 2-0 head-to-head advantage.  And now with that loss to the Titans, combined with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills... the path to Miami hitting 7 losses is suddenly a realistic scenario.

 

[FTLBillsfan]

The Dolphins loss last night makes it simple. The Bills have to win 1 more game than the Dolphins in the next 3 weeks to play for the AFCE title in Miami in week 17.

I can see both the Bills and Dolphins losing to Dallas, and the fins losing to Baltimore. It almost looks like our chances of winning the AFCE title are better than a wild card  with the tie breakers. Dolphins are one of the only teams in the playoff picture that we have a tie breaker with.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

22 minutes ago, finn said:

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

Looking at the PlayoffStatus website, and factoring in last night's AFC game, there is less than 1% chance of the Bills getting the #1 seed in the AFC.  Still possible, but a lot of planets and stars need to align.  The Bills lost any chance of controlling their playoff destiny with the loss to Denver.

[mannc]

16 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

If the Bills win out then they have a realistic shot at winning the division (fish would need to lose to Dallas and Balt, and they struggle mightily against good teams).  If they lose one game they probably miss completely.  Crazy.

I don’t think that’s right. The Fish only have to lose one of their next three games—then lose to us—to finish 11-6. We would then have the tiebreaker and take the division.

8 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

After last night, I think it's more likely the Bills make the playoffs by winning the AFC East than sneaking in as a Wild Card.  

First of all, I'm very skeptical on us beating Dallas on Sunday.  Might be the best/hottest team we've played all season long, and the Bills are still way too flawed.  As stated multiple times, pretty much all the AFC tiebreakers are working against us.  And if we drop to 7 losses, our only pathway to a Wild Card is having those other teams drop to 8 losses.  Looking at upcoming schedules, I can see that happening with the Steelers, Colts and probably Bengals.  It's very unlikely it happens with the Browns or Jaguars.  Not looking great for the Texans or Broncos.  That would knock us out.

 

Strange enough, the ONLY team in the AFC the Bills could potentially hold a tiebreaker over is the Dolphins.  If we beat them again, we hold the 2-0 head-to-head advantage.  And now with that loss to the Titans, combined with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills... the path to Miami hitting 7 losses is suddenly a realistic scenario.

 

Wow, we might as well not even show up on Sunday, even though we’re favored.

Edited December 12, 2023 by mannc

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

8 hours ago, BritBill said:

 

I think all 3 of those teams are more than capable of doing to the Dolphins O to what Bills did earlier in the season. 

 

Miami losing last night was massive in terms of giving the Bills a little leeway in their game this week. The last game of the season really could be for the division. 

 

What's the best outcome of the Colts/Steelers you think? 

I think it’s more likely that the Steelers keep losing. So I’d guess I’d prefer them to win here and then gives the colts a loss. I think the Steelers stink. They can lose to anyone 

[Gregg]

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, aristocrat said:

No tyreek makes that a huge possibility 

No Connor Williams either, possibly no Terron armstead or Robert hunt either 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, mjt328 said:

After last night, I think it's more likely the Bills make the playoffs by winning the AFC East than sneaking in as a Wild Card.  

First of all, I'm very skeptical on us beating Dallas on Sunday.  Might be the best/hottest team we've played all season long, and the Bills are still way too flawed.  As stated multiple times, pretty much all the AFC tiebreakers are working against us.  And if we drop to 7 losses, our only pathway to a Wild Card is having those other teams drop to 8 losses.  Looking at upcoming schedules, I can see that happening with the Steelers, Colts and probably Bengals.  It's very unlikely it happens with the Browns or Jaguars.  Not looking great for the Texans or Broncos.  That would knock us out.

 

Strange enough, the ONLY team in the AFC the Bills could potentially hold a tiebreaker over is the Dolphins.  If we beat them again, we hold the 2-0 head-to-head advantage.  And now with that loss to the Titans, combined with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills... the path to Miami hitting 7 losses is suddenly a realistic scenario.

 

Tiebreakers get a little murky if it’s a three way tie so you never really know until the games are played.

dolphins may free fall for sure because their entire offensive line is hurt again and tyreek might be banged up.  No jevon holland or jaelan phillips either I think they’re lookin at a 1-3 finish at best.  I don’t think their roster is much better than the jets currently either 

 

the scales have definitely tipped to playing man against them and watching their oline implode before anyone can get open deep

Edited December 12, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JoshAllin]

What sucks is dolphins can lose the next 3 games and bills win the next 3, and in the final game phins can still win the division with a win

[loyal2dagame]

15 minutes ago, motorj said:

What sucks is dolphins can lose the next 3 games and bills win the next 3, and in the final game phins can still win the division with a win

What sucks is the Bills dropping multiple games they had the lead in late in the 4th quarter. Then the Miami split tie breaker wouldn't matter

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

54 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I was actually saying that last night

 

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, finn said:

If the Bills win out, do they have a chance to be the number one seed? The machinations are beyond my weak brain. 

 

Its not very likely.  Ravens already have 10 wins.  Theyd only have to win one game out of the next 4. Then you have the Chiefs, Browns, Jags still 1 game up on us  and then you have like 5 other teams that all are the same record as us right now.  I know a lot of these teams fall off but its very unlikely for us to get the 1 seed.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 hours ago, motorj said:

What sucks is dolphins can lose the next 3 games and bills win the next 3, and in the final game phins can still win the division with a win

In a perfect world that last game is winner takes division and loser is a WC. Just as long as we get in I’ll take any scenario 

[zow2]

I’m assuming KC will still hang on to win the AFC West.  Gonna need them to get right at month end to dispose of Cincinnati on 12/31.

Rooting hard for Detroit over Denver this weekend too, among other games. 

 

Bills obviously need to take care of their business.

[JerseyBills]

Bills being favorites has me even more confident vs Dallas. The casual fan sees that line and looks at the records/momentum and bets Dallas alk day. Vegas knows this, it'll be very competitive,  likely come down to last possesion

9 hours ago, QCity said:

 

A zero in that chart means it's less than 0.5% chance and rounded down. So technically yes but...  dollar and a dream odds.

We'd need a 13 seconds type miracle to get the 1 seed but never know.  Just keep freaking winning 

[AuntieEm]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:55 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

But that’s been the problem with him and the whole team. It’s completely inconsistent every game this year. 
 

this team can beat any team in the nfl. We also can lose to any team as well. It’s so frustrating.

 

Well the way I see it is its a long season and these guys get best up weekly. I'd find it unrealistic to have any team have all players playing at their 100% best for every game.   So I rather be the team that gels and is peaking heading into the post season.  If we take the division and Miami gets a wild card I don't think they will advance. Miami that is.  I think this current Bills team is gelling and is focused.  They maybe learning to get it done and  when both our offense and defense are working as a team then don't see them getting beat.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by AuntieEm