Buffalo03 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, vincec said: His record in one score games in Buffalo is 24-24 in the regular season, and 2-3 in the playoffs, which seems reasonable. But I think the concern is that in the last three years, when the Bills have supposedly had his best teams, it’s 8-14 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs. You would not expect that record from a top 5 NFL team. So, either the Bills have just gotten really unlucky the last few years or something is wrong. I’m not sure the problem is McDermott necessarily, but he is in charge of figuring it out. Yes, 24-24. Fans who say he can't win close games make it sound like he's 0-48 lol. 2022 they won a lot of one score games. This year, they have won 2 Edited November 29, 2023 by Buffalo03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 On 11/27/2023 at 6:22 PM, transplantbillsfan said: Just did a bunch of playoff simulators. Obviously if we win out, we're in. It'd be very, very hard for us not to get in winning out. If Buffalo loses 1, I was actually surprised how many scenarios (plausible ones) they get in. I just hope that's the offense we see the rest of the season. If that's the offense (and more importantly, the Josh Allen) we see for the remainder of the season, anything is possible. I think we CAN get through the rest of the season with 1 loss. I also wouldn't rule out running the table, but no team can ever count on that. Weird things always happen (and if you're the Bills, they happen more frequently). I agree about the offense, and it's actually a bit painful to see them play like we expected now. It's only 2 games, so too early to make a definitive conclusion - but it seems like Dorsey's O held us back and likely cost us a game or 2. It starts with KC, which seems oddly appropriate. Get the win there, and we can start believing a little. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrBob806 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 On 11/27/2023 at 12:40 PM, SCBills said: Steelers and Browns are both playing with fire every game and are bound to start losing some games... but to date, they both have 4 losses and keep winning rock fights against meh opponents - so how are we to just believe that will stop happening? Browns are really banged up, but their "meh" opponents they beat include SF, Ratbirds, Colts, & Steelers. Steelers & Browns are both "offensively challenged" but if they happen to get in, they're more than capable of knocking a team or 2 out. Texans are good, but also young, and could hit a rough patch.. but given their schedule, that's more of a hope than expectation. And now we have to worry about the Colts and Broncos. Dolphins could hit the skids with their final 2 games before our season finale, but they don't seem capable - yet - of losing to bad teams... and I don't love having to hope they remain a team that can't beat good teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Beat the chiefs and cowboys and we will make the playoffs. We aren't losing to the patriots chargers or dolphins with playoffs on the line. IMO. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 Update: these numbers have already changed, for the worse. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#& Our current overall chance of making playoffs: 15% If we lose to KC: 4% If we lose to KC and then win out: 46% Only two scenarios where our chance is above 50/50: Win out, including KC and four more: 97% Beat everyone except Dallas: 63% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chongli Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 11/27/2023 at 3:12 AM, Ray Stonada said: I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). You must be in central Europe, like Germany, France, or Italy? 50 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said: Update: these numbers have already changed, for the worse. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#& Our current overall chance of making playoffs: 15% If we lose to KC: 4% If we lose to KC and then win out: 46% Only two scenarios where our chance is above 50/50: Win out, including KC and four more: 97% Beat everyone except Dallas: 63% Then just win out. It's not that hard. With Josh and the way we played in Philly, we can beat anyone, all the way to a SB win. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 I think we're going to smoke kc Maybe luck out and Mia rests starters 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, chongli said: You must be in central Europe, like Germany, France, or Italy? Then just win out. It's not that hard. With Josh and the way we played in Philly, we can beat anyone, all the way to a SB win. Germany. If we get KC down, I will feel a lot more excited… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said: Germany. If we get KC down, I will feel a lot more excited… Germany?! Have they decided what they're going to do with the Kaiser? 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Germany?! Have they decided what they're going to do with the Kaiser? 🤔 I just wish they'd open stores on Sunday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QB Bills Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 12:12 PM, Process said: Beat the chiefs and cowboys and we will make the playoffs. We aren't losing to the patriots chargers or dolphins with playoffs on the line. IMO. New here? 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 6 hours ago, JerseyBills said: I think we're going to smoke kc Maybe luck out and Mia rests starters we’ll beat Miami (assuming we have something to play for) anyway, even if they don’t rest any starters. Josh owns that team, and they just lost one of their best defensive players for the season. The Chiefs and Chargers games scare me the most out of the remaining 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26TrapDraw Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 11/27/2023 at 3:12 AM, Ray Stonada said: I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. If we win out: >99% chance of making it in If we lose to KC only: 51% If we lose to Cowboys: 63% If we lose to the Chargers: 44% If we lose to the Pats: 51% If we lose to Miami: 45% If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance So there you have it. Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low. I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players. We need to win out and handle our business. If Miami losses against Dallas and Baltimore ( very realistic) that means last week of the season would be for the division. Wouldn’t that be a peach. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 I don’t understand the negativity. All we have to do is win out and then we just need like 6 teams to lose the rest of their games. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Governor said: I don’t understand the negativity. All we have to do is win out and then we just need like 6 teams to lose the rest of their games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Steelers are in trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, Governor said: I don’t understand the negativity. All we have to do is win out and then we just need like 6 teams to lose the rest of their games. Is THAT all??? We’ve got this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 11 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: Update: these numbers have already changed, for the worse. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#& Our current overall chance of making playoffs: 15% If we lose to KC: 4% If we lose to KC and then win out: 46% Only two scenarios where our chance is above 50/50: Win out, including KC and four more: 97% Beat everyone except Dallas: 63% There we go: next week against KC is a playoff game PLUS we have to win at least 3 more... I'm a Buffalo fan but if I had serious money on this, it would be be that the Bills don't make it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 If the Bills run the table, and finish 11-6, they will almost certainly make the playoffs. If the Bills finish 10-7, it won't matter who they lost too, they will almost certainly miss the playoffs. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, RiotAct said: Is THAT all??? We’ve got this. Well, there’s also the ties. We need 3 ties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillMafia716ix Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Those terrible losses to the Jets and Patriots are going to cost us the playoffs. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said: Those terrible losses to the Jets and Patriots are going to cost us the playoffs. In the end, probably true. Still have a shot, but not beating the also-rans put them in bad shape. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Dude Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said: Those terrible losses to the Jets and Patriots are going to cost us the playoffs. These two games are what I keep thinking about. Letting Mac Jones and Zach Wilson look like studs. Inexcusable Edited December 3, 2023 by Buffalo Dude 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said: Those terrible losses to the Jets and Patriots are going to cost us the playoffs. what kills me more than that is that Denver loss. They put up no real opposition. We just were literally dropping the ball all over the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Buffalo Dude said: Letting Mac Jones and Zach Wilson look like studs. Inexcusable Josh Allen's fault! Why didn't he stop them? He's a flawed player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 So is it possible for Miami to lose to Dallas and Baltimore and Bills then us win the division?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnycage46 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, peterpan said: So is it possible for Miami to lose to Dallas and Baltimore and Bills then us win the division?? If Bills win out and Miami loses to the Cowboys and Ravens as well we win division. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: If Bills win out and Miami loses to the Cowboys and Ravens as well we win division. So there’s still a chance!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, finn said: Josh Allen's fault! Why didn't he stop them? He's a flawed player. The worst decision starting this season was allowing Dorsey to continue calling plays. McDermott pulled another Peterman by sticking with him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmotionallyUnstable Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Steelers L Broncos L Browns L (in progress) These have to be positive losses for the Bills wildcard chances. But… Texans W Colts W Got some help, but will have to run the table! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said: Steelers L Broncos L Browns L (in progress) These have to be positive losses for the Bills wildcard chances. But… Texans W Colts W Got some help, but will have to run the table! Bengals loss tomorrow would be nice tomorrow as well. If the Rams can hold on here, pretty danged good afternoon for the Bills all said. But, we’ve gotta take care of business against the Chiefs either way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, RiotAct said: Bengals loss tomorrow would be nice tomorrow as well. If the Rams can hold on here, pretty danged good afternoon for the Bills all said. But, we’ve gotta take care of business against the Chiefs either way. How are the rams letting Flacco drive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, RiotAct said: Bengals loss tomorrow would be nice tomorrow as well. If the Rams can hold on here, pretty danged good afternoon for the Bills all said. But, we’ve gotta take care of business against the Chiefs either way. Its all starting to seem easy for the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, aristocrat said: How are the rams letting Flacco drive? he’s fresh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: The worst decision starting this season was allowing Dorsey to continue calling plays. McDermott pulled another Peterman by sticking with him. McD is incapable of learning from the past. But, you know, hindsight is 20/20. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFBillsfan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Out of 16 AFC teams Bills currently sit in 10th place with losses to 3 teams with worse records. Such a disappointing season thus far and makes me want to vomit seeing Pitt, CLE, Denver, Indy and Houston ahead of us! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 40 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: The worst decision starting this season was allowing Dorsey to continue calling plays. McDermott pulled another Peterman by sticking with him. How many of the losses are because Sean's defense couldn't get a stop to seal the game? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 It reminds me of the 94 season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Try not to be a prisoner of the moment Many of the teams ahead of us are mediocre at best and aren't just going to keep winning 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 minute ago, JaCrispy said: It reminds me of the 94 season complete with San Fran looking like they’ll win it all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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