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Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

Ray Stonada

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I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 


If we win out: >99% chance of making it in


If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%


If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance


So there you have it.


Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.


I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

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5 minutes ago, boyst said:

whats the link for people unable to use google or simply too lazy? (asking for a friend)



Personally I prefer to use this though: https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Edited by Scott7975
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9 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

The only scenario I see where they get in is if they win out and Miami loses to both Baltimore and Dallas.  

Bills beating Miami, and Miami losing to any two other teams is the Bills only realistic chance.  You have identiified the most likely two other losses, but we can pray for upsets. 

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1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

I am trying to convince myself that if McD is shockingly let go, and Doc Brady made interim head coach, we could win the Super Bowl. Just based on Brady's innate feel for situations. But... we'd have no defensive coordinator. AAAAHHHH.

Ah, clever job security strategy for the HC. :)

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1 hour ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

But that’s been the problem with him and the whole team. It’s completely inconsistent every game this year. 

this team can beat any team in the nfl. We also can lose to any team as well. It’s so frustrating.

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Winning out does nothing.




We will lose first round in the most impossible way and guess what? Sean McDermott will still be employed here.


If losing out insures we can McClap, that’s the best outcome for us fans this season and for the future.

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