Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[buffalo2218]

I'm more concerned about our run defense more than anything else. Mostert and Achane aren't exactly scrubs. I know we bottled up Jacobs but Robinson busted off some good runs as well as Hall. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:28 PM, Dr.Sack said:

Bills D will hold Miami under 17. I don’t see Miami scoring 70, 60, 50, 40, 30 or 20. 

Under 17?? No way in hell. 

[harryS]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:28 PM, Dr.Sack said:

Bills D will hold Miami under 17. I don’t see Miami scoring 70, 60, 50, 40, 30 or 20. 

 

a much lesser version of this dolphins team scored 21, 29, and 31 against the Bills last season.  (the playoff game output was aided by Bills turnovers to be fair).

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Since1981]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

a much lesser version of this dolphins team scored 21, 29, and 31 against the Bills last season.  (the playoff game output was aided by Bills turnovers to be fair).

And Tua wasn’t in one game, I could argue he was mentally missing from the other!!

 

Bill O need to score 33

Bills D need to hold to 32

Edited September 27, 2023 by Since1981

[Since1981]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

On 9/24/2023 at 9:28 PM, Dr.Sack said:

Bills D will hold Miami under 17. I don’t see Miami scoring 70, 60, 50, 40, 30 or 20. 

Under 17?? No way in hell

Beautiful day in Buffalo. 17? Bahahaha. Tua IS playing and his head IS clear. This is not your Dad’s Dan Marino yrs

I’ll take the over. 

MIA 31

BUF 33

Edited September 27, 2023 by Since1981

[Pete]

4 hours ago, buffalo2218 said:

I'm more concerned about our run defense more than anything else. Mostert and Achane aren't exactly scrubs. I know we bottled up Jacobs but Robinson busted off some good runs as well as Hall. 

I feel better about this years run defense, but Mosert and Acane make me nervous. I think if we play a lot of cover 3, clogging middle, forcing Tua to throw to sidelines, we limit Tyreek and Tua.  The blueprint to stop Miami is out- watch the Pats-Fins game and take notes.

 

Last week, 14 out of 18 first downs, the Bills were 2nd and 8 or longer.  That has to improve.  We rocked on third down.  But set yourself up.  There is a huge difference in playbook between 2nd and 8, and 2nd and 2. 

 

If Bills control run game and Tua, improve on first down, continue to convert 3rd downs high percentage, win turnover game, Bills win,.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, buffalo2218 said:

I'm more concerned about our run defense more than anything else. Mostert and Achane aren't exactly scrubs. I know we bottled up Jacobs but Robinson busted off some good runs as well as Hall. 

I think it’s really the misdirection with their motions that cause problems with their run game coupled with the speed. McD is a dork but a really smart HC. 

[Since1981]

Don’t be fooled by motion. Protect the center. Force Tua to throw far outside. It’s always been his trouble.
 

 Recognize you can’t stop them but frustrate and 3 pts in a compressed red zone, where speed is less useful. 

[Aimee75]

7 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Crowd noise will be key to confusion. 

Agreed, but I have noticed Bills Mafia gets taken out so easily when things go sideways. I hope they amp up the noise and keep it going, even when Miami has a big gain(something that will surely happen).

[Gregg]

This game feels like the last one with the ball will win. I see a 31-28, 34-30, 35-31 type of game here. 

[dma0034]

Man... I really think the Bills blow out the Dolphins with the only chance the Dolphins have being their running game. I think the Bills D-Line will dominate the Dolphins O-Line. I think the Bills secondary (first time in two years the Dolphins will see a full healthy Bills secondary) will defend the pass well. It's all about just how good that running game is for the Dolphins. I think the Bills get up early and force the Dolphins to abandon the run game. If the Dolphins win it will be because they have 150+ rushing yards

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Will we get the Miami that scored 24 @ NE or the Miami that scored 70 vs. Denver?

 

I look at this game as basically zero percent chance the Bills could lose by more than a TD but about a 10% chance the Bills could really put it on Miami and win by 2+ scores. The goal should be to hold Miami well under 30 points just as NE did. The difference is our offense is very much capable of putting up 30+ if needed. 

 

The last three between these teams have been decided by 2, 3 and 3 points. Bills winning 2 of the last three. Bills -3 see like a perfect line. 

[Chaos]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Will we get the Miami that scored 24 @ NE or the Miami that scored 70 vs. Denver?

 

I look at this game as basically zero percent chance the Bills could lose by more than a TD but about a 10% chance the Bills could really put it on Miami and win by 2+ scores. The goal should be to hold Miami well under 30 points just as NE did. The difference is our offense is very much capable of putting up 30+ if needed. 

 

The last three between these teams have been decided by 2, 3 and 3 points. Bills winning 2 of the last three. Bills -3 see like a perfect line. 

The Bills are under real pressure in this game. Losing at home and falling two games back is a decent size hole to recover from.  This game is going to tell us more about the Bills than the Dolphins.  
 

Are the 2023 Bills a team that can look

prepared, execute well and win important games they are favored to win.  Or are they like the recent Bills teams that can generate impressive statistics against poor teams, but struggle with good teams. 

[jletha]

16 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The Bills are under real pressure in this game. Losing at home and falling two games back is a decent size hole to recover from.  This game is going to tell us more about the Bills than the Dolphins.  
 

Are the 2023 Bills a team that can look

prepared, execute well and win important games they are favored to win.  Or are they like the recent Bills teams that can generate impressive statistics against poor teams, but struggle with good teams. 

The last two seasons we beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Those games were circled in red right when the schedule came out. We can win big games in the regular season and still fade in the playoffs.

 

Obviously a win here is huge for the division title, but it doesn't nullify our chances in February.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9 minutes ago, jletha said:

The last two seasons we beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Those games were circled in red right when the schedule came out. We can win big games in the regular season and still fade in the playoffs.

 

Obviously a win here is huge for the division title, but it doesn't nullify our chances in February.

 

a rare flicker of logic permeates the board. great post.

 

[DapperCam]

4 hours ago, harryS said:

 

a much lesser version of this dolphins team scored 21, 29, and 31 against the Bills last season.  (the playoff game output was aided by Bills turnovers to be fair).

How is that Dolphins team much lesser? Looks very similar actually.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Miami Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins had some nice things to say about Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

Sunday was fun, but it’s time to turn the page.

 

 

Fifth-year defensive tackle Christian Wilkins was asked about the challenges of heading to Buffalo to face quarterback Josh Allen and an offense averaging 30 points per game.

 

“That’s my guy — I love Josh [Allen],” Wilkins said on Monday. “We’re cool, we’re tight. But no, he’s a heck of a competitor. I love playing against him. He definitely brings the best out of you as a defense, as an individual. His resume speaks for itself.

 

But definitely a heck of a player and we’re going to have to be on it this week as a defense and as a team because they’re a really good team and they play tough and we know them, they know us.

 

“There’s no secrets. Just have to go out there and ball, compete, and may the best man.”

 

thephinsider.com

 

scroll down to the comments section to see what fins fans are saying about Allen and the game ahead.

[Gregg]

Keep talking. I really want a Bills win here and not just for the obvious reason but also to shove it down some of these so-called "experts" throats.

 

 

 

 

 

[mead107]

Bills will score 77 

fish 🐟 9

 

[BearNorth]

I think the Bills will do well to study what BB did vs. the Fish.  Fish only scored 24, and their defense is not as good as their offense. 

 

Bills do need to clean up their rushing defense as Mostert has scary speed, and as always figure out a way to keep Hill under control.

 

Hopefully Dorsey has been saving some of the playbook for this game, I suspect the winner will put up somewhere in the 30's.

[Low Positive]

43 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Keep talking. I really want a Bills win here and not just for the obvious reason but also to shove it down some of these so-called "experts" throats.

 

 

 

 

 

Nick Wright is not an expert. He's a Chiefs fan with stupid hair and bad suits that they let on TV for some reason. 

[WV Fin Phan]

10 hours ago, Breakout Squad said:

I read through those posts and I’ve been there before, but holy smokes!!
 

The vitriol towards Allen is intense. Advocating and encouraging cheap shots in some chivalrous sense of revenge makes sense how? That was a sad read 

 

*I’m sure you’re cool tho WV Fin Phan 😎

 

Most of the time these types of comments are put in check.   No one likes a cocky opposing player, but hoping they get hurt is taking it too far.

 

But, I won’t be shedding any tears  if Allen gets knocked around a bunch.

Edited September 27, 2023 by WV Fin Phan

[Low Positive]

What I wouldn't do for a middle finger emoji right about now.

[oldmanfan]

I know in my advancing years memories can sometimes be foggy, but I seem to recall in the first game against the Fish last year we had replacements in every one of the DB spots save for Taron, and we held them down pretty well.  Given we have Tre and Hyde and Poyer in there and an emerging Bernard, plus McD calling what seems to be more aggressive play calls, I think we stand a good chance Sunday.  We won't completely shut them down, but I don't see the Fish running wild.

[stevewin]

The 70 pt game is the best thing that could have happened this week.  Everyone fellating the Dolphins offense and them feeling, dare I say, "historical".  Imagine the motivation for McD and the defense.  I loved Josh's answer when asked about 70 pts right after the game w/o missing a beat "I don’t focus on what they’re doing on that side of the ball"  Better believe the Bills D is.

 

I know Tua is a more experienced player in a different system - but I can't stop thinking about the game in 2021 where the Bills were bringing pressure from all angles and absolutely destroying him until they eventually broke him.

 

Also - all this "I like McDaniels b/c he's different" stuff I don't get.  I think he's a complete tool - to me a total disingenuous douche.  The way he handled Tua's concussion showed his true colors.  I listened to that Playcallers podcast that explored Shanahan/Mcvay origins and when McDaniels was on there he seemed most interested on trying to take credit for things.  And his ridiculous word salad answers where he tries so hard to come off as some quirky clever smartest nerd in the room. F him

Edited September 27, 2023 by stevewin

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I know in my advancing years memories can sometimes be foggy, but I seem to recall in the first game against the Fish last year we had replacements in every one of the DB spots save for Taron, and we held them down pretty well.  Given we have Tre and Hyde and Poyer in there and an emerging Bernard, plus McD calling what seems to be more aggressive play calls, I think we stand a good chance Sunday.  We won't completely shut them down, but I don't see the Fish running wild.

Yes, and by the end of the game Tommy Doyle was playing on a torn ACL because there was no one to sub in for him because everyone was in the lockerroom on IV fluids.

[Nineforty]

17 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I know Jets fans also don't like Milano because he folded Mike white like a lawn chair, and I think there's been some similar sentiment from other fanbases because he's such a hard hitting LB. Dolphins fans are rather sad though that hit on Tua by Milano was so soft, if the guy had any idea how to fall at all, why he took those jujitsu classes, he'd have been fine.

 

And they have no credibility talking about things between Allen and Wilkins with the ***** he's pulled in the pile.

😁

[Behindenemylines]

9 minutes ago, stevewin said:

The 70 pt game is he best thing that could have happened this week.  Everyone fellating the Dolphins offense and them feeling, dare I say, "historical".  Imagine the motivation for McD and the defense.  I loved Josh's answer when asked about 70 pts right after the game w/o missing a beat "I don’t focus on what they’re doing on that side of the ball"  Better believe the Bills D is.

 

I know Tues is a more experienced player in a different system - but I can't stop thinking about the game in 2021 where the Bills were bringing pressure from all angles and absolutely destroying him until they eventually broke him.

 

Also - all this "I like McDaniels b/c he's different" stuff I don't get.  I think he's a complete tool - to me a total disingenuous douche.  The way he handled Tua's concussion showed his true colors.  I listened to that Playcallers podcast that explored Shanahan/Mcvay origins and when McDaniels was on there he seemed most interested on trying to take credit for things.  F him

Agree totally.  F the dolphins. F   coach McDorkel. F their stupid movie star ownership.  F that fan base and their stupid tans. F Tua and his white belt in jujitsu. F Hill and his deck-hand smacking attitude. F their running back room just because.  F the Broncos for their major sucktitude. F Bronco Coach Overhyped and his entire career 

 

Go Bills!

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I don’t care what STs implications it has…STs has been phased out almost completely. It’s not even important anymore. Elam needs to be active this week. You can’t go out with no speed at CB. I’m not dressing a rando STs guy that will make 0 difference and hurting my speed in coverage. We need it this week.

[ddaryl]

28 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

What I wouldn't do for a middle finger emoji right about now.

 

but there are dozens of gifs

[Special K]

26 minutes ago, stevewin said:

 

Also - all this "I like McDaniels b/c he's different" stuff I don't get.  I think he's a complete tool - to me a total disingenuous douche.  The way he handled Tua's concussion showed his true colors.  I listened to that Playcallers podcast that explored Shanahan/Mcvay origins and when McDaniels was on there he seemed most interested on trying to take credit for things.  F him

 

Agree 100% with all of this.

 

 

[Blackbeard]

This week will see our running game more than most.   Dolphins rush D is bad.  Almost last in the league.    Run the ball, control the clock.  Score.

 

Sprinkle in our #2 pass D, and some general Josh Allen magic, and we win.

 

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[Sestak4ever]

I don’t trust McDaniels at all. He will have his players taking cheap shots. It will not be pretty.

[Gregg]

8 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

This week will see our running game more than most.   Dolphins rush D is bad.  Almost last in the league.    Run the ball, control the clock.  Score.

 

Sprinkle in our #2 pass D, and some general Josh Allen magic, and we win.

 

 

 

I said this in another thread but with the exception of Allen I think Cook is the key player in helping the Bills beat the Dolphins. Leads the AFC in rushing and 3rd overall. The Bills run game has been good this year and Allen doesn't have to do the running now even though he can.

[SCBills]

51 minutes ago, stevewin said:

The 70 pt game is the best thing that could have happened this week.  Everyone fellating the Dolphins offense and them feeling, dare I say, "historical".  Imagine the motivation for McD and the defense.  I loved Josh's answer when asked about 70 pts right after the game w/o missing a beat "I don’t focus on what they’re doing on that side of the ball"  Better believe the Bills D is.

 

I know Tua is a more experienced player in a different system - but I can't stop thinking about the game in 2021 where the Bills were bringing pressure from all angles and absolutely destroying him until they eventually broke him.

 

Also - all this "I like McDaniels b/c he's different" stuff I don't get.  I think he's a complete tool - to me a total disingenuous douche.  The way he handled Tua's concussion showed his true colors.  I listened to that Playcallers podcast that explored Shanahan/Mcvay origins and when McDaniels was on there he seemed most interested on trying to take credit for things.  F him

 

I've noticed that no-nonsense type of response twice now..  

 

Allen didn't even blink when asked about it.  Bernard did the same when asked about it on GMFB yesterday. 

[Fleezoid]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

I think the Bills will do well to study what BB did vs. the Fish.  Fish only scored 24, and their defense is not as good as their offense. 

 

Bills do need to clean up their rushing defense as Mostert has scary speed, and as always figure out a way to keep Hill under control.

 

Hopefully Dorsey has been saving some of the playbook for this game, I suspect the winner will put up somewhere in the 30's.

 

I worry more about our run defense than our pass defense. Don't know why it is, but Bills seem to get gashed for huge runs several times every year. When it happens multiple times in a game, that's a recipe for disaster. 

[Mango]

12 hours ago, WV Fin Phan said:

 

We’re split on this issue over at Finheaven.

 

It is just a weird play for me to go "oh yeah, dirty player!". 

I think Philips has a tendency to toe that line on occasion. I think if they talked about the Rapp hit two weeks ago, that is a reasonable conversation. 

When I think dirty play or player I think of Gronk on Tre White laying on the ground. Or Suh trying to stomp on a guy laying there. Not a small shove after the throw. 

Honestly the most egregious thing anybody did in that sequence of events was BS the entire world that Tua just had a back injury, and put him back in the game. I find McDaniels hilarious and a good coach. I have come to liking the guy. But that sequence of events is one of the dirtiest things I have ever seen in the NFL. 

 

[Mango]

25 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I've noticed that no-nonsense type of response twice now..  

 

Allen didn't even blink when asked about it.  Bernard did the same when asked about it on GMFB yesterday. 

 

The Bills are better out of the spotlight. It is also more fun to be a fan without the expectation. When you expect to be the best team on the planet on Sundays, but you play like the 4th best that day, you have these weird urge to criticize because you fell short. 

I expected a step back this season. I didn't expect the Jets game, I hated it. But it leveled my expectations for the year, at least out of the gate. I would rather be the 6th ranked team, play great ball in all three phases, and get hot come late December. Without checking with any historical records of preseason polls vs. results that's the way it feels like most teams win championships. (Outside of pundits always picking Brady/Mahomes every year no matter what).