Interesting ESPN article (re Allen): death of the deep ball

[TPS]

This article is not about Allen, but, as the quote from Mahomes shows below--it brings to focus what much of the discussion has been about this week--his maturity and decision-making...

 

Quote

 

The next season, Mahomes noticed defenses were starting to play him differently. If he was going to beat them, it wasn't going to be with go-balls to Tyreek Hill.

"We faced so many deep coverages where teams were taking away all our deep throws," Mahomes said of the 2021 season during a Super Bowl LV media session. "I had to learn when to just take what's underneath. That's something where I've kind of grown and matured. We'll call deep plays still all the time, but if defenses are going to play that deep, even though I want to in my heart of hearts to throw it downfield and make those big plays, I'll take the underneath stuff and find ways to move the ball down the field that way."

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by TPS

[QB Bills]

This is exactly the mental shift that Allen needs to undergo. Fortunately and unfortunately, with his arm talent, he can make any throw regardless of defense and for the most part he's right. But if he's off, as he was Monday night, that's what you get.

[Lost]

Last season when the topic also came up about Allen throwing too many deep balls, both him and Dorsey basically said, we're not changing.   In Josh's presser yesterday, while he once again stated he needs to be smarter with the football, he also said he's going to continue to trust his arm.   I don't really expect much change at this point. 

[Punching Bag]

9 minutes ago, Lost said:

Last season when the topic also came up about Allen throwing too many deep balls, both him and Dorsey basically said, we're not changing.   In Josh's presser yesterday, while he once again stated he needs to be smarter with the football, he also said he's going to continue to trust his arm.   I don't really expect much change at this point. 

 

Last season the excuse / reason was some balls were difficult to throw with his arm injury,

[Mr. WEO]

18 minutes ago, Lost said:

Last season when the topic also came up about Allen throwing too many deep balls, both him and Dorsey basically said, we're not changing.   In Josh's presser yesterday, while he once again stated he needs to be smarter with the football, he also said he's going to continue to trust his arm.   I don't really expect much change at this point. 

 

Allen threw 51 passes of 20+ yards out of 567 attempts.

 

This "Josh can't throw the short pass" take just won't die.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

This article is not about Allen, but, as the quote from Mahomes shows below--it brings to focus what much of the discussion has been about this week--his maturity and decision-making...

 

 

A great find Josh needs to realize defenses have him booked don’t let the safeties get beat deep and he will get frustrated and try to force it. Like Peyton told him it’s going to be boring football either you learn to adjust or your days in the nfl will be numbered for a guy who does 

[msw2112]

Nice post.  Extremely applicable to the current situation with Allen.

[GoBills808]

It's very similar situation to how the Chiefs were being played

 

The difference is going to be that Kelce and Reid provide a lot more answers underneath than Diggs 

[pennstate10]

The cover two can still get beat on a deep ball. 
 

By a speedy RB on a wheel route. Cool had a TD if Josh would have lifted that pass a touch more. 

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, QB Bills said:

This is exactly the mental shift that Allen needs to undergo. Fortunately and unfortunately, with his arm talent, he can make any throw regardless of defense and for the most part he's right. But if he's off, as he was Monday night, that's what you get.

I don't care how strong he thinks his arm is. There comes a time in an athletes life where you have to mature and be smart. He has all the athletic tools yet refuses to embrace the other stuff.

[DrDawkinstein]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's very similar situation to how the Chiefs were being played

 

The difference is going to be that Kelce and Reid provide a lot more answers underneath than Diggs *and Dorsey

 

It's not all on Diggs. As a matter of fact, I'd say it's way more on Dorsey to have the plays ready, much like Reid does.

 

Diggs and Kelce will do their job no matter what.

 

But which coach is putting his players in the best position to succeed?

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

It's not all on Diggs. As a matter of fact, I'd say it's way more on Dorsey to have the plays ready, much like Reid does.

 

Diggs and Kelce will do their job no matter what.

 

But which coach is putting his players in the best position to succeed?

I can reasonably expect Diggs to perform at a level comparable to Kelce

 

But I don't expect the same from Dorsey qua Reid which is why I omitted him and why it's likely we will struggle more than the Chiefs did

[Royale with Cheese]

30 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

The cover two can still get beat on a deep ball. 
 

By a speedy RB on a wheel route. Cool had a TD if Josh would have lifted that pass a touch more. 

 

If you have a WR combo where one runs a fly and the inside WR runs a post...the safety has to pick one.  

Lee Evans used to get beat cover 2 over the top with his speed.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

He had guys open underneath on everyone of those deep incomplete or intercepted passes. Cooks is going to be a huge weapon for us this year, he has better hands than some WR’s

 

[Dr.Sack]

Allen can still dominate if Kincaid & Knox get to work the middle of the field 10-15 yards past the line. 

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I can reasonably expect Diggs to perform at a level comparable to Kelce

 

But I don't expect the same from Dorsey qua Reid which is why I omitted him and why it's likely we will struggle more than the Chiefs did

 

And that's my point. We have a Kelce equivalent. We do not have anything close to a Reid equivalent. But we cant let Dorsey off the hook just because we know he is lesser-than.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And that's my point. We have a Kelce equivalent. We do not have anything close to a Reid equivalent. But we cant let Dorsey off the hook just because we know he is lesser-than.

There no hook imo

 

You give maybe the GOAT offensive coach in Reid Mahomes, a very good oline, Kelce and a bunch of meh and you get the Chiefs (excellent) offense

 

You give a good OC in Dorsey Allen, a bad oline, Diggs, and a bunch of meh and you get the Bills (very good) offense

 

I mean did you really expect them to walk all over the Jets defense, they were always going to struggle

[MJS]

It needs to become habitual for Allen, because when he feels the pressure and isn't processing things, he does not see the short stuff. He needs to make it a habit so that if he feels that way, he automatically looks for the check down or short stuff. That is why you have check downs, so you can get the ball out quickly when you are in trouble or if everything is covered.

 

He needs to not bail from the pocket so much, too. He did it on almost every pass play.

[The Wiz]

22 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Allen can still dominate if Kincaid & Knox get to work the middle of the field 10-15 yards past the line. 

Maybe they should start with 5-10 yards.

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Maybe they should start with 5-10 yards.

Two five-yard plays = first down. Josh Allen doesn't like that math.

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 hours ago, TPS said:

This article is not about Allen, but, as the quote from Mahomes shows below--it brings to focus what much of the discussion has been about this week--his maturity and decision-making...

 

 

This is exactly what I referred to in another post. Mahomes learned to take the 10-13 play drives. 

[Dr.Sack]

4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Maybe they should start with 5-10 yards.

Between the DL and LBs? 

[Haslett_Stomp]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

There no hook imo

 

You give maybe the GOAT offensive coach in Reid Mahomes, a very good oline, Kelce and a bunch of meh and you get the Chiefs (excellent) offense

 

You give a good OC in Dorsey Allen, a bad oline, Diggs, and a bunch of meh and you get the Bills (very good) offense

 

I mean did you really expect them to walk all over the Jets defense, they were always going to struggle

 

Reid is not the GOAT offensive coach without Mahomes.  Look at his prior record.  He had a reputation as a coach who choked in big games (sound familiar?).

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

It's very similar situation to how the Chiefs were being played

 

The difference is going to be that Kelce and Reid provide a lot more answers underneath than Diggs 

Kincaid can provide that if Dorsey decides to allow it

[jkeerie]

5 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

This is exactly what I referred to in another post. Mahomes learned to take the 10-13 play drives. 

Easy to do when you have Kelce.  Josh now has Kinkaid.  He needs to make the same adjustment.

[TPS]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

It's very similar situation to how the Chiefs were being played

 

The difference is going to be that Kelce and Reid provide a lot more answers underneath than Diggs 

From what I’ve read this week, it seems Dorsey has dialed enough up for Allen, he just hasn’t taken it. 

[boyst]

This means power runners, who can move down the middle of the line and attack the smaller DB's are going to continue to prized possessions.

 

Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn't develop these and all of the best athletes have been playing CB and WR for the last decade or more, with many beginning to become TE's who have the luxury of size, speed, and soft hands.

 

When the NFL can find athletic RB's, the pure freakish RBs, it is gonna be something. The lack of development of RBs trend has to buck. We will then go back to the 80's and 90's with the Ricky Waters's's's Thurman Thomas's, Emmett Smith's, Marcus Allen's, etc.

 

I keep hoping one of these Alabama guys - Najee Harris, or some other dude will be the answer. But so far the closest we have seen was unfortunately Breece Hall.

[Buffalo Junction]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

It needs to become habitual for Allen, because when he feels the pressure and isn't processing things, he does not see the short stuff. He needs to make it a habit so that if he feels that way, he automatically looks for the check down or short stuff. That is why you have check downs, so you can get the ball out quickly when you are in trouble or if everything is covered.

 

He needs to not bail from the pocket so much, too. He did it on almost every pass play.

It makes me wonder about the progression, reads, etc. It certainly seems as though the primary or secondary read a few years ago was often Beasley. The trust might not yet be there with Kincaid or any of the slot receivers, but it probably needs to develop quickly for this ship to turn around fast. 
 

Agree on the bailing. We’ll see if that changes against less dominant defensive fronts. I don’t have a lot of faith in Dawkins or Brown to hold off Crosby this week though. 

6 hours ago, MJS said:

It needs to become habitual for Allen, because when he feels the pressure and isn't processing things, he does not see the short stuff. He needs to make it a habit so that if he feels that way, he automatically looks for the check down or short stuff. That is why you have check downs, so you can get the ball out quickly when you are in trouble or if everything is covered.

 

He needs to not bail from the pocket so much, too. He did it on almost every pass play.

It makes me wonder about the progression, reads, etc. It certainly seems as though the primary or secondary read a few years ago was often Beasley. The trust might not yet be there with Kincaid or any of the slot receivers, but it probably needs to develop quickly for this ship to turn around fast. 
 

Agree on the bailing. We’ll see if that changes against less dominant defensive fronts. I don’t have a lot of faith in Dawkins or Brown to hold off Crosby this week though. 

[Solomon Grundy]

13 hours ago, TPS said:

This article is not about Allen, but, as the quote from Mahomes shows below--it brings to focus what much of the discussion has been about this week--his maturity and decision-making...

 

 

Learn from this Josh

[Thurman#1]

On 9/14/2023 at 9:40 PM, Lost said:

Last season when the topic also came up about Allen throwing too many deep balls, both him and Dorsey basically said, we're not changing.   In Josh's presser yesterday, while he once again stated he needs to be smarter with the football, he also said he's going to continue to trust his arm.   I don't really expect much change at this point. 

 

 

If I remember correctly their answers were a lot more complex and multi-faceted than "we're not changing."

 

He should continue to trust his arm. He just should make better decisions at a higher rate. He's doubtless aware of this.

[Brand J]

A player can never stop improving mentally, but we’re in Josh’s 6th year and still talking about issues you would expect from a first or second year QB. That’s alarming to me, especially when, years ago, he cited the Patriots 3 INT game as his wake up call and the impetus for why he has to change. I’m down on Allen right now, but as I said in another post, fully expect for him to turn things around. Possibly as soon as this week.

[Freddie's Dead]

On 9/14/2023 at 9:00 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Allen threw 51 passes of 20+ yards out of 567 attempts.

 

This "Josh can't throw the short pass" take just won't die.

 

There you go again, confusing us with facts.  Stop it.

[Heavy Kevi]

On 9/14/2023 at 7:56 AM, TPS said:

This article is not about Allen, but, as the quote from Mahomes shows below--it brings to focus what much of the discussion has been about this week--his maturity and decision-making...

 

 

 

Hopefully Josh sees this, and then is reminded of Mahomes mvp and SB ringS

 

The formula is there Josh, just follow the recipe.

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, NewEra said:

Kincaid can provide that if Dorsey decides to allow it

 

 

Four catches last week. Did I miss Dorsey trying to knock the ball out of his hands?

 

 

 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Four catches last week. Did I miss Dorsey trying to knock the ball out of his hands?

 

 

 

He also had just 4 targets last week.  Same as Cook. One more target than Harty.  
 

Did I miss Dorsey getting Kincaid involved in the second half of the game?  3 targets at halftime up 10.  1 target after the half, when we needed him.

 

it’s not all on Dorsey.  It’s on Josh too. It just didn’t seem like Dorsey made him the clear #2 option that he should be.  It’ll come.  If it doesn’t Dorsey will likely be looking for a new job next offseason

[JohnBonhamRocks]

The (perhaps encouraging) thing is, we’ve seen JA17 take the short stuff and pick apart defenses before, so (it may be a comfort to see that) he has done it before and with regularity. 
 

For example, last year’s opener, the first game of JA17’s with OC Ken Dorsey: 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/bills-short-passing-offense-results-in-a-new-high-completion-percentage-for-josh-allen

 

It’s just such a head scratcher why he last year was and still is now is failing to see wide open guys in the middle of the field also with regularity. I know concussion(s) is/are speculated. Perhaps he got used to the UCL injury play style. Personal life issues. DCs baiting him into misreading protection and coverage. Some combination of those. Not going to pretend like I know. 
 

But I imagine he is very frustrated right now and hope he can channel that into picking apart the Raiders. If by 4-5 yards at a time, then so be it. 

Edited September 15, 2023 by JohnBonhamRocks

[PBF81]

On 9/14/2023 at 9:00 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Allen threw 51 passes of 20+ yards out of 567 attempts.

 

This "Josh can't throw the short pass" take just won't die.

 

He can, the issue is that he sometimes, and often at inopportune moments in the game, opts for looking deep over simply taking the easy outlet for a reasonable gain and often a 1st-Down.  Against teams/D's like the Jets, you cannot afford to do that.  Against the Raiders on Sunday, as long as the D shows up, you can afford to do that in likelihood.  In the playoffs, obviously you cannot.  

 

And even if it's only two or three a game, if it stalls a drive then it's too many, particularly in a loss or close game.  

 

Allen is the least of this team's problems and he's been carrying the offense, and even the defense at times, throughout McD's tenure.  

 

This short pass thing isn't some kind of new found mystery.  The best QBs in the game in history were masters at this.  Brady feasted off of it.  It doesn't mean that they couldn't go deep, they simply understood that passing should be to any receiver anywhere that's open and stands to make a significant gain.  "Significant" can vary.  8 yards on a 3rd-and-12 is inadequate.  4 yards on a 3rd-and-2 is adequate.  

 

 

[PBF81]

16 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

It’s just such a head scratcher why he last year was and still is now is failing to see wide open guys in the middle of the field also with regularity.

 

He also did it in 2019 and at least somewhat in 2020.  It's never left him.  

 

The headscratcher part about it is twofold.  Given that the issue is simple to correct, as in it's not like getting a QB to alter his foot placement or throwing mechanics from what he's done for 10 years, there's the coaching side, and Allen's side.  

 

Is if fair to say that he's "not seeing wide open guys in the middle of the field," or the flats/wings, or is he ignoring them in favor of a bigger play?  There've also been plays when it's clear that he does see them, but goes deep anyway.  It seems that it's deliberate, making it even more correctible.  

 

But like I mentioned earlier, I've gotten so fed up with this for three seasons that I had determined to put together a running montage of it on the season.  I know absolutely nothing about coaching in the NFL, nada.  But that would be a very simple and effective training tool to demonstrate to Allen, what quite frankly is common sense and which anyone that's watched football for any number of years and paid attention, already knows. 

 

There's a very good reason why for decades they've called them high-percentage throws/plays.  

 

So the biggest elephant-on-the-kitchen-table question is, why hasn't McD in six seasons, preseasons, training camps, effectively addressed it?  

 

I have terminal difficulty believing that he has and that Allen's simply ignoring him.  And frankly, if that's the case, one of the two has to go and it's not going to be Allen.  

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by PBF81

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Watched a game last night where Addison scored from 60+ and Devonta Smith went 60+ as well. 

 

We just don't seem to have speed yet again this year. 

 

And please save it with the Deonte Harty talk. He's 5'6" and runs 4.4's.  

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

He can, the issue is that he sometimes, and often at inopportune moments in the game, opts for looking deep over simply taking the easy outlet for a reasonable gain and often a 1st-Down.  Against teams/D's like the Jets, you cannot afford to do that.  Against the Raiders on Sunday, as long as the D shows up, you can afford to do that in likelihood.  In the playoffs, obviously you cannot.  

 

And even if it's only two or three a game, if it stalls a drive then it's too many, particularly in a loss or close game.  

 

Allen is the least of this team's problems and he's been carrying the offense, and even the defense at times, throughout McD's tenure.  

 

This short pass thing isn't some kind of new found mystery.  The best QBs in the game in history were masters at this.  Brady feasted off of it.  It doesn't mean that they couldn't go deep, they simply understood that passing should be to any receiver anywhere that's open and stands to make a significant gain.  "Significant" can vary.  8 yards on a 3rd-and-12 is inadequate.  4 yards on a 3rd-and-2 is adequate.  

 

 

 

 

well...bad decisions are just that.  But this narrative that he abandoned or was too injured to go to the short game isn't true.