All GM's Make Mistakes

[ArtVandalay]

8 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

In 2020, the Eagles desperately needed WR help.  First round pick was Jalen Reagor.  Very next pick was Justin Jefferson.  Reagor is no longer with the Eagles.  Jefferson is one of the best two or three WR in the league.  Maybe the best.  Yet, Eagles are in NFC Championship a couple of years later.  

 

Beane's been far from perfect and we all know the list   trading Wyatt Teller, picking Ford over Metcalf and A.J. Brown, Basham instead of Humphrey, Bernard instead of Parham, hell even Oliver instead of Simmons.  Some of that is hindsight, some of it is not.  

 

Point is, none of those "mistakes" are fatal.  This is, however, an enormously consequential off-season for Beane and the team.  He needs to make rebuild of the offensive line number one priority (same as KC did after Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay), establish a legitimate running game that doesn't depend on Allen, somehow introduce flexibility into a defense that has grown way too stale and hope we can avoid serious injuries.  

 

Not saying it will happen but there is certainly hope that he can fix what is obviously broken.

He's hasn't been able to do it for any of the 6 years he's been here. What makes you think this year is any different?

 

At this point its evident he can't identify offensive line talent.

 

Imagine if we had a player committing the same egregious mistakes for 6 straight years and never being held accountable.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

8 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

In 2020, the Eagles desperately needed WR help.  First round pick was Jalen Reagor.  Very next pick was Justin Jefferson.  Reagor is no longer with the Eagles.  Jefferson is one of the best two or three WR in the league.  Maybe the best.  Yet, Eagles are in NFC Championship a couple of years later.  

 

Beane's been far from perfect and we all know the list   trading Wyatt Teller, picking Ford over Metcalf and A.J. Brown, Basham instead of Humphrey, Bernard instead of Parham, hell even Oliver instead of Simmons.  Some of that is hindsight, some of it is not.  

 

Point is, none of those "mistakes" are fatal.  This is, however, an enormously consequential off-season for Beane and the team.  He needs to make rebuild of the offensive line number one priority (same as KC did after Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay), establish a legitimate running game that doesn't depend on Allen, somehow introduce flexibility into a defense that has grown way too stale and hope we can avoid serious injuries.  

 

Not saying it will happen but there is certainly hope that he can fix what is obviously broken.

 

20M over the cap, It's going to be a hell of steep hill for this staff but like you've stated, it's their own doing.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

I was talking about the Chiefs o line.  The Bengals o line backups aren’t better than the Bill o line. 

this is a weird  straw man crusade you keep repeating.  It lacks any intellectual foundation. It’s absent of thought.  

It’s well thought out. I heard it right here.

[BillsVet]

All GMs make mistakes, but some make more and then get fired.  Others achieve moderate results and eventually get fired.  A select few, typically those who draft a true franchise QB, win championships and stay on.  

 

Then again, it takes ownership to be invested just enough.  The Pegula's have given McBeane everything they've asked for it appears...and at some point they'll tire of excuses and bad playoff results with a 258M investment on the payroll.  

 

 

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, cba fan said:

w Frazier philosophy on D Bills will never win a SB under him. You could not even see DB's in picture on Bengal pass plays.

 

I ran the numbers over the past four seasons for Frasier's Defense in the playoffs.  Here are the per-game averages over those 8 games: 
 

24 for 38 for 272 Yards, 1-3/4 TDs, 5/8 INT allowed 

28 carries for 132 Yards, 1 Rushing TD allowed 

389 Total Net Yards allowed  

25.5 Points Allowed (31  PPG allowed the last 5 games, so Frasier isn't learning anything)  

24 1st-Downs allowed 

2.75 Sacks 

1 Fumble Recovery every 4 games  

7 of 14 3rd-Down Conversions allowed 

60% (9 of 15 in all 8 games) 4th-Down Conversions allowed  

 

That's very bad.  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Beane is a great GM based on the Josh Allen pick alone. The way he had the foresight & ability (and balls) to maneuver his way into the top 10 to draft a project QB who likely be a first ballot HOFer when it’s all said and done is super impressive. It’s not an accidental pick that felt into his lap like Brady, this was a chess move acquiring picks a year in advance to get his guy. BB made the Bills contenders again after nearly 2 decades of failure. It’s not his fault Von Miller got inured and Frazier’s scheme is crap. I want to see what an aggressive & innovative coordinator can do w/ this defense. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

This team desperately needs another WR.

 

There is no size at WR and average speed.

 

 

[Nitro]

5 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This team desperately needs another WR.

 

There is no size at WR and average speed.

 

 

They lost Isaiah Hodgins who has size to keep Jake Kumerow a strictly special teamer.  Adding talent at WR is a given.  O line is average at best.

[Matt_In_NH]

Drafting becomes more important now than the last few years when they had more money to use in FA.   

[Andy1]

I’d like to see statistical ratings for GMs, like there is for players. 

[cba fan]

16 hours ago, Billznut said:

I’d agree but McD just doesn’t trust rookies at other positions as we’ve seen. Is he really going to trust 1-2 rookies protecting his QB?  One missed block could end our season. I think McD really will be hesitant to do it. And pretty much no chance they put two rookies on the line. One at most. 

current line misses blocks every game.

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Andy1 said:

I’d like to see statistical ratings for GMs, like there is for players. 

People have tried, but it’s extremely complicated and the results aren’t very convincing.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

18 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

All GM's Make Mistakes

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Nitro said:

They lost Isaiah Hodgins who has size to keep Jake Kumerow a strictly special teamer.  Adding talent at WR is a given.  O line is average at best.

Oline is currently 26th in the league they aren’t average they are horrible 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Nitro said:

They lost Isaiah Hodgins who has size to keep Jake Kumerow a strictly special teamer.  Adding talent at WR is a given.  O line is average at best.

Can this fanbase stop with Isaiah Hodgins? 

 

He is 6'4". 

 

But he was a 6th Rounder because he runs a 4.64 40. 

 

He is a 700-yards per season possession WR. 

 

I'm talking about another #1 WR. 

 

Diggs can't be trusted in these big Playoff games. He disappeared last year at Arrowhead, and he disappeared at the Bengals. 

 

 

[PBF81]

11 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Beane is a great GM based on the Josh Allen pick alone. The way he had the foresight & ability (and balls) to maneuver his way into the top 10 to draft a project QB who likely be a first ballot HOFer when it’s all said and done is super impressive. It’s not an accidental pick that felt into his lap like Brady, this was a chess move acquiring picks a year in advance to get his guy. BB made the Bills contenders again after nearly 2 decades of failure. It’s not his fault Von Miller got inured and Frazier’s scheme is crap. I want to see what an aggressive & innovative coordinator can do w/ this defense. 

 

Here's my response to that take, when they drafted Allen no one said a word about his ability to run.  All they talked about was his ability to make any pass. 

 

Point being, his running/scrambling is a HUGE part of his game.  Beane didn't forecast that, so let's not give him credit for it.  That part of it was luck for him, Beane that is.  And don't get it wrong, he'd still get credit for Allen's arm, but honestly, take away Allen's ability to extend plays, run, etc., and that's several fewer wins every season.   To be blunt, Allen's hardly the best pocket-passer in the league straight up.  And I love Allen, I wouldn't take anyone else.  He's very bright too and has every intangible that anyone could want.  

[Airseven]

...some more than others.

[Shortchaz]

1 minute ago, Airseven said:

...some more than others.

You’re telling bloody stories about me again 

[Jauronimo]

21 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

What would be a “fatal” mistake for Beane?

Starting a land war in Asia.

[The Jokeman]

Let's look at a AFC counter parts draft from 2020.

 

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaging about the same rushing yards as Devin Singletary but has missed 12 games the last two seasons. C

 

Willie Gay Jr. Became a starter mid way through his rookie season. Put up some good tackles numbers this year. B

 

Lucas Niang 9 offensive snaps since drafted. D-

 

L'Jarius Sneed starter and good not great #2 CB. B

 

Michael Danna lost starting job this season but did get a career 5 sacks.  C

 

Thakarius Keyes no longer a Chief F.

[T master]

On 1/29/2023 at 2:02 PM, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

It would easier to point out Beane's good moves than it would be to point out his multitude of mistakes. He's a joke. 

 

Holy Crap if this is the way you feel about Beane i'm surprised you haven't sliced your wrists prior to this given who was here prior to him Dam ...

[Albany,n.y.]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Here's my response to that take, when they drafted Allen no one said a word about his ability to run.  All they talked about was his ability to make any pass. 

 

Point being, his running/scrambling is a HUGE part of his game.  Beane didn't forecast that, so let's not give him credit for it.  That part of it was luck for him, Beane that is.  And don't get it wrong, he'd still get credit for Allen's arm, but honestly, take away Allen's ability to extend plays, run, etc., and that's several fewer wins every season.   To be blunt, Allen's hardly the best pocket-passer in the league straight up.  And I love Allen, I wouldn't take anyone else.  He's very bright too and has every intangible that anyone could want.  

The Bills spent hours watching tape of Allen's college career.  Of course they knew about his ability to run.  If the guys on the broadcast the day of the draft knew it, so did the Bills.  Go to 1:25 mark of the video where Mayock talks about his athleticism & says "quarterback counter, quarterback power, quarterback keep, they ran it all day long" 

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Albany,n.y.

[Donuts and Doritos]

Wait, Beane make changes to fix our problems, like at O-Line & OC, are you kidding, did you see his presser?

 

[ganesh]

If the OL gets fixed, then the run game (minus Allen) also gets fixed.

[JerseyBills]

A big part is that we've been picking 20+ picks later since 2019 

[Best Williams Available]

On 1/29/2023 at 3:07 PM, Eastport bills said:

Beane is a competent GM. His positives of moving up to draft Josh and trading for Diggs is the reason we are winning division titles. The problem is the roster is not improving year by year . The same can be said for the coaching staff. I still believe he can get it done but now with limited cap space, the pressure is ramped up to improve this team. These GMs can go from geniuses to the hot seat in a hurry.

Good point about the roster not improving. Guys that fill gaps either aren’t up to snuff or someone else flat out regresses leaving another hole (S Brown, G Davis, Epenesa, etc). It’s like trying to bail out a boat taking on water for Beane. He’s just staying afloat.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

Wait, Beane make changes to fix our problems, like at O-Line & OC, are you kidding, did you see his presser?

 

I’m not saying that he’s going to make changes, but you can’t base that off of that presser Brandon is never going to tip his hands like that

[st pete gogolak]

7 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Let's look at a AFC counter parts draft from 2020.

 

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaging about the same rushing yards as Devin Singletary but has missed 12 games the last two seasons. C

 

Willie Gay Jr. Became a starter mid way through his rookie season. Put up some good tackles numbers this year. B

 

Lucas Niang 9 offensive snaps since drafted. D-

 

L'Jarius Sneed starter and good not great #2 CB. B

 

Michael Danna lost starting job this season but did get a career 5 sacks.  C

 

Thakarius Keyes no longer a Chief F.

Now do their 2021 and 2022 drafts.

[Donuts and Doritos]

27 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m not saying that he’s going to make changes, but you can’t base that off of that presser Brandon is never going to tip his hands like that

 

While I'd generally agree GMs are cagy, he really wasn't. He tipped his hand that Dorsey will be back & was pretty strident in his defense of Spencer Brown & Gabe Davis. He didn't need to be soo committal on any of them, but he chose to. Not expecting a lot, certainly seems at this point he's bringing Dorsey back like he said. So I don't see next season being much different.

[Eastport bills]

32 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said:

Good point about the roster not improving. Guys that fill gaps either aren’t up to snuff or someone else flat out regresses leaving another hole (S Brown, G Davis, Epenesa, etc). It’s like trying to bail out a boat taking on water for Beane. He’s just staying afloat.

Now is the problem the talent evaluation or the position group coaches. I thought Davis and Brown had real potential to take a big step forward, instead they regressed. Davis was great in the Miami game. Dorsey and the receivers coach whiffed on this kid this season. Same with Brown, he’s a good run blocker but a turnstile in protection .If Beane and Sean are going to plug-in bargain basement role players with the cap restrictions, they better have above average coaches. Look at  what Cinn. did after Anarumo and the OC came in. Their team is super physical and are balanced on offense. That’s what we need.

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Now is the problem the talent evaluation or the position group coaches. I thought Davis and Brown had real potential to take a big step forward, instead they regressed. Davis was great in the Miami game. Dorsey and the receivers coach whiffed on this kid this season. Same with Brown, he’s a good run blocker but a turnstile in protection .If Beane and Sean are going to plug-in bargain basement role players with the cap restrictions, they better have above average coaches. Look at  what Cinn. did after Anarumo and the OC came in. Their team is super physical and are balanced on offense. That’s what we need.

There are certainly catches I want Gabe to make. But he also has the most low percentage play targets in the league. So of course his catch % is low. 
 

Also, the top 10 teams in terms of craps includes something like 8/10 top QB’s. The difference between being Buffalo and KC in drops is 3 and 6 to Cincinnati. That’s one less drop every 4 games. 

[Best Williams Available]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

There are certainly catches I want Gabe to make. But he also has the most low percentage play targets in the league. So of course his catch % is low. 
 

Also, the top 10 teams in terms of craps includes something like 8/10 top QB’s. The difference between being Buffalo and KC in drops is 3 and 6 to Cincinnati. That’s one less drop every 4 games. 

Ok why so many low % play targets? Is it because his route tree is limited and he can pretty much only run straight? If so, that’s on Gabe, and coaches that put him out there as a 3 masquerading as a 2.

[Best Williams Available]

15 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Now is the problem the talent evaluation or the position group coaches. I thought Davis and Brown had real potential to take a big step forward, instead they regressed. Davis was great in the Miami game. Dorsey and the receivers coach whiffed on this kid this season. Same with Brown, he’s a good run blocker but a turnstile in protection .If Beane and Sean are going to plug-in bargain basement role players with the cap restrictions, they better have above average coaches. Look at  what Cinn. did after Anarumo and the OC came in. Their team is super physical and are balanced on offense. That’s what we need.

The whole OL regressed statistically this year too. Players don’t just get worse I think.

There are fundamental gaps in coaching philosophies and strengths on this team. The same way a coach has to adapt a game plan to fit the strengths of their players, an organization has to assemble coaches with either homogenous concepts of O/D or coaches that are adaptable to fit their styles to an overarching strategy. I think we have a bunch of square pegs in round holes going on right now.

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said:

Ok why so many low % play targets? Is it because his route tree is limited and he can pretty much only run straight? If so, that’s on Gabe, and coaches that put him out there as a 3 masquerading as a 2.

Allen has the largest depth of target in the league. The problem with targeting anything other than the deep route falls on both Allen and Dorsey. The All 22’s have been really frustrating this year.  
 

Part of the Allen allure is the big play. Part of the Allen frustration is an unwillingness to take what the defense gives him. So many of Allen’s scrambles this year have been because he keeps his eyes down field to try and take a deep shot, not because nobody is open. 
 

Also Davis isn’t a 3. He’s an outside receiver. You wouldn’t move him inside in any meaningful way. 

[Best Williams Available]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

Allen has the largest depth of target in the league. The problem with targeting anything other than the deep route falls on both Allen and Dorsey. The All 22’s have been really frustrating this year.  
 

Part of the Allen allure is the big play. Part of the Allen frustration is an unwillingness to take what the defense gives him. So many of Allen’s scrambles this year have been because he keeps his eyes down field to try and take a deep shot, not because nobody is open. 
 

Also Davis isn’t a 3. He’s an outside receiver. You wouldn’t move him inside in any meaningful way. 

Right I guess I mean 3rd best WR not necessarily inside/out. In some ways having Davis out there may exacerbate Allen’s bad habits, and Dorsey doesn’t seem willing to curb them. A solid reliable slot guy may be all he needs to get back on track.

[Eastport bills]

11 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said:

The whole OL regressed statistically this year too. Players don’t just get worse I think.

There are fundamental gaps in coaching philosophies and strengths on this team. The same way a coach has to adapt a game plan to fit the strengths of their players, an organization has to assemble coaches with either homogenous concepts of O/D or coaches that are adaptable to fit their styles to an overarching strategy. I think we have a bunch of square pegs in round holes going on right now.

So you bring in a great coach like Dabol and he gets poached, leaving a good QB coach that has a learning curve calling plays and coaching physicality. Frazier’s defensive strategy doesn’t work here or anywhere he’s been. 

[Since1981]

Our good coach was taken, nobody wants anything to do with this crew. That is a crisp measuring stick. 

draft hopefulness = drought years

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

The Bills spent hours watching tape of Allen's college career.  Of course they knew about his ability to run.  If the guys on the broadcast the day of the draft knew it, so did the Bills.  Go to 1:25 mark of the video where Mayock talks about his athleticism & says "quarterback counter, quarterback power, quarterback keep, they ran it all day long" 

 

 

I didn't hear one word ever from Beane about Allen's rushing ability.  

 

But you're overlooking the point here, sure, Allen ran some at Wyoming, but it wasn't to the extent that he has here.  

[Best Williams Available]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

So you bring in a great coach like Dabol and he gets poached, leaving a good QB coach that has a learning curve calling plays and coaching physicality. Frazier’s defensive strategy doesn’t work here or anywhere he’s been. 

We here at TBD might not know anything because I recall last year people screaming the same things about Daboll that they’re saying about Dorsey. Statistically nearly mirror images on O both years. Either Daboll was a gem and we’re idiots or Dorsey is pretty good already and we expected too much too soon. Or they’re both average. I really don’t know.

 

I’m no fan of Frazier but I do think if the DL gets the intended pressure his D will work fine. See first 4 games or so. Problem is either DL players aren’t good/undersized or not being coached properly (asked to do things they can’t). 

[Billl]

On 1/29/2023 at 6:01 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

People didn't want to hear it at the time but Beane was not a proven personnel man when the Bills hired him...........he was an "executive" GM.........which is what the rudderless Pegula-run Bills needed at the time.

 

His first 10 months or so on the job were actually horrific personnel-wise..........all while he was being fluffed by Bills fans as some kind of savior because he was willing to get rid of players that other people selected.

 

Then he selected Josh Allen.

 

That has bought him another 5 years of mostly bad UFA decisions and decent overall drafts but with flawed drafting strategy in rounds 2-3.

 

Now it's time for him to take those years of experience and raise his game...........like Howie Roseman did post-Chip Kelly.

 

As long as we’re talking about things people don’t want to hear, Whaley was WAY more responsible for the recent run of success than he’s given credit for, arguably more than Beane.  On his way out the door, he drafted White and Milano while stacking up the picks that allowed Beane to trade up for Allen.  Yes, Beane chose correctly and deserves credit for that, but really his success boiled down to choosing Allen over Rosen.  Darnold and Mayfield were off the board.  
 

Had the Browns or Jets taken Allen, which easily could have happened given the fact that he was in the discussion, Beane would be long gone by now.  He’s had 4 drafts in which to pick players without the benefit of extra first round picks, and he’s come up mostly empty.