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We're onto Miami(Miami's headed to Buffalo)...opening line BUF -10! Game at 1:05 PM SUN 1/15


Big Turk

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We focus on Hill and Waddle, but Mostert ran all over our defense last time we met.

 

That guy is a load - DL is going to need to wear their big boy pants.

 

Less worried about our offense. As long as we keep the balance we have running Motor and Cook, Allen will hit some deep ones.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Has to be Hyde related.. my guess.

 

Von Miller obviously isn't coming back.  Nobody would get that hype over Jamison Crowder being activated.  The way it's worded, with the emoji's used, doesn't scream anything Hamlin related. 



Agreed I think it’s about Hyde practicing 

 

Lines up with Hyde’s comments about hoping to get good news in the next few days.  

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8 minutes ago, WideNine said:

We focus on Hill and Waddle, but Mostert ran all over our defense last time we met.

 

That guy is a load - DL is going to need to wear their big boy pants.

 

Less worried about our offense. As long as we keep the balance we have running Motor and Cook, Allen will hit some deep ones.

 

 

 

 

Mostert does have a broken hand so its not confirmed he will be playing.

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Just now, jletha said:

Mostert does have a broken hand so its not confirmed he will be playing.

 

 

Yeah, agreed...Also, I never want to hope anyone is out and I won't here this instance.  If he has the minor surgery and can wear a club on his hand then God bless him.  It's a big deal to play in the playoffs.  It's what these guys work to achieve.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Putting $20 on Miami +10.5 yields you $200?

 

Mood What GIF by NBC


yes, but you have to start with $180 in your pocket. lol

 

I typically like to money line against the bills in big games but I think I’m gonna stay away from this one. If tua doesn’t play I just can’t see the bills losing. Money line is currently about +400 I think. $20 bet would win you’ $80. Roughly.

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41 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

The current odds on the money line (team wins with no points needed) is Dolphins +425.  So if someone bets $20 they get back $105. 

Yeah….$100 less than what dude said…. 
 

not to mention that he said with the points. $20 with the points will earn you 18.18+ your money back. 

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5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


yes, but you have to start with $180 in your pocket. lol

 

I typically like to money line against the bills in big games but I think I’m gonna stay away from this one. If tua doesn’t play I just can’t see the bills losing. Money line is currently about +400 I think. $20 bet would win you’ $80. Roughly.

It’s +475 (-11) on both of my apps.  $20 will get you $95+ your 20 back 

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5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It’s +475 (-11) on both of my apps.  $20 will get you $95+ your 20 back 

 

 

Don't bring your gambling voodoo here, NewEra!  Leave all that nonsense in the gutters where it belongs with the other heathens!

 

 

 

...buuuuuuut just to be clear...so you're telling me, even though I am a dyed in the wool Bills fan, just a little measly little $20 drop in the bucket bet on the Phins could get me $95?!

 

👀

 

Go Bills?

 

 

 

 

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Man you are overrating all those WR's.

 

TY Hilton has 7 catches this year in 4 games.  

Kadarius Toney has 14 catches in 7 games with the Chiefs.  16 catches in 9 games including the Giants.  

 

If the Bills had traded/signed for Hilton and Toney and they put up those stats with us, would you be criticizing the Bills?  You most definitely would have.

Those stats are still better than Beasley and Brown stats. Also, you can't say with any certainty that they wouldn't have better stats. I'm not overeating them at all. I think most would agree TY is better than Brown and Toney is better than Beasley. That's all I was trying to say. 

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13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


yes, but you have to start with $180 in your pocket. lol

 

I typically like to money line against the bills in big games but I think I’m gonna stay away from this one. If tua doesn’t play I just can’t see the bills losing. Money line is currently about +400 I think. $20 bet would win you’ $80. Roughly.

The only thing I was getting at was:  t

 

The money line is currently +475 on most sites.

 

why ML against the Bills in the playoffs?  Just strange to me.  I sometimes bet against the Bills in regular season, but the playoffs is just creating some bad karma.  Different strokes for different folks I guess. 

5 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Don't bring your gambling voodoo here, NewEra!  Leave all that nonsense in the gutters where it belongs with the other heathens!

 

 

 

...buuuuuuut just to be clear...so you're telling me, even though I am a dyed in the wool Bills fan, just a little measly little $20 drop in the bucket bet on the Phins could get me $95?!

 

👀

 

Go Bills?

 

 

 

 

Hmmmmmhhhhhmmmmm

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43 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:



Agreed I think it’s about Hyde practicing 

 

Lines up with Hyde’s comments about hoping to get good news in the next few days.  

Literally two weeks ago to the day a BN article had quotes from Hyde saying something along the lines of "We will see what they say in two weeks"

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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

LOL as opposed to an insignificant break of his thumb

 

Well there are different types apparently and I read in a different quote that it's the type of break that usually requires a player to miss several games because they cannot grip a ball properly or switch hands. And I would imagine the first time someone chops at the ball and gets his thumb that ball is coming out due to severe pain.

Edited by Big Turk
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30 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Those stats are still better than Beasley and Brown stats. Also, you can't say with any certainty that they wouldn't have better stats. I'm not overeating them at all. I think most would agree TY is better than Brown and Toney is better than Beasley. That's all I was trying to say. 

 

The difference between all those WR's is very, very nil and they are all very unproductive.  

 

So Toney can't get production from Patrick Mahomes but would for Allen?

 

You're not overreacting to them?  Answer this question.  If the Bills had given up a 3rd round pick for Toney and in 7 games with us he catches 14 balls and 1 TD....how would you feel about the trade?

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28 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Those stats are still better than Beasley and Brown stats. Also, you can't say with any certainty that they wouldn't have better stats. I'm not overeating them at all. I think most would agree TY is better than Brown and Toney is better than Beasley. That's all I was trying to say. 

 

Stats can be misleading, and are dependent on a number of factors.  Scheme and opportunity are large among them.

 

Does anyone remember Robert Foster during Josh Allen's rookie year?  Over 500 yards and 3 touchdowns.  By the end of the season, he was the #1 target in our offense.  A year later we added John Brown and Cole Beasley.  The next we added Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.  And just like that, he wasn't even good enough to make the roster.  What you are seeing with Isaiah Hodgins is Foster 2.0.  A guy who developed a strong connection with the QB, and is taking advantage of targets on an offense with no other options.  He had three seasons to break into our lineup from the practice squad, and just couldn't do it.

 

There was a time TY Hilton was a better NFL receiver than Brown.  I'm not sure the difference is that significant today, and Brown has the advantage due to system knowledge and rapport with our QB.  If you swap these guys, I highly doubt Hilton would have more than 2 deep targets with the Bills (just like we've gotten out of Brown).

 

It's pointless to compare Kadarius Toney and Beasley.  First, because Toney cost a 3rd Round Pick earlier in the season (before the Bills were really looking to add another WR).  Beasley was a late-season free agent addition that cost us nothing.  Second, they don't really play the same position.  The Bills were looking for a reliable slot receiver, way more than an outside guy.  Despite his struggles, Toney wasn't going to displace Gabe Davis in our lineup.

 

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On 1/8/2023 at 1:12 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

We might be in trouble if he does. Easy win if he does not. 

 I totally disagree.  It’s irrelevant who plays at QB for Miami.  Besides the fact that there are no “easy wins” in the NFL.  

 

Nonetheless, the Bills are going to crush them.  

 

 

If I were a betting man, I’d bet on the Bills covering the 10 point spread.  This game could get very ugly for Miami.

 

 

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I think the Giants staff told the Bills staff don’t waste your time with Toney. He’s not a process guy and not worth bringing in. If they thought he could help the Bills they gladly would have traded him to the Bills. I almost think they sent him to the Chiefs to blow up KC with his douchbag attitude 

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7 minutes ago, Paul Costa said:

I think the Giants staff told the Bills staff don’t waste your time with Toney. He’s not a process guy and not worth bringing in. If they thought he could help the Bills they gladly would have traded him to the Bills. I almost think they sent him to the Chiefs to blow up KC with his douchbag attitude 

Meanwhile, they told Chiefs he's a questionable character and Andy said "Well in that case sign me up!"

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1 hour ago, jletha said:

Mostert does have a broken hand so its not confirmed he will be playing.

 

 

Thanks for the update.

 

Not wishing injury on any player, but i have watched some of their other games and watched him drag guys downfield from other teams.

 

So not just ragging on our defense.

I would rather he not be in the lineup.

 

Strong dude who is hard to bring down. 

 

 

 

 

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WOWY — With Or Without You. 
From The Ringer, on Miami and Tua:

 

“Miami’s only win in a game without him came against Joe Flacco and the Jets in Week 18. Tagovailoa also finished the season third in EPA per dropback (0.18), behind Mahomes and Allen; backups Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson averaged minus-0.03 and minus-0.27 EPA per dropback, respectively.”

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/1/10/23547484/nfl-power-rankings-wild-card-playoffs-eagles-bills-chiefs-bengals


In a futile attempt to prevent “Tua is garbage” responses: No, he is not Josh Allen. We all know that. 
 

But he is essential to this Dolphins offense. Teddy Bridgewater is a better than average backup, but they’ve been terrible with him. Skyler Thompson actually is replacement level garbage. If Tua is in there (and stays in there) and doesn’t show any immediate ill effects of the latest concussion, this will be a game. If he’s out, it’s a blowout. 

Edited by The Frankish Reich
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1 hour ago, GolfandBills said:

He has a 6-9 month recovery before he can even be cleared for contact lol.  He’s not coming back 

He had a herniated disc in his neck?  There’s enormous variability in how long recovery could take with or without surgery.  From life experience (obviously I’m not a professional football player lol) 6-9 months sounds outrageously overly cautious if you’re strictly accounting for physical healing.  The physical recovery only takes about 2-3 months.  
 

could be mental things at work for why it usually takes players longer which are entirely on him.  I don’t think he’d be working out at practice if he didn’t see it as at all possible 

 

 

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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10 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Why are people so concerned about practice reps lol it’s the playoffs. The guys been a starter for like 4 years now. It’s not a 45 year old weekend warrior on a golf course for the first time in 9 months. What do you really think these guys need at this stage outside of gameplay installs? The sewn in starting QBs in the league could not touch a ball all week and be fine on game day. It’s like the 3rd time I have seen a practice rep question about Tua. It’d be a concern if it was like a PS guy that hasn’t ever started before or a long term backup but for a legitimate starting QB in the league it’s nothing to not practice

how many teams look rusty coming out of the bye in reg season, or titans last year div round? now add a concussion, and multiply time missed

 

4 hours ago, Mark92 said:

Most lines are staying at -10.5 which is pretty high for the way the 2 regular season games went.  The insiders definitely have an opinion on Tua's availability.  If I was a dolphins fan I would lay $20 on the -10.5.  Only out $20 if the bills as expect win this game but if the dolphins somehow win then your team won a playoff game and you have $200 in your pocket.  

Where are you getting $200 on $20? It would be lose $20, or make $20

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