#1 Seed Will Be HUGE This Year

[Watkins101]

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us)

 

That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year.

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA

 

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t the 1 seed play the lowest seeded remaining team? So couldn’t it also be the 6 or 7 if they get the upset?

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I think the Jets are toast. Yesterday's loss really hurt them. Mike White is still not cleared to play. They also have a short week as they play the Jags this Thursday. Wilson is getting killed here with the NY media and fanbase today. They most likely have to win out to have any shot and does anyone think they can do that with Wilson. I think the Jags beat them this week.

Jets chances are now in the 25% range to get in. I agree they are likely toast at this point. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

41 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

Yeah, but when teams like the Steelers get in last year it diminishes the product of playoff football.

 

I'd rather have an outlier year where a 10 win team is left out than a year where a team under 500 gets on.

 

Just my opinion though.

It doesn’t diminish anything. They were 9-7-1. They deserved to be in based on record. They had to play KC in the wildcard. Average teams will make the playoffs no matter what. Can’t do anything about it.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Jets chances are now in the 25% range to get in. I agree they are likely toast at this point. 

Jets desperately need Quinnen back if that want a chance to beat Jax on Thursday. 
 

Sneaky good game with the storylines and playoff implications.  

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, HopelessNJBuffaloFan said:

Buffalo needs to beat the Bears. Do NOT get anymore injuries. Get the walking or crawling wounded healthy before we play Cincy!!!! If we go into Cincy playing like we did against the Fins, it is going to be a serious fight to win that game. 

It’s going to be a serious fight to win all our remaining games, regardless of the #1 seeding. 

[T master]

When was the last time the Bills hosted the AFC Championship game at the Ralph ? I know it had to be in the 90's but i'm old & my mind plays tricks on me (i might misremember) so do my friends & y'all aren't my friends so don't play tricks its not good for old people 😩😂 

[Donuts and Doritos]

24 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t the 1 seed play the lowest seeded remaining team? So couldn’t it also be the 6 or 7 if they get the upset?

 

 

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

You’re assuming the Phins or Chargers don’t upset the Chiefs or Bengals.  If we’re the 1 seed, we will play the lowest seed left after the 1st round.  Lots of different scenarios, but there’s no debating that it would be clutch to get that first round bye.

 

Yes it does assume that. But as the 2 or 3 your almost guaranteed playing 2 of: (Phins, Chargers, Bengals, KC). Possibly even 3 (Phins, Bengals, KC back to back to back would be brutal). Higher probability of only playing 1 of those as the 1 seed. It's the best chance to set up the easiest path forward matchup wise. 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Donuts and Doritos

[Southern_Bills]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It doesn’t diminish anything. They were 9-7-1. They deserved to be in based on record. They had to play KC in the wildcard. Average teams will make the playoffs no matter what. Can’t do anything about it.

 

We will have to agree to disagree, because increasing the size of the playoffs will increase the chance of average teams getting in, staying put or decreasing the size of the playoffs will decrease that chance. Simple math, and Pittsburghs late season collapse was well worthy of missing the playoffs. 

 

3 out of 4 #7 seeds have been beaten by double digits (Indianapolis vs Buffalo being the outlier) so far, which isn't common in the NFL. I would say having an #8 seed would only make this stat worse, if that's possible. 

 

I also like the increased reward for the #1 seed, whoever is #1 does deserve extra.

[Mr Info]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And last year Tenn had the bye & lost to Cincy & GB to SF.  

 

That bye week sometimes creates issues.

To follow up on this, it certainly seems a bye would be beneficial. 
 

However, the last 2 SB winners, Rams & Bucs, started as Wild Card teams.

[CoffeeDrip]

I was so invested in the Texans pulling it off in OT yesterday. Looked like they were going to but of course KC got lucky. 🙄 Some breathing room would have been nice, I’m worried about the Cincinnati game. And neither Chicago nor NE will go down easy.

[Airseven]

Indeed.

[Awwufelloff]

It's equally important every season lol. 

[FilthyBeast]

Agree but deep down still feel that the Bills will be looking back at the Vikings/Jets games and know that's what cost them the #1 seed in the end.

 

Because even with just 2 losses right now we'd still have a cushion for the Bengals game and it wouldn't matter what happens in that one.

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios.

With each passing week, it's becoming very clear.  Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else.  Even more than compared to previous seasons.

 

In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore.  We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out.  The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field.  The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again.  The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams.

 

Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round.  In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals.  The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

 

It really doesn’t matter this year because every team that makes the playoffs is going to be tough.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

54 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

We will have to agree to disagree, because increasing the size of the playoffs will increase the chance of average teams getting in, staying put or decreasing the size of the playoffs will decrease that chance. Simple math, and Pittsburghs late season collapse was well worthy of missing the playoffs. 

 

3 out of 4 #7 seeds have been beaten by double digits (Indianapolis vs Buffalo being the outlier) so far, which isn't common in the NFL. I would say having an #8 seed would only make this stat worse, if that's possible. 

 

I also like the increased reward for the #1 seed, whoever is #1 does deserve extra.

There is very little difference between the 7 and 8 seed teams in most seasons. You reference the Steelers last year. The 8-10 seeds were all better football teams.

 

Allowing 8 teams will only increase the excitement. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Georgia Bill]

Like most, I'm most concerned about the Bengals game.  Win that and win out, get the #1 seed and we are in prime position.  Even with that, we'd likely have to beat either KC or Cinci for the second time this season (tough to do) - but we know that and of course we all prefer our chances at home. 

 

If we lose to Cinci we MIGHT still end up with 2nd seed (If Baltimore beats them on the final weekend).  But if we lose to Cinci and they beat Baltimore (and win out), then by virtue of same record as us but owning the head to head - they get the 2nd seed, we fall to 3rd, and our second playoff game (assuming we win our first) could end up being at Cinci. 

 

That to me is the ultimate tough road to the Super Bowl:  3rd seed and 1st round we beat somebody at home, 2nd round have to beat Cinci in Cinci, then AFC championship we have to beat KC in KC.  

[Chandler#81]

Yeah, BUT…

 

Last years’ #1 seeds looked like dog crap after a bye and were unceremoniously booted out of the tournament in their 1st game.

 

juss sayin ‘

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios.

With each passing week, it's becoming very clear.  Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else.  Even more than compared to previous seasons.

 

In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore.  We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out.  The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field.  The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again.  The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams.

 

Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round.  In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals.  The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

 

 

 

While this years team is better in many ways than last year.......I don't think the Bills have the offensive skill OR the defensive playmaking ability to beat TWO highly skilled offenses on the road to reach the SB this season.   Last year they had enough juice,  on offense at least,  to do that.

 

They badly need the #1 seed.......or at least the #2..........and they could lose both simply by not winning in Cinci.    The last 3 are must wins, IMO.    This is the playoffs already, IMO.

 

 

 

[BillsfaninSB]

14 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Yeah, BUT…

 

Last years’ #1 seeds looked like dog crap after a bye and were unceremoniously booted out of the tournament in their 1st game.

 

juss sayin ‘

The year before the Bucs won the SB without a single home game other than the SB. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

Jets chances are now in the 25% range to get in. I agree they are likely toast at this point. 

It’s lookin like the jags could bump out the titans too 

[BillsFanSD]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not to be a total contrarian but It’s a huge assumption to say the Titans or Jaguars are going to win their first round game just because it’s at home. Both of those teams will finish barely over .500.

Agreed.  I like the Dolphins, Chargers, and/or Ravens over either of these teams even with HFA.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, T master said:

When was the last time the Bills hosted the AFC Championship game at the Ralph ? I know it had to be in the 90's but i'm old & my mind plays tricks on me (i might misremember) so do my friends & y'all aren't my friends so don't play tricks its not good for old people 😩😂 

It was January of ‘94 vs … KC Chiefs. Joe Montana and Marcus Allen. Montana was knocked out in first half . Mike Ditka called the Bills “ boring” in the previous weeks postgame show and really heard it from the Buffalo fans . Good times 

[CSBill]

All things considered, I still would prefer the #1 spot. 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Mr Info said:

To follow up on this, it certainly seems a bye would be beneficial. 
 

However, the last 2 SB winners, Rams & Bucs, started as Wild Card teams.

Rams won the division 2021.

15 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

It was January of ‘94 vs … KC Chiefs. Joe Montana and Marcus Allen. Montana was knocked out in first half . Mike Ditka called the Bills “ boring” in the previous weeks postgame show and really heard it from the Buffalo fans . Good times 

Was there and wasn't close.  Montana was outplayed by his back-up.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199401230buf.htm

[Mr Info]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Rams won the division 2021.

Rams did not get a bye and beat Cards in Wild Card game. 
Your point questioning the advantage of a bye for the Titans last year is valid as SB champs the past two years both played in wild card games with no byes.

[Billsfan1972]

22 minutes ago, Mr Info said:

Rams did not get a bye and beat Cards in Wild Card game. 
Your point questioning the advantage of a bye for the Titans last year is valid as SB champs the past two years both played in wild card games with no byes.

But the last two years were the first with 7 playoff teams.  I was looking at road teams.

 

At least in 2020 KC made the SB as the #1 seed.

 

GB both years hated playing in the cold.😉  

[LabattBlue]

The track record of teams succeeding in the playoffs despite not having the #1 seed is irrelevant.  Every team in playoff contention would love the #1 seed…no doubt about it. 

[Georgia Bill]

9 hours ago, Georgia Bill said:

That to me is the ultimate tough road to the Super Bowl:  3rd seed and 1st round we beat somebody at home, 2nd round have to beat Cinci in Cinci, then AFC championship we have to beat KC in KC.  

Quoting myself to make an additional point:   I think Cinci understands the same thing.  If they are 3rd seed, likely they'd have to win 1st round at home, 2nd round beat the Chiefs in KC, and then AFC championship have to beat the Bills in Buffalo.   They are going to be VERY motivated to avoid that scenario.

 

I don't see any realistic scenarios where the Chiefs could end at number 3 and have to go on the road to beat both the Bills and the Bengals- which kind of sucks...

Edited December 20, 2022 by Georgia Bill
typo

[What a Tuel]

18 minutes ago, Georgia Bill said:

Quoting myself to make an additional point:   I think Cinci understands the same thing.  If they are 3rd seed, likely they'd have to win 1st round at home, 2nd round beat the Chiefs in KC, and then AFC championship have to beat the Bills in Buffalo.   They are going to be VERY motivated to avoid that scenario.

 

I don't see any realistic scenarios where the Chiefs could end at number 3 and have to go on the road to beat both the Bills and the Chiefs- which kind of sucks...

 

30-24 @ Texans OT

34-28 @ Broncos

24-27 @ Bengals

26-10 vs Rams

30-27 @ Chargers

 

I get they are still winning (besides the Bengals game) but this idea that they are some unstoppable force is getting out of hand. Those are some sub par teams and the Bills have wins much like this (but against better teams) where the fans are asking "whats wrong?"

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by What a Tuel

[Taro Nimbus]

Woahhhhh..... didn't know that!

[Dan]

In my mind, getting the #1 seed guarantees us one game closer to the Super Bowl, which is good!   I agree the bye week doesn’t always help, but there is a mental aspect to consider as well.  You get a break to get healthy, but for this team, it would have to be a relief to know you don’t have to go back to Arrowhead for a 3rd consecutive post season!  

[NoHuddleKelly12]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

It was January of ‘94 vs … KC Chiefs. Joe Montana and Marcus Allen. Montana was knocked out in first half . Mike Ditka called the Bills “ boring” in the previous weeks postgame show and really heard it from the Buffalo fans . Good times 

Somehow it would be fitting if the next time we host the AFCCG it's the Chiefs again also. Then give me the Cowboys in a revenge Super Bowl win, and all curses will have been lifted!   

[John from Riverside]

Any rest that Josh Allen could get for that elbow would be a good thing

[SydneyBillsFan]

That Cincy game will be bigger than Ben Hur.

 

We could easily slip down to the 3 seed if we lose that one.

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Somehow it would be fitting if the next time we host the AFCCG it's the Chiefs again also. Then give me the Cowboys in a revenge Super Bowl win, and all curses will have been lifted!   

 

We could finally get the Chris Berman bowl...BUF vs SF

[HaldimandBills]

# 1 Seed will matter for three reasons in my opinion. 

 

1. The obvious which is a bye week and an extra week to get healthy. 

 

2. Avoiding the Chiefs and Bengals in Round 2. 

 

3. That 2nd seed is going to end up playing either Miami or the Jets. The last two teams id want to face in Round 1. The Jets have the best defense in the AFC and can cause problems for any offense. The Dolphins can catch lightning in a bottle and take off at any point and have a dline that can get after the QB. Neither team has the horses to make a Superbowl run, but both sure as heck can steal a game vs. anyone in the AFC.

[TheWei44]

7 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

# 1 Seed will matter for three reasons in my opinion. 

 

1. The obvious which is a bye week and an extra week to get healthy. 

 

2. Avoiding the Chiefs and Bengals in Round 2. 

 

3. That 2nd seed is going to end up playing either Miami or the Jets. The last two teams id want to face in Round 1. The Jets have the best defense in the AFC and can cause problems for any offense. The Dolphins can catch lightning in a bottle and take off at any point and have a dline that can get after the QB. Neither team has the horses to make a Superbowl run, but both sure as heck can steal a game vs. anyone in the AFC.

Corollary to 1. above (obvious, of course): You are 1 of 8 teams left at (your) start of the tournament rather than 1 of 14 (also meaning need to win one less game) - That is a huge advantage!

Edited December 19, 2022 by TheWei44

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

# 1 Seed will matter for three reasons in my opinion. 

 

1. The obvious which is a bye week and an extra week to get healthy. 

 

2. Avoiding the Chiefs and Bengals in Round 2. 

 

3. That 2nd seed is going to end up playing either Miami or the Jets. The last two teams id want to face in Round 1. The Jets have the best defense in the AFC and can cause problems for any offense. The Dolphins can catch lightning in a bottle and take off at any point and have a dline that can get after the QB. Neither team has the horses to make a Superbowl run, but both sure as heck can steal a game vs. anyone in the AFC.

 

I don't think Jets or NE will make it. My guess for the 3 wildcards is the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers. The Chargers never seem to live up to the hype they get but I would rather the Bills face the Ravens or Dolphins if the Bills go into the playoffs as the #2 seed. Herbert>>>>>LJ, Tua.

[strive_for_five_guy]

5 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

 

 

Yes it does assume that. But as the 2 or 3 your almost guaranteed playing 2 of: (Phins, Chargers, Bengals, KC). Possibly even 3 (Phins, Bengals, KC back to back to back would be brutal). Higher probability of only playing 1 of those as the 1 seed. It's the best chance to set up the easiest path forward matchup wise. 

 

 

Agree that if we end up the one seed, and it’s Chiefs/Bengals as 2 and 3, then at best we would play one of those teams, and it would be in the AFCCG.

[DrBob806]

3 hours ago, Georgia Bill said:

 

 

I don't see any realistic scenarios where the Chiefs could end at number 3 and have to go on the road to beat both the Bills and the Chiefs- which kind of sucks...

Lol yep. We "think" the Bills are SB ready yet fear the Chiefs. 

 

I get it. Mahomes is magical.