#1 Seed Will Be HUGE This Year

[mjt328]

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios.

With each passing week, it's becoming very clear.  Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else.  Even more than compared to previous seasons.

 

In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore.  We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out.  The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field.  The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again.  The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams.

 

Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round.  In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals.  The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

 

[Kaenon]

I think a free pass to the second round of the playoffs is a big advantage too.

[SoCal Deek]

Not to be a total contrarian but It’s a huge assumption to say the Titans or Jaguars are going to win their first round game just because it’s at home. Both of those teams will finish barely over .500.

[US Egg]

Billy sends a huge!

[Donuts and Doritos]

If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us)

 

That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year.

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Donuts and Doritos

[TH3]

This is Big News!!

[Greg S]

In the AFC it will be but, in the NFC, I don't think it's that important. Defense travels and SF could beat any team in any stadium with that defense. 

[H2o]

I've seen some people on here saying the seeding isn't that big of a deal, nor the extra week off. For us, it ABSOLUTELY would be a big deal. Home field as long as we are in it, an extra week of rest for our banged up players, and watching other teams knock the snot out of each other just to get to the 2nd round? Trying to downplay this scenario is uneducated. 

[Captain_Quint]

The season is definitely ending up more like how it was projected in the offseason. 

 

 

 

Bills - Chiefs - Bengals - Chargers are all hot right now and honestly, any of these 4 teams could represent the AFC and win the whole thing. 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Captain_Quint

[MrEpsYtown]

Honestly, the 2 seed winds up maybe playing the Dolphins and or the Chargers. Honestly i would prefer not to play the Dolphins a third time. Additionally, Herbert can be dominant, and their defense can be as well. If you can avoid that first round, that would be ideal. Obviously, home field is huge as well. 

[Greg S]

Just now, H2o said:

I've seen some people on here saying the seeding isn't that big of a deal, nor the extra week off. For us, it ABSOLUTELY would be a big deal. Home field as long as we are in it, an extra week of rest for our banged up players, and watching other teams knock the snot out of each other just to get to the 2nd round? Trying to downplay this scenario is uneducated. 

 

I don't want the Bills to play at KC for what seems like the 100th straight time. Also, if they have to face Burrow, I would prefer that one to be in OP as well.

[LabattBlue]

The #1 seed is a big deal to every playoff team every year…not just this year, and not just the Bills. 

[SCBills]

Agreed.  There are no cupcakes likely in this years AFC Playoffs.  

 

If a non-1 seed makes it to the Super Bowl, they will have gone through a gauntlet. 

 

Titans, Jets and Pats are likely the 3 "easy" games, IF any of them make it... not looking likely at this point.  Even Tennessee looks like they may get overtaken by the Jags.. because this is what the AFC needs.. another potentially elite QB.   

[HOUSE]

I just want to beat the Bears in Chicago 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

5 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us)

 

That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year.

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA

 

You’re assuming the Phins or Chargers don’t upset the Chiefs or Bengals.  If we’re the 1 seed, we will play the lowest seed left after the 1st round.  Lots of different scenarios, but there’s no debating that it would be clutch to get that first round bye.

[Buffalo03]

13 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios.

With each passing week, it's becoming very clear.  Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else.  Even more than compared to previous seasons.

 

In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore.  We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out.  The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field.  The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again.  The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams.

 

Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round.  In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals.  The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

 

This is how the Patriots went to a lot of their Super Bowls. They always had first round byes. They have never made a Super Bowl under Belichick any time they played wild card weekend. But they would seem to luck out quite frequently on their first opponent out of a bye. In 2011, they got Tim Tebow and the 8-8 Broncos after they upset the Steelers in the wild card. There was no chance in hell the Broncos were winning that game

[HopelessNJBuffaloFan]

Buffalo needs to beat the Bears. Do NOT get anymore injuries. Get the walking or crawling wounded healthy before we play Cincy!!!! If we go into Cincy playing like we did against the Fins, it is going to be a serious fight to win that game. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Having the one seed is a great advantage because you get a free wildcard win, get to play the lowest remaining seed to get to the championship game and your playoff games are at home.   However, you will likely have to beat KC in the playoffs.  Home or away that will be a challenge. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Top 2 teams should get a bye. Add another team to the playoffs. 

[Gugny]

43 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

The season is definitely ending up more like how it was projected in the offseason. 

 

 

 

Bills - Chiefs - Bengals - Chargers are all hot right now and honestly, any of these 4 teams could represent the AFC and win the whole thing. 

 

 

If SF makes it to the Super Bowl, I think only the Bills or Chiefs would be able to compete against that defense.

[Southern_Bills]

Thankfully for the Bills it's simple math to get the #1 seed. Win 3, take a week off and let opponents come to you.

 

Simple, but not easy. MNF against the Bengals will be huge, and honestly good for them, they get alot of bad games on Monday night.

 

Also the Patriots would love to kill our #1 seed on the final game, they will not go quietly, and I can't blame them.

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Top 2 teams should get a bye. Add another team to the playoffs. 

 

I hope not, I'd rather subtract a team. Bad teams are getting in as it is.

[Billsfan1972]

And last year Tenn had the bye & lost to Cincy & GB to SF.  

 

That bye week sometimes creates issues.

[Warriorspikes51]

IF the Bills are the 1 seed,  it's almost certain KC and CIN are #2 and #3.   

Assuming both of those teams win their wildcard games, the Bills would play the winner of the AFC South or the Ravens/Chargers/Dolphins/Patriots

CIN and KC playing each other in the Divisional round is ideal.
 

If the Bills are not the 1 seed, we will have to beat the Ravens/Chargers/Dolphins/Patriots and then play KC or CIN in the Divisional Round.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Warriorspikes51

[zow2]

I think the Chiefs will lose to either Seattle or  Vegas and Cinci will lose at NE or Balt. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, zow2 said:

I think the Chiefs will lose to either Seattle or  Vegas and Cinci will lose at NE or Balt. 

 

Seattle does have their playoff hopes on the line....but I'd like their chances a lot more if the game was in Seattle.

hopefully Vegas is still mathematically alive for that game.  Last year, it looked like they were dead and a bunch of things went their way to sneak in.
 

Cincy I could see losing at NE this week.  After Patriots were humiliated and playing for a wildcard spot 

[zow2]

I think the Bills know they need to win 11 straight games by any means necessary. 

 

I mean it’s obvious but that’s fact.  even losing one of these final regular season games probably sinks them.

[Warriorspikes51]

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And last year Tenn had the bye & lost to Cincy & GB to SF.  

 

That bye week sometimes creates issues.

 

The Titans last season had to be the worst 1 seed in the last decade. Their schedule was a joke and they were unworthy of that spot. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

Thankfully for the Bills it's simple math to get the #1 seed. Win 3, take a week off and let opponents come to you.

 

Simple, but not easy. MNF against the Bengals will be huge, and honestly good for them, they get alot of bad games on Monday night.

 

Also the Patriots would love to kill our #1 seed on the final game, they will not go quietly, and I can't blame them.

 

I hope not, I'd rather subtract a team. Bad teams are getting in as it is.

Why? I hate when a 10-11 win team misses the playoffs. Let 8 teams make it. 8 is perfect.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

You’re assuming the Phins or Chargers don’t upset the Chiefs or Bengals.  If we’re the 1 seed, we will play the lowest seed left after the 1st round.  Lots of different scenarios, but there’s no debating that it would be clutch to get that first round bye.

 

Yes, I'm obviously making a lot of assumptions.

 

 

But the way things are playing out, the Wild Card teams are going to be tougher than usual and the #4 seed is going to be way softer than usual (especially if it's the Titans and Ryan Tannehill is out).

 

[Southern_Bills]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? I hate when a 10-11 win team misses the playoffs. Let 8 teams make it. 8 is perfect.

 

Yeah, but when teams like the Steelers get in last year it diminishes the product of playoff football.

 

I'd rather have an outlier year where a 10 win team is left out than a year where a team under 500 gets on.

 

Just my opinion though.

[Jerome007]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

I just want to beat the Bears in Chicago 

 

Actually a sound take. But since the Bills are already in the playoffs, the staff has to balance between going hard for the #1 seed and resting starters. I'm with you though. Beat the Bears. Reevaluate.

 

Again after the Bengals. Depends on the Bills and if KC wins or loses.

[SCBills]

47 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Having the one seed is a great advantage because you get a free wildcard win, get to play the lowest remaining seed to get to the championship game and your playoff games are at home.   However, you will likely have to beat KC in the playoffs.  Home or away that will be a challenge. 

 

I'd agree that chances are likely KC is still going to be a game we have to win regardless of seeding... but if we can get the 1, I'm not sold that KC beats Chargers/Dolphins in the WC and then the Bengals.   Do I think they will, yes... but not if they keep playing like they've been playing.  

 

They are a lot like us right now, but with a worse defense.  Mahomes/Kelce and some decent guys.   Sounds similar to Allen/Diggs and some decent guys.  

 

Neither team has multiple gamebreakers like the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers do. 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by SCBills

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I want to have the bye week, force KC to play and then if they win then play them in BUF.

They're the team I fear most in the playoffs until we beat them. That offense has been unstoppable since going into SF 8 weeks ago and putting up 44 pts and 529 yards. In that time they've averaged 465 yards a game. We need every advantage we can get against them, and without turnovers, they're tough to even slow down.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

46 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

IF the Bills are the 1 seed,  it's almost certain KC and CIN are #2 and #3.   

Assuming both of those teams win their wildcard games, the Bills would play the winner of the AFC South or the Ravens/Chargers/Dolphins/Patriots

CIN and KC playing each other in the Divisional round is ideal.
 

If the Bills are not the 1 seed, we will have to beat the Ravens/Chargers/Dolphins/Patriots and then play KC or CIN in the Divisional Round.

 

 

Cincy or baltimore wins the north, other is a WC.

 

I'd say based on schedule - only 1 of jets/phins/patriots makes it.  Jags are playing well but i just see them doing something dumb and losing to the texans or something.  

 

Raiders have a really tough schedule the rest of the way but they literally play everyone close.  And i would LOVE to see them beat KC week 18.  

[zow2]

46 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Seattle does have their playoff hopes on the line....but I'd like their chances a lot more if the game was in Seattle.

hopefully Vegas is still mathematically alive for that game.  Last year, it looked like they were dead and a bunch of things went their way to sneak in.
 

Cincy I could see losing at NE this week.  After Patriots were humiliated and playing for a wildcard spot 

 

Even if Vegas is cooked i think their Super Bowl will be that KC game, therefore they will show up regardless.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

I would not count on this being the case. The AFC  South winner is more likely to be upset by one of the wild cards. They’ll actually probably be a Home underdog so from the Vegas perspective, it wouldn’t even be an upset. So it’s more likely the one seed would be playing the five seed. Or the six or seven seed should the second or third seed get upset.

[Royale with Cheese]

The Chiefs are not winning out.  They're going to drop at least 1 in the last 3.

[Boatdrinks]

It’s an advantage to be sure, but not the be all end all. Plenty of teams have won SuperBowls without it. Only one team will get it , and I’m pretty sure the other teams won’t decide they may as well skip the playoffs this year. So much hand wringing over this topic around here. The fact is the Bills have it at the moment, but their remaining schedule doesn’t favor them being in that spot when week 18 concludes. Some fans seem to think they can’t win without it. Guess they’d rather skip the playoffs if the Bills aren’t the #1 seed. 

[Greg S]

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Cincy or baltimore wins the north, other is a WC.

 

I'd say based on schedule - only 1 of jets/phins/patriots makes it.  Jags are playing well but i just see them doing something dumb and losing to the texans or something.  

 

Raiders have a really tough schedule the rest of the way but they literally play everyone close.  And i would LOVE to see them beat KC week 18.  

 

I think the Jets are toast. Yesterday's loss really hurt them. Mike White is still not cleared to play. They also have a short week as they play the Jags this Thursday. Wilson is getting killed here with the NY media and fanbase today. They most likely have to win out to have any shot and does anyone think they can do that with Wilson. I think the Jags beat them this week.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I would not count on this being the case. The AFC  South winner is more likely to be upset by one of the wild cards. They’ll actually probably be a Home underdog so from the Vegas perspective, it wouldn’t even be an upset. So it’s more likely the one seed would be playing the five seed. Or the six or seven seed should the second or third seed get upset.

 

I just ran the playoff simulator with my best guesses and got Chargers at Jacksonville.  I'd give Jacksonville a shot there.  

 

Also got Ravens at Chiefs and Dolphins at Bengals.  Yea.. avoiding WC Weekend in the AFC is a big deal.  Those are some potentially fantastic games.